Category Archives: Mail

Mail 701 Sunday, November 20, 2011

Feeling jaded about the Taj Mahal

Dear Jerry

Saw your link to the Maya Taj Mahal photo– after four decades of tropical sun and rain it needs a new coat of dayglow lime and orange paint to restore it to Magical Realism’s top ten list.

One correction is in order – you give yourself too little credit, as the Peabody Museum of Archaeology and Ethnology at Harvard & the Museum of Fine Arts Boston had you on the books as Associate Field Director of their joint venture, The Mesoamerican Jade Project.

Here for those interested is Bill Broad’s New York Time’s story about the project’s successful, if somewhat delayed conclusion- having gone missing for roughly 25 centuries, the lost jade mines of the Olmecs took a quarter century to track down:

http://www.nytimes.com/2002/05/22/world/in-guatemala-a-rhode-island-size-jade-lode.html?pagewanted=all&src=pm.html

Attached is a picture of the end of the operation- After chasing rumor and reality over hill and dale, including the Sierra de las Minas, where we encountered the standard _Incidents of Travel In Central America_ assortment of mules, jaguars, coral snakes , live angry people with guns and peaceable dead ones without them , we finally got together enough good intel to end up with yours truly resting comfortably atop the the Quebrada Seca Olmec mother lode, a ~100 M3/ 300 tonne blue jade monolith about half way up the side of the Jalapa escarpment, which I arrived at on horseback ( If only we had thought to ask for horses in 1977

!) and dutifully reported in the December 2001 issue of _Antiquity_ — time it would seem makes archaeologists of us all

A fellow name of Helferich is writing a book about jade in Guatemala, with the rather grandiose title "Stone of Kings" but I fear he is in kahoots with the Antigua tourist traps that, absent any jade a Chinese dealer would touch, used high pressure salesmanship to foist ugly high pressure rocks, mostly opaque omphacitites on unsuspecting tourists.

Despite paying pennies per pound for bad jade in the Motagua valley, they are still advertising the products of digs like Don Angel Merida’s backhoe operation as produce of the entirely fictive "Quarry of the Maya Kings"

Russell Seitz

Thanks. It was an interesting adventure, complete with sleeping on top of the Land Cruiser while somewhat poisonous toads hopped about feasting on the cloud of mosquitoes that rose from the lake at dusk.

Letter from England

The economy here seems to be gliding onto a sandbar. At least inflation has dropped to 5%. The expectation is for a double dip recession.

See if you can understand these articles. They’re on pensions in the UK:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/pensions/8899628/Will-the-Chancellor-demolish-pension-tax-breaks.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/pensions/8899230/Squeeze-on-pensions-is-for-greater-good-says-minister.html

—

"Good judgement comes from experience, experience comes from bad judgement." (SLClemens)

Harry Erwin, PhD

How many dips does it take before people begin referring to Depression? Ah well.

Occupy Movement Goes Nuts

<.>

The group plans on disrupting banks, Wall Street, homes of financial CEOs, and whoever else constitutes the top 1 percent of the wealth holders in America. Their message is one of civil disobedience, enabled by a home base surrounding L.A. City Hall that functions

<..>

"There is no debt crisis. There is a revenue crisis. It is in the coffers of the 1 percent," Brito interjected.

</>

http://www.whittierdailynews.com/news/ci_19372839

This is frightening.  Clearly these people are putting out disinformation, misinformation, or they are speaking anything that sounds like it will fly.  If you confiscate all wealth of the top one percent, you will not even get one year’s GDP.  Then, after you confiscate that wealth how will you turn it into more wealth?  How will the former elite — now that they have no wealth? 

The statements from the article suggest that Occupy enthusiasts believe the top 1% in the list of successful Americans deserves negative sanction.  Why not use the courts, ballot box, and legislative bodies?  I think more thought, consideration, and communication is necessary.  So far, I see angry people who don’t seem to have the bile or zest to figure out what they’ve been screwed out of and whom screwed them.  The "movement" never dicusses these points.

—–

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

Movements never discuss such matters. And of course the Occupy enthusiasts no sooner draw attention before they are diluted and swamped by hangers on as well as organized groups. It’s a very old political tactic used by both Communists and Fascists between the wars among other times: let someone else draw a crowd, then go exploit the attention.

Deutschland, Deutschland, ueber Alles.

<http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/284656/Germans-try-to-kill-off-pound>

—

Roland Dobbins

The art of economic warfare is not lost…

One Nanosecond

You will of course have realized, perhaps belatedly, that either your recollection or Adm. Hopper is wrong.

One nanosecond is 299.8 mm, 5 mm. less than a foot. It is perhaps too bad that we went to the metric system before getting a good handle on the speed of light. One foot = one nanosecond at c would have been a nice, unambiguous standard.

By a curious coincidence, Thos. Jefferson’s suggested definition of a foot — one-fifth of the length of a uniform bar that beats one second when suspended as a pendulum — is a good bit closer to a nanosecond at c than it is to the current value of a foot.

Regards,

Ric

Ric Locke

I plead temporary insanity. Of course you’re right. I still have my nanosecond, but I haven’t looked at it for twenty years. I should have gone to the trophy case and dug it out. Thanks. And Grace Hopper was never wrong. And alas, that wasn’t the only lapse this week:

Evolution and light speed 

Dear Dr. Pournelle,

I read Chaos Manor today with interest, and this one snippet you posted caught my eye:

"I have yet to see a report of actual information travelling faster than light in these experiments, but that would be the obvious next experiment. If information is sent faster than light, the theory of evolution is in need of drastic revision, and theories like Petr Beckmann’s entangled gravitational fields as a form of aether bear examination."

Having read this, I have a simple question.

Why, exactly, does the theory of evolution need revision if information can be sent faster than light? Normally I understand what you’re talking about, but I’m afraid I need some education this time.

Many thanks if you can assist.

Respectfully,

Brian P.

The answer is nothing, of course. I meant Relativity. I should take more time proof reading. In my defense at least I managed to name an important theory. Just the wrong important theory. Evolution is hardly in danger from CERN.

Georgetown University suggests reading comes from memorization

http://explore.georgetown.edu/news/?ID=60788&PageTemplateID=295

"WASHINGTON, D.C. — Skilled readers can recognize words at lightning fast speed when they read because the word has been placed in a visual dictionary of sorts, say Georgetown University Medical Center <http://gumc.georgetown.edu/> (GUMC) neuroscientists. The visual dictionary idea rebuts the theory that our brain “sounds out” words each time we see them…"

And of course this is a repeat of the study done generations ago that caused the educationists to denounce teaching phonics. Of course experienced readers do not “sound out” words. Over time they learn words about the same way that Chinese learn to read classical Chinese script, or Egyptians read hieroglyphs, of for that matter, readers of languages with a phonetic alphabet such as the Phoenicians have been reading their languages for over two thousand years. The phonetic revolution made it possible for everyone to learn to read, and to read words that they had never seen before: with a phonetic language you can say words you have never seen written before, so that your “reading language” and your “speaking language” are the same. Over time those who read learn the words, and don’t have to “sound them out”, but every now and then they may see a word they haven’t seen in a long time, and they may have to attack it with phonic skills. But the geniuses in the departments of education decided that since mature readers don’t sound out words, there was no point in teaching kids how to do that, thus neatly converting phonetic English into an ideographic language like Chinese or Egyptian hieroglyphics, and setting reading education back by two thousand years. California managed to go from the highest literacy rate to way down below average by forbidding the teaching of phonics in public schools. A generation of teachers grew up unable to teach phonics because they had never learned them.

The creature who imposed this idiocy on the State has since apologized, and I suppose he was sincere, but I don’t accept his arrogant apology. He was told better at the time.

You can find out more on this at http://www.readingtlc.com/ which is the web site for my wife’s reading program. It is a systematic phonics program that works, and if you know anyone from age 5 to adult who needs to learn to read English, this program will do the job. It has taught thousands, and in California after they had 20 years in which teaching reading was in effect outlawed by arrogant professors of utter ignorance, it has been damned well needed.

So I see the drum rolls are starting again?

So precisely how do science students read polymorphicnitrotoluene and other such words that they have never seen before? Only a damned fool thinks that people sound out all the words they read. But there is no shortage of idiots in education schools. I expected better from Georgetown.

gun protection from TSA

Note that, per the TSA website, having a gun in hard-sided locked luggage doesn’t mean they can’t open it. It just means you have to go watch them do it and give then the key. This will still keep your items from being stolen–the airline never gets the key–but it’s not a magic way to keep the screeners from going through your luggage. (indeed, it’s probably more of a way to *ensure* that they go through it.)=

M

Water Does not prevent dehydration

http://www.foxnews.com/health/2011/11/20/business-leaders-will-reportedly-face-jail-time-for-claiming-water-prevents/?test=latestnews

J

Not all the dolts are in departments of education.

occasional success stories

there are occasional success stories. For example, the Dallas News reports on the stunningly good math and reading test scores achieved by third-grade pupils at Field Elementary school. There was a minor downside, though. They achieved those high math and reading test scores by devoting essentially all of their effort to teaching these kids math and reading, which of course meant they had to skip science and other subjects almost entirely. Not to worry, though. The kids still got grades in those other subjects. Of course, those grades were faked, sometimes assigned by teachers who’d never even taught the subjects in question. If I had school-age children, I’d do whatever it took to either homeschool them or get them into private schools. I don’t believe public schools–any public schools–can any longer be trusted to educate kids.

http://www.ttgnet.com/journal/

Some aren’t dolts.

Newborn Pentagon DNA database exposed in Supreme Court

Another tip of the iceberg that may interest the curious:

<.>In a long running case, a Supreme Court has ruled to limit the use of blood samples collected from newborns by the government.The case has exposed the fact that there is an ongoing semi-covert movement by state and federal governments to claim ownership of every newborn baby’s DNA for the purpose of genetic research without the consent of individual citizens. The Minnesota Court ruled Wednesday that the Minnesota Department of Health is violating the law in storing, using and disseminating newborn screening test results and newborn DNA. Overruling a lower court’s decision, the state Supreme Court found that the samples are “Genetic Information” under the State Genetic Privacy Act, and held that “unless otherwise provided, the Department must have written informed consent to collect, use, store, or disseminate [the blood samples].”</>http://www.infowars.com/supreme-court-blocks-government-plan-to-claim-ownership-of-dna/

This is one of those "conspiracy theory" issues; look at that it wasn’t a theory after all it’s what happened.  —–

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

Unexpected bio details,

Jerry

Biographical bits have the oddest way of turning up. Not long ago I re-read a lovely book called Queens Die Proudly, a 1943 book written by W L White, the man who wrote They Were Expendable. Like that book, Queens Die Proudly became a movie, the forgettable “Air Force.” Unlike the movie, Queens Die Proudly is fascinating, a look at B-17’s in the Philippines at the beginning of the war, and the American involvement in trying to stop the Japanese in what is now Indonesia. But toward the end is a bit about LBJ, of all people (the excerpt is from page 263 and pp. 266-267):

“A man doesn’t know what distance means until he flies that end of the world,” said Red, the crew chief. “Remember the time we had to make a forced landing right in the middle of the place?”

“I’ll never forget,” said Charlie, the bombardier. “It was about the time of that Buna business.”

“We had left Darwin,” said Red, “and were flying across the Australian desert headed for Cloncurry. We had umpty-ump rank aboard, about Sixteen in all—General Royce, General Perrin, General Marquat, and some Australians—Air Marshals they probably were—and also Lyndon Johnson, a big lanky guy from Texas, a real Congressman, only now he was out inspecting this area as a Navy Lieutenant Commander.

“Well, we’re flying along over this wilderness which looks like the rumpled parts of New Mexico or Arizona, heading, we think, for this Cloncurry, only our arrival time goes by, and no Cloncurry. <snip> (p 263)

“. . . and in about a minute there was quite a bump, but still it was a perfect three-point landing. In four seconds the Major had her rolling smooth. The ground was soft. Twenty-five tons is a lot of bomber, and her wheels began to sink in about six inches. But the Major could sense this, so he gave gas to all four engines to keep her rolling, and taxied her up to high ground hard enough to hold her up.

“We get out. Pretty soon Australian ranchers begin crawling out of holes in the ground—I don’t know where else they came from—and right away Lieutenant Commander Johnson gets busy. He begins to get acquainted. They tell him where we are and some of them go off to get a truck to take us into town where we can telephone, and more keep coming, and Johnson is shaking hands all around, and he comes back and tells us these are real folks—the best damn folks in the world, except maybe the folks in his own Texas. Pretty soon he knows all their first names, and they’re telling him why there ought to be a high tariff on wool, and there’s no question he swung that county for Johnson before we left. He was in his element. I know he sure swung the Swoose crew. He can carry that precinct any day.”

“Listening to him made us all homesick,” said Frank, <snip> (pp. 266-267)

I wonder, did any of LBJ’s biographer’s get this bit?

Ed

I have never heard that before.

World of Warcraft Wealth Survey.

<http://xsinthis.net/2011/11/report-world-of-warcraft-wealth-survey/>

Roland Dobbins

And yet another beauty from APOD

The Butterfly Nebula from Hubble

http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap111113.html

This site ( Astronomy Picture of the Day –

http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/astropix.html )

is well worth bookmarking, and is a hell of a lot better way to start the day than any of the media sites.

FYI – 🙂

—

Paul Gordon ( http://paulinhouston.blogspot.com/ )

"When faced with a problem you do not understand,

do any part of it you do understand; then look at it again."

(Robert A. Heinlein – "The Moon Is A Harsh Mistress")

Mail 700 Wednesday, November 09, 2011

Not surprised

Dr. Pournelle —

I can’t say I’m surprised by this. I know some who welcome such behavior.

"China Threatens Massive Venting of Super Greenhouse Gases in Attempt to Extort Billions as UNFCCC Meeting Approaches"

" In the run-up to the international climate negotiations in Durban later this month, China has responded to efforts to ban the trading of widely discredited HFC-23 offsets by threatening to release huge amounts of the potent industrial chemical into the atmosphere unless other nations pay what amounts to a climate ransom. "

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-threatens-massive-venting-of-super-greenhouse-gases-in-attempt-to-extort-billions-as-unfccc-meeting-approaches-2011-11-08

It never works to pay the Danegeld.

Pieter

And then there’s this:

Severe Defense Problems

This is a problem I’ve known about for years; you’ve been aware of it for at least a year — I emailed about this before.  Well, our government is still "talking" and "writing" about it:

<.>

"Sprinkling" sounds like a fairly harmless practice, but in the hands of sophisticated counterfeiters it could deceive a major weapons manufacturer and possibly endanger the lives of U.S. troops.

It’s a process of mixing authentic electronic parts with fake ones in hopes that the counterfeits will not be detected when companies test the components for multimillion-dollar missile systems, helicopters and aircraft. It was just one of the brazen steps described Tuesday at a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing examining the national security and economic implications of suspect counterfeit electronics – mostly from China – inundating the Pentagon’s supply chain.

</>

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_MILITARY_COUNTERFEIT_PARTS?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2011-11-08-13-41-48

—–

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

It is a traditional Chinese business practice to establish relations with a customer, then slowly over time degrade the product delivered until the customer complains. This is described in stories out of China dating back hundreds of years, involving both British and Japanese customers. It was not considered unethical by Chinese merchants.

But of course we now get a lot of our electronics including military electronics from Chinese factories. And most of our Internet stuff including routers.

NCDC data shows that the contiguous USA has not warmed in the past decade, summers are cooler, winters are getting colder

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/11/05/ncdc-data-shows-that-the-contiguous-usa-has-not-warmed-in-the-past-decade-summers-are-cooler-winters-are-getting-colder/

"So according the the National Climatic Data Center, it seems clear that for at least the last 10 years, there has been a cooling trend in the Annual mean temperature of the contiguous United States."

I was also interested in the discovery that 1934 was hotter than 1998 before it was cooler.

Graves

The evidence continues to come in: it’s not getting hotter just now. We are not on as long a cooling trend as we had in the 1970’s that caused so much concern about the possibility of a New Ice Age, but it has been a decade. Whether that applies to the entire Earth is a matter not easily settled because the average temperature of the Earth depends more on your model – the weights given to certain observations, whether you take air temperatures in the shade or exposed to the radiant environment, etc. – than anything else. By manipulating the samples and the weights you can get a significant change in the overall average temperature.

I think we can say that the way to bet is a slow rise in temperature since 1800 at about a degree a century; and superimposed on that linear model is the cyclical solar sunspot cycle; and over that a longer cycle whose cause we don’t know yet. We think it’s warming, but over the millennia we are still in an remission of a longer Ice Age. I don’t think the climate models know how to deal with that.

What Was Life Like In The Little Ice Age? – Part I

http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2011/11/01/what-was-life-like-in-the-little-ice-age/

Life during the little ice age, both old world and new, northern and southern hemisphere.

For those who think it was just Europe.

Don’t be suprised if this winter is exceptionally cold, there is considerable data to show that we are in for a mild liltle ice age for the next several decades caused by a solar quieting which will likwely go for at least two solar cycles *we are not halfway through the first one yet, the next will be colder), and this winter we are into La Nina, which always results in cold. Individual results in differenct areas of the world may vary.

Legatus

So far as I can tell, there are enough fudge factors in the samples and weights used to calculate average temperatures to allow considerable swings in the final averages. I conclude that I do not ‘believe’ in any model that cannot take initial conditions in 1900 and output something similar to what was observed; I certainly would not trust such a model to predict the temperature in 2100. Why should I?

I am aware of the arguments that say there are no other factors involved so the models have to be more or less rights, but I am not convinced. I don’t know if we know all the factors. Arrhenius calculated some ‘extra’ warming would happen in the 20^th Century due to industrial CO2, but I have yet to see that anyone has shown more warming in the 20^th Century than there was in the 19^th.

On the coming ‘Cold Fusion’:

Rossi’s E-Cat

Dear Dr. Pournelle,

Just FYI, Rossi has a very, um, colorful past. He has been convicted and served prison sentences at least twice, once for smuggling gold, and once for claiming to have a process to convert garbage into oil (Petroldragon), which according to prosecutors, consisted of adding lime to the waste before dumping it in a landfill.

He also claimed to have invented a thermo-electric "heat-to-electricity" device that was five times more efficient than anything available. He convinced the Army to put money in to it, but never produced a working device. Here’s a link to the Army’s report: http://dodfuelcell.cecer.army.mil/library_items/Thermo(2004).pdf

Sincerely,

John Bresnahan

I have no more information. I do know there are Rossi believers and Rossi deniers, and I know people in each group.

CERN FTL Data Accumulation

Jerry,

Concerning the letter today regarding the observation of apparent FTL neutrinos being a "statistical fluke," I think they were referring to the observation from the Dutch scientist that you posted at https://jerrypournelle.com/chaosmanor/?p=2624 .

(link to http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2394747,00.asp#fbid=iYm2szmfdD7 dated 15 October)

That said, I’ve been checking the CERN web site and have come across:

http://cdsweb.cern.ch/journal/CERNBulletin/2011/45/News%20Articles/1394597?ln=en

Posted 7 Nov 2011: since 21 October CERN has been conducting test runs of an approach to obtain better timing definition for next year’s larger run of induced neutrino measurements.

http://cdsweb.cern.ch/journal/CERNBulletin/2011/44/News%20Articles/1392338?ln=en

Posted 24 Oct 2011: Theorists have been looking at the data, but "(currently) there is no theoretical model that can accommodate the measurement." This reports a workshop on theoretical explanations on 14 October, before the ostensible date of publication of the Dutch paper.

So bottom line CERN has not yet accepted the "Dutch paper" as a contra-indication.

Jim

So we can hope the FTL is real, although I would not advise anyone to bet it that way.

Hello Jerry,

How could ANYONE speak harshly about a government that provides a service like this?:

http://thenewamerican.com/usnews/health-care/8294-walnuts-are-drugs-says-fda

It is examples like this that provide affirmation, as if any were needed, that a government (like our current one) that consumes 50% or more of the gross national product is, by all rights, just a START.

One can only imagine our idyllic existence when it has, finally, expanded to 100% and provides optimum solutions to ALL our problems. Or at least all of them that anyone is willing to complain about in public.

Bob Ludwick

The Iron Law in action. The government engages in a very large number or activities that we don’t need and can’t afford. Some are silly. Not news but we often need reminding.

Letter from England

The risk when a government releases a computer virus to the wild–people will copy it. http://preview.tinyurl.com/44kowgr

The UKBA decided to imitate the TSA, and ended up in a pit: http://preview.tinyurl.com/6g64tr7

Bankers challenged by Church for having slipped their moral moorings. http://preview.tinyurl.com/6fbxloz

Patent bubble? http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/11/04/is_there_a_patent_price_bubble/

Mandatory teacher training for university academics? http://www.timeshighereducation.co.uk/story.asp?sectioncode=26&storycode=418019&c=1

Visa casualties: http://www.timeshighereducation.co.uk/story.asp?sectioncode=26&storycode=418020&c=1

—

"We do not understand how a country,… can produce people who seem to be acting without thinking, let alone making serious efforts to investigate the consequences of their actions." (Mary Evans in the Times Higher Education)

Harry Erwin

UAVs & Pilots

Common sense has no place in military thinking.

http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htairfo/articles/20111107.aspx

Cheap energy = prosperity!

Drill here, DRILL NOW!

David Couvillon

Colonel, U.S. Marine Corps Reserve, Retired.;Former Governor of Wasit Province, Iraq;Righter of Wrongs; Wrong most of the time;Distinguished Expert, TV remote control;Chef de Hot Dog Excellance; Avoider of Yard Work

We devoted some space to the operations and doctrines requirements for employing a strategy of technology in, guess what, The Strategy of Technology by Possony, Pournelle, and Kane.

does this bear hate Quantas?

Dr. Pournelle,

Possible "Koala?" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bear_cuscus

-d

Coup Against Google

The coup against Google forms in 2011:

<.>

Yahoo Inc , Microsoft Corp and AOL Inc have set up an advertising partnership as Google and Facebook’s online ad dominance grows.

</>

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/08/microsoft-aol-yahoo-idUSN1E7A724520111108

Make no mistake, this begins cooperation, communication, and consensus among three major Google advesaries — this could be a serious concern for Google in years to come. If this alliance could get Apple on board, this would be a commanding, powerful alliance. I do not see an alliance with MS and Apple, however. Though, I believe with Steve Jobs — and his historical conflicts with Bill Gates — out of the way this might be possible. It will be interesting to see what shape Apple takes with Jobs gone — both in terms of products and business strategies. But, anyone who knows the history of windows development, etc. knows that Jobs would never work with MS — never.

—–

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Interesting questions. We can wait and see…

One WTF item and something pretty cool

Not sure if you heard about this story:

http://blog.heritage.org/2011/11/08/obama-couldnt-wait-his-new-christmas-tree-tax/

It sounds like something completely unnecessary. Of course, this is just one more example of the Iron law.

On a lighter note, a pretty cool rendition of "Welcome to the Jungle":

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_AYEgwwCYWw&feature=share

Erik

Bunny Inspectors on steroid megadoses?

You thought bunny inspectors were bad? Wait until you see the Christmas Tree Commission.

http://blog.heritage.org/2011/11/08/obama-couldnt-wait-his-new-christmas-tree-tax/

Res ipsa loquitur, or some such.

Hm. Maybe some disgruntled Muslim could make a case for this being a clear violation of separation of church and state, Christmas being a religious holiday and all that…

John

I understand that President Obama has removed the Christmas Tree Tax, but I am not sure. Thanks

iPAD Halloween Costume

Jerry,

You may remember that I was struggling to find a real use for the iPAD. Well, this engineer may have just the thing:

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-501465_162-20127922-501465/a-bloody-incredible-ipad-halloween-costume/

Tracy Walters

Jerry,

Subj: A blind spot for wind energy

http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2011/11/05/wind-farms-disrupting-radar-scientists-say/

Jim

There are places where wind makes sense, but not so many as most think. Intermittent power requires storage capabilities which generally cost more than the power itself.

Subject: Record flight is step toward HYPERSONIC SPACE AIRSHIP

I suggest going to the site, there are some interesting animations:

Tracy Walters

Original URL: http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/11/02/space_airships/

Record flight is step toward HYPERSONIC SPACE AIRSHIP Ion-drive dirigibles to orbit from aerial ‘Dark Sky’ base By Lewis Page <http://forms.theregister.co.uk/mail_author/?story_url=/2011/11/02/space_airships/>

Posted in Space <http://www.theregister.co.uk/science/space/> , 2nd November 2011 13:02 GMT <http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/11/02/>

Inventors in America are claiming an altitude record for airships after a recent test flight in which an unmanned electrically-propelled helium dirigible successfully manoeuvred under power at 95,085 feet above the Black Rock Desert in Nevada. The "Tandem" craft is intended to demonstrate the first stage of radical plans which would see enormous, permanently inhabited "Dark Sky Stations" floating high in the atmosphere at the edge of space – to act as bases for radical hypersonic airships which would slowly fly themselves into orbit over a period of days using hybrid ion drive propulsion.

Somewhat more conventional extreme-high-altitude airships along the lines of the Tandem, flown above Nevada on October 22, would serve as shuttles carrying people and cargoes from the surface up to the colossal, mile-wide Dark Sky air/spaceports floating at 140,000 feet up.

The "Airship to Orbit" scheme comes to us from American DIY volunteer space collective JP Aerospace <http://www.jpaerospace.com/> [1], founded by engineer John Powell, which has been developing high altitude balloons, rockets and combo rocket/balloon missions (aka rockoons, or in the parlance of our own Special Projects Bureau, ballockets) since 1979. JP Aerospace has now moved on beyond conventional rockoon flights to work on the use of small unmanned Dark Sky Stations <http://www.jpaerospace.com/dssoverview.html> [2] as bases for vertical rocket launches starting from high up on the edge of space.

Both the Tandem and the prototype Dark Sky Station already flown use conventional helium balloons for lift, linked together by lightweight carbon-fibre trusses slung beneath. The Tandem features electrically driven propellors designed for the thin air found up at 100,000 feet and higher. One particularly neat trick is JP Aerospace’s use of tied-down bags on the ground in which to inflate their balloons, meaning that there’s no need to wait for windless conditions to make a launch.

Future manned ground-to-Dark-Sky ships and Dark Sky bases would use similar but more polished structures which would resemble huge cylinders of helium with lightweight keels running along them. Technically the ships would not be blimps – that’s the term for airships without a rigid structure, which maintain their shape purely by internal pressure – but semi-rigids.

According to Powell, the two different types of ship and the intervening aerial base stations are vital as neither craft could survive the flight regime of the other. The vast, flimsy orbital vessels would be torn apart by the dense winds of the lower atmosphere, and the sturdier surface-launched jobs could never reach orbital velocity.

Behold the Mach 20 hypersonic hybrid ion rocket semi-rigid airship!

The underlying concepts at least of the surface-to-base craft and the Dark Sky outposts themselves seem to be feasible, but JP Aerospace has understandably yet to really do much in the way of flight tests on the mighty orbital rocket airships. Are they really feasible? Can massive gossamer envelopes full of helium gradually boost themselves up to Mach 20+ using slow-acting electrical ion drives (such as those used <http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/04/07/goce_engines/> [3] to keep low-flying satellites up to orbital speed despite drag from the upper traces of the atmosphere)? Even though there’s very little air up there, surely a giant, hypersonic rocket airship is a big ask.

Powell recently gave an interview <http://nextbigfuture.com/2011/10/floating-airship-could-radically-reduce.html> [4] on the subject to nextbigfuture.com, in which he points out that upper-atmosphere weather balloons have already achieved Mach 10 as long ago as the 1960s, so that in his view Mach 20 isn’t impossible with modern materials. In fact in his judgement what’s called for is not a super-low-thrust but ultra-efficient ion drive, nor a conventional chemical rocket, but rather a hybrid of the two – which he describes as "the most efficient chemical rocket ever, or the least efficient ion rocket". The key issue will be whether enough electrical power can be stored at a low enough weight – either using fuel cells or batteries, solar panels can’t do the job – to get the ships up to orbital poke. One cunning aspect of the plan is that the ships will not need any heat shield for re-entry as they will slow down so gradually (using drag in the evanescent upper atmosphere) that no appreciable heating will result.

Powell and his crew certainly don’t lack for ambition. The idea is that the mighty Dark Sky floating spaceports would also carry telecoms equipment and tourist hotels to generate additional revenue on top of that gleaned from orbital launch. Their analysis suggests that the hypersonic airships could haul cargo into space for as little as $100 per pound in the near term and eventually just $1 per pound – and Powell sees manned flights to the Dark Sky region as soon as 2013, and permanent inhabited bases there from 2021. He says that JP Aerospace never makes a flight unless it will pay for itself, with revenue coming so far from advertising, telecoms experiments and aerospace tests for companies such as Lockheed.

It’s interesting stuff, but progress has been slow – 33 years after commencement Powell and Co and are still doing small unmanned tests on the more achievable parts of their scheme. Larger craft such as the "Ascenders" – more like the massive V-shaped craft envisaged for the future ground-to-Dark Sky leg – are not flying at the moment. We probably shouldn’t hold our breath waiting for the hypersonic space airships.

Even so, Powell’s team is plainly one to watch, especially in light of the Reg’s own aspirations <http://www.theregister.co.uk/science/special_projects_bureau/> [5] in the rockoon/ballocket space plane arena.

Professor fired

Professor fired for making students think?

http://www.good.is/post/was-a-professor-fired-for-requiring-students-to-think/

–Gary P.

—————-

Is this a consequence of the government getting involved in employment

relationships? Where hiring and firing decisions are based upon evidence,

not good judgment. So objective criterion is needed.

Mail 699 Wednesday, November 02, 2011

Professor fired for making students think?

http://www.good.is/post/was-a-professor-fired-for-requiring-students-to-think/

–Gary P.

When I was in the professor business, all my senior classes were done on the Socratic model. I also gave essay exams, not multiple choice. And I sent more students to graduate schools than most of those around me.

Cardinal Pell on Climate Change: selling Carbon Credits is like selling Indulgences

http://www.thegwpf.org/international-news/4214-cardinal-pell-carbon-credits-like-medieval-indulgences.html

>>Sometimes the very learned and clever can be brilliantly foolish,

>>especially when seized by an apparently good cause. My request is for

>>common sense and more, not less; what the medievals, following

>>Aristotle, called prudence, one of the four cardinal virtues: the

>>recta ratio agibilium or right reason in doing things. We might call

>>this a cost-benefit analysis, where costs and benefits are defined

>>financially and morally or humanly, and their level of probability is

>>carefully estimated.<<

Note the link, after the end of the article, to the PDF of the full lecture.

But wait! There’s more!

http://www.cartoonsbyjosh.com/GWPF.html

Rod Montgomery==monty@starfief.com

A very sensible essay. Thank you.

Global Warming: Another Take(s)

Hello Mr.Pournelle,

It might be worth going through this lengthy post at Watt’s Up With That for further insight on the Muller flap:

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/10/29/uh-oh-it-was-the-best-of-times-it-was-the-worst-of-times/#more-50286

Keep up the good work,

ECM

BEST temperatures

Regarding the latest triumphalist bleat, a couple days ago, I posted on my blog a couple links:

Does This Bother Anyone?

Should it?

a) Lead Author on definitive paper http://www.informath.org/apprise/a5700/b1101.pdf

b) is president http://www.mullerandassociates.com/richardmuller.php of a consulting firm http://www.mullerandassociates.com/index.php

c) That makes its money on the fruits of such papers http://www.mullerandassociates.com/sectors.php .

Caesar omni suspicione maiores debent esse uxorem.

+ + +

The question is whether the business of Muller & Associates in any way colors the president’s approach.

I’m not sure why the press is calling him a "skeptic." At most, we was simply not over-the-top the way alarmists are. He is in the same set as Curry and the two Pielkes. The warming is real, but how much is due to mankind, and how bad is it, really? Very few of the skeptics have ever denied that the earth has been warming. In fact, they are likely to point out that it has been doing so for 400 years. And they will point to factors that have been neglected or dismissed by the modelers.

The announced results regarding station quality and urban heat island also seem beside the point. Neither of those is likely to obliterate the trend. They would only affect the magnitude of the "anomalies" (residuals). IOW, if a station is sited on concrete, the temps from that station will likely be higher, but if the lower tropospheric temperature is trending upward, it will trend upward whether the measured temperatures are biased or not.

One of the four papers leaked to the media ahead of peer review deals with their measurement method. I haven’t sat back and digested it yet, but for those interested, it is here: http://berkeleyearth.org/Resources/Berkeley_Earth_Averaging_Process

It would also seem that Judith Curry, listed as second author (alphabetical order), has been distancing herself from at least some aspects of these reports.

Mike

Study of CO2 and ocean "acidity", been done.

"What surprises me is the lack of concern about CO2 and ocean acidity. That, it seems to me, is potentially a greater danger than any warming trend, and I don’t see a lot of studies of that."

Check it out http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/10/25/the-reef-abides/#more-49971 .

A study of CO2 and "ocean acidity" which shows that the previous doom and gloom were vastly overrated.

First, there is no "ocean acidity", the ocean is alkaline, more CO2 (and it takes a LOT more) merely makes it a little less alkaline. But hey, "ocean neutrality" just doesn’t have the same sex appeal, right? In fact, more CO2 , the ocean gets closer to true neutrality, and it’s effects are actually lessened.

The above study demonstrates the serious problem with former studies, these studies were far too short, they did not give time to see if the corals being studied would be able to adapt. This study went for 6 months, and it showed that given time (and a far shorter time then the 100 year predictions of climate catastrophe) the coral adapted and showed absolutely no ill effects. You need to understand that during the time that all this sea life has been around, the atmosphere has had periods when it had far more CO2 than now. There have been times during the existence of corals, for instance, when the atmosphere had 5 times the CO2 as now at 3 times the atmospheric pressure. This is true for corals, and it is also true for other sea life, as well as land based life. If more CO2 was going to kill us all, it would have already done so many times over. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Phanerozoic_Carbon_Dioxide.png

If you believe in "ocean acidification", then you must believe this:

Too much carbon dioxide will kill all the coral.

The atmosphere has had far more carbon dioxide in the past.

That means that in the past, all the coral died.

So there is no coral.

What you think is coral is just a cleverly manufactured tourist attraction.

"Basically, you’re just bitter," said Tom acidly.

Legatus

I am hardly an ocean ecology expert, and what I know about it come mostly from science magazines, not journals. Thank you. One the advantages of being me is that someone will ask good questions if I say something that I should have given more thought to. I think I had not known that we had periods of that much CO2 during the life of the coral’ the fact that coral survived that is cheering. Thank you.

Global warming, scientific heresy & confirmation bias

Text of an excellent lecture given at the Royal Society in Scotland by Matt Ridley, well worth a read.

http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2011/11/1/scientific-heresy.html

‘In conclusion, I’ve spent a lot of time on climate, but it could have been dietary fat, or nature and nurture. My argument is that like religion, science as an institution is and always has been plagued by the temptations of confirmation bias. With alarming ease it morphs into pseudoscience even – perhaps especially – in the hands of elite experts and especially when predicting the future and when there’s lavish funding at stake. It needs heretics.’

cheers

Norman

Norman Hills

Subj: Global warming controversy continues

http://www.express.co.uk/features/view/280948/Is-global-warming-over-

"Prof (Richard) Muller, of Berkeley University in California, and Prof (Judy) Curry, who chairs the Department Of Earth And Atmospheric Sci(ences at America’s Georgia Institute of Technology <http://www.express.co.uk/features/view/280948/Is-global-warming-over-#> , were part of the BEST project that carried out analysis of more than 1.6 billion temperature recordings collected from more than 39,000 weather stations around the world.

Prof Muller appeared on Radio 4’s Today Programme last Friday where he described how BEST’s findings showed that since the Fifties global temperatures had risen by about 1 degree Celsius, a figure which is in line with estimates from Nasa and the Met Office.

When asked whether the rate had stopped over the last 10 years he said they had not. “We see no evidence of it having slowed down,” he replied and a graph issued by the BEST project suggests a continuing and steep increase.

But this last point is one which Prof Curry has furiously rebuttted. In a serious clash of scientific experts Prof Curry has accused Prof Muller of trying to “hide the decline in rates of global warming”.

She says that BEST’s research actually shows that there has been no increase in world temperatures for 13 years."

Jim

http://www.drroyspencer.com/

Blog post: Brrr..the Troposphere is Ignoring your SUV (30OCT2011)

Jim

It does make one wonder about the consensus.

And now a long screed from a confirmed Doubter:

Confused Muller recants?! Slams Gore & Climategate — ‘I never said you shouldn’t be a skeptic. — Reality Check: Muller Did Say that: ‘Let me explain why you should not be a skeptic’

For latest, go to www.ClimateDepot.com

Confused Richard Muller now claims: ‘I never said you shouldn’t be a skeptic. I never said that’ — Reality Check from his article: ‘Let me explain why you should not be a skeptic’ http://www.climatedepot.com/a/13517/Confused-Muller-now-claims-I-never-said-you-shouldnt-be-a-skeptic-I-never-said-that—Reality-Check-from-his-article-Let-me-explain-why-you-should-not-be-a-skeptic  

Muller did say, ‘you should not be a skeptic’ — and so he told an unambiguous falsehood to the interviewer http://www.climatedepot.com/a/13528/Muller-did-say-you-should-not-be-a-skeptic-mdash-and-so-he-told-an-unambiguous-falsehood-to-the-interviewer 

Warmist Muller: Scientists ‘Endorse Al Gore Even Though They Know What He’s Saying Is Exaggerated and Misleading’ http://www.climatedepot.com/a/13538/Warmist-Muller-Scientists-Endorse-Al-Gore-Even-Though-They-Know-What-Hes-Saying-Is-Exaggerated-and-Misleading 

‘He’ll (Gore) talk about polar bears dying even though we know they’re not dying’

Muller: Climategate a ‘scandal’, ‘terrible’, ‘shameful’ ‘Some people say that I proved there was no Climategate. No! The Climategate thing was a scandal’ http://www.climatedepot.com/a/13529/Muller-Climategate-a-scandal-terrible-shameful-Some-people-say-that-I-proved-there-was-no-Climategate-No-The-Climategate-thing-was-a-scandal 

Muller on Climategate: ‘It was terrible what they did. It was shameful the way they hid the data’

Muller: ‘The rise in temp is small, 1.6 degrees, but it is real…We’re not sure how much of that is due to humans but the global warming models predict that it would be about that much’ http://www.climatedepot.com/a/13531/Muller-The-rise-in-temp-is-small-16-degrees-but-it-is-realWere-not-sure-how-much-of-that-is-due-to-humans-but-the-global-warming-models-predict-that-it-would-be-about-that-much 

Muller trashes WashPost’s Eugene Robinson: Muller is asked: ‘WaPo’s Eugene says what Dr. Muller says proves that these skeptics are wrong and they gotta get on this cap-and-trade train’ http://www.climatedepot.com/a/13530/Muller-trashes-WashPosts-Eugene-Robinson-Muller-is-asked-WaPos-Eugene-says-what-Dr-Muller-says-proves-that-these-skeptics-are-wrong-and-they-gotta-get-on-this-capandtrade-train 

Muller responds: ‘Uh, that’s ridiculous’

Muller’s BEST Research Team Can’t Find ;Accelerating’ Warming — Instead, Confirms Recent Global Cooling http://www.climatedepot.com/a/13527/Mullers-BEST-Research-Team-Cant-Find-Accelerating-Warming–Instead-Confirms-Recent-Global-Cooling 

Climatologist Dr. Pat Michaels: ‘The last ten years of the BEST data indeed show no statistically significant warming trend, no matter how you slice and dice them’ http://www.climatedepot.com/a/13526/Climatologist-Dr-Pat-Michaels-The-last-ten-years-of-the-BEST-data-indeed-show-no-statistically-significant-warming-trend-no-matter-how-you-slice-and-dice-them 

‘The policy significance of BEST will be nil because the length of time it will take re-establish a warming trend since 1996 is too long to politically support any expensive intervention’

BEST statistics show hot air doesn’t rise off concrete! It’s OK to pretend to be a skeptic in order to get a headline pushing your favorite religion’ http://www.climatedepot.com/a/13525/BEST-statistics-show-hot-air-doesnt-rise-off-concrete-Its-OK-to-pretend-to-be-a-skeptic-in-order-to-get-a-headline-pushing-your-favorite-religion 

‘It’s ok to release press releases about half-baked conclusions, and claim you aren’t trying to get media attention, and then disagree with the conclusions you stated yesterday. You are trying to save the world, lies are ‘forgiveable’

Climate Audit’s McIntyre on Muller: ‘BEST’s attempt to claim the territory up to & including satellite trends as unoccupied or contested Terra Nova is very misleading’ http://www.climatedepot.com/a/13524/Climate-Audits-McIntyre-on-Muller-BESTs-attempt-to-claim-the-territory-up-to–including-satellite-trends-as-unoccupied-or-contested-Terra-Nova-is-very-misleading  

‘Unfortunately, BEST have not lived up to their commitment to transparency in this paper. Code is not available. Worse, even the classification of sites between very rural and very urban is not archived, with the pdf of the paper disconcertingly pointing to a warning that the link is unavailable (making it appear like none even read the final preprint before placing it online.)’

Climate Audit’s McIntyre on Muller: ‘The new temp calculations…shed no light on proxy reconstructions & do not rebut misconduct evidenced in Climategate emails’ http://www.climatedepot.com/a/13523/Climate-Audits-McIntyre-on-Muller-The-new-temp-calculationsshed-no-light-on-proxy-reconstructions–do-not-rebut-misconduct-evidenced-in-Climategate-emails 

‘One great regret about BEST’s overall strategy…the actual best way to improve quality of temp reconstructions from station data is to really focus on quality, rather than quantity…They adopted the opposite strategy (a strategy equivalent to Mann”s proxy reconstructions). Throw everything into black box with no regard for quality and hope the mess can be salvaged with software.Unfortunately, it seems to me that they failed in this objective and actually end’

Climatologist Pielke Sr.: Muller’s ‘BEST overstated completeness of their study. They have not yet examined all aspects of station quality, homogenization, urbanization, & station selection’ http://www.climatedepot.com/a/13516/Climatologist-Pielke-Sr-Mullers-BEST-overstated-completeness-of-their-study-They-have-not-yet-examined-all-aspects-of-station-quality–homogenization-urbanization–station-selection 

Muller’s study ‘failed to adequately consider the range of issues that are yet to be resolved. and have prematurely reported their findings and conclusions both in their submitted papers and in their media interactions’

Muller refuted: ‘How is it headline material when someone who was never a skeptic pretends to be ‘converted’ by a result that told us something we all knew anyway?’ http://www.climatedepot.com/a/13512/Muller-refuted-How-is-it-headline-material-when-someone-who-was-never-a-skeptic-pretends-to-be-converted-by-a-result-that-told-us-something-we-all-knew-anyway 

Scientist slams Muller as a ‘charlatan from a California University who attempted to pull off one of the most transparent scams in science history…he was nailed for his nonsensical and unethical comments to the press’ http://www.Real-Science.com/colorado-slammed 

Run away! Muller backs off attack on skeptics http://www.climatedepot.com/a/13508/Run-away-Muller-backs-off-attack-on-skeptics 

Muller’s new version of events: ‘I was saying you can no longer be skeptical about the fact global temperatures have risen over the past 50 years. There are other aspects of climate change which are still uncertain as I have made clear.’

‘But in his Wall Street Journal oped, Muller wrote: ‘But now let me explain why you should not be a skeptic, at least not any longer’

Mark Morano

Global cooling

Jerry,

You were worried about ‘global cooling’ the same time that I was in graduate school and a ‘cooling’ denier. Reid Bryson was the expert who gave the idea credibility and he didn’t make that mistake twice (http://www.americanconservativedaily.com/2007/06/reid-bryson-takes-on-global-warming/) . He is mentioned in Schneider’s book.

You and I and Schneider and Mead et al. remember the cooling.

And from the NAS:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Global_cooling.jpg

Fortunately it has been minimized by all groups:

http://www.earthtimes.org/climate/berkeley-warm-up/1540/

Makes you wonder what all those people were getting excited about way back when.

The BEST papers were rushed. Why?

"Second, the reason for the publicity blitz seems to be to get the attention of the IPCC. To be considered in the AR5, papers need to be submitted by Nov, which explains the timing. The publicity is so that the IPCC can’t ignore BEST. Muller shares my concerns about the IPCC process, and gatekeeping in the peer review process."

From Judith Curry’s conversation with Muller: http://judithcurry.com/2011/10/30/discussion-with-rich-muller/#more-5540

She is the second author on the papers.

The papers seem to be changing over time:

"Re the recent trend, Muller reiterated that you can’t infer anything about what is going on globally from the land data, but the land data shows a continued increase albeit with an oscillation that makes determining a trend rather ambiguous. He thinks there is a pause, that is probably associated with AMO/PDO. So I am ok with this interpretation.

With regards to the BEST data itself and what it shows. He showed me an interesting graph this is updated from the Rohde article, whereby the BEST data shows good agreement with the GISS data for the recent part of the record. Apparently the original discrepancy was associated with definition of land; this was sorted out and when they compared apples to apples, then the agreement is pretty good. This leaves CRU as an outlier." [see Curry link above.]

-Joe

I admit that back in the 70’s I believed that the Ice might be coming back, because after all we are in the middle of an Ice Age. What startled me was the work of a Belgian scientist whose name I have forgotten – Daniella something – who found from the study of lake sediments that England and the Channel areas went from deciduous trees to under many feet of ice in under one hundred years, and possibly even quicker, back at the onset of the current Ice Age (in which we are enjoying a temporary respite).

I also know that the long term trend since about 1800 has been warming at about 1 degree per century, and that’s probably the way to bet now. And finally I note that it’s pretty cold in much of the US, but that’s weather, and there’s lots of snow but that’s ocean conditions which are certainly not affected by what they are calling ‘climate change.’ Climate is what you predict. Weather is what you get. Or is that too glib?

Radiation is good for you

Dr. Pournelle,

Thought that you’d appreciate this story I caught on BBC news this morning:

_Japan MP Yasuhiro Sonoda drinks Fukushima water_

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-15533018

The news readers are making a big deal about the MP’s hand tremor when pouring the water, but watching the clips, I think that they’re making too much of it.

I think that drinking the water to demonstrate its safety is probably meaningless, and is not a choice I would have made, but perhaps there’s a little of the Bushido code that would make the man do this on a dare.

On the other hand, if this develops into a fad among politicians here in the U.S., I’ve a little list.

-d

The evidence for hormesis is piling up. One of these days I will do a full report on it.

Runnin’ guns

Hello Jerry,

Wonder when it will occur to some enterprising journalist that ‘Fast

and Furious’ was never about identifying drug kingpins, or whatever

the ostensible cover story was.

The whole intent was to covertly arrange for the guns to cross over

into Mexico, where they would inevitably be used in crimes. On

investigation, the guns would be traced to US dealers who sold them

to criminals not legally authorized to purchase them or to straw

buyers who in turn transferred them to the criminals. Upon learning

this, cries of outrage would be heard across the land, demanding

stricter gun control in order to prevent such tragedies. And of

course 90% of the Democrats and 49.75% of the Republicans would be

happy to oblige.

Unfortunately (for the ATF and the Obamunists), an American citizen

got killed, someone blew the whistle, and we learn that it was a

government sponsored program, with government funds in some cases

used to make the ‘illegal’ purchases. But the ‘find the kingpin’

story continues unquestioned.

Bob Ludwick

I do not necessarily accept your analysis, but as my paranoid psychotic friend says, “It fits…”

Koala Kookery?

Jerry,

Last I heard, the koala subsists on the leaves of the Eucalyptus.

Under the assumption that that is correct, wouldn’t they then taste of cough drops?

I recollect from my youth–a bit more recent than your own–a Christmas tree farmer who, after allowing hogs to run about the tree lot, slaughtered the hogs straight off the tree log without the important step of feeding them corn for a couple of weeks, resulting in meat that tasted strongly of Blue Spruce.

Charles Krug

I have heard no more of the cooking Koalas story, and I continue to doubt that Oz exports them and almost certainly not at a price that would allow them to be sold for 25 bucks to be broiled; and I do wonder who would eat one. But I have heard neither confirmation nor refutation of the story.

In response to my inquiry about whether Australia really would ship out Koalas to be eaten one of my readers from Oz says

Hadn’t heard that one at all until I read your post, and was understandably horrified by it. We do barbeque kangaroos here though…

Cheers

Mike

Hobby pursuits as legitimate college degrees?

Stabbing in the dark looking for answers / explanations, this thought came to me after lunch today.

How many of our ‘unemployable’ college graduates (with their student load burden) in this country pursued their personal hobby interests as a college degree path? What kind of adult leadership or influence set them on that path?

While rigorous STEM education is essential for any industrialized country, a good dosing of liberal arts (small l, small a) is equally essential as a humanizing balance to the hard sciences. But the other way around? Hardly seems to be a viable career move. The larger majority of the classic sad stories you hear are of liberal arts PhDs working in food service. Or hotel housekeeping. The number of similar sad stories involving folks with those dreaded (and somewhat less feel-good) Bachelor of Science degrees may be vanishingly small…….

In the late (cough cough) 1970s I played around with the idea of tossing my technical studies out of the window in favor of other, low-stress paths that I was already talented in (music, photography) before coming to my senses.

I doubt that any number of college credentials in those feel-good areas would have let me travel the world for 20 years continuously, live for extended periods on five continents, visit all seven, be part of the end of the Cold War (remind me to tell you an interesting-scary story regarding serial/vehicle numbers on SS-20 TELs), return to the ‘states, build a rather nice home, drive paid for autos, care for my aging parents, and finally, play music to my hearts content with my college alumni marching band **and** work as a paid photographer photographing some of the most spectacular sporting and cultural events around. All the while working at a full-time job in technology management.

Sure the TV and press are full of stories about the successful and well-paid liberal arts major making millions. But as a percentage of those who aren’t making millions (or even a reasonable wage) how many are there, really? For every TV personality, celebrity chef, or travel channel host parading the Good Life, how many thousands or hundreds of thousands of people are saddled with worthless degrees whose financing is now coming due and must be paid for?

Nope. The basis for my life has been a paid-for college degree in a hard science/technology discipline earned very early in life. Once that was in hand, I had the career and cash flow to do what I wanted to do where I wanted to do it.

My story is not unique. Yet it’s not being told at all.

Best…….

Chuck Kuhlman

I told my children as they were growing up that the best I could wish them is that 85% of the time they would be able to be places and do things that they liked. Some of us manage to do better than that. Most do not do that well.

Mail 698 Friday, October 28, 2011

Subj: Video: MIT and Harvard economists: "Attention: Deficit disorder!"

http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2011/federal-deficit-panel-1006.html?tr=y&auid=9754887

I was disappointed — but not really surprised, alas! — that none of the participants mentioned (much less agreed with) Milton Friedman’s observation, that the burden on the economy is *not* the deficit, but the *spending*. Getting to a zero deficit with government spending eighty percent of GDP will not be an improvement.

Rod Montgomery==monty@starfief.com

One needs a degree in economics (which assumes all kinds of behavior and non-interference from politics before its moels are of any use at all) to believe that one can continue to spend more than you have and not get into trouble. Now there is a difference between borrowing as an investment and borrowing for current expenses, and an even greater difference between borrowing for investment and borrowing for a pleasure trip or a vacation or for luxuries or even “just to have a little better standard of living.”

When I was at Boeing I decided that the space program, which I vigorously supported (and I was on the Boeing team for both space and space proposals) – I decide that the space program’s problems were political not technical. We knew how to do this stuff. Boeing was willing to pay so long as I got my work done. I chose political science rather than economics because it was clear to me that economics was more concerned with its models than with reality. It was also clear that politics trumped economics every time, and understanding politics would be a requirement for getting the space program going.

But I did spend some time trying to understand economics, at least as a practical matter. One observation: Boeing required new hires in the factory are to have their own basic tool kit. The company provided heavy tools, but your basic aviation mechanic tool kit was up to you (just as I had to buy my own stethoscope, but that’s another story). There was a company on Boeing property that would sell you the approved tools for not much down and a monthly paycheck deduction. It was a concession, not owned by Boeing, and how company management chose that company I don’t know; but it illustrated borrowing for investment. If you had a job as an aviation mechanic and didn’t have the tools – most new hires came out of high school and this was often a first job so few did – then it made a lot of sense to borrow a good bit of money in order to have the tools of the trade. Boeing’s advantage out of that was that you had a big incentive to keep your job: Boeing was the only aerospace job in Seattle, and there were lots of recruiters trying to get trained Boeing workers to move to Southern California. (One got to me eventually; but I’ve told that story before. Boeing and I parted company on good terms.) Factory workers who hadn’t paid off their tool kit investment had a good incentive to stay with Boeing at least long enough to get that paid off. The point is that the tool kit was a good investment well worth borrowing money for. It would not have made sense to borrow that much money for a trip to Los Vegas.

I discovered that it took a long time of elementary economics theory study before you got to one that understood that principle. There were other such principles that everyone knew, but economics formally didn’t until you got really advanced.

Political philosophy made more sense.

It still does, but I am astonished at how many political theorists believe that economics understands as much about economics as an experienced aviation mechanic does. The difference is that the mechanic is persuaded that the professor knows more than he does. Don’t we wish…

But we have tried Keynes, and the theory that frivolous spending can stimulate an economic boom. It didn’t and doesn’t. And buying a county a year’s worth of new hire police who will then have to be paid out of new local taxes after the first year makes sense only if your goal is to raise taxes. The goals of most of the new economic plans it to continue the monotonic rise in spending. Jobs would be nice, but the spending seems to be the real goal.

We all know that low taxes (having the US occupation force pay for your defense helps a lot), and economic freedom and produce an economic miracle. And we need one. It is a bit harder for us because we need the military in this dangerous world; but that’s all the more reason to cut needless spending on what is as best a luxury. Whether or not bunny inspectors do any good for the bunnies, they certainly are a drain on the rabbit breeding business. And that’s just a trivial example. There are far larger ones. And none of them can be cut.

And just in, Huntsman on Too Big to Fail

http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204346104576635033336992122.html?mod=opinion_newsreel&mg=reno-wsj 

Cold fusion tested commercially

Dear Dr Pournelle,

perhaps you’ll find this interesting:

http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2011-10/28/cold-fusion

Like the FTL neutrinos, fascinating if true.

Regards,

Rolf Andreassen.

I would love for it to be true, but I get about 20 cold fusion alerts a year and have for a decade. Alas none actually work out. One was intriguing enough that I got someone I trusted to pay a visit to the place. The chap had overlooked an energy source. Alas. Most don’t get that far.

I have heard much about the Bologna experiment, but I have seen little reproducible data. Alas.

Switchblade Secretly Sent To Afghanistan

October 28, 2011: The U.S. Army <http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htweap/20111028.aspx> recently revealed that it sent some Switchblade UAV systems to Afghanistan last year, for secret field testing. This was apparently successful. It appears that Switchblade is currently used largely by Special Forces and other special operations troops. In September, it was announced that, after a year of successful testing, the army was ordering over a hundred Switchblade UAVs for troop use.

The Switchblade is a one kilogram (2.2 pound) expendable (used only once) UAV that can be equipped with explosives. The Switchblade is launched from its shipping and storage <http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htweap/20111028.aspx> tube, at which point wings flip out, a battery powered propeller starts spinning and a vidcam begins broadcasting images to the controller. The Switchblade is operated using the same gear the larger (two kg/4.4 pound) Raven UAV employs.

Switchblade can also be launched from the 70mm rocket tubes used on army helicopters. Moving at up to a kilometer a minute, the Switchblade can stay in the air for 20-40 minutes (depending on whether or not it is armed with explosives.) The armed version can be flown to a target and detonated, having about the same explosive effect as a hand grenade. Thus the Switchblade could be useful for ground troops, to get at an enemy taking cover in a hard to see location. Switchblade completed development <http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htweap/20111028.aspx> two years ago. Technically a guided missile, the use of Switchblade as a reconnaissance tool encouraged developers to refer to it as a UAV.

http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htweap/20111028.aspx

John

I need to think about this one.

What the US could learn from the British Empire

The desire to send you this link – perhaps you have already seen it –

drove me to re-subscribe: happy to be on board once more!

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/oct/27/what-america-could-learn-from-the-british-empire-f/

Best,

Geoff

Welcome aboard again. And yes, there are things we can learn from the Brits. As we learned from Thatcher.

You Just Can’t Make This Stuff Up

Jerry,

While we all try and remember that ‘Despair is a Sin’, and try to figure out just where we are going and why we all in this handbasket, it is possible to find considerable wry amusement by reading the headlines in the various newspapers.

From today’s Washington Examiner:

"Muslims at Catholic University complain about crosses

And the DC Human Rights Commission is taking it seriously."

Does this mean the service academies are in jeopardy since attendance at Chapel is mandatory??

Warm Regards,

Larry Cunningham

Subj: Methinks Ms. Noonan finally gets it

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203554104577002262150454258.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEADTop

The Divider vs. the Thinker

While Obama readies an ugly campaign, Paul Ryan gives a serious account of what ails America.

I mentioned this in today’s View.

Anthropogenic Climate Change

Regarding climate change; it is interesting to me that a major source of anthropogenic climate change – and this time one that is real and just about undeniable – is being studiously ignored. Perhaps because there is a cultural angle, and it is one that tends against "traditional" cultures particularly in the fringes of the Sahara.

One of the major causes of desertification is overgrazing by domestic animals, in areas already marginal at best such as the Saharan fringes. This has been going on for millennia. The only real way around this is to change the culture of the relevant areas; and this is precisely what the PC brigade (who are quite ready to make massive changes to Western culture for far less provable reasons) don’t want to admit.

Regards, Ian

Ian Campbell

One of the first things I learned in undergraduate ecology from Rufus King was the role of the goat in the climate change that took the North African coast from being a breadbasket to a near desert. Climate change indeed. Bring in the goats and see what happens. But I doubt that is studied any longer.

Goats, unlike cattle or even sheep, are extremely efficient at eating all the vegetation, including digging up – rooting out – the roots. The result is that the rain runs off, the land gets drier and hotter, the clouds stay higher and drop less rain, and — well you get the idea. It can be described in good mathematical models, provided you know the prevailing wind patterns. Of course this can alter the wind patterns, but not always. Sometimes the feedback is positive, as it was in parts of North Africa. Bring in the goats and make your own desert.

Brooklyn man pleads guilty to trafficking black market kidneys to N.J. residents,

Jerry

Brooklyn man pleads guilty to trafficking black market kidneys to N.J. residents:

http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2011/10/man_pleads_guilty_in_human_org.html

How does Larry feel about having predicted organlegging?

Ed

Ay yi yi yi, in China they do it for chili

Of course there is the question as to which clause in the Constitution makes this a federal matter? Why should I not have the right to sell my organs? But assume that it’s your business, it’s a matter for the states, not the feds.

Cockpit tour of the Dreamliner

The new Dreamliner’s cockpit looks quite plush and fancy. I like the

cushy seats, but didn’t see anywhere to hang the fuzzy dice safely.

http://www.wired.com/autopia/2011/10/cockpit-tour-of-all-nippon-airways-boeing-787-dreamliner/

–Gary P.

The Midwest from the ISS, including the Aurora

Jerry,

Here is a nice picture from the ISS. I rather like it since my stomping grounds are in the shote.

Regards, Charles Adams, Bellevue, NE

<http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=76201>

"….This astronaut photograph highlights the Chicago metropolitan area as the largest cluster of lights, next to the dark patch of Lake Michigan. The other largest metropolitan areas include St. Louis, Minneapolis-St. Paul, and the Omaha-Council Bluffs region on the Nebraska-Iowa border. The northeastern seaboard lies just beyond the Appalachian Mountains, a dark winding zone without major cities….

….In addition to the major metropolitan areas, the rectangular north-south-east-west layout of townships is clearly visible in the rural, lower left of the image. This pattern instantly gives the sense of north orientation (toward the top left corner) and is a distinctive characteristic of the United States that helps astronauts quickly know which continent they are flying over at night…."

Old College Professors

Your recent mention of a teacher’s remark about that Buck Rogers stuff and remembering it many years later reminded me of something one of my college professor said after I gave a speech about orbiting space stations in 1952. Mine didn’t quite turn out that way. Not long after, I dropped out of college to become an Aviation Cadet and enter pilot training. After finishing my five year tour in the AF, I took a job writing Pilot’s Handbooks at McDonnell Aircraft.

Von Braun was one of the principle authors of a small book titled Space Medicine. I used it as the basis for one of my talks in public speaking class at Virginia Tech. The title of my speech was One Thousand Miles Up and was about orbiting space stations. After the talk, the Professor remarked that it was an interesting speech but he didn’t expect to see it in our lifetime. Eight years later I finished my job as writer of the Project Mercury Astronauts Handbook and returned to Virginia Tech to finish my last two years of college. I looked up my old Professor and ask if he remembered my speech. He laughed and said no, but that was what he would have said in 1952.

Chuck Anderson

Re: Government Economic Stimulus Analogous to Bloodletting

Jerry,

Iain Murray, in a letter to the editor at American Spectator, writes that the government economic stimulus programs are quackery as medical bloodletting was. He also advocates for the replacement of GDP – Gross Domestic Product – with GPP – Gross Private Product. GPP would exclude government mandated transactions (he cites the purchase of ethanol in fuel), instead including only those presumably entered into freely.

While GPP might be an imperfect measure it probably is more relevant that GDP. More importantly, he points out that the practice of bloodletting continued well beyond when it was discovered to be misguided, just as has Keynesian’s view of economic stimulus.

http://spectator.org/archives/2011/10/25/stimulus-delusion

Regards,

George

Sounds about right.

An excellent article by Victor Davis Hansen:

http://pajamasmedia.com/victordavishanson/rage-on-and-on-and-on/?singlepage=true

Of course, you could have written it almost verbatim.

Phil

Hansen and I often are in agreement.

Strange Hollows Discovered on Mercury – NASA Science,

Jerry

Strange Hollows Discovered on Mercury:

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2011/24oct_sleepyhollows/

Just amazing what new stuff pops up when you go out and just look.

Ed

I have no idea what to make of this, but it’s intriguing. Perhaps as a story idea…