Health Care, unemployment, IPCC, Witch hunts, and much more

Mail 713 Friday, February 17, 2012

3D Printing

Report from the Legions

Snopes

Kaiser

Space Access

 

and much more

 

Printed jaw lets woman swallow again

Jerry

We knew 3D printing was coming. And now it’s officially here. An 83-year-old woman was given a replacement mandible from a 3D printer. She becomes the first patient ever to be fitted with a printed lower jaw:

http://www.reghardware.com/2012/02/06/3d_printed_jaw_replacement_helps_grandmother_eat_again/print.html

I wonder how soon we’ll see 3D printers making scaffolding for cells, so new hearts and such can simply be built. Avoid the ‘Gift From Earth’ phenomenon.

Ed

The advance of 3D printing to become what Minsky postulated as a “Thingmaker” back in 1975 is astonishing. And it continues. Moreover, the printed plastic model can be used to make a mold which can be used for casting the object in metal or other such media. The potential is enormous.

‘What I saw bore no resemblance to rosy official statements by U.S. military leaders about conditions on the ground.’

<http://armedforcesjournal.com/2012/02/8904030>

Roland Dobbins

Yeah.

Snopes

— I am curious about your "Snopes has agendas I do not share" comment. Can you elaborate? I respect you, and I respect Snopes, or at least I did.

M

Nothing special. They take a pretty standard media liberal view when there is any political controversy, and they will sometimes certify as "fact" things that are political assertions, and seem to have a far higher standard of "fact’ when the assertion is conservative while assuming the truth of Keynsian economics and such.

They’re ok on a lot of stuff, and serve a useful purpose, but they do have an agenda one should be aware of. I’m not slamming them. There are far worse “fact checking” outfits that are simply arms of one political view.

"The danger is that there’ll be winners …"

Dr. Pournelle —

I came across this today and thought it made a good point about "dumbing down" public schools.

Dumbing down of state education has made Britain more unequal than 25 years ago http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/9082053/Dumbing-down-of-state-education-has-made-Britain-more-unequal-than-25-years-ago.html

"Thanks to the wholesale dumbing down of state education, Britain is now more unequal than it was 25 years ago. The progressive custodians of public education have succeeded in entrenching poverty and preserving privilege – all in the name of equality. As an illustration of the law of unintended consequences, it could not be bettered. "

Pieter

The same is true in the United States. We are developing full caste systems. Those who can try to send their children to private schools to shield them from the horror. And the beat goes on.

Kaiser

Dr. Pournelle-

I pretty much grew up with Kaiser, beginning ca 1954, and in my young adulthood I had a similar vision of turning all healthcare in the country over to them. Later, geographical considerations meant that we couldn’t participate with Kaiser, but my opinion remained unchanged.

When Kaiser opened a hospital locally and again became an option, through my wife’s work, we went back to it. However, through the circumstances of their taking in a very large increase in new membership locally and a rather insensitive administrator, we found our experience quite different than expected and we left as soon as possible. More recently we have returned and are well satisfied now that local growing pains have apparently passed. So, yes, scaling up rapidly would present a considerable challenge.

Paul

We have received a number of views of Kaiser, mostly positive.

Kaiser’s not the panacea

Dr. Pournelle:

I agree that Kaiser-Permanente can offer fine health care . . . if they want you.

I was a Kaiser client for almost 40 years: under my father’s employer we were one of the first families covered when K-P first expanded into Cleveland. I chose K-P when I entered the workforce, then under my wife’s coverage when another employer of mine did not offer its plan.

Later, when she changed employers and was not offered its plan, we were so satisfied with it’s preventive-care that we tried to get individual coverage which we would pay ourselves. After decades of "customer" loyalty, we were told that because we were now trying to join as individuals wth the pre-existing conditions — that Kaiser had diagnosed — they would not offer us coverage.

We are now covered by United Healthcare as the insurer from my wife’s employer and receive healthcare through the Cleveland Clinic Foundation. We find both the care and insurance to be more flexible and somewhat better than K-P.

This isn’t sour grapes, since my father, until his death, had K-P coverage and received excellent and comprehensive treatment. It’s just well to remember that K-P is a business, like other health insurers, and will only cover young healthy people unless you are part of group coverage.

Pete Nofel

"It ain’t fair? Hey pal, ‘fair’ is where you buy funnel cakes."

I am told that the Kaiser organization is different in different places, and I can only say that my experience with the Southern California Kaiser including San Diego and Lancaster has been positive. What most impresses me is that the personnel have been almost universally cheerful, polite, and helpful, and generally competent; and I am pretty familiar with clinical procedures. As to their selectivity, we tried for years to get on with Kaiser before an enrollment opportunity opened up in the 1980’s. At the time we had the four boys as well as Roberta and me. We were accepted and have been there ever since. Given my medical history I am sure I would not be acceptable to any insurance program now, so I am very careful to keep up my copayments and the minimal dues we owe on Medicare Advantage.

Without Kaiser we would probably be dead; I doubt I could afford the treatments I have needed. I also note that they do a pretty good job of using technology to reduce costs and increase productivity, and their preventive medicine courses have proven to be useful – I took the diabetes course with a rather cynical attitude, but I was won over. I learned a good bit and, as Dr. Johnson observed, where I may not have needed education I certainly needed reminding. All my experience has been with Southern California, but after thirty years of my wife and myself, and over a decade of having the boys under the Kaiser system, I have no real complaints, and my few suggestions having to do with small computers and records management have either been adopted or done better.

As to finding a group, that has always been a real problem for free lance writers. Various writer organizations have tried to form medical coverage groups; Science Fiction Writers of America tried over the years starting with before I was President in the 70’s; we never got a large enough group to be of much interest to anyone. The United States system is geared to employer-provided medical insurance. We went from employer to individual memberships by way of COBRA, which was costly, but we thought worth it.

Supreme Court

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/02/supreme-court-justice-robbed-by-machete-weilding-intruder-in-carribean/

Wonder if he is a conservative now?

A Conservative is a Liberal who has been mugged.

A Liberal is a Conservative who has been harassed by the police.

“Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer was robbed at knife point in his vacation home on the Caribbean island of Nevis Feb. 9,  according to a court spokeswoman, although he’s not the first Supreme Court  justice become a victim of crime. In 2004, Justice David Souter was mugged while jogging, and in 1966, Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg had her purse snatched.

“Breyer was with his wife,  Joanna Breyer, and guests when an intruder armed with a machete broke into their  home. The intruder  took $1,000 but no one was hurt.” [snip]

B

Reality does have a way of changing one’s opinions. Into each reign some life must fall…

McMartin Case

Jerry,

I lived in Manhattan Beach during the McMartin case hysteria. It got so bad that I made a decision that if I was alone and children approached me, I would beat a hasty retreat.

In retrospect, even two adults approached by a group of children could still have been caught up in the hysteria of the day.

I hope to never have to live in an atmosphere like that again.

Regards, Charles Adams, Bellevue, NE

The great child molestation terror extended far beyond Southern California. There was reputed to be a circle of witches and ritual molestations in the State of Washington and a number of people were harassed and jailed over what turned out to be allegations of crimes of which there was no proof other than the allegation. The same happened in New England.

For a long time the voodoo sciences held that children just couldn’t make up stories of being sexually molested, and they often wouldn’t tell you if they had been. This led to “professionals” going over and over stories and gestures and suggestions and imputations until the kids figured out what the adult “professional” wanted the child to say; whereupon lives were ruined. In the McMartin case it got to the point where the police seriously investigated reports of dead horses buried on the school grounds, and it was seriously believed that teachers in the schools transported the children to Forest Lawn Cemetary – in Glendale – from Manhattan Beach, there to witness burials and funerals to show them what would happen to them if they told. Since the children seemed to be terrified, this was taken to be, if not true, then significant. Years later the children, now grown, said that all this was suggested to them by the social workers, and the kids wanted to get out of the interrogation rooms. Videos of some of the sessions showed interrogation techniques that would have been illegal if used on adults. The only way out of the endless harassment was to tell the social workers something awful about someone; when the children realized that, some of them made up stories, often really awful stories.

The witch hunts went on for years, and resulted in union rules for teachers that made it nearly impossible to fire a teacher based on child accusations, and almost impossible even when there was physical evidence. And, as I have said here before, one case came apart when the defense lawyer was able to get one of the accusing children to “remember” being abused by the judge presiding in the case, when the judge had never seen the child before the case came to trial. Over time the with hunts abated, but a number of lives were destroyed in the process –

And after the era of wild accusations, it became more difficult to save children from genuine child molestors, who became quite clever in their techniques. It remains a challenge to our judicial system. The rise of DNA evidence has simplified some of this, of course.

Space Access ’12 Conference – April 12-14 – Phoenix Arizona

SA ’12 will be the next round of Space Access Society’s long-running annual get-together for people seriously interested in the technology, business, and politics of radically cheaper space transportation.

Conference location is the Grace Inn, 10831 South 51st Street, Phoenix, AZ. (For room reservations, call 800 843-6010 or 480 893-3000, and mention "space access" to get our discount $69/night breakfast-included

rate.)

Conference registration is $120 in advance, $140 at the door, student

rate $40 either way. We’re not set up to accept credit cards in

advance – for advance registration you need to paper-mail us a check or money order. Include your name, the affiliation (if any) you want listed on your badge, and your email address. Make the check out to "Space Access ’12", and mail it to Space Access ’12, PO Box 16034, Phoenix AZ 85011.

Confirmed Presentations as of 2/18/12

Altius Space Machines/Jon Goff

Armadillo Aerospace

Matt Cannella, student, "HySoR Hybrid Sounding Rocket"

Commercial Spaceflight Federation

FAA AST

Frontier Astronautics/Timothy Bendel

Jeff Foust

Garvey Space

JP Aerospace/John Powell

Lasermotive/Jordin Kare

Liftport

Clark Lindsey

mv2space/Max Vozoff

NASA Ames/Bruce Pittman, "Barriers And Opportunities For Reusable Launch Vehicles"

NASA OCT/Dr. Lagudava Kubendran

NextGen Space/Charles Miller

Panel: Newspace Lessons Learned – Gary Hudson, Henry Spencer, Henry Vanderbilt Team Phoenicia/Will Baird Space Frontier Foundation/Ryan McLinko Space Studies Institute/Gary Hudson, President Speedup/Robert Steinke Henry Spencer, "Beyond Chemical Rockets: Overview and Near-Term Options"

and "Lessons From Smallsats for Small Launchers"

Stratofox Aerospace Tracking & Recovery Team/Ian Kluft United Launch Alliance/Frank Zegler Unreasonable Rocket/Paul Breed Ventions/Adam London XCOR Aerospace/Mark Street

Stay tuned to http://www.space-access.org for more as we fill out the

SA’12 program.

I always enjoy the Space Access conferences. I haven’t been to one in a while, and it doesn’t look like I’ll get to this one, but if you’re interested in the subject it’s one of the better conferences to go to. Learn what is going on in private space…

Epic Film

I am not sure if you’ve seen Excalibur: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NOqlV4Le9Tk

It was made in 1981; it is an epic film with Shakespearean actors — you would probably recognize many of them, and I am sure you will note Patrick Stewart. This film is more than a film; like many films it contains symbolism from the mystery schools and underlying patterns for the initiate. I highly recommend it.

—–

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

I saw Excalibur when it was first run, and I have seen it several times since. It does a very good job with the Arthurian legend, which is one of my favorite stories.

Women in combat —

I read many years ago the account of a Marine unit in Desert Storm that marched a long way with heavy packs in a short time and then fought – and defeated – an entrenched unit of Revolutionary Guards. The exact figures – distance, time and load – have flown from my memory and may have been exaggerated anyway. The point is that any male Marine would have been expected to be able to do that.

The Corps can take any young man who is not physically disqualified – meaning most any average young man – and turn him into a Marine who can do that kind of thing. There are, no doubt, some women who can be so trained, but no one suggests that the average woman can, no matter how healthy and fit.

Richard White

Austin, Texas

—

"One of the penalties for refusing to participate in politics is that you end up being governed by your inferiors."

–Plato

I find it curious that it is a matter of equality and equity that women be considered by fiat fit for any military position that a man can hold. We don’t often think of men as having a right to conceive and bear children. My daughter was a very good intelligence officer, but she will be the first to tell you she wasn’t up to many of the field exercises of line combat units. Why should she be? But she could run a Hawk company well enough.

Unemployment

In reference to the question of what claim an unemployed person has on the income of other people, it might be relevant to note the difference between base unemployment benefits and extended unemployment benefits. For at least the base period the term used is unemployment insurance (UI). Here in for 2011 Ohio, as in most states, the employer pays a tax {premium) equal to between 0.7% to 9.6% based on the unemployment experience of their employees of the first $9,000 in wages for each employee. Also there is a Federal Unemployment Tax Act (FUCA) tax of 6.2% (6.0% after 7/1/2011) on the first $7000. of each employees wages. The FUCA payments can be reduced from 6.2%(6.0%) by a credit of up to 5.4% if the employee has timely pay his state unemployment taxes and the State has not borrowed money from the Federal government unemployment trust fund. Currently employers 21 states have the credit available reduced from between 0.3% to 0.9% since they owe the federal unemployment fund.

In good times the Federal and state unemployment taxes tend to bring on a surplus, and there is usually political pressure from businesses to reduce the unemployment tax rate rather then build up a surplus for poor economic times. In bad economic times the funds run a deficit and often require the states to borrow form the federal trust fund.

The states generally set the maximum weeks of coverage usually between 24 and 26 weeks based on employment history and the benefit amounts. Normally being terminated for cause, quitting or being involved in a labor dispute would make a person ineligible for benefits. In Ohio, the benefits are set at 50% of earning up to $400 per week with no dependents and $529 per week with 3 dependents. So even given the fact that unemployed person does not have to pay Social Security and Medicare on these payments, he is going to see reduction of about 40% in his income. Probably the person is going to have to dip into his savings or reduce his life style by cutting expenses. That would not encourage lingering in the system.

The programs are involuntary in the same way that Social Security and Medicare taxes are involuntary. While the employer pays the tax, like the employer part of the Social Security and Medicare taxes, economists generally treat these costs as being borne by the employee, since the employer reduces what he is willing to pay in wages to the employee.

In this insurance sense, the unemployed has a claim in the same way someone would if he paid his fire and hazard insurance premiums, and then his house was destroyed. Of course, there is room to disagree on whether unemployment insurance should be an involuntary program. However, the base program is managed mainly by the states and backed up by the federal government. This is opposed as to Social Security and Medicare that are Federal programs.

Unemployment benefits and taxes tend to help automatically stabilize the economic. In good times as wages raise, they take additionally money out of the system help keeping inflation in control and keeping the economy from overheating. In poor times as wages drop the taxes drop, and as unemployment increases benefits feed money into the economy helping to stimulate the system. All without Congress or any state legislatures having to take action.

Now the federal extended benefits that can last up to 52 or even 99 weeks are a difference matter. Those cannot be considered insurance, and it would be a stretch to claim any entitlement to receive them. The base design of the system does not coverage the cost of those extra benefits. The extended benefits should be considered more of a economic stimulus measure trying to improve the economy. One way the costs could be covered by increased FUCA and state taxes on employers after the economic downturn ends. Similar to the way insurance premiums on homes might increase after a region has suffered a natural disaster. This would maintain more of an insurance aspect. Or they could be covered by general federal tax receipts similar to the way a natural disaster might be handled. This would make it more of an emergency response to a economic disaster. Political arguments of course can be made over the necessity of a stimulus and the correct form. Keynes once argued that paying to bury jars of money and letting people dig them up or get paid to dig them up would be a good a stimulus system as any other.

If you grant that economic stimulus is necessary, the extended unemployment benefits do take advantage of an existing system to distribute the money so a new bureaucracy does not have to be created. It also passes the money to people that are likely to need to spend the money on goods and services creating additional demand rather than to someone who would save the money or pay down existing debts. On the negative side, it may keep people unemployed longer than they normally would be as they might continue to hold out for higher paying jobs instead of taking a lower paying job that might be available. The 40% cut in income while on benefits may help to minimize this.

Kenneth Klute

Unemployment insurance is entirely different from “extended” unemployment benefits. Winston Churchill was a strong advocate of “insurance, insurance, insurance” as have been many conservative theorists and politicians. That kind of insurance is a form of compulsory savings of course, and is often rejected by many libertarians as an interference with freedom of action, but the notion of unemployment insurance is sound enough.

The big problem is that as productivity goes up, the need for unskilled labor falls. Since this is not Lake Wobegon, half our children are below average. Jobs for the below average become more scarce. One traditional job for the dull normal members of the population is personal domestic service – making life easier for the employed and productive (as well as for the idle rich). We have built a number of social restrictions on domestic service as a career. Given the way the economy and technology are going, we may well have to rethink that.

I would think it more dignified to be a scullery maid than simply to be on the dole. Clearly that is not a majority opinion.

poverty and unemployment

Dear Dr Pournelle,

I was astonishingly moved by the clarity and straightforwardness of your discussion of poverty and unemployment. Yes, if you make something easier or more profitable, then all else equal you will have more of it, and conversely. How is it that so many people fail to see that? I’ve always been inclined to give my liberal friends a break and assume that they are thinking with their hearts and not their brains, but what about those in positions of responsibility, who one would think would have reality rubbed in their faces every day?

It saddens me to wonder if they *do* see it, but cynically pretend they don’t because keeping the populace dependent enhances their own importance. This thought smacks of paranoia, and I hate it, but how else to explain their ongoing blindness? Our leaders are not stupid people, but if they were sincere about public service they would surely not act the way they do.

David Wall

One of the characteristics of Gnosticism is that Gnostics – such as American Liberals and American neo-conservatives – insist that they be judged on their intentions, not on the results of their policies.

Regulated Insurance Benefits =/= Entitlements….

Your commentary,

The position he “retreated” to allows him to mandate that insurance companies must now provide free contraception to anyone who asks for it. No copayment, no increase in premium: just free. Of course this is going to be challenged, but the President has just asserted a right to command private companies to give out entitlements. Women can demand The Pill.

Isn’t quite accurate, is it. We’re not talking about, as you say, "anyone who asks for it", we’re talking about premium paying insured customers, being assured of a minimum benefit.

I’m sure you understand that *ALL* insurance companies are regulated, and it’s confusing why this particular regulation would be of any interest, other than to those who would interject themselves in the *private* relationship between a patient and their physician. And I’m kind of tired of the busy-bodies who think that other people’s healthcare is their business. I believe in the past, the common reaction would be to tell them to "Mind their own business", but today we put them on TV…

Regards,

Mike Lieman

Come now. If I say that I am an insurance customer and therefore I am entitled to a whole bunch of benefits that were not in the package I bought, or that you cover some conditions that you specifically exempted when I bought the policy, and that you do not raise the premium nor drop me, how is that not demanding a gift? As to minding one’s own business, I am with you in spades, but tell me, when I am taxed to pay for the benefits has it not become my business?

Of course insurance companies are and should be regulated, but when they are told what premiums to charge for which service and who must be admitted, that is no longer insurance regulation.

Subsidizing Behavior

Has anyone evaluated the cost of the behavior subsidy against smoking? I imagine that the pension overhang that threatens almost every big public and private employer has been impacted by the legions of Americans that have quit or never started smoking cigarettes.

P.S. Love your "fiction".

scott brown

We have not got that cynical yet, have we? Clearly if we gave booze and cigarettes away at the fire stations, we would have fewer people live to old age and thus fewer to support in their last years; but I do not think we have got there yet. When we do get to that point, I doubt we will go to the expense of providing them the means for self destruction. There will be more direct action.

Dr Pournelle,

Regarding “this respiratory thing that is so severe I don’t want to call it a cold, but I don’t have a better name”, Ogden Nash’s Common Cold comes to mind:

A common cold, gadzooks, forsooth!

Ah, yes. And Lincoln was jostled by Booth;

Don Juan was a budding gallant,

And Shakespeare’s plays show signs of talent;

The Arctic winter is fairly coolish,

And your diagnosis is fairly foolish.

Oh what a derision history holds

For the man who belittled the Cold of Colds!

Wishing you a speedy recovery,

—Joel Salomon

Thanks

‘I don’t claim that I know precisely whether the sun is responsible for a 40, 50 or 60 percent share of global warming. But it’s nonsense for the IPCC to claim that the sun has nothing to do with it.’

<http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,druck-813814,00.html>

——

Roland Dobbins

Precisely. I do not know why it was warmer in the Viking period, or why it got colder after 1300, or why the current warming from 1800 took place, but it is pretty clear that the IPCC doesn’t know either, which is why some of the IPCC leaders tried to hide the Medieval Warm period. Their models don’t allow it to have happened.

What Did People Do in a Medieval City?

<http://www.svincent.com/MagicJar/Economics/MedievalOccupations.html>

Roland Dobbins

Cool!

Cool Idea

Jerry–

You and I have corresponded on updating the story in some of your classics (like Lucifer’s Hammer)…Cringely has a great idea (link below); allow the original and update to exist side by side in the eFormat! Considering I own a copy of the Hammer (about a 1980 paperback edition, purchased for $1.69 at a used book store), and just bought it (again) in Kindle format…You could now easily give it a tune-up: Russians still work; the venerable International Harvester TravelAll probably gets updated to be an Explorer, Durango, or Suburban; IBM Printouts on desks get turned into *something else*– especially since I believe my 22 year old son (who loved the book, btw) probably has no idea of what a fan-fold green-bar print out looks like, so the mental image is lost on that generation.

Again, my kudo’s for an exceptional book, that I continue to enjoy in multiple formats!

http://www.cringely.com/2012/02/what-the-dickens-accidental-empires-rebooted/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+ICringely+%28I%2C+Cringely%29&utm_content=Google+Feedfetcher

Steve Walbrun

Thanks for the kind words. Alas we have no plans at all to update Hammer; it stands as written. I just reread it and it is still a pretty good story. Think of it as alternate history…