Category Archives: Mail

Mail 721 Tuesday, April 17, 2012

a comment on autism

Dear Dr. Pournelle;

First let me note that I’m pleased that you are feeling better. Your "voice," as it comes across in your writing, seems stronger. Second, and before my comment on autism, let me please add 2 points. I am a neuropsychologist and consider myself to be a scientist. That said, part of my training involved the practice of psychotherapy. In graduate school I was provided a broad spectrum of the classic theoretical approaches for psychopathology and that included the study of the theories of what goes wrong to create psychopathology. My classmates and I also were provided the critical thinking skills to determine where these theories break down (i.e., what phenomena they fail to explain) and what science exists to support the theories. There is experimental research that supports some aspects of Freudian theories. My point is that a doctoral level education in clinical psychology does not necessarily produce adherents. As a whole and over my professional career, the field has shifted away from the grand, all-encompassing theories (like Freud’s) and to smaller theories involving cognition and behavior. The field also is barreling headfirst into evidence-based clinical practice. I would note also that research papers written in the 1930’s describe the symptoms of ADHD. That diagnosis did not hit the mainstream until about 1980; however, prior to that time the diagnosis of "Minimal Brain Dysfunction" was used to describe children who were having difficulty in school. That included attentional symptoms. So the diagnosis of ADHD did not spring up, de-novo.

Now, please let me comment on the diagnosis of autism. In my state, there is considerable pressure put on psychologists, physicians, nurse practitioners, and physician assistants to diagnose children with autistic spectrum diagnoses. In order to obtain behavioral services a sufficiently severe diagnosis is needed. Often I am referred a child who is pathologically shy and has social problems or who has Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder, or who is aggressive and the family is desperate to have a diagnosis of Asperger Disorder for their child as it unlocks the state system for services. Imagine the scene: the mom says, "But doctor if you don’t diagnose little Billy with autism, he’ll lose his home therapist." It is especially difficult in these situations if a well-meaning clinician had "bent" the diagnostic criteria and already made the diagnosis, and it looks like I am going against the known medical history. The internet makes it especially difficult as parents are almost always well educated about the the symptoms of the autistic spectrum and provide information that is tailored, consciously or unconsciously, to support the diagnosis. Unfortunately, much of this information is quite broad and includes statistically infrequent behaviors that while odd, are not part of the current diagnostic criteria.

J

I note in today’s paper that there’s a theory that autism is related to sleep disorders. And I heard on the radio that fluoridation of the water is to blame. And of course there’s the whole vaccination business: when I was a lad we got DPT and smallpox. My children were subjected to about 15 vaccinations. Now, I am told, in some school districts you have to have 43. I have no idea whether being exposed to 40 plus diseases (well, that’s an oversimplification of vaccination and immunization, but it will do for present purposes) has any effect on the “rise in autism” and “ADD and ADHD”. I have observed that rich kids are more likely to have treatable disorders than poor children.

The combination of Internet and entitlements must make life very interesting for practicing psychologists in today’s world. It is a serious matter, but I am not sure what it means to take it seriously now.

I want again to emphasize that in my judgment we don’t know enough to have good theories. We need better case histories, and lots of them, preferably not filtered through the DSM or some grand theory.

Stand your ground & investigations

Dear Jerry –

Victor Hanson’s article on the Martin/Zimmerman case was worth reading, but it contains a common misunderstanding of the Florida Stand Your Ground law. The following information I learned from, of all places, a Public Broadcasting radio show, and was presented by a law school professor. Sorry, but I don’t recall her name or detailed qualifications. You may check it as you wish.

Hanson wrote "Most agree that when one party is shot, killed, and was not armed, then the evidence must be carefully reviewed to substantiate a self-defense plea; the objection is not to the review but to the prejudging of the review and public threats.".

Apparently, the Florida law was written not just to protect against conviction for not running away from a threat, but to protect against the damage an unsuccessful prosecution can cause to those of us who are not wealthy. According to the broadcast, a determination of threat by responding LEOs prevents any further action on the subject. Under the law, the police were actually prohibited from further investigation once they concluded (rightly or wrongly) that Zimmerman reasonably felt threatened.

Regards,

Jim Martin (no relation to Trayvon)

Interesting. And of course that is no longer the case. Zimmerman’s life will never be the same now.

Why aren’t they offering Secretary Napolitano the Martha Stewart suite?

Dr. P,

It appears that the high crime of misstating the truth to Congressional investigators is a greater offense than committing perjury before Congress:

“According to [author Katie] Pavlich, when Homeland Secretary Janet Napolitano testified before Congress about Operation Fast and Furious, she lied on at least two occasions. Twice she was asked if she had discussed Fast and Furious US Attorney General Eric Holder and twice she answered no. Pavlich says that there were five emails that clearly indicate that Napolitano and Holder discussed the failed program within two days after the death of US Border Patrol Agent Brian Terry.

“Another one of Pavlich’s sources told her that an agent from Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) had been assigned to Fast and Furious since it involved the US-Mexico border. ICE is under the Department of Homeland Security and Napolitano was regularly briefed on the operation by the agent.”

<http://www.westernjournalism.com/new-book-contends-napolitano-perjured-herself-before-congress/>

The only other possible explanation for the delta between the Department of Justice’s eagerness to prosecute Secretary Napolitano for false statements made under oath and its eagerness to prosecute Ms. Stewart for false statements not made under oath would be that some perpetrators are more equal than others. I’m sure that couldn’t be the case, could it?

Regards,

William Clardy

One might have thought so. But this is Washington in 2012…

Getting the new version from Amazon

Dr Pournelle

"Amazon has a policy of giving a free download of a corrected edition to anyone who bought the previous edition"

<https://www.jerrypournelle.com/chaosmanor/?p=6833>

That’s what they advertise, but my experience differs.

In response to my request, Nancy Fulda posted ‘Hexes and Tooth Decay’ on Amazon. Bought it. Had a formatting error. I told Nancy. She corrected the error and uploaded the new version. I deleted my old version and reloaded. Still had the formatting error. I RETURNED my copy and bought a new one. Still had the formatting error.

I hear I have to go through Amazon Customer Service to get the new version. That is more bother than I care to go through. (So sue me. I’m lazy.) Oughta be an easier way.

My experience is that getting a corrected version of a work I bought before the correction ain’t easy and ain’t intuitive. That Amazon makes it possible does not mean their way passes my cost-benefit calculation. No matter what Amazon might think, my time has value — if not to them, to me.

Live long and prosper

h lynn keith

That isn’t my experience. When we found errors in some previous books, my agent simply took them down, I did the proofing, and we put them back up again. Of course if you work through publishers you’re pretty well at their mercy. In my case I have a couple of books I put up myself (well, with the help of Eric Pobirs and Captain Morse and Rick Hellewell and lots of other friends), and some which have been put up by my agent (she or her predecessors sold the books in the first place long ago and this seemed a very fair way to do this). In both cases it’s easy to get a quick response.

Regarding Red Heroin, I have been looking at the text and it’s not as bad as it might have been, but there are several irritating instances of the letter I being converted into a 1, which in a first person viewpoint story will cause a really bad break in empathy. I’m fixing it, and going over some of the other works while I’m at it.

I’m sorry to hear about the problem, but so far we haven’t had that difficulty to the best of my knowledge. Of course I have only my own book experiences as data.

Himalayan glaciers actually GAINING ice, space scans show:

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/04/16/himalayan_karakoram_glaciers_gaining_ice/

An inconvenient truth?

Ed

Which is hardly astonishing since glacier formation is far more dependent on rainfall and moisture content than temperature. Actually, warmer climates ought to be wetter, shouldn’t they? Which would mean more snowfall and glaciers which should mean more reflectivity which should mean cooling which – but I am not a climate modeller. I would have thought that kind of loop would be built into the models, though.

Ancient weather History Channel Canada

http://www.history.ca/ontv/titledetails.aspx?titleid=251058

Ancient Weather

<javascript:window.print()> >>Watch Full Episodes <http://www.history.ca/video/default.aspx?releasePID=YucrvuYxjnHOZ_okGYrkvUeMx6gBxNqY>

[a cousin in Minnesota tried and found them blocked to USA viewers; perhaps you can find it on DVD or history.com will broadcast them – tell them you’re interested]

In this major new four-part [only three episodes broadcast] series, Tony Robinson travels back through 200,000 years of human history to find out what happened to our ancestors when violent climate change turned their world upside down.

Some civilisations flourished while others were destroyed. Vicious and sudden changes to the climate killed millions; but benign climate conditions have enabled humans to multiply and develop at an extraordinary pace. Using CGI effects and stunning imagery, this series visualises the world’s changing landscape over tens of thousands of years.

Tony asks what our society can learn as we face our own climate crisis today and seeks answers at some of the world’s most important and intriguing archaeological sites, speaking to leading archaeologists, historians and climate scientists. Helping on his quest are climate change archaeologist, Dr Jago Cooper and climate modeller, Dr Joy Singarayer.

upcoming episodes

The Triumph of Homo Sapiens airs Saturday, April 14 at 1:00 AM EST (CC) <http://www.history.ca/ontv/titledetails.aspx?titleid=250957>

The Birth of Civilization airs Saturday, April 14 at 2:00 AM EST (CC) <http://www.history.ca/ontv/titledetails.aspx?titleid=250895>

Killer Climate airs Saturday, April 14 at 3:00 AM EST (CC) <http://www.history.ca/ontv/titledetails.aspx?titleid=250995>

[The modern world online/not broadcast; there were two interruptions saying content not available in first half, then resumed]

Their summaries don’t suggest the extent of the extreme climate change that has occurred over 200,000 years. At one time the Atlantic ocean sea level was so low that the British Isles were connected by a huge land bridge to Europe and people farmed where the Black Sea now exists. One extreme change made the difference. Or the fertile Sahara became a desert. Just for the serious and intellectually honest viewer.

I’m glad you’re recovering from whatever ailed you. Me, I’m in wait and watch mode with a prostate cancer early stages diagnosis but enjoying life in the meantime. I leave the worrying to those who can do something about it. My Grandfather survived cancer in his 70s and lived to 92.

Cheers, Ray Whidden

Edmonton, Alberta, Canada

My daughter has developed theories of how early civilizations and cities formed in what is now the Persian Gulf (see Diving into Noah’s Flood) and that’s just a few thousand years. Of course Niven and I had quite different weather in our pre-histories (Burning City, Burning Tower) which take place 14,000 years ago just after Atlantis sank… (I hasten to add that Jenny’s theories are intended to be serious…)

Civilizing Humanity

I’m just a house-wife, but I think that last link you’re still thinking on is looking at societies as individual things, rather than vague… group-area things. Objects instead of colors, to try to use metaphor to explain.

Death tends to happen on the edges of society or control– the more advances a society is, the more it can "cover," and there’s less need for death. Picture the proper treatment for someone who randomly thinks that everyone is trying to kill him in a low-level tribal society (death– or he’ll kill you, and a bunch of other people) or modern society (put him in a mental ward.) Ditto for a family that tends to produce kids who are homicidal psychotics– kill off the family as a potential threat, or monitor the family closely for signs of psychosis.

"Out-laws" were those who were outside of the protection of law, yes? That’s why it was such a big deal. And cultural clashes are sort of like the plates of the earth– sometimes they both just there, sometimes they pull apart, usually they’re grinding against each other.

Way-back, there were small color blots of cultures that faded out before they really reached any other blot. Time goes on, and the blots start clashing, with the saturated blots wiping out the faded edges of other blots. Now? The blots are petty solidly saturated, so you get mixing, but there’s not so much overwhelming.

Sorry for the funky metaphor. Really long way of saying that the folks who will kill people have to have targets that aren’t either able to protect themselves or be protected by others, and the more packed in folks get, the more unable-to-defend folks can be covered by a group defender.

Amanda S.

As the rule of law fades and we build more and more structure things will change. And not for the better. Street gangs are a reaction to the absence of law and order. Perhaps it is the duty of the young men to be warriors, and if society gives them no part in that they will take one.

Tornado Recovery: How Joplin is Beating Tuscaloosa

Comment: the comprehensive plan adopted by Tuscaloosa is laced with the philosophical poison of sustainable development and chapter 6 is specifically devoted to the subject. Mayor Maddox acknowledged that one of the strings attached to FEMA’s supposed grant (there is no free lunch) is the official adoption of a comprehensive plan.

http://tuscaloosaforward.com/documents/Tuscaloosa%20Forward%20-%20August03.pdf

FEMA document: Planning for a Sustainable Future

http://www.fema.gov/library/file;jsessionid=7D9A938D46B57918A7D884527DBBA344.Worker2Library?type=publishedFile&file=fema364.pdf&fileid=2545c8a0-46ef-11db-a421-000bdba87d5b

Wall Street Journal: Tornado Recovery: How Joplin is Beating Tuscaloosa

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303404704577309220933715082.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

Wall Street Journal

April 13, 2012

Tornado Recovery: How Joplin Is Beating Tuscaloosa

by David T. Beito and Daniel J. Smith

Last April 27, one of the worst tornadoes in American history tore through Tuscaloosa, Ala., killing 52 people and damaging or destroying 2,000 buildings. In six minutes, it put nearly one-tenth of the city’s population into the unemployment line. A month later, Joplin, Mo., suffered an even more devastating blow. In a city with half the population of Tuscaloosa, a tornado killed 161 and damaged or destroyed more than 6,000 buildings.

More than 100,000 volunteers mobilized to help the stricken cities recover. A "can-do" spirit took hold, with churches, college fraternities and talk-radio saions leading the way. But a year after the tragedies, that spirit lives on far more in Joplin than in Tuscaloosa. Joplin is enjoying a renaissance while Tuscaloosa’s recovery has stalled.

In Joplin, eight of 10 affected businesses have reopened, according to the city’s Chamber of Commerce, while less than half in Tuscaloosa have even applied for building permits, according to city data we reviewed. Walgreens revived its Joplin store in what it calls a "record-setting" three months. In Tuscaloosa, a destroyed CVS still festers, undemolished. Large swaths of Tuscaloosa’s main commercial thoroughfares remain vacant lots, and several destroyed businesses have decided to reopen elsewhere, in neighboring Northport.

The reason for Joplin’s successes and Tuscaloosa’s shortcomings? In Tuscaloosa, officials sought to remake the urban landscape top-down, imposing a redevelopment plan on businesses. Joplin took a bottom-up approach, allowing businesses to take the lead in recovery.

The city of Joplin, Mo., has relaxed zoning mandates and issued thousands of repair and building permits since a major tornado struck on May 22, 2011.

"Out of the heartbreak of disaster," declared Tuscaloosa Mayor Walt Maddox several days after his city’s tornado, "rises an extraordinary opportunity to comprehensively plan and rebuild our great city better than ever before." In this transformative spirit, Tuscaloosa’s city council imposed a 90-day construction moratorium in the disaster area, restricting commercial and residential redevelopment until officials could craft and adopt a long-term master plan. Many of the restrictions remained long after the moratorium officially expired. Joplin, by contrast, passed a 60-day moratorium that applied only to single-family residential structures and was lifted on a rolling basis, as each section of the city saw its debris cleared, within 60 days.

The Alabama city’s recovery plan, "Tuscaloosa Forward," is indeed state-of-the-art urban planning—and that’s the crux of the problem. It sets out to "courageously create a showpiece" of "unique neighborhoods that are healthy, safe, accessible, connected, and sustainable," all anchored by "village centers" for shopping (in a local economy that struggles to sustain current shopping centers). Another goal is to "preserve neighborhood character" from a "disproportionate ratio of renters to owners." The plan never mentions protecting property rights.

In Joplin, the official plan not only makes property rights a priority but clocks in at only 21 pages, compared with Tuscaloosa’s 128. Joplin’s plan also relied heavily on input from businesses (including through a Citizen’s Advisory Recovery Team) instead of Tuscaloosa’s reliance on outside consulting firms. "We need to say to our businesses, community, and to our citizens, ‘If you guys want to rebuild your houses, we’ll do everything we can to make it happen,’" said Joplin City Council member William Scearce in an interview.

Instead of encouraging businesses to rebuild as quickly as possible, Tuscaloosa enforced restrictive zoning rules and building codes that raised costs—prohibitively, in some cases. John Carney, owner of Express Oil Change, which was annihilated by the storm, estimates that the city’s delays and regulation will cost him nearly $100,000. And trying to follow the rules often yielded mountains of red tape, as the city rejected businesses’ proposals one after another.

"It’s just been a hodgepodge," says Mr. Carney. "We’ve gotten so many mixed signals from the get go. The plans have been ever-changing." Boulevard Salon owner Tommy Metrock, one of the few business owners to rebuild on Tuscaloosa’s main thoroughfare, McFarland Boulevard, says the restrictions created "chaos" as people put their livelihoods on hold while the city planned.

Joplin took a dramatically different approach. According to interviews with local business owners, right after disaster struck the city council formally and informally rolled back existing regulations, liberally waving licensing and zoning mandates. It even resisted the temptation to make "safe rooms" a condition of rebuilding.

The owner of one Joplin construction company told us that when it came to regulations, the "city just sort of backed out. . . . We had projects that we completed before we got building permits." Said another Joplin resident: "When you have the magnitude of that disaster, really the old ways of doing things are suspended for a while until you create whatever normal is. . . . The government was realistic to know that there is a period of time when common sense, codes and laws that are in place to protect people are suspended for the sake of the greater good."

Despite it all, Tuscaloosa officials are determined to stick to their plan. The final version of Tuscaloosa Forward is on track for approval by the City Council. The city is banking on defraying its costs through as-yet-unreceived funding from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the Department of Housing and Urban Development, and other federal bodies. As Tuscaloosa Forward bluntly acknowledges, full implementation of the plan is impossible without "public subsidies to leverage private capital."

Last year’s decentralized volunteer response seems to be entirely forgotten by city officialdom. As Mayor Maddox recently said: If Tuscaloosa "had a trained FEMA corps on the ground" when the tornado struck, "they could have taken over organizing the volunteers immediately."

In an age of mounting deficits and limited federal attention spans, hoping for more subsidies from Washington, D.C. is a risky bet at best. Joplin’s safer wager is in the good sense and independently generated resources of those individuals and businesses most directly affected by nature’s fury.

Mr. Beito is a professor of history at the University of Alabama. Mr. Smith is a professor of economics at Troy University and the co-author, with Daniel Sutter, of "Private and Public Sector Responses to the 2011 Tornadoes," a study forthcoming from the Mercatus Center.

I truly believe that we were far better off with Civil Defense, and that FEMA can’t possibly work. But I have said that often before.

Normal Holocene Weather

Mr. Tips comment that weather from 1920-1980 was unusually benign, and that we are now returning to Normal Holocene Weather was interesting. Looking for more information, I searched for the term via Google. It seems he has posted similar comments on a number of climate blogs. Unfortunately, I wasn’t able to find any other references or supporting material for this claim. The only lead he offers (in comments to other blogs) was that it might have been published in Smithsonian magazine in the 1974-75 time frame.

While I don’t doubt that Mr. Tips is sincere in what he recalls, I am old enough to have discovered that I sometimes suffer faulty memory recall for things like this, and hence tend to treat my own recollections with some caution. It would be nice to have additional references for something this intriguing. I wonder if any of your other readers can provide links to publications which support the assertion.

Craig

I have heard this said often, but off the top of my head I don’t recall the sources. I make no doubt some will come to us. Thanks

Memory Engineering

Jerry,

This is, I think, quite important – a theory of how memory works that includes techniques for modifying and/or erasing specific memories, using currently available neurochemicals, with considerable evidence that it works. There are interesting implications.

Apparently long-term memory involves destructive reads – recalling a long-term memory automatically rewrites it, modified to some extent to reflect your current mental state. (Anyone who’s looked into witness unreliability over time says, "ah-hah!")

There are therapeutic implications: Recalling a traumatic memory while in a positive mental state (however induced) can reshape the memory and reduce the trauma.

There are terrifying implications: Recalling a memory while dosed with a blocker for an essential memory (re)formation neurochemical erases that memory.

They’ve tested it on rats, so far. It requires direct injection of the blocker chemical into the brain, so far. It works quite well to erase specific rat memories, so far.

We live in interesting times. (Uh, what were we talking about?)

http://www.wired.com/magazine/2012/02/ff_forgettingpill/all/1

Henry

I once participated in implanting memories (harmless ones, with parents’ consent) in young children. They become very real. And I am now becoming very familiar with the phenomenon of forgetting, becoming well known as absent minded, particularly for names. Embarrassing. My consolation is that my present memory isn’t much worse than Niven’s was when I met him forty years ago.

"They say a snake bit her once …

… and died."

http://paulinhouston.blogspot.com/2012/04/snake-bit-her-once.html

>Paul Gordon

Mail 720 Thursday, April 12, 2012

‘Cevik Bir, the founding officer of an army unit established to head off Islamic challenges to the secular state, was taken into custody in Istanbul on Thursday.’

<http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/13/world/middleeast/turkey-detains-military-leaders-for-role-in-1997-coup.html>

——

Roland Dobbins

This is potentially disastrous news. It may mark the end of Kemal’s brotherhood.

Hillary Rosen

Worse yet for Rosen (and the White House) is that her misfired shot at Ann Romney has refocused attention on Michelle Obama’s $300K/yr patronage job at the U of Chicago Hospital that was created for her (and never refilled after she left) while her husband was in the Illinois State Senate.

Oops.

Lee Stillman

Chicago politics is just about what you think it is, but people are always astonished when they discover it.

Just damn cool!

http://www.gizmag.com/great-paper-airplane-project/21961/

Cheap energy = prosperity!

Drill here, DRILL NOW!

David Couvillon

Colonel, U.S. Marine Corps Reserve, Retired.; Former Governor of Wasit Province, Iraq; Righter of Wrongs; Wrong most of the time; Distinguished Expert, TV remote control; Chef de Hot Dog Excellance; Avoider of Yard Work

Physically strong men are more likely to hold right wing political views because they believe society should be geared to personal struggle and self-preservation, an academic study claims.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/howaboutthat/9197597/Strong-men-more-likely-to-vote-Conservative.html

—–

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

I had not heard that hypothesis before. Let’s see. Buckley was a sailor. Kirk walked sometime but actually hardly ever went outside. Thinking back on the conservatives I have known, most don’t stand out as strong. I suppose people would have called me that in that I did lead hikes into the high sierra but I never thought of myself as having much strength.

George Zimmerman idea

So when the warrant is issued, he needs to have one of his friends turn him in, collect the bounty from the NBP, then use it to offset the cost of his defense.

B

Great idea. Alas. It came too late…

Fukushima was not a problem?  The Army disagrees:

<.>

The Troop Support branch of the Defense Logistics Agency has decided to replenish its stockpiles of anti-radiation pills, citing the ongoing crisis at Fukushima and the potential for nuclear fallout as a primary reason behind the bulk purchase.

</>

http://www.infowars.com/army-stockpiles-anti-radiation-pills-to-protect-against-fukushima-fallout/

I’m glad to see the army is faster than the general public, but it is still not as fast as me…

—–

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

I would not draw that conclusion. The tsunami killed tens of thousands. Some died from the lack of power that Fukushima would have generated, but the number harmed by radiation? The military has good reason to be prepared of course.

For Feds, ‘Lying’ Is a Handy Charge – WSJ.com

Didn’t Martha Stewart go to jail for lying?

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303299604577328102223038294.html

John

I think the lesson is self evident. Stewart was jailed for denying something that she did something that wasn’t a crime to begin with. Special prosecutors always get something.

Is this considered a hate crime?

Found this on reddit. Warning very raw footage of a violent mob attacking one individual. Also notice the CNN report. How would the news react differently if the man wasn’t white but the crowd was?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YwoEh-ZwlCI&feature=watch_response <http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YwoEh-ZwlCI&feature=watch_response>

CNN report

http://www.cnn.com/2012/04/10/justice/maryland-beating/index.html?iref=allsearch <http://www.cnn.com/2012/04/10/justice/maryland-beating/index.html?iref=allsearch>

According to the smoking gun this happened right outside the Baltimore Courthouse

http://www.thesmokinggun.com/buster/assault/videotaped-baltimore-street-beating-879234 <http://www.thesmokinggun.com/buster/assault/videotaped-baltimore-street-beating-879234>

G Bushnell

Is it possible to have black on white hate crimes in Baltimore?

Marines Push Quietly, But Hard, For Navy to Replace C-2s With V-22s

Makes sense to me.

http://defense.aol.com/2012/04/06/marines-push-quietly-but-hard-for-navy-to-replace-c-2s-with-v/?icid=related1

"Fathom the hyprocrisy of a government that features every citizen to prove they are insured…. but not everyone must prove they are a citizen." Ben Stein

NASA Insiders Denounce Agency’s Global Warming Activism

I’ve long wondered how that nutjob James Hansen has been able to keep his job.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/04/10/hansen-and-schmidt-of-nasa-giss-under-fire-engineers-scientists-astronauts-ask-nasa-administration-to-look-at-emprical-evidence-rather-than-climate-models/

Michael Reed

As long as he wants to, I suspect.

NASA Scientists rebuke NASA for promoting man-made climate fears!

Friends and Colleagues,

This one is SO AMUSING to me, but maybe I have a sick sense of humor. NASA’s Jim Hansen has long been the one of the top dozen cronies for the Radical Left’s agenda to push Global Warming Alarmism, and it seems like enough is enough.

It is particularly fitting that this outrage comes concurrent with Senator Inhofe’s book The Greatest Hoax <http://www.amazon.com/The-Greatest-Hoax-Conspiracy-Threatens/dp/1936488493/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1334095848&sr=1-1> , a book I highly recommend. I put up a review on Amazon for his book, so please take a look. My suggestion is that if you read only one book about Global Warming Alarmism, this is the one.

Finally, it is also gratifying that the late novelist Dr. Michael Crichton (who got death threats, ridicule, and was spurned by Hollywood for not going along with Global Warming Alarmism) is also being vindicated. His novel State of Fear <http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0061782661/ref=cm_cr_asin_lnk> was right on, and prescient. I think that 50 years from now this book will be seen as his best work.

Enjoy and learn. Perhaps sanity is returning, if we can but survive this Administration’s false science, fear-mongering, divisiveness, class warfare, and race-baiting until November.

Best,

John D. Trudel

I would not go so far as to use the term hoax, but the consensus view on global warming and climate change is coming apart. We just don’t know enough about climate trends. It is time we found out more with real science rather than leaping to conclusions and then funding only studies consistent with those conclusions.

Analysis of Sci-Fi Field

This columnist has an interesting take on how Sci-Fi morphed from an literature of optimism in the Golden Age to a literature of pessimism nowadays. I’ve long thought the field took a dark turn somewhere and I lost my passion for it in the 1980’s. Then again, maybe it was me that changed, not the field.

http://pjmedia.com/eddriscoll/2012/04/04/why-we-need-big-bold-science-fiction/

Michael Reed

Science fiction comes in waves. I tell stories that have fantastic elements in them. Rather like the old bards who sang to the warriors. Come, give me some of that wine and a slice of that roast, and I will tell you of a place where men can fly, and a story about a virgin and a bull…

Seen on Slashdot

http://news.illinois.edu/news/12/0410braininjury_AronBarbey.html

“Scientists report that they have mapped the physical architecture of intelligence in the brain. Theirs is one of the largest and most comprehensive analyses so far of the brain structures vital to general intelligence and to specific aspects of intellectual functioning, such as verbal comprehension and working memory.”

“The researchers also found that brain regions for planning, self-control and other aspects of executive function overlap to a significant extent with regions vital to general intelligence.”

This, as they say, has implications.

John

Perhaps.

Ron Paul

Most of us never planned on winning; we are in the race for an entirely different reason and we are only getting stronger as the non-thinking academicians and ideologues get weaker and more laughable to the world. 

<.>

It should be obvious by now what Ron Paul’s strategy is. Benton alluded to it – to “press the fight for limited, constitutional government’ all the way to the convention floor in Tampa.

“Ron Paul may not get the GOP nomination for president in 2012, but whoever does will be leading a party much different from the one that exists today. It will include delegates to the national convention, activists, and party officials who support a non-interventionist foreign policy, sound money, and civil liberties. You talk about a nightmare for the party oligarchs!”Kenn Jacobine wrote last month.

</>

http://www.infowars.com/new-york-times-clueless-why-ron-paul-keeps-campaigning/

I suspect that with the loss of the geriatric vote and the boomer vote, we might have a decent party again  but I doubt we will have much of a country to preside over. 

—–

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

If Obama is reelected what happens then?

eBooks vs. Print

Dr. Pournelle,

I thought you might enjoy this blog post about the transition to eBooks.

http://www.codinghorror.com/blog/2012/04/books-bits-vs-atoms.html

Regards,

Kenny Biel

Lucifer’s Hammer

Short and sweet. Do you think Peter Jackson and/or Neil Blomkamp could bring LH, my favorite story, to the screen and do it justice? I think it would be wonderful to see the character’s brought to life and I think the story is more timely than ever before, given our current situation in both the US and the world in general. Thanks so much.

Paul Miller

We have sold options on Lucifer’s Hammer several times, but none has ever been picked up, and just now no one has an option. I’d love to see it made into a movie. Thanks for the kind words. It has held up pretty well for many years.

Alice Rivlin on Federal Spending

Jerry,

This year, Alice Rivlin, President Clinton’s director of OMB, 1994-1996, wrote:

"For the foreseeable future, if policies are not changed, federal spending will grow faster than the economy and faster than revenues at any set of tax rates. This trajectory cannot be sustained indefinitely. Any country whose public debt keeps rising faster than its GDP can grow will eventually be in trouble. The only question is, ‘When?’"

—Dr. Alice M. Rivlin in "The Domenici-Rivlin Tax Reform Proposal" By Alice M. Rivlin, The Brookings Institution and Georgetown University, Presented at the Annual Meetings of the American Economic Association Chicago, Illinois, January 7, 2012,

Link to retrieve article:

<http://www.aeaweb.org/aea/2012conference/program/retrieve.php?pdfid=641>

We continue to live in Robert Heinlein’s "Crazy Years." I do have to remember that despair is a sin 🙁

Regards, Charles Adams, Bellevue, NE

The crazy years. Indeed.

US ecosystems basically unaffected by global warming, studies show 

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/04/10/streams_unaffected_by_global_warming/

US ecosystems basically unaffected by global warming, studies show

Streams fail to dry up as expected at test sites

By Lewis Page <http://forms.theregister.co.uk/mail_author/?story_url=/2012/04/10/streams_unaffected_by_global_warming/>

Posted in Biology <http://www.theregister.co.uk/science/biology/> , 10th April 2012 11:37 GMT <http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/04/10/>

Scientists monitoring water flow in streams at test sites across the USA have found, unexpectedly, that the global warming seen in the late 20th century had basically no effect on most of the ecosystems they studied.

The world in general is thought to have warmed up by approximately half a degree C from 1980 to the year 2000, and while the past decade has seen no further increase, most full-time professional climate scientists expect warming to resume in the near future. However there has been much disagreement as to just what effects this could have.

It has often been suggested that the 20th-century warming alone would be sufficient to start causing noteworthy damage to various important ecosystems such as the wet forests of the US Pacific Northwest, which might in turn result in higher levels of atmospheric carbon going forward as trees died and decomposed – and then in future failed to absorb the large amounts of CO2 they normally would. Such postulated positive-feedback mechanisms provide much of the basis for forecasts showing rapidly-climbing global temperatures in this century.

For this reason, the US government has been establishing long-term monitoring facilities across its territory for decades now, allowing accurate records to be collected showing exactly what ecosystem impacts have occurred. Results are now in on 35 important headwater basins feeding river systems across the States over the last 20 to 60 years: and they show that in 28 of these, no effects on water flow from warming could be found at all.

Even where a warming-driven effect could be identified in the record, it was small compared to other more important factors such as "municipal and agricultural water usage, forest management, wildfire, hurricanes, and natural climate cycles".

"When presented with warmer and drier conditions, trees in the Pacific Northwest appear to use less water and therefore the impact on streamflow is reduced,” explains geographer Julia Jones. “In other parts of the country, forest regrowth after past logging and hurricanes thus far has a more definitive signal in streamflow reduction than have warming temperatures.”

According to a statement <http://oregonstate.edu/ua/ncs/archives/2012/apr/study-impact-warming-climate-doesn%E2%80%99t-always-translate-streamflow> [1] issued by Jones’ university highlighting the new research:

Jones said the important message in the research is that the impacts of climate change are not simple and straightforward.

The full paper (pdf) <http://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/sites/harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/files/BioScience_Jones.pdf> [2] is published in the journal BioScience.

Previous data <http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/02/20/ecosystems_not_much_impacted_by_drought_heatwave/> [3] from the US long-term environment monitor stations has also shown that droughts and heatwaves aren’t nearly so big a deal for ecosystems as had been thought.

Tracy

And we can end with a cheerful note:

US government service improves after virus takes out email:

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/04/10/us_government_service_improves_without_email/print.html

“A virus attack which hit the US Economic Development Administration (EDA) [1] was so severe the agency pulled the plug on its email systems. Twelve weeks later the agency is yet to fully restore email and has only a rudimentary web site in place. But as the Washington Post reports [2], some of the agency’s staff and customers have found faxes and phone calls offer better and faster service.” <snip>

“You pick up your phone and you get back to some human interaction,” one customer told the Post, “which in my opinion is never a bad thing, especially for government.”

We knew it all along.

Ed

Mail 719 Saturday, April 07, 2012

Catching up a little on mail…

· Good News?

· National Debt and Inflation

· Global Warming and weather

· Caps Lock Key

· The Zombie Ray

· China and the Party

· The Great Paper Airplane Project

· Zimmerman and retaliation?

· Are Teachers Obsolete?

· Space Access Conference

Some GOOD news out of NBC, for once

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/trayvon-martin-george-zimmerman-911-call-manipulated-nbc-309258

In the Trayvon Miller case, a senior producer at NBC edited Zimmerman’s 911 call, to make Zimmerman sound like a racist scumbag.

When the brown matter impacted the rotary impeller, the public outcry forced NBC to investigate.

NBC has finished their inquiry. The producer was fired.

Maybe there’s hope.

Perhaps good news. What I find appalling is that it took an investigation; in my day only the most partisan and compromised journalists would have even considered doing a stunt like that.

National Debt

While it does not change your main point, it is interesting to note that the National Debt was reduced from $127,334,933.74 on 1/1/1816 to $33,733.05 on 01/01/1835. There were reductions at the end of every fiscal year except 1821. That was the closest the National debt came to being eliminated.

From 1804 to 1812 the debt had been reduced from $86,427,120.88 to $45,209,737.90 before climbing to the 1816 level. I expect the War of 1812 and the burning of Washington DC could explain the climb from 1812 to 1816.

There was another reduction from $68,304,796.02 on 7/01/1851 to $28,699,831.85 on 07/01/1857. There was a huge increase in debt during the Civil War, but the debt was reduced from $2,773,236,173.69 on 7/01/1866 to $2,234,482,993.20 on 7/1/1873, and again from $2,349,567,482.0 on 07/01/1879 to $1,545,985,686.13 on 07/01/1893

In about 54 years of the 1800’s the federal debt was reduced. I think we have to give the members of the administrations of the 1800’s a lot more credit for financial management.

In the 1900’s, the debt was reduced in 11 years consistently from $27,390,970,113.12 on 07/01/1919 to $16,185,309,831.43 on 06/30/1930. There were a couple scattered years of debt reduction in the 1950’s,

Since 6/30/1957, the national debt has increased in every year. While Clinton/Gingrich may have had some years of federal budget surpluses, the best that can be said is the rate of public debt increase slowed. While the amount the federal government borrowed by sale of treasury bills may have deceased, this was more then offset by the increases in the amount the federal government owed to the Social Security Trust fund.

So, its really only since 1930, the national debt has had its annual upward increase. I would think it would be more relevant to evaluating solutions to the problem to focus on what has changed from 1893 on, especially changes since 1930 and 1957.

http://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/histdebt/histdebt.htm

Kenneth Klute

owing ourselves

Dr. Pournelle,

There is good reason to worry the national debt, even if ‘we owe it to ourselves’. If inflation ramps up, i.e. we get excessive doses of "quantitative easing," the value of the bond at maturity may have a poor rate of return, or even a loss, after inflation adjustment. Then the government has to offer higher rates to attract investors, which means that the government has to pay out even more, which creates inflation, which devalues the return on bonds, then the government…

Steve Chu

My apologies to my younger readers. I grew up in a time when everyone – and I mean everyone – was familiar with the great inflation in Germany after World War I, when it was literally cheaper to burn banknotes than to buy kindling wood with them if you wanted to heat your room, and employees were let off early on paydays so they could spend their money before it became worthless. Doubtless some of the stories we were told from 5^th grade on were exaggerated, but they stuck in our minds. I tend to forget that for decades now we have had teachers and professors who either never heard of this or don’t care to tell anyone. I have in my possession a stamp, 3 pfennigs, overprinted to 3 mird millionen marks; it’s still a first class letter postage stamp.

We used to all know that running the printing presses destroys money, and that inflation is a tax on fixed incomes and savings. I probably don’t say it often enough. So when the US treasury simply prints more money to pay for treasury bonds, the result is always inflation.

The reason education costs so much is that there is money available to pay for it. Injecting money into a market always causes higher prices. It works in housing, education, and nearly anything else: when more money chases a supply of goods, the price of those goods will rise. Printing lots of money will raise prices on everything. The kind of deficit financing the US engages in – borrowing money to pay operating expenses rather than to invest in specific money-making projects – does not cause inflation, it IS inflation. I don’t say that every time I write on the subject because I forget that there are some who don’t know it. Fear of inflation like fear of unemployment was sort of in the DNA of those who like me grew up during the First Great Depression.

Apologies to whomever sent me the link to this.

http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2012/03/02/japan-invents-speech-jamming-gun-that-silences-people-mid-sentence/?intcmp=features

Imagine how things would be if there were thousands of these distributed all over the country. No more political speeches.

It would work: that is, as an undergraduate in a class taught by Wendell Johnson at the State University of Iowa we experimented with timed delay speech feedback. Johnson was a speech therapist as well as a general semanticist, and one of his techniques for treating stuttering was to teach the students how to stutter, then how to stop. The time delay feedback was utterly effective in inducing stuttering. Boy was it ever!

Johnson’s book People in Quandaries is still well worth your reading. I have no link to an eBook copy. It used to be and may still be available from the Institute for General Semantics, and used hardbound copies sell for about $40. I have my original hardbound which I bought as an undergraduate. It is an exposition on semantics and language from the view of a therapist, and much of it remains relevant. I’d recommend it to teachers as a source of insights.

In about the year 2000 there arose a big controversy over Johnson’s 1939 thesis study, some calling it “the monster study”. This is the first I heard of the matter. I do know that Johnson’s theories and techniques for treatment of stuttering were new and original when he devised them, but became accepted through his efforts, and were responsible for the treatment and cure of thousands. He was also one of the most effective lecturers and teachers I ever met, and I know a lot of them. I remember some of my undergraduate classes with Johnson– one was just after lunch – when I have long forgotten others. He was one of the sanest men I ever met.

I don’t usually pay attention to April Fool stuff, but this is amusing:

Jerry

Here’s Google’s entry for 2012-04-01:

https://www.google.com/intl/en-GB/chrome/multitask.html

Unfortunately, this is one of those jokes that just might show up as a real product. I mean, you could pull it off now.

Ed

The Greatest Hoax….

Friends,

My 5-star review of Senator Inhofe’s excellent book about Global Warming and energy policy just went live on Amazon. The book is called The Greatest Hoax <http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_ss_i_1_16?url=search-alias%3Dstripbooks&field-keywords=the+greatest+hoax+inhofe&sprefix=the+greatest+hoa%2Cstripbooks%2C271> .

There is something that you can do to assist free speech. Amazon is being flooded with negative 1-star reviews from Obamanoid Trolls who have not read the book, but are frantic to suppress it. The book is being trashed, along with any reviewers who have said favorable things about it.

If you could go to Amazon, take a look at the book, and “vote” for the 5-star reviews, it would help.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_ss_i_1_16?url=search-alias%3Dstripbooks&field-keywords=the+greatest+hoax+inhofe&sprefix=the+greatest+hoa%2Cstripbooks%2C271

Thank you.

John

I will not go so far as to use the term Hoax, although certainly some Warmer Believers certainly act like hoaxers. And I am not entirely sure that campaigns to influence the number of stars in reviews are a great idea. I’d hate to have to devote time to things like that. Of course it may have to be done.

A very thoughtful bit of analysis and contextualization of March weather anomaly

Jerry,

Michael Tobis, one of the folks I trust most on providing context and analysis of climate matters has written a fantastic piece on the midwestern March temperature anomaly. He does a very good job of explaining what the atmosphere was doing and how it differed from anything that climate scientists had predicted.

It’s at http://planet3.org/2012/04/04/what-just-happened/

Best,

Jon

A good introduction to the subject. Thanks. Weather remains complex.

The slow, excruciating death of SF

Dr. Pournelle:

As one of the few remaining "big idea" SF authors, your take on ‘Why We Need Big, Bold Science Fiction’ — http://pjmedia.com/eddriscoll/2012/04/04/why-we-need-big-bold-science-fiction/ — would be interesting.

Pete Nofel

I’m not sure I have much to say. As Doc Bussard used to say, the really easy stuff has already been done; the engineering gets harder now. I’m not dead sure that’s true, since computers may start us up another S – curve. As Possony and I said in Strategy of Technology, technological progress goes in S – Curves (called logistics curves), slow at first, very rapid for a while, then slower to no progress—think top speed of airplanes from the Wright Brothers to present. Computers may have started us at the bottom again. Anyway I don’t teach science fiction. I’m with my old friend Harry Harrison. Let’s get science fiction out of the classroom and back in the gutter where it belongs…

Caps Lock disabling

Dr. Pournelle:

There are a couple of small apps out there that will disable some of the useless keyboard keys, such as the Caps Lock and the Windows keys. My apologies for not including a link, but it’s been a year or two since I applied them.

As far as the rising cost of health care, education, government, etc., they can all be traced back to the availability of money. For health care, costs began to rise when health insurance became available. Why would health-care organizations leave that money on the table? It became a positive feedback loop after that. Same for education when student loans began pumping money into colleges and universities. The archtypical example is the growth of government as it could create taxes to expand itself. "The money’s out there, we might as well spend it."

At least in health care, some of the money is used to improve treatment. How many of us would be dead if not for new drugs, equipment, and procedures?

Pete Nofel

Yes I know, but I find that stuffing a bit of sponge rubber under the key works just fine: it leaves the key usable, but you have to mean it.

New Prototype Weapon

The concept is not new; the handheld prototype is.  This could change the face of warfare. 

<.>

Mind-bending ‘psychotronic’ guns that can effectively turn people into zombies have been given the go-ahead by Russian president Vladimir Putin.

The futuristic weapons – which will attack the central nervous system of their victims – are being developed by the country’s scientists.

They could be used against Russia’s enemies and, perhaps, its own dissidents by the end of the decade.

</>

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2123415/Putin-targets-foes-zombie-gun-attack-victims-central-nervous-system.html

—–

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

Zombie guns, death rays, disintegrator rays – some of the great ideas of 1930’s science fiction. So we now all need mind shields… Of course it’s one more thing to worry about.

‘As China enters a more uncertain decade, what’s becoming increasingly apparent is that many of the social and political conditions for producing a Tiananmen-style crisis have re-emerged.’

<http://the-diplomat.com/2012/04/04/signs-of-a-new-tiananmen-in-china/?all=true>

—

Roland Dobbins

The stability of the present system in China depends on the party system. They don’t really attempt to suppress free circulation of ideas, nor to establish a totalitarian state. China has a long tradition of supporting a government that has the mandate of heaven. The leaders are skilled, and the Party cadre is subject to the Iron Law. I don’t pretend to be able to predict what will happen in China. The all pervasive Party system resembles in some respects the old Mandarin civil service.

Seminole County Sheriff’s Office: Two arrested after beating leaves man on life-support – Orlando Sentinel

Jerry,

Interesting event so close in time and space to the Zimmerman case.

http://articles.orlandosentinel.com/2012-04-02/news/os-two-arrested-seminole-beating-20120402_1_victim-arrest-affidavits-crimeline

You will notice that both suspects area bout the same age as Trayvon Martin and look a lot like Martin as well as President Obama’s mythical son.

We still don’t know what happened when Zimmerman shot Martin, but the claim the Zimmerman’s assertion that he was defending himself from a violent assault is not credible is itself absurd.

I wonder if it will turn out that this assault was retaliation for the Martin shooting incited by the Today show’s misleading edit of the 911 call.

Jim Crawford

The news media distortions and the feeding frenzy on this story have shown some of the ugly potential for the new world of instant communications. At best such frenzies spread panic; at worst they are an incitement. This is neither the first nor the last, and the professional victims stand ready to exploit every incident.

The great paper airplane project….

http://www.gizmag.com/great-paper-airplane-project/21961/

At a length of 45 feet (13.7 meters), a wingspan of 24 feet (7.3 m), and a weight of 800 pounds (363 kg), Arturo’s Desert Eagle is claimed to be the largest paper airplane ever made. Its design was based on that of a much smaller paper airplane, created by 12 year-old Arturo Valdenegro of Tucson, Arizona. Valdenegro was the winner of a contest held by the Pima Air & Space Museum, in which children competed to see whose airplane could fly the farthest. A team of engineers proceeded to recreate his winning plane on a grand scale, and last week managed to fly it after releasing it from a helicopter over the Arizona desert.

The Great Paper Airplane Project was intended to get young people interested in careers in the aerospace industry, and it seems to have worked with Valdenegro – he reportedly now plans on pursuing a career in engineering.

Looks like fun and some of these folks got paid to do it. Color me a bit jealous.

John Harlow, President BravePoint

Teacher is Obsolete?

I figured that, with the low standards for teaching in 2012, this would happen.  But, I did not know how they would get their foot in the door on this one, but here it is:

<.>

"American high school students are terrible writers, and one education reform group thinks it has an answer: robots. Or, more accurately, robo-readers — computers programmed to scan student essays and spit out a grade. The theory is that teachers would assign more writing if they didn’t have to read it. And the more writing students do, the better at it they’ll become — even if the primary audience for their prose is a string of algorithms. … Take, for instance, the Intelligent Essay Assessor, a web-based tool marketed by Pearson Education, Inc. Within seconds, it can analyze an essay for spelling, grammar, organization and other traits and prompt students to make revisions. The program scans for key words and analyzes semantic patterns, and Pearson boasts it ‘can "understand" the meaning of text much the same as a human reader.’ Jehn, the Harvard writing instructor, isn’t so sure. He argues that the best way to teach good writing is to help students wrestle with ideas; misspellings and syntax errors in early drafts should be ignored in favor of talking through the thesis."

</>

http://news.slashdot.org/story/12/03/30/2042234/bringing-auto-graders-to-student-essays

Robots can not only pick fruit; they can grade papers.  The teachers will assign more papers if the robot can grade these?  When will they decide that a robot can assign papers more cheaply and does not file sexual harassment complaints or bring law suits? 

I used certain tools to help me improve my writing.  These helped me to avoid passive voice, find verbs, and remove wordiness e.g. that the, and so — one can usually use one word and retain the meaning.  Basically, the software stops you from writing like a pompous ass who does not know how to write in a refined manner.  I do not use this software in my emails; so I reserve the right to be a pompous ass.  =)

—–

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

Actually, with the Kahn lectures widely available on line, bright kids can learn darned near anything no matter how bad the student. Of course they can’t get good discussions that way. In my day we didn’t have Kahn and the Encyclopedia Britannica had to do. I did find Calculus Made Easy at about the right age.

Space Access conference

Jerry,

I appreciate the plug for the Space Access conference the other day. If you get a chance at some point, could you also post the URL for the latest conference info?

space-access.org/updates/sa12info.html

We’ve always been stiff-necked about only listing speakers who’ve confirmed and making sure speakers are on at times they’ll actually be onsite, which can mean late schedule changes. In this case, for the good; we have a couple of last-second additions.

Thanks!

Henry Vanderbilt

SA’12 Conference Manager

Mail 718 Thursday, March 29, 2012

Space Access ’12 Conference – April 12-14 – Phoenix Arizona

SA ’12 will be the next round of Space Access Society’s long-running annual get-together for people seriously interested in the technology, business, and politics of radically cheaper space transportation. This year’s conference sessions will run from Thursday morning April 12th through Saturday evening April 14th. (Our Space Access hospitality suite will be open Wednesday evening for early arrivers.)

Conference location is the Grace Inn, 10831 South 51st Street, Phoenix, AZ, about ten freeway miles from the Phoenix airport. For room reservations, call 800 843-6010 or 480 893-3000, and mention "space access" to get our discount $69/night single-or-double breakfast-included rate. (This rate is good for up to three days before or after the conference.)

Conference registration is $120 in advance, $140 at the door, student rate $40 either way.

There are two options for advance registration:

– You can mail us a check or money order. Include for each registrant the name and affiliation (if any) to be listed on the badge, plus their email address. Make the check out to Space Access ’12, and mail it to:

Space Access ’12, PO Box 16034, Phoenix AZ 85011.

– You can go to

http://www.space-access.org/updates/sa12paypalbutton.html to register online with your credit card or Paypal account.

Either way, advance registrations need to be in our hands by COB Friday April 6th, so our volunteer Registration crew has the weekend before the conference to produce your badges.

Two weeks till the conference begins! It’s time to book that flight to Phoenix; it’ll only cost more if you wait longer. And reserve your hotel room soon, as the hotel is filling up faster than usual this year.

Population decline in the West? Not everywhere.

SO MUCH has changed, yet so much is strikingly familiar.

The census results for 2011 reveal a country of contrasts. Dublin’s commuter belt has grown rapidly and our population is more diverse than ever, but Ireland remains a predominantly Catholic country rooted in tradition, where marriage is enduringly popular and the nuclear family is resilient.

Overall, the census shows the population reached 4.6 million in April 2011, the highest level in 150 years. Population growth has been surprisingly high despite emigration and the economic downturn, driven mainly by an extraordinarily high birth rate with more than 70,000 births per year.

In fact, the natural increase – the number of births minus deaths – is the highest on record for any previous census…..

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2012/0330/1224314102324.html?cmpid=morning-digest&utm_source=morning-digest&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=digests

Which is striking and definitely something to think about. Thanks.

Texas Hospital

My Conclusion: Nuns can run a hospital for a hundred years, businessmen haven’t a clue.

http://www.star-telegram.com/2012/03/29/3845682/jps-to-tear-down-vacant-st-joseph.html

excerpt:

FORT WORTH — The Tarrant County Hospital District plans to spend about $5.5 million to tear down the vacant St. Joseph Hospital complex on south Main Street, with work to begin this summer.

St. Joseph Hospital was founded by nuns in 1885 as Tarrant County’s first hospital. The property was expanded several times. In 1994, Columbia/HCA Healthcare Corp. bought St. Joseph and closed the facilities a year later. The property was sold in 1997 to a California company that operated an Alzheimer’s center from part of the complex before going into bankruptcy.

John Paul Robinson

And in general, local communities can manage things better than the federal government. Civil defense works better than FEMA. Sometime local government is corrupt and inefficient; it then looks to the state and the federal government to bail it out. If that bailout is not possible, the locals understand that they get the government they allow, and a reform movement starts. But with federalization and public employee unions reform cannot happen until there is bankruptcy. And even then the beat goes on for a while.

Dr. Brin is expressing his own damn lie

He implies the canard is the middle class will vote themselves largesse. The fact is, it is the unproductive, lower class that does this. Over time the lower class increases without bounds and gains enough political leverage to out vote the productive. At least that seems to be the case today.

Phil=

I would not put it so strongly, but in general the middle class votes for public benefits, but when you know that you must pay the taxes you vote for it tends to put some restraints on it. When all must pay some taxes, and you don’t get to vote taxes on other people, it is different. In today’s world not quite half never pay income tax at all, yet they get to vote on tax increases.

Liberal view?

Almost one half of the nation’s murder victims that year were black and a majority of them were between the ages of 17 and 29. Black people accounted for 13% of the total U.S. population in 2005. Yet they were the victims of 49% of all the nation’s murders. And 93% of black murder victims were killed by other black people, according to the same report.

Good grief, how can anyone read the above in any way but to say:

Almost half of the murders in the country were committed upon and by a minority that consists of 13% of the population.

My mind boggles at that.

-Paul

Does that need a comment?

Lots of superterrans in the Goldilocks Zone of *red dwarfs*?!

<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/space/9170683/New-life-in-space-hope-after-billions-of-habitable-planets-found-in-Milky-Way.html>

—-

Roland Dobbins

solar power

I once took a tour through the Cappadocia area of Turkey. I noted that virtually every house had a solar hot water heater on the roof. Solar can be used for other things besides generating electricity, which may not be the best use of solar. At least the Turks in that area are using it effectively for hot water.

Joseph P. Martino

Direct solar is often very efficient. In particular, rooftop direct solar heating to heat a swimming pool can be very effective and much more efficient that running a furnace. I know a couple in New Mexico who heat underground gravel in summer, then circulate air through there in winter. Their heating bill is very low even in deep winter. But that takes space and very good insulation. And of course direct solar means you bathe in daytimes if you want hot water.

4 Year Old Picture Leads to Parents Arrest In Canada

Totally 100 percent true, however this is being extensively covered in the new Conservative News Network in Canada, where both the Cops and Teachers are being given intensive scrutiny.

They are currently being sued, and will likely face criminal charges, for violating the Fathers civil rights, turns out they searched his house without a warrant, violated a bunch of police procedure, and worst of all no one can produce a copy of the picture the child drew.

David March

Fusion

Dr. Pournelle

Not that the Huffington Post is the place where I expect to get cutting edge science information, but since you had posted on the issues with making Fusion work, here is a story I came across

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/03/27/nuclear-fusion-power-sandia_n_1381973.html?ref=science&icid=maing-grid10%7Chtmlws-main-bb%7Cdl17%7Csec3_lnk3%26pLid%3D147124

It shows what we are working on here in the U.S. with some interesting possibilities.

David

David Curtis

The health care case at the Supreme Court

Jerry,

I fail to see why people are objecting to the health care mandate. Clearly taking care of the sick is a good thing and the only way it can be affordable is for the healthy to subsidize the sick. Why should we let the states keep us from doing a good thing and caring for the people? While we are at it, a government free from corruption is also a good thing. A number of Governors in Illinois have been sent to jail for corruption. We need better federal oversight of state governments. Also the State of Rhode Island is nearly bankrupt and California has severe problems with their budgets. Of course the South has a poor record on Civil Rights. We need a way to convince the people in the states to let the benevolent federal authorities have greater control. I have a modest proposal to convince the states it is in their interest to allow greater central control. We should enact a law that requires each state to send two children to Washington each year to participate in a televised game….

Mike Plaster

Subj: Where did the Moon come from?

The recent work on Titanium isotope ratios is not the first indication that the Moon is composed of material that condensed from the solar nebula at the same distance from the Sun as the Earth.

Belbruno and Gott described the astrodynamics of the formation of the Moon in 2004:

http://arxiv.org/abs/astro-ph/0405372

Briefly: The impactor formed at the L4 and/or L5 points of the ProtoEarth-Sun system. Perturbations would eventually throw it into a horseshoe orbit. Further perturbations would send it to impact with the ProtoEarth on a zero-energy parabolic trajectory.

Rod Montgomery==monty@starfief.com

What You Lose When You Sign That Donor Card

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204603004577269910906351598.html?mod=WSJ_hp_mostpop_read

"Organ transplantation—from procurement of organs to transplant to the first year of postoperative care—is a $20 billion per year business. Average recipients are charged $750,000 for a transplant, and at an average 3.3 organs, that is more than $2 million per body. Neither donors nor their families can be paid for organs."

Just follow the money. Of course they mean well, unless you are getting chopped up.

Do you have the right to sell your organs? The government says not; it protects you from that, just as you cannot sell yourself into slavery. These are deliberate choices, but there has not been much debate on the subject. Certainly someone gets rich on organ transplants, but it isn’t the donor or donor’s family.

Interactive Scale of the Universe

Jerry,

A fun little overview of the small and the large.

<http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap120312.html>

Regards, Charles Adams, Bellevue, NE