Fairness, cheap gas and more Mail 20110921

Mail 693 Monday, September 19, 2011

· Gas below $2

· More letters from England

·

45% of Canadians illiterate????!

How can anyone believe that 45% of Canadians are illiterate?

socialism is the cause?

Has the author ever travelled to Canada? Doubtful

If you believe this, us good old dumb boys will sell you acres of oilsands at $100 / acre since we have so much

Stephen crawford

I don’t believe that either. The piece referred to Quebec, not Canada, but I doubt that anything like half the Quebecois are illiterate. The linked article says:

By sheer coincidence (or perhaps not ) a few days later, front page news in Montreal’s newspaper was a grim statistic: 50% of Quebec’s population are virtually illiterate, meaning they cannot grasp more than simple statements.  The percentage is not much better for Canada as a whole, standing at 45%.  The numbers should not be that surprising, since some 55% boys and 45% girls drop out of high schools in Quebec.

My guess is that it’s an exaggeration, but perhaps not. I am not familiar with Quebec; and of course it’s a judgment call when you deal with “virtually illiterate”. By my lights, literate means to be able to look at the written text and say it. English is slightly less phonetic than French, but both are phonetic languages (as opposed to Chinese with is ideographic).

Subject: Price of Gas

Jerry-

I predict that the price of gasoline will be $2.00/gallon by January 1, 2012.

Three driving forces:

Over the next 5 years, perhaps 15% to 20% of the commercial truck fleet will convert to natural gas. See:

http://www.tulsaworld.com/business/article.aspx?subjectid=49&articleid=20110412_49_E4_CUTLIN746179

Gaddafi can’t hang on forever, and something that can’t go on forever will stop. I expect that to happen in the short term.

The petrostates will need to pump oil to buy the grain they need to keep their subject populations fed. This will exert significant

downward pressure on the price of oil. In a battle between OPEC and hunger, hunger wins.

-Steve

Want to bet?

Jerry Pournelle

Chaos Manor

Price of Gas

Jerry-

$2/gallon gasoline by January 1, 2012 still seems like a good bet to me. Note that the increasing production of oil from the Canadian Tar Sands is pushing the cost of WTI down under $90/barrel. This is hard to explain on the basis of pipeline capacity and storage constraints as is often said. Why aren’t the Canadians decreasing their production? I expect that the Canadians are pumping that oil as fast as they can because of the risk of a drop in oil price. At some point the Chinese housing bubble will burst and world demand will drop. Petrobras is expanding production of their huge proven reserves, fracked oil is now ramping up in the US, and natural gas is expanding. These factors will play out over years and decades, but their effect on oil prices will be much earlier. The high price of oil is artificially maintained by the cartel and can not be sustained in the face of a long term expectation that prices will drop. A recent prediction is that the US will become the #1 producer of "oil-like fluids" by 2017.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/8367#more

http://www.stockhouse.com/Columnists/2011/Sept/7/Best-companies-in-Brent-crude-oil

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/09/21/another-big-reason-for-natural-gas-to-pick-up.aspx

http://www.suntimes.com/business/7772009-420/gas-prices-slip-in-chicago-area-may-even-go-lower.html

$2/gallon gas by January 1, 2012. What shall we wager?

-Steve

Perhaps so. You make an interesting case, and it is not a matter I have much thought about. On the other hand, I have great confidence in the ability of the Federal Government to get in the gears.

Letters from England

You want it bad; you get it bad

Expensive (half billion pound) fiasco: http://preview.tinyurl.com/6azbm9f http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-14974552

UK police informant system in disarray: http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2011/sep/20/ukcrime-metropolitan-police

—

Harry Erwin

Stories of interest

Analysis of the UK fire service fiasco: http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/09/20/fire_service_469_million_flop_caused_by_it_illiteracy/ Full report: http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201012/cmselect/cmpubacc/1397/139702.htm

Guess who was responsible for this attack: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-14982906

—

Harry Erwin

Only in Europe

Deportation of rapists violates their right to a family life: <http://preview.tinyurl.com/64jq34t http://preview.tinyurl.com/6emwhfh

Economy enters dangerous phase here. (America is slightly better off) http://preview.tinyurl.com/5r2u45z http://preview.tinyurl.com/5w76pe2 http://preview.tinyurl.com/6jsghmf http://preview.tinyurl.com/675u95t

Police back off http://preview.tinyurl.com/6huj8hq http://preview.tinyurl.com/69stgjg http://preview.tinyurl.com/5uwtgfs http://preview.tinyurl.com/3uhzeds http://preview.tinyurl.com/6z7xe77

The reason for using the Official Secrets Act was because there’s no public interest exception.

—

Harry Erwin

See <http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/09/21/profs_school_cameron/>. Fields no longer to be supported include pure mathematics, applied mathematics, fluid dynamics, number theory, geometry, astronomy, and theoretical physics.

—

Harry Erwin, PhD

A bit more on the maths story

There’s a Guardian story with a bit more detail. http://preview.tinyurl.com/6yuh9m6 This is the second shoe. The first shoe was three years ago when the UK Government decided to halve its research funding for mathematics. I had noticed that the UK seemed to be losing ground in science during my summer visit, and this just confirms that the UK Government has decided it’s too expensive to keep up with the rest of the first world in science and math. I wouldn’t recommend that path to Americans–it leads to a very bad place.

—

Harry Erwin, PhD

"If you can’t be a good example, then you’ll just have to be a horrible warning." (Catherine Aird)

Of course the way we compete with the rest of the First World is even more expensive and probably not all that much more effective. We spend enormous sums teaching Algebra II to dull normal hich school students, and then we furnish bonehead math courses at Universities which keep raising their tuition costs.

I have a new campaign for public schools: at least half the publc money should be spent on students who are not discipline problems and are of average or above intelligence. That, at least, would mean that some of the money might actually be invested in activites that might possibly generate a return on that investment. In the real world, it’s unlikely that university education for more than 20% of the population will do much good, but we could certainly profit from investment in various trade education and apprenticeship programs. Unlikely, of course. Fairness trumps investment until you run out of other people’s money to be fair with.

As to the subject of federalism, I agree that the smallest appropriate federal government is a great idea and key to the overall success of the US. And, yes, I will agree that the current federal government is too big.

However, we must remember that the major reason that the federal government has gotten involved in issues is because of inappropriate/dangerous conduct by the states. Do we really believe that Brown v. Board of Education was a bad idea?

In today’s world where everything is connected, for example, how can we let the individual states regular food safety? If I buy chicken that happens to come from Arkansas, should I just assume that it is safe? You know that the states in the south will never fund their local governments at an appropriate level to provide some key government services.

While I voted for Obama, I’m also deeply disappointed in how he has worked out. However, for god’s sakes, if Michelle Bachman becomes president we are on a very slippery slope downhill. No mandate for vaccines? I have a dear friend who got cervical cancer, recovered, but is now 38 and will never have a child. The HPV vaccine would have easily taken care of that if it was around when she was at the right age.

Living in a community means a certain sharing of rights AND obligations. Lets not simply look at the Republican Party talking points and at what Rush says and forget that there might be some reasonable people who have reasonably differing ideas.

Respectfully,

Alex Thurber

Los Altos, Calif.

Note that a chicken shipped across state lines is certainly in interstate commerce, and thus subject to regulation by Congress. We had agricultural inspection programs for interstate commerce for a very long time. But when Congress claims to be able to set minimum wages for window washers on a building that might rent to a firm that might engage in interstate commerce, perhaps things have gone a bit far?

It is legitimate to open the whole subject of federal/state relations for new debate; of course that won’t happen. Just as any cut in federal spending means that veteran pensions will not be paid, or the food inspectors will be closed, but there is never any discussion of bunny inspectors.

There are certainly matters that Washington does better than state and local government, but the automatic assumption that a federal bureaucracy will do a better job of developing and enforcing policies on everything from vaccinations to raising rabbits does not seem wise to me.

The fact that your friend did not seek out and get the vaccine and then developed cervical cancer does not settle the question of individual rights vs. public rights in the case of a non-casually transmitted disease. I am far more comfortable about a federal mandate for smallpox vaccination than I am about mandatory vaccinations for STD’s; indeed, while I am willing to contribute to help those who cannot afford vaccinations against STD, I am not at all certain that I am obliged to force anyone to be given the shots. I certainly find nothing in the Constitution that gives such powers to Congress. To the states, yes; and of course to Congress as governor of the District of Columbia; but for Congress to say that a girl in San Francisco must have a vaccination against cervical cancer before she reaches the age of sexual activity seems a bit far out.

It may well be that you are more qualified to determine what are and are not key government services for Memphis and Vicksburg, but I would not make the same claim for myself.

News note

Jerry,

In a report on this year’s Forbes 400 on the ABC news network at 1300 ET today, the report noted that the cumulative wealth of the Forbes 400, at $1.5 trillion, was "about what President Obama wants to get from increased taxes on millionaires over the next ten years." [Take that as a close paraphrase; the wording may not be exact.]

One could also note that it is less than months of an Obama deficit.

If the Government confiscates it…well, taking that much cash out of the system is going to significantly devalue the other assets. For example, of all of Buffets holdings in Berkshire Hathaway were sold, the stock price would probably drop between 50 and 75%; so instead of $1.5 trillion, the government has maybe $1 trillion left as cash. And then what do we do when we run out of that cash.

J

Socialism is great until you run out of other people’s money. Rule of law often seems heartless and unfair. But if the goal is to equalize incomes, I would rather confiscate the money from people like Niven and drop it from airplanes for random pickup than take it to give to those who hired the tax collectors. This is not about fairness. It is about maintaining the 7% exponential growth of government.

Re: Discrepancy of Wealth

I returned to your Sept 19th post on discrepancy of wealth and re-read it when Glenn Reynolds linked to it. One thing that always strikes me, when I read about calls from super-wealthy individuals for higher taxes, is that the tax vehicle they generally have in mind is the income tax. Bearing in mind that a good working definition of "income" is "new money," how altruistic is it, really, for holders of established wealth, such as Warren Buffet, to advocate a confiscatory tax on new money?

BigLeeH

Lee Haslup

The notion is that those who are successful must in fairness contribute to the welfare of those who tried and failed, and also to those who never tried at all. That’s fairness.

Obama Calls It: Said his presidency would result in ‘rise of oceans beginning to slow’ — And By 2011, Sea Level Drops!

http://www.climatedepot.com/a/12910/Planet-Healer-Obama-Calls-It-In-2008-he-declared-his-presidency-would-result-in-the-rise-of-the-oceans-beginning-to-slow–And-By-2011-Sea-Level-Drops

Planet Healer Obama Calls It: In 2008, he declared his presidency would result in ‘the rise of the oceans beginning to slow’ — And By 2011, Sea Level Drops!

Obama ‘presided over what some scientists are terming an ‘historic decline" in global sea levels’ — ‘Obama should declare ‘mission accomplished’ and take credit!’

President Barack Obama can take a bow. As Obama struggles with poor polling numbers, persistent high unemployment, the possibly of a primary challenge within his own party and a stagnant economy saddled with massive deficits and debts, one area where he can claim success is his prediction that he would slow sea level rise.

Stupid FBI/cop tricks

"Police kick in door in confusion over suicide kit.

The FBI message to police about the purchase of the gear failed to mention it was bought _seven months ago_."

http://www.registerguard.com/web/newslocalnews/26910049-41/kit-police-suicide-springfield-fbi.html.csp

We are appalled but hardly surprised.

Btw, the purchaser was a _reporter for the local fish wrapper_ doing an article on suicide – seven months ago!

The reporter thanked the cops for their concern. Of course. How touching.

I feel safer already.

Alan touched on an important point; the point seems deserving of a response. Alan wrote: "most people have their minds set and interpret anything to fit what they want to believe".

https://jerrypournelle.com/chaosmanor/?p=2110 This is true, and

this is normal in the untrained mind.

If you direct your web browser to CIA.gov and look for Psychology of Intelligence Analysis — https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-

the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-

monographs/psychology-of-intelligence-analysis/PsychofIntelNew.pdf –

– you will learn that this is how people tend to interpret new data. People trained in critical thinking and basic analysis do not — or tend not — to do this when applying the principles learned in critical thought or analysis.

This publication would — were I Emperor — be required reading before middle school. Read it now; understand it later would be my attitude and refreshment would occur as often as necessary to ensure that citizens are — mostly — critical thinkers. I realize we cannot take care of all the stray dogs…

What we experience in 2011 seems to me the result of the "act of war" described in the 1983 report for the President, which you posted some time back.

http://www.jerrypournelle.com/view/2010/Q2/view619.html More cynically, I might say — in intelligence parlance — we see the effect of "useful idiots". "Act of war" may not have been far from

the truth. But who prosecutes this war and why?

As an aside, I would — sincerely — thank CIA for making the foregoing publication public. This publication had a profound impact on my life; I read it while traveling some years back and again in college as a course book. Thank you to the personnel at

CIA who still care for our country and our society.

—–

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

History of Arab/Israeli conflict in less than 12 minutes

Encounter Books presents an 11 minute 37 second video describing the

history of the 90 years of Arab/Israeli conflict. It’s interesting just

how many times Israel has offered to give or actually given the so-called

Palestinian Arab Muslims very good deals only to have the Arabs turn it

down. The brevity of the video drives this home remarkably well.

Debunking the Palestine Lie

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O7ByJb7QQ9U

{^_^}

The amazing shipping container: How it changed the world,

Jerry

“The amazing shipping container: How it changed the world.” An interesting proposition: “The [shipping] container has made geographic distance almost irrelevant in determining the terms of trade.”

http://www.channelregister.co.uk/2011/09/19/keith_tatlinger_shipping_container_inventor_dies/

“ . . . trade barriers are the combination of such tariffs and laws with transport costs. And transport costs have been falling so far and so fast that even if tariffs had doubled, tripled, the total trade barriers would still have fallen. We saw this same thing happen in the 19th century with the invention of steam-powered ships. Around and after the Civil War, US import tariffs doubled in many cases: yet trade kept going up and up as the reductions in shipping costs were even larger than those increases in formal trade barriers. The shipping container has done this again over the past 50 years: there is almost no level of legal or tax trade protection that could have stopped foreign goods getting ever cheaper as the costs of hauling things from country to country fell ever lower.”

“Tantlinger didn’t invent the shipping container, didn’t build the whole international system, but he did come up with the one little refinement that made the system we have today possible. The Sir Tim Berners-Lee of the physical shipping world if you like.”

As I said. Interesting.

Ed

VDH optimism

I just read Victor Davis Hanson’s latest at Pajamas Media and he is coming across more upbeat and optimistic than he has in a long time. For a lot of the same reasons, I’m beginning to feel that way too.

http://pajamasmedia.com/victordavishanson/the-great-obama-catharsis/2/

The opening paragraph is the essence of it, but the meat of the column supports this and leads to a strong case for optimism.

"Barack Obama has done the United States a great, though unforeseen, favor. He has brought to light, as no one else could, many of the pernicious assumptions of our culture from the last half-century. He turned theory and “what ifs” into fact for all America to see, experience, and, yes, suffer through."

I have never subscribed to the despair that so many libertarians and conservatives have over the past couple of years. I do, however, worry about whether we can undo the cultural impacts. After all, some significant portion of our population is now dependent on bread (EIC, WIC, food stamps, Medicaid, etc) and circuses. This same group of people also, to all appearances, not only cannot get gainful employment, but do not need to. After all, we have now made unemployment benefits perpetual for all intents and purposes. I struggle to see how this is really different from the old perpetual welfare that we got rid of in the 90’s. Structurally, it looks like about 25% of our population is in the bread and circuses mode.

How long before we distinguish between "citizens" and "taxpayers"?

I am optimistic that the educated middle class American is going through a great awakening that will make socialism anathema politically for a generation or more. Unfortunately, we have a structural cultural problem with the bread & circuses portion of our society and how we will deal with that. Many of them no longer seem to have much belief that they can work their way to success with that American combination of hard work, motivation and education. And what happens, then, when we take away their bread and they can no longer afford their circuses? The ancient Roman Republic knew, of course, but that answer appears to be lost in the dimness of 2000 years of history.

Eric Cowperthwaite

We can hope. The 2012 election offers a chance to turn back and forsake our foolish ways – or to continue to sow the wind. The issues are clear, rule of law vs. fairness.

NASA Scientists

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/meet-the-%E2%80%98treycycle%E2%80%99-the-fast-%E2%80%98street-legal%E2%80%99-3-wheeler-created-by-laid-off-nasa-workers/?treycycle?-the-fast-?street-legal?-3-wheeler-created-by-laid-off-nasa-workers/

Roger Miller

"except where is our Hansen Enterprises?"

SpaceX

"The price of a standard flight on a Falcon 9 rocket is $54 million…..

The average price of a full-up NASA Dragon cargo mission to the International Space Station is $133 million including inflation, or roughly $115m in today’s dollars, and we have a firm, fixed price contract with NASA for 12 missions. This price includes the costs of the Falcon 9 launch, the Dragon spacecraft, all operations, maintenance and overhead, and all of the work required to integrate with the Space Station. If there are cost overruns, SpaceX will cover the difference. (This concept may be foreign to some traditional government space contractors ….

The total company expenditures since being founded in 2002 through the 2010 fiscal year were less than $800 million, which includes all the development costs for the Falcon 1, Falcon 9 and Dragon. ….

The Falcon 9 launch vehicle was developed from a blank sheet to first launch in four and half years for just over $300 million. The Falcon 9/Dragon system, with the addition of a launch escape system, seats and upgraded life support, can carry seven astronauts to orbit, more than double the capacity of the Russian Soyuz, but at less than a third of the price per seat.

SpaceX has been profitable every year since 2007, despite dramatic employee growth and major infrastructure and operations investments. We have over 40 flights on manifest representing over $3 billion in revenues.

….SpaceX intends to make far more dramatic reductions in price in the long term when full launch vehicle reusability is achieved. We will not be satisfied with our progress until we have achieved this long sought goal of the space industry.

For the first time in more than three decades, America last year began taking back international market-share in commercial satellite launch.

–Elon–"

http://www.spacex.com/usa.php

He has also promised the equivalent of a 737in orbit by 2013

Neil Craig

Laurie Jo Hansen and Aeneas Mackenzie do not seem to be present in this universe. Perhaps in another. But those were good stories.