Category Archives: Mail

Mail 693 Monday, September 19, 2011

· Gas below $2

· More letters from England

·

45% of Canadians illiterate????!

How can anyone believe that 45% of Canadians are illiterate?

socialism is the cause?

Has the author ever travelled to Canada? Doubtful

If you believe this, us good old dumb boys will sell you acres of oilsands at $100 / acre since we have so much

Stephen crawford

I don’t believe that either. The piece referred to Quebec, not Canada, but I doubt that anything like half the Quebecois are illiterate. The linked article says:

By sheer coincidence (or perhaps not ) a few days later, front page news in Montreal’s newspaper was a grim statistic: 50% of Quebec’s population are virtually illiterate, meaning they cannot grasp more than simple statements.  The percentage is not much better for Canada as a whole, standing at 45%.  The numbers should not be that surprising, since some 55% boys and 45% girls drop out of high schools in Quebec.

My guess is that it’s an exaggeration, but perhaps not. I am not familiar with Quebec; and of course it’s a judgment call when you deal with “virtually illiterate”. By my lights, literate means to be able to look at the written text and say it. English is slightly less phonetic than French, but both are phonetic languages (as opposed to Chinese with is ideographic).

Subject: Price of Gas

Jerry-

I predict that the price of gasoline will be $2.00/gallon by January 1, 2012.

Three driving forces:

Over the next 5 years, perhaps 15% to 20% of the commercial truck fleet will convert to natural gas. See:

http://www.tulsaworld.com/business/article.aspx?subjectid=49&articleid=20110412_49_E4_CUTLIN746179

Gaddafi can’t hang on forever, and something that can’t go on forever will stop. I expect that to happen in the short term.

The petrostates will need to pump oil to buy the grain they need to keep their subject populations fed. This will exert significant

downward pressure on the price of oil. In a battle between OPEC and hunger, hunger wins.

-Steve

Want to bet?

Jerry Pournelle

Chaos Manor

Price of Gas

Jerry-

$2/gallon gasoline by January 1, 2012 still seems like a good bet to me. Note that the increasing production of oil from the Canadian Tar Sands is pushing the cost of WTI down under $90/barrel. This is hard to explain on the basis of pipeline capacity and storage constraints as is often said. Why aren’t the Canadians decreasing their production? I expect that the Canadians are pumping that oil as fast as they can because of the risk of a drop in oil price. At some point the Chinese housing bubble will burst and world demand will drop. Petrobras is expanding production of their huge proven reserves, fracked oil is now ramping up in the US, and natural gas is expanding. These factors will play out over years and decades, but their effect on oil prices will be much earlier. The high price of oil is artificially maintained by the cartel and can not be sustained in the face of a long term expectation that prices will drop. A recent prediction is that the US will become the #1 producer of "oil-like fluids" by 2017.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/8367#more

http://www.stockhouse.com/Columnists/2011/Sept/7/Best-companies-in-Brent-crude-oil

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/09/21/another-big-reason-for-natural-gas-to-pick-up.aspx

http://www.suntimes.com/business/7772009-420/gas-prices-slip-in-chicago-area-may-even-go-lower.html

$2/gallon gas by January 1, 2012. What shall we wager?

-Steve

Perhaps so. You make an interesting case, and it is not a matter I have much thought about. On the other hand, I have great confidence in the ability of the Federal Government to get in the gears.

Letters from England

You want it bad; you get it bad

Expensive (half billion pound) fiasco: http://preview.tinyurl.com/6azbm9f http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-14974552

UK police informant system in disarray: http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2011/sep/20/ukcrime-metropolitan-police

—

Harry Erwin

Stories of interest

Analysis of the UK fire service fiasco: http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/09/20/fire_service_469_million_flop_caused_by_it_illiteracy/ Full report: http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201012/cmselect/cmpubacc/1397/139702.htm

Guess who was responsible for this attack: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-14982906

—

Harry Erwin

Only in Europe

Deportation of rapists violates their right to a family life: <http://preview.tinyurl.com/64jq34t http://preview.tinyurl.com/6emwhfh

Economy enters dangerous phase here. (America is slightly better off) http://preview.tinyurl.com/5r2u45z http://preview.tinyurl.com/5w76pe2 http://preview.tinyurl.com/6jsghmf http://preview.tinyurl.com/675u95t

Police back off http://preview.tinyurl.com/6huj8hq http://preview.tinyurl.com/69stgjg http://preview.tinyurl.com/5uwtgfs http://preview.tinyurl.com/3uhzeds http://preview.tinyurl.com/6z7xe77

The reason for using the Official Secrets Act was because there’s no public interest exception.

—

Harry Erwin

See <http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/09/21/profs_school_cameron/>. Fields no longer to be supported include pure mathematics, applied mathematics, fluid dynamics, number theory, geometry, astronomy, and theoretical physics.

—

Harry Erwin, PhD

A bit more on the maths story

There’s a Guardian story with a bit more detail. http://preview.tinyurl.com/6yuh9m6 This is the second shoe. The first shoe was three years ago when the UK Government decided to halve its research funding for mathematics. I had noticed that the UK seemed to be losing ground in science during my summer visit, and this just confirms that the UK Government has decided it’s too expensive to keep up with the rest of the first world in science and math. I wouldn’t recommend that path to Americans–it leads to a very bad place.

—

Harry Erwin, PhD

"If you can’t be a good example, then you’ll just have to be a horrible warning." (Catherine Aird)

Of course the way we compete with the rest of the First World is even more expensive and probably not all that much more effective. We spend enormous sums teaching Algebra II to dull normal hich school students, and then we furnish bonehead math courses at Universities which keep raising their tuition costs.

I have a new campaign for public schools: at least half the publc money should be spent on students who are not discipline problems and are of average or above intelligence. That, at least, would mean that some of the money might actually be invested in activites that might possibly generate a return on that investment. In the real world, it’s unlikely that university education for more than 20% of the population will do much good, but we could certainly profit from investment in various trade education and apprenticeship programs. Unlikely, of course. Fairness trumps investment until you run out of other people’s money to be fair with.

As to the subject of federalism, I agree that the smallest appropriate federal government is a great idea and key to the overall success of the US. And, yes, I will agree that the current federal government is too big.

However, we must remember that the major reason that the federal government has gotten involved in issues is because of inappropriate/dangerous conduct by the states. Do we really believe that Brown v. Board of Education was a bad idea?

In today’s world where everything is connected, for example, how can we let the individual states regular food safety? If I buy chicken that happens to come from Arkansas, should I just assume that it is safe? You know that the states in the south will never fund their local governments at an appropriate level to provide some key government services.

While I voted for Obama, I’m also deeply disappointed in how he has worked out. However, for god’s sakes, if Michelle Bachman becomes president we are on a very slippery slope downhill. No mandate for vaccines? I have a dear friend who got cervical cancer, recovered, but is now 38 and will never have a child. The HPV vaccine would have easily taken care of that if it was around when she was at the right age.

Living in a community means a certain sharing of rights AND obligations. Lets not simply look at the Republican Party talking points and at what Rush says and forget that there might be some reasonable people who have reasonably differing ideas.

Respectfully,

Alex Thurber

Los Altos, Calif.

Note that a chicken shipped across state lines is certainly in interstate commerce, and thus subject to regulation by Congress. We had agricultural inspection programs for interstate commerce for a very long time. But when Congress claims to be able to set minimum wages for window washers on a building that might rent to a firm that might engage in interstate commerce, perhaps things have gone a bit far?

It is legitimate to open the whole subject of federal/state relations for new debate; of course that won’t happen. Just as any cut in federal spending means that veteran pensions will not be paid, or the food inspectors will be closed, but there is never any discussion of bunny inspectors.

There are certainly matters that Washington does better than state and local government, but the automatic assumption that a federal bureaucracy will do a better job of developing and enforcing policies on everything from vaccinations to raising rabbits does not seem wise to me.

The fact that your friend did not seek out and get the vaccine and then developed cervical cancer does not settle the question of individual rights vs. public rights in the case of a non-casually transmitted disease. I am far more comfortable about a federal mandate for smallpox vaccination than I am about mandatory vaccinations for STD’s; indeed, while I am willing to contribute to help those who cannot afford vaccinations against STD, I am not at all certain that I am obliged to force anyone to be given the shots. I certainly find nothing in the Constitution that gives such powers to Congress. To the states, yes; and of course to Congress as governor of the District of Columbia; but for Congress to say that a girl in San Francisco must have a vaccination against cervical cancer before she reaches the age of sexual activity seems a bit far out.

It may well be that you are more qualified to determine what are and are not key government services for Memphis and Vicksburg, but I would not make the same claim for myself.

News note

Jerry,

In a report on this year’s Forbes 400 on the ABC news network at 1300 ET today, the report noted that the cumulative wealth of the Forbes 400, at $1.5 trillion, was "about what President Obama wants to get from increased taxes on millionaires over the next ten years." [Take that as a close paraphrase; the wording may not be exact.]

One could also note that it is less than months of an Obama deficit.

If the Government confiscates it…well, taking that much cash out of the system is going to significantly devalue the other assets. For example, of all of Buffets holdings in Berkshire Hathaway were sold, the stock price would probably drop between 50 and 75%; so instead of $1.5 trillion, the government has maybe $1 trillion left as cash. And then what do we do when we run out of that cash.

J

Socialism is great until you run out of other people’s money. Rule of law often seems heartless and unfair. But if the goal is to equalize incomes, I would rather confiscate the money from people like Niven and drop it from airplanes for random pickup than take it to give to those who hired the tax collectors. This is not about fairness. It is about maintaining the 7% exponential growth of government.

Re: Discrepancy of Wealth

I returned to your Sept 19th post on discrepancy of wealth and re-read it when Glenn Reynolds linked to it. One thing that always strikes me, when I read about calls from super-wealthy individuals for higher taxes, is that the tax vehicle they generally have in mind is the income tax. Bearing in mind that a good working definition of "income" is "new money," how altruistic is it, really, for holders of established wealth, such as Warren Buffet, to advocate a confiscatory tax on new money?

BigLeeH

Lee Haslup

The notion is that those who are successful must in fairness contribute to the welfare of those who tried and failed, and also to those who never tried at all. That’s fairness.

Obama Calls It: Said his presidency would result in ‘rise of oceans beginning to slow’ — And By 2011, Sea Level Drops!

http://www.climatedepot.com/a/12910/Planet-Healer-Obama-Calls-It-In-2008-he-declared-his-presidency-would-result-in-the-rise-of-the-oceans-beginning-to-slow–And-By-2011-Sea-Level-Drops

Planet Healer Obama Calls It: In 2008, he declared his presidency would result in ‘the rise of the oceans beginning to slow’ — And By 2011, Sea Level Drops!

Obama ‘presided over what some scientists are terming an ‘historic decline" in global sea levels’ — ‘Obama should declare ‘mission accomplished’ and take credit!’

President Barack Obama can take a bow. As Obama struggles with poor polling numbers, persistent high unemployment, the possibly of a primary challenge within his own party and a stagnant economy saddled with massive deficits and debts, one area where he can claim success is his prediction that he would slow sea level rise.

Stupid FBI/cop tricks

"Police kick in door in confusion over suicide kit.

The FBI message to police about the purchase of the gear failed to mention it was bought _seven months ago_."

http://www.registerguard.com/web/newslocalnews/26910049-41/kit-police-suicide-springfield-fbi.html.csp

We are appalled but hardly surprised.

Btw, the purchaser was a _reporter for the local fish wrapper_ doing an article on suicide – seven months ago!

The reporter thanked the cops for their concern. Of course. How touching.

I feel safer already.

Alan touched on an important point; the point seems deserving of a response. Alan wrote: "most people have their minds set and interpret anything to fit what they want to believe".

https://jerrypournelle.com/chaosmanor/?p=2110 This is true, and

this is normal in the untrained mind.

If you direct your web browser to CIA.gov and look for Psychology of Intelligence Analysis — https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-

the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-

monographs/psychology-of-intelligence-analysis/PsychofIntelNew.pdf –

– you will learn that this is how people tend to interpret new data. People trained in critical thinking and basic analysis do not — or tend not — to do this when applying the principles learned in critical thought or analysis.

This publication would — were I Emperor — be required reading before middle school. Read it now; understand it later would be my attitude and refreshment would occur as often as necessary to ensure that citizens are — mostly — critical thinkers. I realize we cannot take care of all the stray dogs…

What we experience in 2011 seems to me the result of the "act of war" described in the 1983 report for the President, which you posted some time back.

http://www.jerrypournelle.com/view/2010/Q2/view619.html More cynically, I might say — in intelligence parlance — we see the effect of "useful idiots". "Act of war" may not have been far from

the truth. But who prosecutes this war and why?

As an aside, I would — sincerely — thank CIA for making the foregoing publication public. This publication had a profound impact on my life; I read it while traveling some years back and again in college as a course book. Thank you to the personnel at

CIA who still care for our country and our society.

—–

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

History of Arab/Israeli conflict in less than 12 minutes

Encounter Books presents an 11 minute 37 second video describing the

history of the 90 years of Arab/Israeli conflict. It’s interesting just

how many times Israel has offered to give or actually given the so-called

Palestinian Arab Muslims very good deals only to have the Arabs turn it

down. The brevity of the video drives this home remarkably well.

Debunking the Palestine Lie

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O7ByJb7QQ9U

{^_^}

The amazing shipping container: How it changed the world,

Jerry

“The amazing shipping container: How it changed the world.” An interesting proposition: “The [shipping] container has made geographic distance almost irrelevant in determining the terms of trade.”

http://www.channelregister.co.uk/2011/09/19/keith_tatlinger_shipping_container_inventor_dies/

“ . . . trade barriers are the combination of such tariffs and laws with transport costs. And transport costs have been falling so far and so fast that even if tariffs had doubled, tripled, the total trade barriers would still have fallen. We saw this same thing happen in the 19th century with the invention of steam-powered ships. Around and after the Civil War, US import tariffs doubled in many cases: yet trade kept going up and up as the reductions in shipping costs were even larger than those increases in formal trade barriers. The shipping container has done this again over the past 50 years: there is almost no level of legal or tax trade protection that could have stopped foreign goods getting ever cheaper as the costs of hauling things from country to country fell ever lower.”

“Tantlinger didn’t invent the shipping container, didn’t build the whole international system, but he did come up with the one little refinement that made the system we have today possible. The Sir Tim Berners-Lee of the physical shipping world if you like.”

As I said. Interesting.

Ed

VDH optimism

I just read Victor Davis Hanson’s latest at Pajamas Media and he is coming across more upbeat and optimistic than he has in a long time. For a lot of the same reasons, I’m beginning to feel that way too.

http://pajamasmedia.com/victordavishanson/the-great-obama-catharsis/2/

The opening paragraph is the essence of it, but the meat of the column supports this and leads to a strong case for optimism.

"Barack Obama has done the United States a great, though unforeseen, favor. He has brought to light, as no one else could, many of the pernicious assumptions of our culture from the last half-century. He turned theory and “what ifs” into fact for all America to see, experience, and, yes, suffer through."

I have never subscribed to the despair that so many libertarians and conservatives have over the past couple of years. I do, however, worry about whether we can undo the cultural impacts. After all, some significant portion of our population is now dependent on bread (EIC, WIC, food stamps, Medicaid, etc) and circuses. This same group of people also, to all appearances, not only cannot get gainful employment, but do not need to. After all, we have now made unemployment benefits perpetual for all intents and purposes. I struggle to see how this is really different from the old perpetual welfare that we got rid of in the 90’s. Structurally, it looks like about 25% of our population is in the bread and circuses mode.

How long before we distinguish between "citizens" and "taxpayers"?

I am optimistic that the educated middle class American is going through a great awakening that will make socialism anathema politically for a generation or more. Unfortunately, we have a structural cultural problem with the bread & circuses portion of our society and how we will deal with that. Many of them no longer seem to have much belief that they can work their way to success with that American combination of hard work, motivation and education. And what happens, then, when we take away their bread and they can no longer afford their circuses? The ancient Roman Republic knew, of course, but that answer appears to be lost in the dimness of 2000 years of history.

Eric Cowperthwaite

We can hope. The 2012 election offers a chance to turn back and forsake our foolish ways – or to continue to sow the wind. The issues are clear, rule of law vs. fairness.

NASA Scientists

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/meet-the-%E2%80%98treycycle%E2%80%99-the-fast-%E2%80%98street-legal%E2%80%99-3-wheeler-created-by-laid-off-nasa-workers/?treycycle?-the-fast-?street-legal?-3-wheeler-created-by-laid-off-nasa-workers/

Roger Miller

"except where is our Hansen Enterprises?"

SpaceX

"The price of a standard flight on a Falcon 9 rocket is $54 million…..

The average price of a full-up NASA Dragon cargo mission to the International Space Station is $133 million including inflation, or roughly $115m in today’s dollars, and we have a firm, fixed price contract with NASA for 12 missions. This price includes the costs of the Falcon 9 launch, the Dragon spacecraft, all operations, maintenance and overhead, and all of the work required to integrate with the Space Station. If there are cost overruns, SpaceX will cover the difference. (This concept may be foreign to some traditional government space contractors ….

The total company expenditures since being founded in 2002 through the 2010 fiscal year were less than $800 million, which includes all the development costs for the Falcon 1, Falcon 9 and Dragon. ….

The Falcon 9 launch vehicle was developed from a blank sheet to first launch in four and half years for just over $300 million. The Falcon 9/Dragon system, with the addition of a launch escape system, seats and upgraded life support, can carry seven astronauts to orbit, more than double the capacity of the Russian Soyuz, but at less than a third of the price per seat.

SpaceX has been profitable every year since 2007, despite dramatic employee growth and major infrastructure and operations investments. We have over 40 flights on manifest representing over $3 billion in revenues.

….SpaceX intends to make far more dramatic reductions in price in the long term when full launch vehicle reusability is achieved. We will not be satisfied with our progress until we have achieved this long sought goal of the space industry.

For the first time in more than three decades, America last year began taking back international market-share in commercial satellite launch.

–Elon–"

http://www.spacex.com/usa.php

He has also promised the equivalent of a 737in orbit by 2013

Neil Craig

Laurie Jo Hansen and Aeneas Mackenzie do not seem to be present in this universe. Perhaps in another. But those were good stories.

Mail 693 Monday, September 19, 2011

Jerry,

You often say despair is a sin;

BUT I do get frustrated; reading of President Obama’s newest bids for headlines, I did a Google about “rich paying taxes”; isn’t envy also a sin?

The current taxation system is so complicated and convoluted, rife with social engineering and sweetheart deals. I consider taxes to be a any money that is paid to the government, income tax, property tax, use taxes, estate tax, gasoline and auto registration taxes—seems to me like I pay taxes again and again on the same money I earn.

A value added tax or a use tax seems the most ‘fair’ to me as what I consider a libertarian, why should ‘fair’ mean take away from the successful to fund entitlements? Why should farmers be paid subsidies? Unfortunately it is not easy to make changes to a system that is already in place –[reminds me of a line from ‘Mote In God’s Eye’]

All I see is political grandstanding and divisiveness; most people have their minds set and interpret anything to fit what they want to believe. Surely it’s easy to believe the ‘Rich’ are rich because of an unfair system, not anything they did or didn’t do.

Some of your fiction seems incredibly prophetic; so much in ‘Exile and Glory’ rings true—except where is our Hansen Enterprises?

Take care

Alan

President Obama is open about it now. There are no property rights. There is only “fairness”; the Constitution means nothing, liberty is not important; we must be ‘fair’ and that means that those who now pay most of the taxes already now get to pay even more because the government must continue to grow at 7% exponential. Forever.

Letter from England

We’re going to Canterbury Cathedral this weekend–a friend is becoming an archdeacon there.

Police attempting to use Official Secrets Act to force journalists to reveal sources. http://preview.tinyurl.com/3p6pg4c http://preview.tinyurl.com/6bfcfp7

The General Medical Council considers monitoring of doctors’ private religious beliefs http://preview.tinyurl.com/6ad2kqe

UK will miss legally binding climate targets. http://preview.tinyurl.com/6jbwozd

Evidence dark matter theories may be wrong. http://preview.tinyurl.com/6yac7k3

It’s more complex than we thought: http://preview.tinyurl.com/3bh37uk

What does this say about undergraduate STEM education in the UK, where most programs are even weaker than North American programs? http://preview.tinyurl.com/68gnc9h

Contact time is valued. http://preview.tinyurl.com/65me2fr

This article questions why more PhDs are trained than are needed to cover academic needs. I think I understand why, at least in the UK. Here, there is no advanced post-graduate training, and the first degree is–at most universities–equivalent to a North American associates degree. The only way to produce the people with advanced training needed by a modern economy is via an apprenticeship–the PhD. <http://preview.tinyurl.com/5v2ldns>

—

Harry Erwin, PhD

"If you can’t be a good example, then you’ll just have to be a horrible warning." (Catherine Aird)

Subj: Rocket fuels

Your contributor h lynn keith at

https://jerrypournelle.com/chaosmanor/?p=2050 got a little carried away in his mostly-appropriate tirade.

In particular, the Draco thrusters of the SpaceX Dragon capsule use "monomethyl hydrazine as a fuel and nitrogen tetroxide as an oxidizer – the same orbital maneuvering propellants used by the Space Shuttle.

These storable propellants have very long on-orbit lifetimes, providing the option for the Dragon spacecraft to remain berthed at the ISS for a year or more, ready to serve as an emergency ‘lifeboat’ if necessary."

http://www.spacex.com/press.php?page=20081209

I’d not want to try to store LOX for any great length of time on orbit without a nice, heavy, energy-sucking refrigeration unit to re-condense it as it boiled off. I also wonder about the mass and reliability issues associated with the ignition system I’d need if I used non-hypergolics for maneuvering thrusters.

Rod Montgomery==monty@starfief.com

I probably should have commented on that, but I really hate hydrazine. Yes, hydrazine and red fuming nitric acid work reliably and predictably, and they’re stable over a wide range of temperatures, but lordy those are horrible liquids. I suppose I should just get used to it, because I don’t really have a better idea.

Subj: KH-9 declassified

http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2011/09/19/declassified-us-spy-satellites-reveal-rare-look-at-secret-cold-war-space/

Hoo Hah! Now we can talk about it.

Gamers Crush Scientists in only Three Weeks

Jerry,

Three weeks for a major scientific breakthrough that had eluded solution previously

Regards, Charles Adams, Bellevue, NE

<http://scienceblog.com/47894/gamers-succeed-where-scientists-fail/>

"Gamers succeed where scientists fail

September 18, 2011

Gamers have solved the structure of a retrovirus enzyme whose configuration had stumped scientists for more than a decade. The gamers achieved their discovery by playing Foldit, an online game that allows players to collaborate and compete in predicting the structure of protein molecules.

After scientists repeatedly failed to piece together the structure of a protein-cutting enzyme from an AIDS-like virus, they called in the Foldit players. The scientists challenged the gamers to produce an accurate model of the enzyme. They did it in only three weeks…."

Heh!

good stuff

http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/generals-dilemma-training-us-reserves-once-wars-end

Cheap energy = prosperity!

Drill here, DRILL NOW!

David Couvillon

Colonel, U.S. Marine Corps Reserve, Retired.; Former Governor of Wasit Province, Iraq; Righter of Wrongs; Wrong most of the time; Distinguished Expert, TV remote control; Chef de Hot Dog Excellance; Avoider of Yard Work

When we get the Legions home we will still need them. Thanks.

Subject: Time lapse flyover of the earth

600 photos taken from the international space station are strung together to create a time-lapse flyover of Earth.

http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/tech/2011/09/19/vo-nasa-space-station-flyover.cnn?&hpt=hp_c2

Tracy Walters

See also http://iss.astroviewer.net/

Thanks

Subj: The real effect of CO2 doubling

It has long been known that one of the objections to anthropogenic global warming due to carbon dioxide is that, even at current CO2 concentrations, the CO2 is already absorbing most of the energy available within it’s absorption bands; and since it can’t absorb more than 100%, it’s effects for more energy trapping are really quite limited.

The paper cited / summarized here (http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/03/02/new-paper-claims-a-value-one-seventh-of-the-ipcc-best-estimate-for-climate-sensitivity-for-a-co2-doubling/) combines this analysis with actual measurements of CO2 (and methane) in conjunction with water vapor to show that, in the extreme, a doubling of CO2 concentration as in projected over the next century would result in a total temperature increase of 0.45 Celsius (0.8 Fahrenheit), instead of the 3.2 Celsius (5.5 Fahrenheit) forecast by the IPCC.

Jim

The sophisticated modelers tell us that (1) they know the annual average temperature of the Earth – the Whole Earth, on average, for a year – to a tenth of a degree, and (2) that temperature has risen about 1 degree in the last hundred years. We do know the CO2 levels to a fair accuracy. It has risen. Arrhenius calculated that doubling the CO2 would add about a degree per century to the Earth’s temperature; he didn’t think he could be more accurate than that, and his was a back of the envelope model.

CO2 is rising, and it seems unwise to run an open ended experiment for a long time: we would be wise to look for ways to reverse this trend at need, perhaps by stimulating plankton blooms, perhaps with spray systems, perhaps with something I haven’t thought of; but it would also be wise to establish just what the current rise is doing. Could it be beneficial? Is anyone funding experiments to find out?

Subj: Historical Extreme Weather

http://www.breadandbutterscience.com/Weather.pdf

(nods: wattsupwiththat.com)

A compilation of recorded extreme weather events going back to the birth of Christ.

This absolutely proves — proves — that extreme weather existed before Al Gore invented the Internet and tried to tax the SUV for causing extreme weather.

Also fascinating reading. (Did you know that the Isle of Wight separated from the mainland of England in 68 AD due to an apparent volcanic eruption and tsunami?)

Jim

A very good source of data. Thanks. It kept me up past my bed time…

Literacy rate in Quebec

Jerry,

One of your correspondents sent in the link below, and I pulled in an excerpt from it below that:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/leapfrogging/2011/09/15/want-less-inequality-stop-subsidizing-schools-and-universities/

From the article:

<quote>

….front page news in Montreal’s newspaper was a grim statistic: 50% of Quebec’s population are virtually illiterate, meaning they cannot grasp more than simple statements. The percentage is not much better for Canada as a whole, standing at 45%. The numbers should not be that surprising, since some 55% boys and 45% girls drop out of high schools in Quebec….

<end quote>

Ain’t socialism wonderful? I mean, after all, there is no reason to study and work hard in school, the nanny-state is going to take care of you.

Tracy Walters

"See Something, Say Something" campaign…

I want to be first in line to report our elected officials under this law. Anyone who starts in poverty, has nothing but elective government jobs, and retires wealthy is obviously behaving suspiciously. Think LBJ.

Charles Brumbelow

You certainly have a point. And the union donations to candidates who promote unionism. Maybe there is some use to this “See something say something” business…

Subject: A Greek tragedy: How the debt crisis spread like a virus in ‘Contagion’ <http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/19/a-greek-tragedy-how-the-debt-crisis-spread-like-a-virus-in-contagion/>

http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/19/a-greek-tragedy-how-the-debt-crisis-spread-like-a-virus-in-contagion/?hpt=hp_t2

Maybe the relationship between the movie and debt crisis could be correlated to the ‘global warming crisis’ also. Goodness knows, it would have about as much basis in scientific fact as other theories.

Tracy Walters

SUBJ: A fun lil vid to lighten up your Monday

Especially for "The Blues Brothers" movie fans. . .

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0bt9xBuGWgw

Cordially,

John

Subject: Resiliancy

Jerry –

I was moved by the video about the 9/11 boatlift, but couldn’t help an attack of irony at the thought of a "Center for National Policy" that aims to "build the reflexes and instincts necessary at every level of American society to respond quickly and wisely to future crises."

We really just don’t get it, do we?

Your sly reference to Tocqueville was masterful.

David Smith

In flyover country, a safe distance SW of Chicago

Mail 691 Sunday, September 18, 2011

I have this recommended by a subscriber who did not sign the recommendation. You may find it amusing. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=973m9nIQ10k

The Iron Law at NASA

Dr Pournelle

re: https://jerrypournelle.com/chaosmanor/?p=1992

Amen! Preach on, Brother!

Lessee if I heard ’em right. They want a heavy lifter; the analogy on the highways is a Peterbilt. So what fuel do they choose for this truck? Nitromethane, drag racer fuel. Why? ‘Cause the stuff is tricky to work with and requires beaucoup special staff to transport, load, and unload it. And a safety team to watch every step.

Lessee. Space X’s Dragon uses RP-1 kerosene and LOX. Truck fuel, not dragster fuel. Blue Origin’s New Shepard uses RP-1 kerosene and high-test peroxide. Truck fuel. Bert Rutan’s SpaceShipOne used hydroxy-terminated polybutadiene (tire rubber) and nitrous oxide (laughing gas). Not truck fuel, but SpaceShipOne was a one-off vehicle made to win a prize. Virgin Galactic’s SpaceShipTwo uses . . . well, Richard Branson ain’t sayin’ but the smart money is on some similar hydride combo. Not truck fuel, but not dragster fuel either.

Mercury Redstone: ethyl alcohol and LOX. Truck fuel. Mercury Atlas: RP-1 kerosene and LOX (the Atlas is still flying). Truck fuel. Gemini Titan: hypergolics — hydrazine and nitrogen tetroxide (N2O4). Nasty stuff; definitely dragster fuel. This is where NASA departed the straight-and-narrow for the seductive attractions of high-ISP sin. Apollo Saturn V: RP-1 and LOX (first stage) and LH2 and LOX (second and third stages). Truck fuel to start and dragster fuel after that. Another step down the path of high-ISP perdition. Space Shuttle: ammonium perchlorate and aluminum (SRBs), LH2 and LOX (main engines), and monomethylhydrazine and nitrogen tetroxide (OMS). Dragster fuel with JATO and seriously nasty dragster fuel. NASA arrived in rocket fuel Hell. (Am I the only one who remembers the BFRC in downtown Santa Barbara? Surely not.)

We need a trucking company. Trucks use diesel fuel. NASA wants to give us a truck with a NHRA engine. Why? You nailed it, Brother. Jobs for the boys. Can I get an ‘AMEN’? Hallelujah!

The solution to the personnel problem at NASA was articulated by the Papal legate at Beziers.

Live long and prosper

h lynn keith

Heh.

And another, if unrelated, instance of the Iron Law at work:

“Orphanages had gotten used to getting money for international adoption, and all of the sudden they didn’t have healthy baby girls unless they competed with traffickers for them.”

<http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/18/nyregion/chinas-adoption-scandal-sends-chills-through-families-in-united-states.html?&pagewanted=all>

Roland Dobbins

An exception to the Iron Law

Dear Jerry,

I know of at least one exception to the Iron Law of self-perpetuating bureaucracies, because (I am proud to say) my father engineered it.

My father, John Edward Robb, was a crusty old, politician- and bureaucrat-hating, career Army Colonel, who was kicked off the fast track to multiple stars because he told the truth at an inopportune moment. He was the head of our training and logistics operation in Vietnam from 1959-1961, reporting directly to the commanding general of MAAG, and when his initial Pattonesque boss, Lieutenant General "Hanging Sam" Williams, with whom he got along well, was replaced by a misbegotten, self-inflated, ass-kissing toady, Major General Alden K. Sibley (later convicted of misappropriating military funds), and the program deteriorated, my father told the truth about it in his change-of-station report. That was the end of his military career, although he spent several years subsequently in San Francisco, first as the exec of the Overseas Supply Agency, responsible for tracking all Defense Department shipments from stateside bases to the west of the Pacific Coast, and then as exec of the Pacific Coast Terminal command.

Anyway, he then went to work for the state department, as the head of something called the Far East Regional Logistics Office (this was in the immediate post-Vietnam War years). The mission of this agency was to clean up the hardware left over from all our Pacific Wars, dating back to WW2 (my father finished that war as an an artillery battalion commander in the Philippines). Based initially on Okinawa, and then in Tokyo, he spent about six years flying all over the Far East investigating, demobilizing, and in some cases re-allocating military hardware to our regional allies. Then he concluded that the mission was accomplished and recommended its dissolution. Naturally this was strongly resisted, but he flew back to Washington, fought the good fight, and got FERLO laid to rest. I think he was as proud of that as he was of the work he did for its last six years.

I suppose that the moral of this parable is one of your favorite mottoes: despair is a sin.

John B. Robb

The moral of the story is that projects not set up as a bureaucracy can accomplish a lot. Then they go away. We won the Moon Race by building an Army. One can disband an Army, or one can convert it into a bureaucracy. The Iron Law applies to all bureaucracies.

Canada schools broken, too

http://www.forbes.com/sites/leapfrogging/2011/09/15/want-less-inequality-stop-subsidizing-schools-and-universities/

Calvin Dodge

Subject: Creator of TSA Admits Wants to Dismantle It

Ah, the Iron Law at work. The Congressman who wrote the law creating the TSA wants to dismantle the TSA. Guess what happened? The bureaucracy grew like a monster. Who could have possible predicted such a thing? Sigh.

http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20110913/10465415931/guy-who-created-tsa-says-its-failed-its-time-to-dismantle-it.shtml

—

Dwayne Phillips

I recall everyone saying that TSA would be temporary. Das Buros stehen immer.

‘So even though America exports excess dollars to China, China sends them back to finance the U.S. budget deficit — much like marionettes walking off one side of the stage, merely to reappear unchanged on the other side.’

<http://spectator.org/archives/2011/09/13/china-american-financial-col/print>

Roland Dobbins

Jerry,

Subj: The successor to the Attilla the Hun Chair

http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2011/09/17/hacker-makes-conan-barbarian-college-professor/?test=faces

The Lay of Horatius

Dear Jerry,

Thanks for your publishing work and comments on the Roman Lays. I will be presenting the Lay of Horatius to my sixth grade homeschoolers starting their second week of Roman history.

Best,

Barbara

There was a time when all educated people were familiar with Macauley’s Lays of Ancient Rome. Alas, what we have as common knowledge is more likely to be scenes from the Emmy ceremonies.

LA Porn Studio Begins Construction On ‘Post-Apocalyptic’ Underground Bunker « CBS Los Angeles

Jerry,

At least will still have pornography on the day after!

http://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2011/09/14/la-porn-studio-begins-construction-on-post-apocalyptic-underground-bunker/

This of course raises questions about the intellect of mainstream studios, the US Govt and the general public. Is this an example of evolution in action?

Jim Crawford

Now there’s a relief.

NASA Unveils Plans For Deep-Space Rocket

http://space.flatoday.net/2011/09/nasa-unveils-plans-for-deep-space.html

Same old over priced components. SSME’s, SRB’s (segmented of course), and stretched external tanks. Returning to a Saturn 5 type heavy lift vehicle, is great, but what they have proposed is not better than Saturn 5, just more expensive. I guess we can say it’s a step in the right direction.

There are other stories in this section (up one level). The "Liberty" crew resupply vehicle is built by the same old folks (ATK) and is a segmented SRB, of course.

Quote from the first article:

"Senior administration officials say the heavy-lift development program will cost $3 billion per year. That’s about the same amount NASA spent to run the space shuttle program in 2009."

and

"Administration officials said the heavy-lift development program would provide a “stable future” for KSC, Johnson Space Center in Houston, Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Ala., and Stennis Space Center in Bay St. Louis, Miss. – NASA’s four major human space flight facilities."

Pretty much says it all. Please understand that some of my best and oldest friends work there and are very good troops. They would love to innovate and do new things. You can always tell the good folks from the rest, they spend a lot of time trying to work around the system and actually get work done.

If they would give Space X a 3 billion a year contract….

Phil

la Niña

Jerry,

http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/enso/

a very strong La Nina is forecast for this winter.

Jim

But surely the models all take account of such things?

Snitch Society

The latest, laughable bill demands an email. I quipped about a snitch society at other points; the latest attempt is here:

<.> A new piece of legislation being backed by the National Association of Security Companies (NASCO) would encourage Americans to frivolously snitch on each other by providing legal protection for people who report “suspicious behavior” to the authorities.

“The National Association of Security Companies (NASCO) today endorsed the See Something, Say Something Act (H.R. 963), by Congressman Lamar Smith (R—21st District Texas), Chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, calling it sensible policy that expands protections against lawsuits for individuals who provide good faith reports of suspicious terrorist-related activity to an authorized official. The legislation will further encourage citizens to take an active role in reporting suspicious activity without fear of legal retribution,” reports PR Newswire.

The bill (PDF) seems designed to do little else than encourage Americans to frivolously report each other to the authorities for any reason. If someone was certain that they were witnessing suspicious behavior that was likely related to the commission of a terrorist attack, the knowledge that they would have legal protection for reporting the incident would be the last thing on their mind.

In addition, since the threat of being killed by terrorists is less common than being killed by accident-causing deer, intestinal illness or peanut allergies, the government’s aggressive promotion of the See Something, Say Something campaign has no basis in reality.

The campaign is designed to manufacture the myth that terrorists are everywhere and that any kind of mundane behavior could be characterized as suspicious. This is why the federal government constantly needs to reinforce the hoax through enlisting the general public as the eyes and ears of the Homeland Security surveillance state.

The law would provide immunity for anyone who reports “any suspicious transaction, activity, or occurrence indicating that an individual may be engaging, or preparing to engage, in a violation of law relating to an act of terrorism,” which judging by DHS standards and those set down by federal agencies and law enforcement bodies over the last decade, could be classified as almost any behavior whatsoever, including political activism, owning gold, being a Ron Paul supporter, or displaying a political bumper sticker.

So-called “suspicious behavior” as defined by the Department of Homeland Security includes talking to police officers, using cell phones and a myriad of other normal activities. Moreover, the DHS has gone to great lengths to portray white, middle class Americans as the primary terror threat.

By encouraging Americans to frivolously report anything as “suspicious behavior,” the federal government is mimicking the policy of some of the darkest dictatorships in history.

One common misconception about Nazi Germany was that the police state was solely a creation of the authorities and that the citizens were merely victims. On the contrary, Gestapo files show that 80% of all Gestapo investigations were started in response to information provided by denunciations by “ordinary” Germans. </> http://www.infowars.com/law-would-encourage-americans-to-report-on-each-other/

The article has links — I suggest people go to the source and click the blue links (especially if readers believe any content sounds outlandish). One would do well to google the MIAC Report, the DHS Extremism Lexicon, and other documents that the writer of the article assumes readers are familiar with in making statements about Ron Paul support, etc.

—– Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

I recall being taught in grade school that German children were taught in school to snitch on their parents. I believed it then because Sister told us so; I later learned it was quite true. “Everything for the State; nothing against the State; nothing outside the State.” Mussolini taught that to Hitler. Hitler learned it well.

Your article might have been better titled, “The 2013 Tax Tsunami,” a tidal wave that will likely sweep away what’s left of the private sector by then. Which won’t be much, if current policies are not mitigated soon.

I’ve been a small business owner since 1988, and am now a retired high-tech management consultant turned novelist (God’s House). I’m still a small business, and, hence, in the sector both parties profess to be “helping.” It’s remarkable to me how hostile America has become for business, and how Congress and large firms have shifted to Cronyism — approaching Chinese “State Capitalism” (aka, communism) for the socialist/progressive wing of the Democratic Party. Children’s lemonade stands are being shut down and paperback books are being asked to comply fully with the Consumer Product Safety Act of 2008 (CPSIA). Books!!!

I’m being invited to do book signings for desperate small businesses who don’t even sell books or want a cut, they just want the foot traffic. The house of my neighbor has been empty, in foreclosure, and bank-owned for years. He had a thriving business, but went bankrupt when he could no longer get financing for the expensive equipment he configured into systems for his customers.

Except for cronies, little about the expensive Federal programs (e.g., TARP, cash for cars, Stimulus I, or Stimulus II) is helpful to small businesses, who are dying under the weight of oppressive bureaucracy and lack of capital access. The legislation itself is increasingly lethal. I’m reliably informed that Obama’s “Jobs Bill” contains explicit provisions to create a new protected class, “the unemployed.” If this passes into law, should an employer hire someone, but pass over someone who’s unemployed, they potentially violate Federal Law and are subject to being sued for discrimination against the unemployed. What capitalist would dare try hiring someone? Not me. Marx is laughing.

You might want to check this out. “If Obama gives a speech and no one listens, is he still a socialist?”

Sincerely,

John D. Trudel

The easiest way to kill all incentives to hire new workers is to forbid firing them once hired.

9/11 Boatlift 500,000 carried over the water, 

Jerry

I don’t know if you have seen this. Worth watching.

Ed

“I never seen so many boats coming together that fast.”

Here, in its entirety, is the incredibly moving, just-released, Tom Hanks-narrated, 11-minute documentary of the largest-ever evacuation by boat in history:

http://www.smartplanet.com/blog/cities/moving-documentary-of-911-evacuation-by-boat-shows-resilience-of-cities/881?tag=nl.e660

In nine hours, boats streaming in from all over the Northeast evacuated 500,000 people trapped on Manhattan Island by the complete shutdown of all trains and bridges in the wake of the fall of the twin towers. (Compare that with history’s second-biggest evacuation, of 339,000 soldiers and civilians from Dunkirk, in WWII, which took nine days.)

One of the things this event illustrates is that in cities present and future, redundancy is one of the keys to resilience. New York has long neglected its waterfront, and in the face of rising seas it is even occasionally seen as a liability <http://www.smartplanet.com/blog/cities/video-3d-rendering-of-new-york-city-flooding-during-hurricane/813> . And yet without access to the water, a half million New Yorkers would not have made it home on 9/11.

This documentary was produced by Road2Resilience <http://www.road2resilience.com/about-us/> , part of an effort by the Center for National Policy to “build the reflexes and instincts necessary at every level of American society to respond quickly and wisely to future crises.”

Tocqueville would not have been astonished.

New Medical Codes Provide Precision – WSJ.com

Jerry

Now they’ve done it. A medical code for everything! For example, “burn due to water-skis on fire.” I’m not making that up:

http://online.wsj.com/article_email/SB10001424053111904103404576560742746021106-lMyQjAxMTAxMDEwMzExNDMyWj.html?mod=wsj_share_email

Someone had to have slipped that one in as a joke, right? If not, the alternative is worth a shudder. Think of how much of our healthcare dollar will go to coders now.

Ed

Isn’t that wonderful!

The headline says it all.

Regards,

Jim Riticher

Exclusive: Nobel Prize-Winning Physicist Who Endorsed Obama Dissents! Resigns from American Physical Society Over Group’s Promotion of Man-Made Global Warming <http://www.climatedepot.com/a/12797/Exclusive-Nobel-PrizeWinning-Physicist-Who-Endorsed-Obama-Dissents-Resigns-from-American-Physical-Society-Over-Groups-Promotion-of-ManMade-Global-Warming>

Barbarians

Dr. Pournelle:

"A barbarian is beating a woman. A citizen intervenes so that the woman gets away…"

This contravenes the Machiavellian maxim "Never do an enemy a small injury."

The barbarian in question should have been disposed of.

I realize this is not always feasible in the present gentle times.

Jim Watson

Nor was it an option in the situation described. And dispatching a member of the barbarian tribe – read street gang – would be a declaration of war. Never do an enemy a small injury, but one ought to understand the consequences of one’s actions.

Interestingly the police wish to disarm the citizens, saying that we should leave our protection to the professionals, but they are the first to go to court pleading that they have no obligations to defend the citizens, and to defend a policy that puts the safety of the police ahead of that of the public. I understand that there are individual police who do not believe or act that way. I speak of policy, and particularly policies that come up in collective bargaining sessions.

It is certainly possible that the American middle class form a Committee of Vigilance and deal with local gangs. It has happened before in American history. Robert Mitchum and Dana Andrews starred in such stories. But that was in another Century. And of course even barbarians have civil rights.

Mail 691 Thursday, September 08, 2011

I like to boast that this place has the most interesting mail on the net, and it’s true; but I have fallen behind in posting it. This won’t catch up, and worse some interesting mail will have to be posted without comments. Between the weather and other pressures I’ve fallen behind here. I’m dancing as fast as I can…

Letter from England

A comparison of the two countries.

Gasolene prices: about $1.00/quart in Mariposa; about $2/quart in Sunderland. Groceries to feed two for a week: $138/Mariposa; $136 in Sunderland. Prices for comparable houses: $237,000 in Mariposa; $480,000 in Sunderland. Real estate tax: $2600/year in Mariposa; $1800/year (ave) in Sunderland Sales tax/VAT: 9.25% in Mariposa; 20% in Sunderland. State income tax: 10% for a middle class income in Mariposa; 0% in Sunderland Marginal income tax rate for a middle class income: 25% in Mariposa; 40% in Sunderland National insurance/social security: 15.3% in Mariposa; about 20% in Sunderland Medical costs: about 17% of GDP in Mariposa; included in the income tax/national insurance in Sunderland.

Not a lot of news.

Darling: Blair said Brown was like dental treatment without anaesthetic http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2011/sep/02/darling-blair-brown-memoirs

— Harry Erwin, PhD

"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." (Benjamin Franklin, 1755)

Be careful who you take money from

Labour financial sleight of hand to blame (in part) http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/health-news/top-hospital-to-be-closed-as-cash-crisis-engulfs-nhs-2349300.html

—

Harry Erwin

It is Time to Take Federal Insanity Seriously.

Jerry,

The quality of life United States will be little affected by the restriction of the breeding of pet rabbits, or the substantial fine levied on the child who rescued and cared for an abandoned baby woodpecker. So great a Nation will easily survive the closure of the Gibson Guitar factory should the Federal authorities succeed in what is clearly their unstated aim. In any event any shortage of guitars will quickly be corrected as the Chinese increase their production. With the prevailing unemployment rate as it is, throwing Gibson’s employees out of work will not show in the statistics. The shortfall in tax income caused by the collapse of Gibson’s, like the shortfall of the supply of guitars, can easily be corrected by borrowing more dollars from China.

Far more serious is the news that the EPA have brought formal enforcement action against the owner of a feedlot for not keeping a specific pollutant in a pollutant containment zone. This is not some chemical weedkiller with an LD50 measured in micrograms per kilo, it is hay. Yes, sun dried grass. Hay. My mind, as Chamber’s Dictionary has it, "Starts as at a bogle."** Should the EPA’s action succeed, hay making will have to cease and all winter feed grass will have to be turned into silage. I confidently predict that the EPA inspectorate will then turn their attention to the back yards of private houses in their tireless struggle against this newly discovered danger, and the EPA’s need to levy extortionate fines on transgressors. A short course of ECT for selected officials would probably abate this nuisance. With abatement guaranteed if I am allowed choose the applied voltage.

Far more sinister is the appearance of domestic terrorists on no-fly lists. Notably those journalists who have had the temerity to report the solidly fact based failings of the TSA, including the blatant lies that this dubious organization resorts to. Come on America. Get a grip. I grew up in Britain during the Hitler war and still have fond memories of American soldiers in spite of the funny way they spoke, and their funny uniforms. They were generous towards children with their sweets even if they did call them respectively, kids, and candy. These are the people who gave freely of their blood and treasure to defeat fascism. How have such a people’s children and grandchildren have come to such a pass?

Here endeth the rant of John Edwards for today.

**This is Chamber’s definition of the word boggle.

John Edwards

Good rant. Thanks. And here is an example of the Obama jobs program:

Private pools used for public swim meets might have to install or rent lifts for the disabled during events because of recent changes in the Americans with Disabilities Act, an action that could cost metro Atlanta homeowners associations thousands of dollars.

Private pools deal with disabilities act, potential added cost

By Christopher Quinn

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

Private pools used for public swim meets might have to install or rent lifts for the disabled during events because of recent changes in the Americans with Disabilities Act, an action that could cost metro Atlanta homeowners associations thousands of dollars.

CHRIS RANK, Special Neighborhood associations are determining whether their swimming pools are affected by an updated regulation in the Americans With Disabilities Act.

Longshoremen storm Wash. state port, damage RR – Yahoo! News

Jerry

Making good on Trumka’s promise to be Obama’s army

http://news.yahoo.com/longshoremen-storm-wash-state-port-damage-rr-144921214.html

Jim Crawford

Arise ye starvelings from your sluimber, arise ye criminals of want! For reason in revolt now thunders!

The Army goes Droid

We Want Our Smart Phones And We Want Them Now

September 8, 2011: After years of trying to avoid it, the U.S. Army has agreed to quit trying to create a device that does what a smart phone does, but does it on the battlefield. The troops want a combat smart phone, and they have been increasingly critical of army procurement officials. Not just snide remarks in unofficial military message boards (where posters are anonymous, but obviously in the army) but also in the official ones (where you are identified.) Combat veterans can get away with this, and what they are saying is that a combat smart phone is a matter of life or death. So the army has issued a request for combat smart phones. They don’t call them that. Even procurement bureaucrats have their pride. The request is for a NWEUD Nett Warrior End-User Device). The description of NWEUD is for something that sounds like a smart phone. Oh, and it must use the Android operating system……………………….

http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htinf/20110908.aspx

John

Following ISS across the Moon during Transit

Jerry,

Peter Rosen of Sweden took some pictures of the ISS in transiting the moon. He then created a wonderful little film.

FLY ME TO THE MOON on Lunar Photo of the Day <http://lpod.wikispaces.com/September+8%2C+2011>

Regards, Charles Adams, Bellevue, NE

Police called after man butchers cow in his driveway

Jerry,

Been there, done that.

http://www.standard.net/stories/2011/09/06/police-called-after-man-butchers-cow-his-driveway

Why did he need a saw? I’ve never needed one.

Jim Crawford

No one would have called the police when I was young. Ah well.

‘Nor is there any longer reciprocity in our separation of powers. While the other branches cannot enforce their statutes and decisions, the executive now legislates and rules.’

<http://www.newcriterion.com/articles.cfm/The-ruler-of-law-7141>

Roland Dobbins

Imagine what they can accomplish with four more years!

Education

A message from my 14 year old Granddaughter.

Dumb(I mean Dear)_ Teachers/Administrators:

I must inform you that being ‘smart’ isn’t something you can brush off but, being dumb is something you can!! So please!! Stop putting us smart kids with all the dumb ones because we become no longer smart in class and in order for us kids to ‘fit in’ we must act dumb. Acting dumb results in being dumb!! If you want us to succeed in anything at all…then stop putting us in with them!!!!!!

This is what’s wrong with our systems. 100 and below isn’t what a 138 IQ needs to work with.

Carl

Carl Sanders

Cheers and empathy. I have been there. But at least she has the Internet. I had the Encyclopedia Britannica, and afternoon radio…

Video Game Targets ‘Tea Party Zombies,’ Fox News Personalities | FoxNews.com

Jerry,

I know I’ve came across as being excessively willing to cope with anarchy, but this is why I feel resigned to it.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/09/07/video-game-targets-tea-party-zombies-fox-news-personalities/

In context of the repeated threats to gang rape Gov Palin and her daughters, the incitement to violence is rather blatant. (I seem to remember a Queen or Princess of the Britons leading a revolt against the Romans after she was flogged and her daughters were raped by tax collectors…)

If the Burning City is going to burn, then the kinless must be willing to respond in kind.

Jim Crawford

The kinless can either learn to fight, or make common cause with the Lords. Those in thrall have fewer choices than those who are free. See The Burning City

Global Warming

I have several reservations about the global warming hypothesis.

1. A paper, written in 2006, by Essex, McKitrick, and Andresen, correctly questions the fundamental thermodynamic underpinnings of the concept of ‘Global Temperature.’ Andresen is a thermodynamicist at the Niels Bohr Institute in Copenhagen. I read the paper, and don’t see any problems with it. In concluding, the authors, in part remark:

"There is no global temperature. The reasons lie in the properties of the equation of state governing local thermodynamic equilibrium, and the implications cannot be avoided by substituting statistics for physics. Since temperature is an intensive variable, the total temperature is meaningless in terms of the system being measured, and hence any one simple average has no necessary meaning. Neither does temperature have a constant proportional relationship with energy or other extensive thermodynamic properties. Averages of the Earth’s temperature field are thus devoid of a physical context which would indicate how they are to be interpreted, or what meaning can be attached to changes in their levels, up or down. Statistics cannot stand in as a replacement for the missing physics because data alone are context-free."

The global warming enthusiasts, with all their modeling, fail to answer these objections. So I believe your position, that they have not made their case, is defensible.

2. For many years, rhere have been problems with the disagreements between satellite vs. surface measurements. Recently, the paper: “On the Misdiagnosis Of Surface Temperature Feedbacks From Variations In Earth’s Radiant Energy Balance” By Spencer and Braswell 2011″ has recognized that the discrepancy is not going away. Quoting:

Quoting: “The satellite observations suggest there is much more energy lost to space during and after warming than the climate models show,” “There is a huge discrepancy between the data and the forecasts that is especially big over the oceans.”

“The main finding from this research is that there is no solution to the problem of measuring atmospheric feedback, due mostly to our inability to distinguish between radiative forcing and radiative feedback in our observations.”

3. The recently reported CERN experiment, addressing the induction of nucleation via cosmic ray activity suggests a mechanism other than greenhouse gas concentration which could be a significant driver of local surface temperature by directly affecting the Earth’s surface albedo. Now this is work in progress, but such effects are apparently not currently incorporated in the ‘doomsday’ models. The CERN publication states:

The CLOUD results show that a few kilometres up in the atmosphere sulphuric acid and water vapour can rapidly form clusters, and that cosmic rays enhance the formation rate by up to ten-fold or more. However, in the lowest layer of the atmosphere, within about a kilometre of Earth’s surface, the CLOUD results show that additional vapours such as ammonia are required. Crucially, however, the CLOUD results show that sulphuric acid, water and ammonia alone – even with the enhancement of cosmic rays – are not sufficient to explain atmospheric observations of aerosol formation. Additional vapours must therefore be involved, and finding out their identity will be the next step for CLOUD.’

“It was a big surprise to find that aerosol formation in the lower atmosphere isn’t due to sulphuric acid, water and ammonia alone,” said Kirkby. “Now it’s vitally important to discover which additional vapours are involved, whether they are largely natural or of human origin, and how they influence clouds. This will be our next job.”

4. Given that current research is in the process of evolving our understanding of climatic driving processes, it seems inappropriate to conduct witch hunts for ‘deniers.’ At least as far back as Galileo reactionary philosophers have been lashing out at critics with ‘inconvenient’ data. The Ptolemaic armillary sphere displayed at the Museo Galileo in Florence, built by Antonio Santucci, is a magnificent example of a previous attempt of a failed model. The instrument was completed and dedicated in 1593. Galileo went public in about 1610. After which, of course, he was arrested, which is probably what the local goons would like to do with the ‘deniers.’ If you haven’t seen the sphere, its image can be viewed online by googling Museo Galileo.

Best regards,

Bill Graves

There is some controversy over the cited paper, but there is sufficient ambiguity in the data to justify skepticism in the consensus agreements. All the charts show about 0.8 degree rise in a hundred years, then postulate a much higher rate of temperature rise in the 21^st Century. That latter is not obvious in the data.

Subj: FBI Worries: massive EMP Attack

http://blog.heritage.org/2011/09/06/what-does-the-fbi-worry-about/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+FoundryConservativePolicyNews+%28The+Foundry%3A+Conservative+Policy+News.%29

I have been writing about this since 1964, although most of my early papers were classified. If China wants to take Taiwan, they will begin with a nuclear explsion above their Lop Nor test base. That will remove US space assets. Then they can decided what to detonate over Omaha.

Post-American geopolitics

Dear Dr. Pournelle,

I think you will find this essay fascinating.

http://hotair.com/greenroom/archives/2011/09/06/pax-americana-we-hardly-knew-ye/

It traces the actions of many countries as they scramble for a place in a world where America has a greatly reduced role. Some of the more interesting points:

1) Turkey is rattling the naval saber around the Aegean Sea – and is planning to sign a strategic cooperation agreement with Egypt http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/turkey-egypt-to-sign-strategic-cooperation-deal-1.382547  this month. The agreement will reportedly include military cooperation. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who did an interestingly-timed turn in Somalia last month http://theoptimisticconservative.wordpress.com/2011/08/20/as-armed-conflict-erupts-erdogan-demonstrates-his-actual-priority/  , plans to visit Egypt – and, reportedly, Gaza – in mid-September. It’s no accident that Russia and Iran will be celebrating at Bushehr at the same time Erdogan is exercising Islamic leadership in post-Mubarak Egypt.

2) Not unnaturally, Greece has just concluded a security cooperation agreement with Israel http://www.jta.org/news/article/2011/09/05/3089230/greece-israel-sign-security-cooperation-agreement  . Those in the Eastern Mediterranean expect the offshore plans of Cyprus to become a flashpoint, and Israel is a cooperative partner in the Cyprus endeavor, having agreed with Cyprus in 2010 on a maritime boundary and a mutual recognition of seabed claims (and being an offshore gas driller herself). Israel, Greece, and Cyprus have a common interest in both freedom of economic action off Cyprus and reining Turkey in across the board.

3) Central Europeans aren’t taking this trend lying down. In May 2011, the Central European consortium called the Visegrad Group, which traces its modern history to the mid-1930s, decided to form its own military “battlegroup http://blog.usni.org/2011/05/17/the-visegrad-battle-group-a-new-eastern-european-reality/  ” under the command of Poland. (The Visegrad Group consists of Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, and Slovakia.) The land-warfare oriented Visegrad battlegroup will operate independently of NATO.

Interesting times, indeed.

Respectfully,

Brian P.