Category Archives: Mail

Mail 710 Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Textbooks and memory

You said: "It used to be that textbooks were used for a long time. Now

they can be revised by “revision” with changes in text and emphasis

happening in hours."

I’ll note that as an asthmatic boy in a farming area, I spent much of

one of my early summers indoors, reading through my fathers’ elementary

school history textbooks (all eight grades worth) in their entirety. He

went to a one-room schoolhouse in the early Cold War period, and his

family was required to purchase his textbooks rather than having them

provided. Which is how I ended up on the living room floor with them,

reading in air-conditioned splendor. Those textbooks were an excellent

introduction to American history, because they presented it as a

coherent and easily-remembered story first and foremost, starting early

on and ending with (if I recall correctly), World War 2. They definitely

had their share of politically correct nonsense–the Spanish-American

War was caused by the sabotage of the /Maine/, for example. But learning

that version of history first, followed by my "modern" public-school

texts was an excellent education in some important fundamentals. Having

noticed the factual differences between the two versions, I had to

conclude at a young age that the "facts" I was being taught were not

immutable. Further, the confusion registered by adults when I asked

about the differences brought the conclusion that I had to puzzle

through the inconsistencies on my own.

I eagerly anticipate electronic textbooks, but I told that story to

emphasize that there is some value to the earlier versions of textbooks.

Political manipulation aside, I’d hate to see older versions made

inaccessible. There is value to old textbooks simply as a record of what

people wanted their children to learn.

Neil Tice

I have and am about to put up as a Kindle book (it’s public domain, of course) an old California 6^th Grade reader, with stories and poems which at the time were known to everyone with a grade school education. We still need continuity. Some things change, though.

Re: textbooks

Dear Dr Pournelle,

Steve Jobs observed in his bio that the process by which states certify textbooks is deeply corrupt. Richard Feynman, who examined California textbooks in the 60s, and was horrified by what he found, describes the process in-depth in his essay "Judging a book by its cover", available in the excellent "Classic Feynman" anthology.

Perhaps our state’s budget crunch will cause it to revisit the cozy kleptopoly of textbook publishers, and consider the option of publicly financed ones distributed electronically instead. I am not holding my breath.

—

Fazal Majid

Or perhaps the state will work a magic in which every high school graduate owes an enormous debt to government, thus completely converting all citizens into bondsmen.

Jerry,

When the textbooks for one semester in college combine to the price of a basic iPad (or more sophisticated Android-based device such as my new Lenovo) the economics of buying textbooks electronically changes.

I note from my searches on Amazon that the Kindle versions of technical books and texts run at about a 25% discount of the dead tree version. That would still pay for two or three high-end iPads over four years of college.

Jim

Security Theater Showdown

Jerry,

As of about an hour ago, the TSA detained US Senator Rand Paul at the Nashville Airport for refusing a "patdown", IE an invasive groping search, according to Senator Paul’s staff.

Good on him for refusing consent. TSA will no doubt attempt to resolve this without setting any precedent. Let’s see how this turns out for the Senator, and then consider whether we should insist on equal treatment.

Update: He’s now reported by the TSA to have walked away from the security check-in area voluntarily – http://www.businessinsider.com/breaking-rand-paul-has-been-detained-by-the-tsa-at-nashville-airport-2012-1. Stipulating the inadvisability of unreservedly believing the TSA, it looks as if the penalty for refusing consent to a grope may now be to catch a later flight. Unless the TSA is going to openly decide to treat Senators differently from the rest of us?… It’d be awfully hard to get word out to all the minions on such without leaving a paper trail.

Perhaps we’ll need lots of volunteers with a modicum of patient stubbornness (and tolerance for travel delay) to emulate the Senator and clog up the system. I’m not sure if I’m volunteering – yet. But this situation bears watching.

And the 4th Amendment is worth it.

sign me

Porkypine

Rand Paul incident

From what you posted, it doesn’t sound like he was detained for very long. Here we might want to apply some common sense. Guy makes a stink about a pat down at an airport check point, then claims he is a US Senator, maybe even flashes the right kind of ID. Now are the people at that check point familiar enough with congressional ID’s to know if this is legit documentation. Do they know Rand Paul well enough to ID him on sight? Are they expected to be able to identify on sight, and without error, all 535 members of Congress? At the very least, there would have to be some consultation with superiors, perhaps a phone call or two has to be made, at least to verify his identity and figure out what is supposed to happen. All that would take some time, and that does not strike me as unreasonable.

Also, it is not clear from the passage you posted that there is a constitutional guarantee of access to a plane flight, or to any particular form of transportation. I don’t think that denying him boarding on a plane is quite the same thing as detainment for questioning or arrest. If they simple turned him away at the gate, and then let him leave the airport to seek other passage (after taking sufficient time to verify his identity), I think his constitutional rights would have been preserved.

And does making a stink at the checkpoint, and refusing to comply with the directives of the TSA constitute a "Breach of the Peace", which might make you subject to arrest?

craig

Rand Paul

You write in response to mail, “I really haven’t time to give this the commentary it deserves because it is so stunning. To begin with of course is the plain language of the Constitution regarding Senators and Members of Congress travelling to or from the national Capital. I can understand Senator Paul’s reluctance to invoke his Constitutional immunity from this sort of treatment but he should have done so.”

Generally I agree, and have as much disgust for the TSA as anyone who flies these days. However, in this case, I wonder about rushing to judgment. The constitution language is, as you point out, clear, “…during their Attendance at the Session of their respective Houses, and in going to and returning from the same; and for any Speech or Debate in either House, they shall not be questioned in any other Place.’ “

The fly in the soup is that Senator Paul was traveling to Washington, when he was detained. He noted earlier on his Twitter that he was planning to speak at the March for Life. While the TSA probably would not have known that, the Senator certainly would, and since HE knows the constitution, probably knew that he may not have been entitled to immunity under Article I.

Chuck Ruthroff

Plausible TSA scenario

"I wonder if a fiction scene in which the US Army overpowers a local TSA despoty on Constitutional grounds would be good reading? It would certainly be fun to write."

How about a TSA screener getting out of hand and every person in line begins recording the event on their cell phones. The agent(s) demand that the passengers stop recording, but there aren’t enough security personnel to prevent them. TSA gets more and more irate, eventually going over the deep end. Within minutes the event is all over YouTube, Twitter, etc., plus one of those recording is a close relative of someone with influence. Throw in a local police officer with no love for the TSA leaving on his vacation.

This is a scenario that is just waiting to happen.

The clock is ticking.

TSA vs.Military

"I wonder if a fiction scene in which the US Army overpowers a local TSA despoty on Constitutional grounds would be good reading? It would certainly be fun to write."

Sir:

While it did not involve the TSA, I recall hearing of an incident in which a USAF team was transporting a Minuteman ICBM to an operational silo. A local law enforcement officer took note of a nonfunctioning tail light on the missile transporter, turned on his lights and siren, and pulled the convoy over to give the Air Force a warning. In very short order he was surrounded by USAF Security Police with automatic weapons, taken into custody, and transported to and locked up in an Air Force detention facility. Thereafter it became common practice for such USAF convoys in that area to receive a civilian police escort. I think that under similar circumstances the TSA – or for that matter the FBI – would fare just as well, if they were lucky.

Also, back in the early 1980’s a friend of mine had bought a North American T-6 WWII vintage trainer from the Haitian Air Force and while moving it back home flew it into an airfield in South Florida. The tailwheel tire failed during the landing and he told the control tower he would have to pull off the taxiway in a remote area of the field because he had a problem. Soon after climbing out of the airplane – and in the process of taking a leak – he was surrounded by black clad hooded men with automatic weapons who shouted various somewhat contradictory instructions (E.g., "Don’t Move! Put up your hands! Who are you? Shut up!). He finally was allowed to produce some identification, which happened to include a red cover US Government passport (he had recently been employed by NASA, for a number of years). Seeing the US Government passport the black clad ninjas with the burp guns put two and two together – and appeared to get 22 as the answer. As in Unmarked military aircraft! Red passport! Oh kee-rap! We have just jumped the CIA! They departed at high speed before he could even ask for a lift to the inhabited portion of the airport to purchase a new tire. That would be a fun scene to write, too!

Best Regards,

Wayne Eleazer

Chris Dodd and The MPAA –

I don’t know if you caught this little gem about Chris Dodd, former Senator and CEO of the Motion Picture Ass. of America. He seems a little upset the the politicians he bribed, err, gave donations to, backed away from the legislation his paid toadies had tried to shove through, after vociferous objections by many.

“Those who count on quote ‘Hollywood’ for support need to understand that this industry is watching very carefully who’s going to stand up for them when their job is at stake," Dodd told Fox News http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EoATjTI-_NA . "Don’t ask me to write a check for you when you think your job is at risk and then don’t pay any attention to me when my job is at stake.”

The comments caused a huge stir, and prompted a petition https://wwws.whitehouse.gov/petitions#%21/petition/investigate-chris-dodd-and-mpaa-bribery-after-he-publicly-admited-bribing-politicans-pass/DffX0YQv , hosted on the White House’s "We the People <https://wwws.whitehouse.gov/petitions> " opinion-seeking site, that calls for an investigation of the MPAA on bribery charges.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/01/23/mpaa_bribery_petition_white_house/

A warning? More like The Godfather.

Dave

Dodd and Kennedy. They understood what lobbying was about.

Dallasblog.com, the Dallas, Texas news blog and Dallas, Texas information source for the DFW Metroplex. – DALLAS BLOG – Democrat Warren Buffet Profits from Keystone Closure

Jerry,

http://www.dallasblog.com/201201231008717/dallas-blog/democrat-warren-buffet-profits-from-keystone-closure.html

Nothing more needs to be said except that rail transport is far more energy inefficient and expensive than pipelines and that pipeline are far safer. Transporting the crude will require about two dozen, hundred car trains per day.

Jim Crawford

Of course it’s still legal for Congresscritters to profit from inside information about government actions.

Steve Jobs by Walter Isaacson

I just finished the Biography of Steve Jobs by Walter Isaacson and highly recommend it.

He was not often the "smartest man in the room" but his focus, drive and charisma made him the dominant one. I bought the first Mac in 1984 and continued buying newer ones until the present. I now know what drove the decisions that frustrated me over the years.

I have a lot of experience with being more intelligent than my peers and know that the focus and drive of a Steve Jobs are much more important for success. In fact the scattered nature of my own mind made it harder to accomplish goals throughout my life.

I have read both your fiction and that of Newt Gingrich with great pleasure over the years. I remember the details of the ethics charges against him and my impression at the time were that they were bogus. I think he left office more because he lost faith in his reform as his cohorts deserted him under pressure. He was not ready for the vilification by the press and the grossly biased reporting on the government shutdown.

When public sentiment grew for Bill Clinton and the Democrats he lost heart and resigned. The scandal was just an excuse.

Newt may have learned from that experience. The cash he has socked away while out of office may give him the confidence to weather biased and unfounded slurs. I hope so.

I supported Romney over McCain and Dole but he never got traction. He may make a great President if he can focus on what is good for the country instead of paying back his supporters. He has the knowledge confidence and tools for it. If he and Gingrich don’t damage each other to much either would be the best choice for the other slot on the ticket.

Palin for Secretary of Interior and Ran Paul for Treasury to complete his "Team of Rivals".

Just bought Kindle edition of Red Heroin my next book to read.

I like your ZERO based budget proposal. Is it doable?

Thomas Weaver

Doable of not, it is certain that exponential increase in spending cannot continue.

Subject: Cache of ancient Jewish scrolls discovered in Afghanistan

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/46102501/ns/technology_and_science-science/

Tracy

Subj: Soviet Venus Probes

Roland wrote Tuesday:

><http://deathby1000papercuts.com/2012/01/venus-ufo-photo-1982-russian-probe-photos-proof-of-aliens-on-venus/>

>The object in the photo looks like part of the Venera re-entry shroud or a fragment of one of its landing pads, to me.

The object is a lens cap, or more precisely half of one. The caps were designed to break apart and eject from the lens on command just before landing and are apparent in most Soviet Venus surface photos.

The caps were a continuing problem for the Soviets, as more than half failed to eject. In one famous case, Venera 14, a cap-half landed directly under the steel pin of a surface compressibility probe that was designed to one-time fire a spring-propelled pin into the surface and measure its penetration. Instead, American engineers said, the probe measured the compressibility of the lens cap in a demonstration that Murphey’s Law extended to other planets.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venera

Cecil Rose

LASFS

laser based cooling

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/01/23/laser_cooled_semiconductor/

Lasers heat things up, right? – unless you happen to hit upon the right resonance, in which case it seems you can use lasers to cool things down.

In an announcement that could be filed under either “counter-intuitive” or simply “wow”, scientists at Copenhagen University’s Niels Bohr institute have used a laser to cool a semiconductor membrane to -269°C.

Laser based cooling is one thing that I don’t ever remember stumbling across in all of my scifi reading.

John Harlow, President BravePoint

Microsoft revives flight sim by giving it away free 

Original URL: http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/01/06/microsoft_flight_sim_free/

Microsoft revives flight sim by giving it away free

One of Redmond’s longest-running lines gets reboot

http://forms.theregister.co.uk/mail_author/?story_url=/2012/01/06/microsoft_flight_sim_free/

Posted in Developer http://www.theregister.co.uk/software/developer/ , 6th January 2012 12:24 GMT http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/01/06/

Microsoft has said that it will be reviving its Flight Simulator franchise this spring with a free version of the game entitled simply Flight.

Redmond is making the game available in a private beta at present, but plans to release it as a free download eventually. The game needs a minimum of 10GB of hard drive space, a dual-core 2Ghz processor, Windows XP SP3 and 2GB of RAM, according to the video trailer http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4iITFuySPsM [1]. Initially Flight will only have one plane – the ICON A5 flying boat – but Windows Live users will get access to extra missions and plane types if they sign in.

“Many people dream of flying, but few have the chance to experience the fun of exploring the world from above. Microsoft Flight provides players the opportunity to explore that curiosity and interest,” said Joshua Howard, executive producer of Microsoft Flight in a canned statement http://www.microsoft.com/games/flight/#press-takes_to_skies [2]. “Aviation can be incredibly technical, but we’ve taken great care to build an experience that makes taking to the skies thrilling and accessible for everyone.”

Microsoft’s flight simulator arm is one of its longest running software franchises, and the first version was released in 1982 – years before Windows saw the light of day. The game was originally bought in from subLOGIC, rumour has it because Bill Gates was a huge simulator fan and wanted one of his own, but the game attracted a small but devoted following. It was also very handy for checking compatibility on PC clones, which was where this El Reg hack first found it in 1987.

Microsoft developed the platform, adding 3D in the third version and developing a growing following, both among gamers and amateur plane enthusiasts. It was to that latter group that the game increasingly addressed, adding more and fans were willing to pay silly money http://www.reghardware.com/2011/11/15/ultimate_flight_sim_rocks_living_rooms/ [3] for the ultimate rig.

By its tenth iteration with Flight Simulator X in 2006, the game was using simulations of 24,000 airports, with 24 planes to choose from on the high-end version. Its success also spawned other Microsoft simulators, including the late and unlamented Train Simulator – which was even more boring than it sounds. Companies like Just Flight grew up to provide add-ons to the game, including a memorable Space Shuttle sim, and virtual airlines sprung up in the community.

But in 2009, with the economy tanking and shareholders asking increasing questions about fixed costs, Microsoft axed the ACES Studio http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/02/03/microsoft_flight_simulator_partners/ [4] and the 150 developers working on the code. But this left a large group of commercial and private software developers out on a limb. For them, Flight’s announcement probably isn’t good news.

From the trailer the new game, set on the Hawaiian Islands, is going to be much more like an airborne Grand Theft Auto, just without the blood and guts. It shows pilots flying for awards and bonus features, rather than handling accurate wind shear or experiencing the exact layout of Lihue Airport. Worse still, the game is designed to be played with a keyboard and mouse.

Purists may not approve, but the move will almost certainly give the game a huge new user base, thanks to the free model. It looks likely that Microsoft will either sell upgrades, aping Zynga’s business model, and/or come to a deal with the existing developer base for a level of compatibility – in exchange for a 30 per cent cut of the take. Significantly, Microsoft made no mention of a software developer kit with the initial announcement.

More details will be released at the annual Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas (potentially Microsoft’s swan dive at CES) and no doubt many Microserfs are frantically beavering away to get the code up to snuff. They may not avoid bluescreens, but the company’s stand will no doubt be full of people looking to check out the new code.

NASA close to approving first sci-fi flick shot in space

Original URL: http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/01/21/nasa_sf_film_shot_on_iss/

NASA close to approving first sci-fi flick shot in space

ISS space tourist shoots schlock horror short

http://forms.theregister.co.uk/mail_author/?story_url=/2012/01/21/nasa_sf_film_shot_on_iss/

Posted in Space http://www.theregister.co.uk/science/space/ , 21st January 2012 01:14 GMT http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/01/21/

The first science fiction film shot in orbit could be coming to terrestrial viewers, now that NASA has confirmed it’s almost ready to give approval for the project.

Apogee of Fear was shot by space tourist Richard Garriott http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/10/14/space_tourist/ [1] during his 2008 sojourn on the International Space Station (ISS). Garriott shot the basic footage for the film, using astronauts as his cast, and then added scenes and effects after his return to Earth. The film, privately shown at Dragon*Con <http://www.dragoncon.org/> [2] last year, has been in legal limbo because it wasn’t included in Garriott’s deal with NASA.

"NASA is working with Richard Garriott to facilitate the video’s release,” Bob Jacobs, deputy for communications at NASA, told The Register in an email. “While the project was not part of his original Space Act agreement with NASA, everyone involved had the best of intentions. We hope to resolve the remaining issues expeditiously, and we appreciate Richard’s cooperation and his ongoing efforts to get people excited about the future of space exploration."

Millionaire game developer Garriott – aka Lord British in Ultima and General British in Tabula Rasa – shot the film during his 10-day tourist jaunt up to the ISS, while performing his other orbital duties. Without giving too much of the plot away, it involves a mysterious passenger who sneaks aboard the ISS for their own reasons, and it contains knowing nods to many of the greats of the science fiction genre. An audience’s-heads-in-frame bootleg can be seen here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hyC_s_mom3w [3].

Garriott, the son of a US astronaut who did a tour of duty on SkyLab back in the 1970s, and the second British astronaut to make it into orbit, shot the film to a script from noted fantasy author Tracy Hickman. Two US astronaut and one Russian cosmonaut have supporting roles. If NASA resolves the contractual issues, the film could be released as either a short, or as part of other films Garriott has made about space history.

Garriott is one of two second-generation astronauts: the other is cosmonaut Sergey Volkov, whose father Aleksandr was stuck on the Mir space station when the Soviet Union dissolved. Garriott also owns the Lunokhod 2 rover http://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/03/17/lunokhod_2_located/ [4] that surveyed the Moon in 1973 for around six months before breaking down.

And, yes, Garriott’s Lunokhod 2 is still on the moon. ®

The SECRET FACEBOOK OF POWER used by global premiers at G20:

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/01/22/g20_facebook/print.html

“At the Toronto based G20 summit in 2010, the men and women holding the purse strings of the world were forced to get on the Facebook-style network to access documents and communicate with each other, because email was strictly banned. Only 125 members were accepted – the finance and deputy finance ministers of the twenty countries along with a "sherpa" or guide for each member state. 55 of them decided to upload profile pictures too, giving the financial negotiations a more personal touch. It’s highly likely that the remaining 60-odd invites were parcelled out to the global premiers, which means that it is likely, though not certain Barack Obama was/is on there. Users on the network were able to upload documents, read documents, message each other, blog, have live instant message conversations and see who was talking about topics they were interested in.”

Hm. The Return of the Trilateral Commission will be next, I suppose.

Ed

A friend posted this on her Facebook page.

https://fbcdn-sphotos-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-ash4/406950_218671828223432_168372346586714_447701_403260359_n.jpg

Ah, those female infidels. Maybe not 72, but clearly some of those are already patrolling heaven.

Ed

This is interesting:

<.>

Many women are choosing tattoos as a way to celebrate their children, both publicly and privately.

The trend has grown even more popular in recent years with celebrity moms like Angelina Jolie, Nicole Richie and Jessica Alba showing others tattoos and the love for their kids are nothing to hide

</>

http://www.myfoxdfw.com/dpp/news/mommy-tattoos-gaining-popularity-011912#ixzz1k3DyqFcV

Every woman I’ve met with a "mommy tattoo" seemed to never have their child around. Most were single mothers and many did not care for their own children; a relative did. You could always see the tattoo and hear about how much they love their kids, but you never met the kids — ever. When you made inquiries into these people’s activities and lifestyle, it became apparent they did not spend much — if any — time with their children. So, instead, they got a tattoo to convince everyone they were fulfilling their perceived responsibilities as a parent.

But, can we blame them? Most people think that going with the Cult of the Donkey Totem or the Cult of the Elephant Totem will save them from political or financial hardship. It’s just as idiotic and just as obvious to me.

—–

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

KulturKampf – but in fact the culture war is essentially over. Culture seems to have lost.

Mail 710 Monday January 22, 2012

A few recent mail; I will do a big catchup when I have time to make more comments. It’s late now. I’ve been catching up today.

Article I, Section 6.

‘They shall in all Cases, except Treason, Felony and Breach of the Peace, be privileged from Arrest during their Attendance at the Session of their respective Houses, and in going to and returning from the same; and for any Speech or Debate in either House, they shall not be questioned in any other Place.’

<http://www.csmonitor.com/layout/set/print/content/view/print/454944>

—

Roland Dobbins

This of course is very much relevant to the TSA’s treatment of Senator Rand Paul. But this Administration does not seem to take Constitutional issues seriously. Or perhaps the President hasn’t read the document lately.

Sen Paul and TSA

Hi Jerry,

By this hour you’ve probably been sent this story 75 times already. I am looking forward to your treatment of the item.

–Mike

http://overheadbin.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/01/23/10216573-tsa-critic-sen-rand-paul-has-run-in-with-tsa

By NBC News and msnbc.com news services

Updated at 4:25 p.m. ET: Senator Rand Paul, R-Ky., clashed with the Transportation Security Administration at a Nashville airport on Monday morning and says that was was "detained" by the government agency.

NBC News reported that he set off a full-body scanning machine while going through airport security. Paul reportedly raised his right pant leg, which may have set off the scanner. Paul, according to aides, said it was “clearly a glitch” and asked to proceed through the machine a second time. The TSA demanded a full-body pat-down, which Paul refused.

"I was told I couldn’t leave, that kind of sounds like you are being detained," Paul told NBC News. "I was put into a small cubicle and told not to leave."

NBC News’ Tom Costello reports that, according to sources at the TSA, Paul was not detained, but was escorted by police out of the checkpoint.

In a statement to NBC News, TSA spokesman Greg Soule said, “When an irregularity is found during the TSA screening process, it must be resolved prior to allowing a passenger to proceed to the secure area of the airport. Passengers who refuse to complete the screening process cannot be granted access to the secure area in order to ensure the safety of others traveling.”

Paul was eventually permitted through airport security, according to Soule. “The passenger has since rebooked on another flight and was rescreened without incident,” he said in a statement at about noon on Monday.

Paul, who has previously called for the TSA to be abolished, told NBC News that passengers should not be subjected to pat-downs.

"I really think no American should have to go through all of this," he said. "I think if the screener goes off and you don’t want to have a pat down search, you ought to be able to go back through the screener." Paul says he was sent back through the screener when he went to board his re-booked flight

I really haven’t time to give this the commentary it deserves because it is so stunning. To begin with of course is the plain language of the Constitution regarding Senators and Members of Congress travelling to or from the national Capital. I can understand Senator Paul’s reluctance to invoke his Constitutional immunity from this sort of treatment but he should have done so. TSA ought to know that there are at least some Americans immune to their arrogant security theater.

Of course Senator Paul’s father wants to abolish the TSA in its entirety.

Most Americans are intimidated by TSA and well they should be; you must kiss their boots and salute their hats if you want to travel.

I wonder if a fiction scene in which the US Army overpowers a local TSA despoty on Constitutional grounds would be good reading? It would certainly be fun to write.

Ah, Frum…

"Oh dear. We must unify against Gingrich!"

http://www.cnn.com/2012/01/23/opinion/frum-gingrich-enthusiasm/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

Methinks the Egregious Frum has decided to go back to being a liberal. Romney is a RINO, and likely to have Wall Street’s hand up his backside like a sock puppet. But he’s inoffensive. Gingrich is bright, as Clinton was, but has about half of Clinton’s personal charm and shows signs of being about as amoral, which is less palatable to Mainstream Republicans. Santorum will get obliterated by the media for his willingness to cuddle up to social conservative platforms and positions. (They’re already warming up the American Sharia narrative for him). With the exception of Paul, everyone regards the Tea Party clique as a basket of snakes. Useful to handle to prove your faith, but not something to clutch to your bosom.

If our mandate here is to get the strongest, brightest leadership we can manage, the choices are Gingrich and Paul. If our mandate is to get the closest thing we can get to a President not entangled by Wall Street, our best bet is Paul.

Isn’t it fascinating that the two best choices cause Frum to froth, wroth with dismay and concern about the dismantling of the party of George W. Bush?

I had not noticed that the egregious Frum had ever ceased to be liberal, but then he did read me out of the Conservative movement long ago. Ah well, I have endured.

Incredible News

This is belated and welcome: a defense against a big rock or ice ball hitting our sphere.

http://www.infowars.com/international-plan-protecting-earth-from-comets-asteroids-means-billions-for-contractors/

Of course, the article discusses the billions that will go to contractors. It’s sad that people seem to lack vision and an undestanding of time and their place in history. I wonder how many of my intellectual opponents must believe the same about me? Whatever the case, this is something we need to be thinking about.

I was considering how much we know about where we are and what is going on and we haven’t done much to change our behavior, social structures, and goals. This is a step in the right direction. This planet is vulnerable to a strike from meteors. This is a step toward preserving the planet; this represents the only "Green Economy" initiative that I can get behind so far. Protect the planet and the lives on it with an earth defense system.

Next step: Get space ships that will allow us to colonize planets and moons, mine asteroids, moon, planets, etc., and continue exploring space. I suggest we develop first contact protocols and prepare ourselves to meet other sentient beings; astronomers in 2012 believe we have more planets than stars in the galaxy. I believe we need to get our act together. We do not need to export barbarism to the stars.

—–

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

I point out, once again, there is no money spent in space; it’s all spent on Earth, most on skilled labor. Development of space resources will take more than one generation, but it remains true that 90% of the resources available to mankind in this solar system are not on Earth. For more on that see A Step Farther Out. At least one of the candidates understands this.

Another reason to get rid of Obama

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203806504577178830739157386.html?mod=WSJ_Tech_LEFTTopNews

Notice who complained:

" But U.S. authorities and entertainment executives say in court documents and interviews that cyberlockers are at the vanguard of online piracy."

You don’t hear too many complaints from software developers anymore. The Apple app stores and their Google counterparts have made it easy to develop and make money on software. The low selling prices make it unlikely that people will steal it. In the book business, eBooks are enabling the same scenario to play out with authors. What’s left but good old holly wood and Nashville? Hopefully, it won’t take too much more time for them to go bye bye. In their current form, good riddance.

Phil

The entire subject needs a long essay. I am working on that, but I am not sure there is much urgency. The market seems to be working.

Iraq Reverts

hmmm

<.>

Iraq is falling back into authoritarianism and headed towards becoming a police state, http://topics.breitbart.com/police+state/ despite US claims that it has helped establish democracy in the country,Human Rights Watch http://topics.breitbart.com/Human+Rights+Watch/ said on Sunday.

</>

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.f4b3121d53c9061ef3bd59387255abe5.51&show_article=1

—–

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

No surprises. I do not know what the US is doing to protect our only genuine ally left in Iraq, namely Kurdistan Iraq, where we are popular and there is rule of law. I am not sure that the President understands this.

It was always the case the Iraq would fragment; it was artificially created to give the Hashemites a Kingdom, and the monarchy was the only thing holding it together. Without the authority of the hereditary Protector of Mecca as ruler there was no reason for loyalty except along tribal and confession lines. But then I said as much before we went in, but they were not listening to people like me in those days.

“What if we forget about the current theories about the non-existence of life on Venus, let’s boldly suggest that the objects’ morphological features would allow us to say that they are living.”

<http://deathby1000papercuts.com/2012/01/venus-ufo-photo-1982-russian-probe-photos-proof-of-aliens-on-venus/>

The object in the photo looks like part of the Venera re-entry shroud or a fragment of one of its landing pads, to me.

—

Roland Dobbins

The Zen of Firefly and Serenity …

Updated (and corrected) the post with a few new pictures,

for those who like such things. 🙂

> http://paulinhouston.blogspot.com/2012/01/firefly-and-serenity.html

>

> The Zen of Firefly and Serenity …

> "… I aim to misbehave."

>

>–

>Paul Gordon

I do miss that show.

Scientific American: The weaponry of 1912

http://www.scientificamerican.com/slideshow.cfm?id=warfare-1912-weapons-technology

Its interesting how many things have changed and how many really haven’t.

John Harlow, President BravePoint

Cheap, plentiful energy

Hello Jerry,

"Cheap, plentiful energy is the key to freedom and prosperity."

Jerry Pournelle, often

That is certainly a fact, and obvious, and you are not the only one

to notice it.

Alan Caruba has noticed and, with that in mind, provides some

commentary on the energy policies of the US Government and what they

are designed to achieve.:

http://factsnotfantasy.blogspot.com/2012/01/destroying-america-by-denying-access-to.html

You may or may not agree with his last sentence; I do.

Bob Ludwick

I can only repeat that cheap, plentiful energy is the key to prosperity; and as I said in A Step Farther Out, there are no pollution problems that cannot be overcome with suitable applications of energy. I know of one candidate who understands this because I met him when he called me to discuss A Step Farther Out.

China’s Future

The future of China looks most interesting for the communists:

<.>

The Chinese government is taking notice of recent economic and social successes in the inland city of Chongqing. Anchored by economic initiatives that promote domestic consumption, as opposed to the traditional export-oriented focus of China’s coastal region, the so-called Chongqing model has been seen as responsible for the city’s prosperity as growth slows in the rest of the country, and it appears to be under consideration for widespread implementation. However, a number of issues inherent in the model, including strong central control and massive government investment, will need to be addressed before it can become a viable, nationwide plan.

</>

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/china-viability-chongqing-model

I like that last line. The issues of central control and government investment tend to kill domestic consumption as these cannot keep pace.

—–

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

Mussolini was probably the most economically successful socialist, and many of his measures were models for New Deal policies. Fascist Italy was a combination of command economy, free enterprise, and lots of motivational manipulation. It did not export well, as Argentina proved, but then Peron wasn’t as smart as Mussolini.

This is good news:

<.>

The scientists who altered a deadly flu <http://health.nytimes.com/health/guides/disease/the-flu/overview.html?inline=nyt-classifier> virus to make it more contagious have agreed to suspend their research for 60 days to give other international experts time to discuss the work and determine how it can proceed without putting the world at risk of a potentially catastrophic pandemic.

</>

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/21/science/scientists-to-pause-research-on-deadly-strain-of-bird-flu.html?_r=1&hp

Probably, nobody heard of this and when it happened the media would offer some bs excuse like you always hear people repeating. So, if a pandemic comes, remember this.

—–

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

And as computers get more powerful? Perhaps it is time to reread Budrys’s Some Will Not Die.

fascinating video on numbers

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-1957179570191443503

—

Recent work from Michael Z. Williamson

ROGUE, Sep 2011 from Baen Books

CURIOSITY:  ALIEN INVASION, Discovery Channel, August 2011

Obama’s TV Ad on Energy — IT’S GOING TO BE A LOOOONG YEAR!!!!

http://news.investors.com/Article/598518/201201201917/obama-energy-claims-celebrate-recession.htm

****************

John D. Trudel, Consultant Emeritus, Inventor, Engineer, Author, retired Adjunct Professor (U. of Oregon), and Novelist.

Mail 708 Sunday, January 15, 2012

Thanks to all who have recently subscribed or renewed subscriptions. http://www.jerrypournelle.com/paying.html 

I was rummaging through other stuff and found the page that points to two of my illustrated walking trip reports, one in Rome and the other in Paris. http://jerrypournelle.com/jerrypournelle.c/reports/trips/  They actually make for quite pleasant reading.

Lengthy review of Charles Murray’s latest: Coming Apart: The State of White America 1960-2010:

http://www.toqonline.com/blog/elite-and-underclass/

“At 416 pages, Coming Apart is Charles Murray’s most substantial offering since 2003’s Human Accomplishment. It continues a theme familiar to readers of The Bell Curve: increasing American social stratification. Murray focuses on whites because otherwise the social trends he describes might lazily be explained away as effects of demographic change; he demonstrates that the trends are almost wholly unaffected by race or immigration. As he notes, a constant focus on how racial minorities ‘lag’ whites serves to distract attention from important changes in the benchmark population itself.”

And then he covers those changes in “the bookmark population.”

Sobering.

Ed

I do not have a high regard for Sociology as a discipline, and indeed my C P Snow Memorial Lecture in Ithaca New York was on The Voodoo Sciences http://www.jerrypournelle.com/science/voodoo.html ; but I have always made an exception for Charles Murray. His books are always worth reading, and he pay meticulous attention to the data. The Bell Curve didn’t tell the world anything that the scientists who actually study IQ and mental ability and its measurement didn’t know, but it did bring a lot of the discussion out in the open – to the militant disgust of most of the Voodoo Sciences. I was personally at a session of the American Association for the Advancement of Science at which the session chairman, a prominent Professor of Sociology, proudly announced that he had not read the book he would now discuss – and promptly proved it, to great applause from an audience most of which had not read it either. Such is Sociology. But Murray has always shown that there is a basis for a science in there if you actually look at the data.

I have my own ideas on what the computer revolution has done to the intelligent class. I have ordered his book and I look forward to seeing what Murray has done, and what data he finds significant. One of my heroes, he is.

Subject: The Rise of the Praetorian Class

Long, but worth reading, IMHO:

http://www.caseyresearch.com/cdd/rise-praetorian-class

Worth reading, but it requires a longer comment than I have time or inclination to give. Do understand that the Iron Law of Bureaucracy applies to military and policy organizations, particularly in peace time; it’s not quite so visible or severe because the standards for admission to the organization can and often are kept high, and the Mamelukes and Janissaries and Praetorians do not admit fools and cowards to their brotherhood; but of course that may change in peace time.

We live in a Republic founded by political leaders who were very much aware of Roman history, who had read their Plutarch, who seriously debated the working of the Venetian Republic – in 1787 the longest surviving Republic in the history of mankind, not yet ended by Napoleon and the bayonets of the French Army – and who were quite familiar with the careers of Julius Caesar, Mark Anthony, Octavian, Marius, and Sulla, the Gracchi – most of whom are known to modern Americans from movies. (Incidentally, if you want a good picture of the character of Julius Caesar, Claude Rains in my judgment does that well in the movie Caesar and Cleopatra, which faithfully puts on screen the George Bernard Shaw play of the same name. Shaw was a complex man but he got that part of history right.

Now I suspect that if you ask the average member of Congress who the Gracchi were you would get stammers or a blank look; and I doubt many of them have read more than a quoted paragraph of Gibbons or Macaulay, or know much about the career of Septimius Severus, who succeeded the last Roman to become Roman Emperor. For a walk through Rome with some comments on Severus who had discovered the dread secret, that Emperors could be made in places other than Rome, see http://www.jerrypournelle.com/reports/trips/rome1.html

scale of the universe

You’ll like this.

http://www.scaleofuniverse.com/

– Paul

Neat!

Sometimes, Ann Coulter …

…reminds me of why I added that Lady to my blogroll in the first place.

(I mean besides that picture of her on her page. 🙂

http://paulinhouston.blogspot.com/2012/01/sometimes-ann-coulter.html

From her latest …

Earlier this week, Mitt Romney got into trouble for saying, "I like being able to fire people who provide services to me." To comprehend why the political class reacted as if Romney had just praised Hitler, you must understand that his critics live in a world in which no one can ever be fired — a world known as "the government."

—

Paul Gordon

Precisely. I do wish that Schumpeter’s Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy were required reading in journalism school (and indeed in any civilized university education curriculum).

China Borrowing

While I agree the federal government does not need to be in the bunny inspection business (except perhaps ensuring health checks on any imported bunnies to keep from importing any new diseases), I do find it a bit of a stretch to say we are borrowing from China to pay for the bunny inspections or any federal programs.

While China does hold about a 1 trillion dollars of debt, that is only about 7.8% of the total public debt. The amount of debt that China holds was relatively steady ( 0.3% decrease) from September 2010 to September 2011 while the total public debt grew. Even on a margin basis – if the government would either borrow an extra dollar, or cut expenses by a dollar – it would be unlikely to be reflected by a dollar increase or decrease in debt held by China.

I think the fact that the US has a large trade imbalance with China probably has more to do with the amount of debt Cina holds, then federal borrowing does. After all China has to invest all those extra dollars somewhere.

China does hold 24.6% of the public debt in foreign hands, and 11.3% of the debt in private hands. It only holds 7.8% of the total public debt.

Foreign holders account for less then half (46.0%) of the debt held by the public, and 26.1% of the total public debt.

Of the increase in 1.238 trillon in public debt between 9/30/2010 and 9/30/2011, 336.1 bilion (27.1%) was due to an increase in foreign held debt. The total amount China held actually fell by 3.6 billion over that year.

With almost 75% of the total debt and new debt in domestic hands, I have to say the federal government is mainly using domestic borrowing. The Federal Reserve after the stimulus plan purchases now holds more debt then China does. Of course, the Social Security trust fund holds a large amount of the public debt.

It will be interesting to see how the makeup of the debt will change now that Social Security has began paying out more in benefits then it is taking in in payroll taxes, and has had to use some of the interest on the debt it holds to pay benefits.

Figures come from two US treasury websites

==========

http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/NPGateway

Well, so long as some money is borrowed from China, does it matter? That is, we have bunny inspectors and we borrow money from China. Eliminate enough needless government spending and put off other stuff that might be a good thing if we could afford it; get the debt down so that we don’t have to borrow money from China – and then continue to reduce the needless spending. But thank you . You are correct. We don’t borrow all the needlessly spent money from China. We borrow most of it from someone else. But it’s still needless.

Indefensible.

<http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2012/01/nsa-cant-defend/>

<http://intelnews.org/2012/01/13/01-908/>

——-

Roland Dobbins

Two of Final Four Army Brigades to be Withdrawn From Europe

http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/Army-troops-withdrawn-Europe/2012/01/13/id/424125

This is something we should have done a decade ago.

John Harlow

Actually I have been saying this for two decades. The French want us to sit on Fritz. The Germans like having Americans spend money in Germany, and not having to have a large Wehrmacht. The troops like it in Europe. The taxpayers have never read George Washington’s advice on entangling alliances and not being involved in overseas territorial disputes. So it goes.

Subject: The Thin Red Line.

January 13, 2012: Britain is reducing the size of its army to 82,000, the lowest it has been in over 200 http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htpara/20120113.aspx years. It was hoped, by the politicians doing the cutting, that the Territorial Army, similar to the U.S. National Guard and Reserves, could be reorganized and retrained in order to make them able to quickly join the regulars for overseas assignments. Unfortunately, this may not make much of a difference unless the Army can do something about a severe manpower shortage in the reserves. The army is also unsure if the part-time Territorial soldiers can be made ready for rapid deployment to overseas hot sport.

Most of the problems Britain’s ground forces suffer from are related to years of defense budget slashes and poor pay, which have resulted in a lack of spare parts, equipment, and disgruntled and poorly paid personnel. Currently the Territorial Army numbers around 29,000, which is 7,000 short of what it is supposed to be. But the issue of manpower has always been Britain’s major problem, regardless of whether the military was well-funded or not. During World War II, the constant and unceasing demands for manpower in the European Theatre caused growing personnel shortages in the army. In the old days, this wasn’t so much of a problem since Britain could call upon hundreds of thousands of Empire troops to make up for their own shortage of bodies to fill the ranks. The majority of these soldiers came from South Africa, India, and the ANZAC (Australia and New Zealand). Unfortunately, this is no longer possible since the Indians are no longer associated with the Commonwealth. As for the Australians and New Zealanders, they are unlikely to mobilize thousands of troops unless there is a direct threat to Britain.

Currently, the active army consists of about 82,000 officers, NCOs, and enlisted men. The 29,000 Territorial Army troops have several different degrees of obligation. The Regular Reserve is composed of two different classes (A and D). The A class reservists are required to answer compulsory calls for training and deployment whereas Class D troops report for service on a purely voluntary basis. Furthermore, Territorial Units are broken up into Regional and National formations. The Regional formations are composed of soldiers recruited locally from specific areas in Britain. Their commitment is a minimum of 27 days training a year. For National formations, who typically fulfill specialized roles such as logistics and medical services, the commitment is even less at 19 days per year.

Despite the limbo in which the Territorials find themselves regarding their personnel shortages, the government is smart enough to realize they’re going to need the reserves. Currently, the Territorial Forces have no fixed timetable for training their units up to full combat-ready standards. This has caused some in the regular army to question whether, in their current state, the Territorials could provide any added value to the offensives in Afghanistan.

Currently, the reserves’ time to get in shape and trained for combat operations is capped at six months. This may not be enough time to conduct basic training and teach advanced skills before shipping the troops to a combat zone. The plan also calls for more training alongside regular army units, to learn heavy weapons skills. This usually results in the reduction of training times in order to get more soldiers in combat faster. Britain has made it clear that during future overseas crises, the Territorials are going to be in combat soon and they want them trained and ready to do their jobs as quickly as possible. Unfortunately, all the training and upgrading may be for nothing if they can’t scrape up the recruits they need and implement training programs that will prepare the reservists for combat quickly enough.

http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htpara/20120113.aspx

But why would they need an Army? They have the Fleet. Oh. Well, we don’t have to study war no more. The US will take over the world policeman job.

EU

The European Union might appear a military superpower, at least on paper. It has more uniformed personnel than the United States and overall EU defense spending outstrips Russia or China.

But as Washington pulls troops back from the continent, two decades after the Cold War ended, and refocuses on Asia, the cash-strapped nations of Europe face uncomfortable truths over just how paltry their real military capabilities have become.

NATO’s war in Libya last year was trumpeted as Europe starting to take responsibility for its own backyard, with Britain and France calling the shots while Washington "led from behind." In reality, the campaign was heavily dependent on U.S. military, technical, intelligence and logistical support – the Europeans could not even supply enough of their own munitions.

</>

http://old.news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20120110/ts_nm/us_europe_defence

That’s par for the course. Europe has always been unable to fend for itself. They can’t get along and when the wars get really bad, we have to go in and sort them out….

—–

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Europe could afford Socialism because they didn’t need to defend their territory against Russia during the Cold war. It’s a tradition.

missed opportunities

Dr. Pournelle-

You may have already seen this …

http://www.american.com/archive/2012/january/the-high-cost-of-government-waste

John Cuson

When presidential candidate Mitt Romney ridiculed former House Speaker Newt Gingrich for favoring a mining colony on the moon during a recent presidential debate, he undoubtedly thought he was scoring political points.  But anyone watching who had ever thrilled to Stanley Kubrick’s thoughtful depiction of interplanetary travel in 2001: A Space Odyssey likely admired the Speaker’s spirited defense of his off-world agenda.

There are many ways to measure the cost of wasteful spending in the decades since the Apollo moon landings—the size of the current national budget deficit, surveys showing Americans’ growing mistrust of government, or the number of duplicative and inefficient federal programs.

Yet perhaps the most disheartening metric is the number of promising space exploration proposals that have been abandoned in the name of “more pressing social priorities.”

And considerably more. The first time I met Newt Gingrich was on the phone – he had got my phone number from my publisher and wanted to discuss A STEP FARTHER OUT, which he had just read and wanted to discuss with me. I discuss lunar and asteroid resources and how we could be back on the moon for good by 2010. Yeah , we missed some opportunities…

Crow roof tubing –

Jerry

Here is a crow not only using a tool, but using it to play:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YP9RnDp_tms

Amazing. Very smart bird. “Roof-tubing.” Who would have thought?

Ed

Smart birds. Our local crow flocks are down again. I haven’t seen more than 12 at a time for months; it used to be we had several flocks of fifty or more. I miss them. But apparently the are flourishing in other places. It’s the West Nile that’s killing them. Didn’t used to have any West Nile in Southern California when I moved here.

Saturn’s Rings and Two Moons

Jerry,

Another keeper from Cassini

<http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA14591>

Regards, Charles Adams

Marine Urination Video –

Jerry,

… assuming that the marine urination video is real and not a videoshopped piece of propaganda:

I am very surprised and appalled by your cavalier attitude toward the Marine urination on dead Taliban incident.

Respect for the dead should be instilled in all our warriors – this is what separates a marine from a savage.

It is the job of NCO’s, recruiters, and drill sergants to find, discipline, and remove such troopers from the ranks.

It’s also the job of the NCO’s to train our troops to not do stupid stuff. It hurts their mission.

That being said, in a large group of people the bell curve will apply and stupid actions will happen. What matters then is how a free, open, honest, and just society deals with those who allegedly break the rules.

Jim Coffey

I doubt it was video shopped.

I have seen troops who honored dead enemies; some enemies deserve honor. I have also known troops who went out of the way to desecrate dead enemies. Oddly enough, in Korea Chinese dead and prisoners were treated much better than North Korean dead and prisoners.

The Marines acted without thinking of the consequences and must be made to realize that; but I have always believed that far more serious acts take place in every combat action. War is Hell. A rational army would run away. Those men did not run away, and I’d far rather have troops who urinate on the enemy than troops who surrender to get their throats cut while in captivity.

And I hope they had bacon for breakfast that morning. I’m told they did.

I don’t appall as easily as many, I suppose.

Mail 708 Wednesday, January 11, 2012

Phonics lesson

Hi, Jerry.

On the Sunday, January 8th "This Week in Tech" podcast/show, John Dvorak mentioned the book "Trial And Error: A Key To The Secret Of Writing And Selling" by Jack Woodford, which you also agreed was very good. <http://twit.tv/show/this-week-in-tech/335>

You also mentioned another book "Techniques of…" by another author that you said was a very good, no-BS, book, but I didn’t catch the title or author’s name.

Could you help with the name of that book and author?

Thank you very much in advance.

-Jeff

The book I mentioned was by the late Dwight Swaine, Techniques of the Selling Writer. Dwight was a friend of many years, and sold more words for more money than almost anyone. He was also a good teacher. It is available in paperback but alas no eBook edition. http://www.amazon.com/Techniques-Selling-Writer-Dwight-Swain/dp/0806111917 If you are serious about writing as a profession this is an important book. Most books for writers are not much use – at least they were not to me – but Dwight’s book is worth your time.

There is also my essay on how to get my job. http://www.jerrypournelle.com/slowchange/myjob.html This was written back before the eBook revolution as was Dwight’s so some of it is out of date, but there is plenty there to be aware of. And of course the TWIT conversation began when John Dvorak brought up the late Jack Woodford, whose writing was a mixed bag, but who wrote several good books on getting started in writing.

Another Government Goof

The government just became conspiracy theorists.  They are taxing for fuels that don’t exist!

<.>

When the companies that supply motor fuel close the books on 2011, they will pay about $6.8 million in penalties to the Treasury because they failed to mix a special type of biofuel into their gasoline and diesel as required by law.

But there was none to be had. Outside a handful of laboratories and workshops, the ingredient, cellulosic biofuel, does not exist.

</>

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/10/business/energy-environment/companies-face-fines-for-not-using-unavailable-biofuel.html

HAHAHHAHAHAHAHA!  WOW!  I’m going to set conditions that you can’t possibly achieve and penalize you when you cannot achieve the same.  HAHAHAHHAHAHA.  Does this tell you how stupid enough people in this country are that this crap even happens at?  Maybe not everyone is stupid, but we have more than enough stupid people. 

—–

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

Never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence, said Napoleon Bonaparte. I would add that if it’s a bureaucracy sheer stupidity coupled with the Iron Law of Bureaucracy is a more than sufficient explanation. Of course when the stupidity and incompetence are egregious enough, it’s hard to tell them from malice. Note that the President promised during his election campaign to go over every government expenditure with a laser like eye, looking for needless programs and waste to eliminate, line by line if need be. Note also that the Bunny Inspectors will all get a raise and their bureaucracy is still hiring. I believe the President took office in 2009. We are now in 2012. We will have Bunny Inspectors and regulators that require you to use additives that do not exist. Welcome to Hope and Change.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerry_Pournelle#Iron_Law_of_Bureaucracy

more iron law at NASA

http://space.flatoday.net/2012/01/bolden-meets-apollo-vets-on-artifact.html

Don’t build rockets or explore space, just focus on taking away Apollo veteran trinkets!

Phil

ethical obligations of health care

Dear Mr. Pournelle;

I’ve been thinking about your question:

"how did you get the legal obligation to pay for my health care? Is that also an ethical obligation or is it merely force majeure?"

In a political context, I’m more inclined to maintain this on the basis of prudence rather than ethics. I’m not confident that a solid ethical argument can be made apart from a belief commitment; and I don’t want to play Savonarola.

I draw on Luther’s Small Catechism, where he interprets "You shall not kill" as instructing "We are to fear and love God, so that we neither endanger nor harm the lives of our neighbors, but instead help and support them in all of life’s needs." Beyond that I’d refer to the Gospels; "Inasmuch as you have done it *not* to one of the least of these, you have done it *not* to me." I believe these claims are valid for all, including people who do not consent to them; but I am also convinced none of us (including me) can be trusted with theocracy. So, while my own faith commitments probably *alert* me to ethical concerns, I conceive it to be my responsibility within American life to argue for those concerns on the basis of whatever common ground is shared apart from my faith commitment.

Where in fact the varying strains of our common life converge on shared ethical assumptions, I’m delighted to appeal to them. But this doesn’t seem to be such a case. I rather think that an internally consistent Nietzschean or Social Darwinist ethic could be constructed, for example; I just wouldn’t accept its premises. But neither could I assume that its adherents would instead accept mine.

So in this case I would rather argue from prudence. Our health care system costs too much, and while it provides excellent results for people with deep pockets or good insurance, it is leaving gaps where people can’t afford health care. In its least damaging implications, I believe this is a drag on our economic life; sick people can’t do good work. Beyond that, the possibility of pandemics or antibiotic-resistant infections developing in "underclass" enclaves is scary. I don’t believe our civilization can risk letting that slide by.

Thank you again for your courtesy; and I’ll try not to abuse it.

Sincerely yours,

Allan E. Johnson

I can accept an obligation from religion, but the United States Constitution as interpreted by the courts does not; indeed it does not even allow the display of the Ten Commandments in a court house!

As to the argument from economics, I doubt that you can prove an economic advantage to me in paying for expensive health care for the aged, disabled, incompetent, and useless. I believe you will need some other source of obligation for that.

God wills it is a powerful argument, but only when directed to those who believe in God, and believe that you have some creditable means of discerning His will.

Good government is a miracle. Nations that agree on the social obligations of the populace, and on the means for settling government, have been blessed. See Burnham on that; there is little better rational argument for settling disputes by counting uneducated noses and organized voters than there is for saying “this man inherited the Middle Justice, he has spent his life studying how to do this job that he inherited, and it is his decision. Obey.”

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/homeland-security-monitoring-journalists/

R

Disturbing if true. As are all the new Homeland Security powers.

And then there’s this

: Assault on privacy

The road to you-know-where is paved with good intentions. Who doesn’t want people to voluntarily be able to connect with lost relatives? Who doesn’t want a cold murder case solved?

On the other hand, who wants to be thrown under suspicion of murder simply by being a male descendant of somebody who came over on the Mayflower?

Check CNN’s story "DNA links 1991 killing to Colonial-era family."

–Mike Glyer

http://www.cnn.com/2012/01/09/justice/washington-cold-case/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

Fitzpatrick said the DNA she used came from one of several major collections of genetic profiles, a practice she said was "really hot these days for genealogy." She said the people who donated DNA profiles to the database had either done their genealogy or had their DNA tested to trace their connections.

"It allows you to connect with relatives you can’t trace through traditional documentation

Cela pourrait se produire ici!

Nature ‘s current editorial leader commends the French nuclear industry’s

efforts to get real in the aftermath of Fukushima:

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v481/n7380/full/481113a.html?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20120112

As the French reactors tend to be sited high and dry , one wonders if our

NRC , with more coastal exposure, has produced a comparable post-tsunami

followup ?

Russell Seitz

I note that this all happened as part of the worst earthquake and tsunami in Japan in a thousand years, and a lot of people were killed, others displaced, land ruined; but of those dead because of the nuclear plant, all died inside the plant. It’s a bit like worrying about someone killed by a faulty electric house wiring on the outskirts of Hiroshima on That Day. It’s a tragedy, the wiring should have been fixed, but perhaps that wasn’t the real news of That Day.

Jerry,

the current issue of Fortune, on future tech, apparently has an article and editorial discussing Solar Power Satellites.

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2012/01/16/toc.html

Jim

I have not changed my views: solar power satellites and putting polluting industries in space makes sense, if you develop a spacefaring reuable fleet.

The Chump Effect

http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/chump-effect_610143.html?nopager=1

"Lots of cultural writing these days, in books and magazines and newspapers, relies on the so-called Chump Effect. The Effect is defined by its discoverer, me, as the eagerness of laymen and journalists to swallow whole the claims made by social scientists.

Entire journalistic enterprises, whole books from cover to cover, would simply collapse into dust if even a smidgen of skepticism were summoned whenever we read that “scientists say” or “a new study finds”

or “research shows” or “data suggest.” Most such claims of social science, we would soon find, fall into one of three categories: the trivial, the dubious, or the flatly untrue. "

I can’t remember the last time I saw a report on some new and interesting discovery by social scientists and thought about how interesting it was and how it increased my knowledge of humans.

Instead, I look at it and wonder how it’ll be used to show I’m a bad person or how I should be forced to do something the media likes. I remember doing those surveys in college and seeing clumsy attempts to ask the same question in different ways. They were clumsy because the different ways of asking the same question changed the meaning of the question, and often I’d answer them differently because of that truthful streak, knowing it would simply get my answer sheet thrown out. This does not encourage me to trust the results I see in the media.

Graves

Agreed. And do recall my essay on The Voodoo Sciences. http://www.jerrypournelle.com/science/voodoo.html

Phonics Lesson

Another phonetics exercise

Jerry,

Class this as another phonetics exercise, or perhaps an exercise in what NOT to do with chemistry:

http://pipeline.corante.com/archives/2011/11/11/things_i_wont_work_with_hexanitrohexaazaisowurtzitane.php#comments

Jim

Formidable! It’s about the best list of non-phonetic English words I have ever seen.

Actually, that is the wrong mail for that comment. I had intended this one:

SUBJ: English Pronunciation test

http://www.thepoke.co.uk/2011/12/23/english-pronunciation/

If you can pronounce correctly every word in this poem, you will be speaking English better than 90% of the native English speakers in the world.

After trying the verses, a Frenchman said he’d prefer six months of hard labor to reading six lines aloud.

"English Pronunciation" by G. Nolst Trenité

Dearest creature in creation,

Study English pronunciation.

I will teach you in my verse

Sounds like corpse, corps, horse, and worse.

I will keep you, Suzy, busy,

Make your head with heat grow dizzy.

Tear in eye, your dress will tear.

So shall I! Oh hear my prayer.

Just compare heart, beard, and heard,

Dies and diet, lord and word,

Sword and sward, retain and Britain.

(Mind the latter, how it’s written.)

Now I surely will not plague you

With such words as plaque and ague.

But be careful how you speak:

Say break and steak, but bleak and streak; Cloven, oven, how and low, Script, receipt, show, poem, and toe.

Hear me say, devoid of trickery,

Daughter, laughter, and Terpsichore,

Typhoid, measles, topsails, aisles,

Exiles, similes, and reviles;

Scholar, vicar, and cigar,

Solar, mica, war and far;

One, anemone, Balmoral,

Kitchen, lichen, laundry, laurel;

Gertrude, German, wind and mind,

Scene, Melpomene, mankind.

Billet does not rhyme with ballet,

Bouquet, wallet, mallet, chalet.

Blood and flood are not like food,

Nor is mould like should and would.

Viscous, viscount, load and broad,

Toward, to forward, to reward.

And your pronunciation’s OK

When you correctly say croquet,

Rounded, wounded, grieve and sieve,

Friend and fiend, alive and live.

Ivy, privy, famous; clamour

And enamour rhyme with hammer.

River, rival, tomb, bomb, comb,

Doll and roll and some and home.

Stranger does not rhyme with anger,

Neither does devour with clangour.

Souls but foul, haunt but aunt,

Font, front, wont, want, grand, and grant,

Shoes, goes, does. Now first say finger,

And then singer, ginger, linger,

Real, zeal, mauve, gauze, gouge and gauge,

Marriage, foliage, mirage, and age.

Query does not rhyme with very,

Nor does fury sound like bury.

Dost, lost, post and doth, cloth, loth.

Job, nob, bosom, transom, oath.

Though the differences seem little,

We say actual but victual.

Refer does not rhyme with deafer.

Fe0ffer does, and zephyr, heifer.

Mint, pint, senate and sedate;

Dull, bull, and George ate late.

Scenic, Arabic, Pacific,

Science, conscience, scientific.

Liberty, library, heave and heaven,

Rachel, ache, moustache, eleven.

We say hallowed, but allowed,

People, leopard, towed, but vowed.

Mark the differences, moreover,

Between mover, cover, clover;

Leeches, breeches, wise, precise,

Chalice, but police and lice;

Camel, constable, unstable,

Principle, disciple, label.

Petal, panel, and canal,

Wait, surprise, plait, promise, pal.

Worm and storm, chaise, chaos, chair,

Senator, spectator, mayor.

Tour, but our and succour, four.

Gas, alas, and Arkansas.

Sea, idea, Korea, area,

Psalm, Maria, but malaria.

Youth, south, southern, cleanse and clean.

Doctrine, turpentine, marine.

Compare alien with Italian,

Dandelion and battalion.

Sally with ally, yea, ye,

Eye, I, ay, aye, whey, and key.

Say aver, but ever, fever,

Neither, leisure, skein, deceiver.

Heron, granary, canary.

Crevice and device and aerie.

Face, but preface, not efface.

Phlegm, phlegmatic, ass, glass, bass.

Large, but target, gin, give, verging,

Ought, out, joust and scour, scourging.

Ear, but earn and wear and tear

Do not rhyme with here but ere.

Seven is right, but so is even,

Hyphen, roughen, nephew Stephen,

Monkey, donkey, Turk and jerk,

Ask, grasp, wasp, and cork and work.

Pronunciation (think of Psyche!)

Is a paling stout and spikey?

Won’t it make you lose your wits,

Writing groats and saying grits?

It’s a dark abyss or tunnel:

Strewn with stones, stowed, solace, gunwale,

Islington and Isle of Wight, Housewife, verdict and indict.

Finally, which rhymes with enough,

Though, through, plough, or dough, or cough?

Hiccough has the sound of cup.

My advice is to give up!!!

Of course many of those words are perfectly phonetic, and obey the rules of phonics. It’s just that the rules, which are easily learned, are not taught in first and second grade, when they are easily learned. “I before e except after c or pronounced with an a as in neighbor and weigh” – is that still taught? I learned it in first grade. English is over 90% phonetic. For those who want to be sure their children learn all the rules, Mrs. Pournelle’s Reading Program, which is old and hokey but which works quite well teaches it all at first grade level in seventy half hour lessons. Some pupils may have to repeat a lesson or two, and that works just fine too. Half an hour a day and about seventy lessons, and you can be sure of knowing how to read nearly every word in the English language including long compound scientific words like multihydroxyltrinitrotoluene, although it may be a few years before you know what it means or if has a meaning. But you can read it. The program is available here:  http://www.readingtlc.com   It works.

Ice Age Deferred

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-16439807

Carbon emissions ‘will defer Ice Age’

Lawrence

Fire and Ice – again

Dr. Pournelle –

So we have another potential wrinkle in the "debate" about climate change.

Carbon emissions ‘will defer Ice Age’

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-16439807

"Researchers used data on the Earth’s orbit and other things to find the historical warm interglacial period that looks most like the current one.

In the journal Nature Geoscience, they write that the next Ice Age would begin within 1,500 years – but emissions have been so high that it will not."

"Dr Skinner’s group – which also included scientists from University College London, the University of Florida and Norway’s Bergen University – calculates that the atmospheric concentration of CO2 would have to fall below about 240 parts per million (ppm) before the glaciation could begin.

The current level is around 390ppm."

"He [Lawrence Mysak, emeritus professor of atmospheric and oceanic sciences at McGill University] suggested that the value of 240ppm CO2 needed to trigger the next glaciation might however be too low – other studies suggested the value could be 20 or even 30ppm higher."

According to some, getting atmospheric CO2 levels to pre-industrial levels, as some seek, would take them to the area of 270 ppm – much of it depends upon when you define the start of the industrial revolution. While I grew up with the date of 1769, I’ve seen as early as 1735 to as late as 1810.

It just gets more interesting all the time. Perhaps I should read Fallen Angels again.

Pieter

AGW and the next ice age

A new paper suggests that man-made global warming is the only thing stopping the next ice age. Where have I heard that before?

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/01/08/new-paper-agw-may-save-us-from-the-next-ice-age/#comment-860182

Mike Flynn

Holding off the Ice Age

Yet more confirmation of “Fallen Angels” here:

http://hotair.com/archives/2012/01/09/only-you-can-save-earth-from-the-next-ice-age/

“Human CO2 holding off the Ice Age.” At some point, they really should name that idea after you.

Tom Brosz

Catastrophic Warming V Catastrophic Cooling – New Scare Same as the Old Scare

I’m probably not the only one to send you this. 😉 http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2012/01/09/global-warming-to-save-the-planet/

"could Fallen Angels <http://www.amazon.com/Fallen-Angels-Larry-Niven/dp/0743471814> , the dystopian novel about the consequences of a new Ice Age by Larry Niven, Jerry Pournelle and Michael Flynn be more science than fiction?…

sometime in the next 1500 years a devastating new Ice Age will descend on Planet Earth. As in past Ice Ages, glaciers would cover much of the northern hemisphere, many species would face extinction and the productivity of the biosphere would diminish as fertile farmlands went under the ice.

But, the scientists say, that won’t happen now, thanks to man’s new best friend: greenhouse gasses. Rising levels of CO2 will offset the natural forces leading to a new Ice Age, saving civilization from its greatest test yet…."

Neil C

We told it all in Fallen Angels….

The Zen of Firefly and Serenity …

http://paulinhouston.blogspot.com/2012/01/firefly-and-serenity.html

The Zen of Firefly and Serenity …

"… I aim to misbehave."

—

Paul Gordon

Good Stuff…

Dr. Pournelle:

Herewith a report that the Bunny Inspectorate has an office at the FAA.

It just gets worse and worse.

Jim Watson

+++

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45906825/ns/us_news-environment/#.TwiwE1bhfaE

‘Whooping cranes plane’ runs afoul of FAA

Question over whether pilot needs to have commercial license

Description: Image: Aircraft guides whooping cranes

Operationmigration.org <http://operationmigration.org/> via AP

By JOAN LOWY, updated 1/6/2012 7:47:31 PM ET

WASHINGTON <http://www.bing.com/maps/?v=2&where1=WASHINGTON&sty=h&form=msdate> — Ten young whooping cranes and the bird-like plane they think is their mother had flown more than halfway to their winter home in Florida when federal regulators stepped in.

Now the birds and the plane are grounded in Alabama while the Federal Aviation Administration investigates whether the journey violates regulations because the pilot was being paid by a conservation group to lead the cranes on their first migration instead of working for free.

FAA regulations say only pilots with commercial pilot licenses can fly for hire. The pilots of Operation Migration’s plane are instead licensed to fly sport aircraft because that’s the category of aircraft that the group’s small, open plane with its rear propeller and bird-like wings falls under. FAA regulations also prohibit sport aircraft — which are sometimes of exotic design — from being flown to benefit a business or charity.

The rules are aimed, in part, at preventing businesses or charities from taking passengers for joyrides in sometimes risky planes.

"That’s a valid rule. They shouldn’t be hired to do that. But it wasn’t written, I believe, to stop a wildlife reintroduction," Joe Duff, an Operation Migration co-founder and one of its pilots, said. The conservation group has agreed voluntarily to stop flying and has applied to FAA for a waiver.

"We’re considering that waiver," FAA spokesman Lynn Lunsford said. He said he didn’t know when a decision would be made or whether it would be made before spring, when the birds would return to Wisconsin.

"The same regulations that we’re applying to these pilots we’re applying to everybody who holds that type of (pilot) certificate," Lundsford said. "The regulations are very clear and anyone who is a pilot holding that certificate is expected to know what the duties, privileges and limitations are."

Operation Migration is part of a U.S.-Canadian partnership of government and private organizations trying to re-establish migrating flocks of whooping cranes. The cranes nearly became extinct, dwindling to only 15 birds in 1941. One flyway has already been re-established, but that flock of over 100 birds is vulnerable to extinction should a disaster strike, Duff said.

The grounded birds are part of the organization’s 10-year effort to re-establish an Eastern flyway that disappeared in the late 1800s when the last whooping cranes flying that route died off, he said. Since there were no birds still flying the route, conservationists had to teach young cranes how to make the journey.

The birds are bred and hatched at the Patuxent Wildlife Research Center in Maryland. A small group of conservationists in baggy bird suits that conceal their human features are the first thing the birds see when they begin pecking their way out of their shells. The conservationists also give the birds their first nourishment, thus imprinting themselves as "parent." The first thing they hear is a recording of a crane’s brood call combined with the purr of the small plane’s engine.

The birds are later transferred to a wildlife refuge in Wisconsin, where they are conditioned to follow the baggy-suited humans and purring plane. By fall, they are ready to begin a 1,285 journey from Wisconsin to two wildlife refuges in Florida. The cranes glide behind the plane, surfing on the wake created by its wings. The pilots are dressed in the same baggy white suits and have a fake bird beak attached to one arm, adding to the illusion that the plane is a bird.

It’s a slow trip, primarily because of the plane’s limitations. No flying on windy or rainy days. This year, one young whooping crane took a wrong turn and wound up spending a few days with some sandhill cranes in wetlands before being herded back to the flock. Rain kept the flock on the ground 16 days in Illinois.

Then, just before Christmas, FAA officials told Operation Migration that they had opened an investigation of possible violations. The birds are now safely penned in Franklin County, Ala., while conservationists await a decision on their waiver request.

If the waiver doesn’t come through, "the only option we can think of as a contingency would be to transport them by ground to release sites in Alabama or in Florida," said Peter Fasbender, a U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service field supervisor in Green Bay, Wis., which is part of the partnership to re-establish the cranes.

But Fasbender says he’s confident the young cranes will make it back to Wisconsin in the spring. Once they meet up with other cranes making the journey, he said, they usually don’t have a problem.

The Iron Law in Action