Education needed View 686 20110804

View 686 Thursday, August 04, 2011

· Lessons for the Mamelukes

· Those cuts in education

Lessons for the Mamelukes

It was on the network news last night and major front pages today: Hosni Mubarak, formerly Pharaoh, formerly Commander in Chief of the Egyptian Armed Forces, successor to Sadat, on a gurney in a cage, on trial for his life. His two sons shared the cage with him.

When Tunisia exploded and the Tunisian Army dithered, then chose to protect the demonstrators from the security forces, the Egyptian military, the Mamelukes who were the power behind Mubarak, saw an opportunity in the beginnings of unrest and demonstrations in Cairo.

Mubarak had hoped to maneuver his sons into leadership positions, turning his rule from despoty to dynasty. The Mamelukes didn’t want that. Mubarak’s sons reminded those who knew the history of Imperial Rome (which after all ruled Egypt for a very long time) of the sons of Septimius Severus. One of them, Caracalla, sacked Alexandria in retaliation for an insult. The Mamelukes didn’t want to relinquish command of Egypt – they still haven’t, although they are supposed to be arranging an election that will mean the end of their rule – but they did not want a Mubarak dynasty. The demonstrations looked to be a good way to end that. Mubarak would resign and go into exile. The Army would continue to rule.

Mubarak resigned but he didn’t go into exile. That turned out to be a mistake: the demonstrators demanded more, and the Cairo demonstrations went from a demand for regime change to a demand for revenge, as revolutions almost always do.

The Mamelukes had not wanted to see Mubarak’s head on a stick. He was, after all, their leader. They do not want to see that now, but they are not sure what they ought to do.

There are lessons here. One is the usual lesson the West seems determined to teach to strong men and dictators from Pinochet to Qaddafi to Bashar al-Assad: never let go. If you must go down, go down fighting, for you will not survive the transition – and after the first round of revenge will come the others, more show trials. And if you fight, as Khaddafi and Bashar are doing, you may yet win out. If you do not, you will at best spend your life in a Dutch prison. They may not poison you as the Brits are said to have poisoned Napoleon, but it will not be pleasant. Better to do as Martin Luther advised the Princes to do with the Anabaptists: burn, slay, kill.

The Mamelukes already regret their actions. What they will do now is not clear. Certainly there will be factions among the top leadership who see that they are next. And they are watching progress in Syria as Bashar Assad surrounds Hama.

But What of Justice?

Of course the question rises, should not tyrants be brought to trial? Where is justice?

There is no answer to that. England, during the Wars of the Roses, found it expedient solemnly to declare that it could never be treason to swear allegiance or pay taxes to a crowned King, no matter which color rose that King wore. Sun Tzu teaches that one ought to build golden bridges for ones enemies. The question is simple: what is the cost of justice? How many lives will be lost if the option of settling these affairs with silver bullets is irrevocably thrown out. Let Justice be done though the heavens fall is an appealing cry. I remember shouting it at an undergraduate rally myself some sixty years ago.

Meanwhile the battles in Libya continue. The artillery rolls out and people are being slaughtered like sheep in Syria. For some, the heavens are falling. Will they see justice?

Those cuts in education.

The cries are becoming shrill: the budget deal is cutting spending on education! We must do something.

Alas, the Deficit Deal cuts nothing. Even if every projected “cut” in the Deficit Deal were implemented – and in fact none will be before 2013 – the result is not a cut. It is a reduction in projected increases in spending. I hate to keep repeating that, but apparently it is difficult to understand: the “cuts” in the Deficit Deal are cuts only to projected spending. Even if implemented, there will be more spending on education in future than there was this year. There are no cuts, although the demonstrating college students are demonstrating the quality of the education they are getting, since they don’t realize this.

The downside to pumping more money into education is that when more money enters a market the prices go up. When I was a lad, state colleges were nearly free. You had to find a way to live while going to school, but tuition at state schools was never the deciding factor. Roberta worked her way through college. I had the GI Bill to help me, so for me it was mostly a matter of board jobs: work an hour at Reich’s Café in Iowa City and you got a meal off the menu. Those jobs are outlawed by the Federal government now: they don’t meet minimum wage requirements.

Since we have been pumping money into the university systems the tuition has risen accordingly. Costs of education soar. University staffs and facilities multiply and become more expensive. My suspicion is that genuine cuts in education spending would benefit the institutions as they are forced to shed non-essential expenditures. I’m prepared to present arguments for that position, but that isn’t my point here: there are no cuts in education expenditures. We’re going to spend more money on education next year than we did last year. We will spend more in 2013 than we will in 2012; just not as much more as the baseline projections forecast. And that, in the Washington Accounting, is a cut.

So the demonstrating students can go back to studying sociology or whatever is it they are slaving away at, and thus help make the US more competitive in the international intellectual market. I am sure there is a dire need for more sociology students.

And the Dow will continue to fall when the financial people realize that the Deficit is now larger than the annual GDP of the United States, and rising.

The Wall Street Journal has an editorial today on the effect of the Deficit Deal. Apparently even the WSJ did not quite understand the effects of the Deficit Deal. They are now horrified. It’s worth your attention if you want to understand why things are going to get worse. Note that the Dow is just figuring this all out.

Jihad!

Re the Republicans:

“We have negotiated with terrorists. This small group of terrorists have made it impossible to spend any more money.” Mike Doyle, Member of Congress (D, Pennsylvania)

“Tea Party Republicans have waged jihad on the American people.” Joe Nocera, columnist, New York Times

This is known as civility.

We can hope that the House will hold fast on its rejection of the card check nonsense built into the appropriation for the FAA. This isn’t about money. Well, in a sense it is: it’s about compulsory union membership and thus donations to Democrats. Presumably the Republicans in the House know enough to stand their ground. Although you never know with the Country Club. The Tea Party Republicans understand perfectly.