Category Archives: Mail

Mail 735 Thursday, August 02, 2012

Still to ponder…

http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/america-goes-jousting/

The comments are even more interesting.

My take is that the US has slowly lost the ability (mind you, not the capability) to conduct light infantry operations. The USMC is taking steps back to that, but it won’t go far enough. The first step would be (should be, HAS to be) ditching body armor. Sending warriors into 4th generation combat weighed down heavier than Lind’s referenced jousters is just plain foolish. Movement, individual firepower, and local command of the situation is vital to winning in a 4th generation scenario. Soldiers have to mingle with the population and be respected by them. The second step is to stop being squeamish about fighting. As Forrest said, "War means fighting, and fighting means killing." The observation goes both ways, but Patton puts additional perspective, "Make the other poor bastard die…." Sadly, I don’t see either of these two steps being accepted by the current political or social climate – even worse, I don’t foresee the US moving close to this in several generations (caveat – unless we engage in another civil war at home). We want war clean, sanitary, and without consequences. Won’t happen. Never has. Never will. Once control is achieved, then the mailed fist can be covered with the velvet glove – sympathy, concern, assistance, and respect can be made to win the day (and it IS day to day! That means a long time) in 4th generation warfare.

I use my own experiences as example. See attached.

s/f

Couv

Cheap energy = prosperity!

Drill here, DRILL NOW!

David Couvillon

Colonel, U.S. Marine Corps Reserve, Retired.; Former Governor of Wasit Province, Iraq; Righter of Wrongs; Wrong most of the time; Distinguished Expert, TV remote control; Chef de Hot Dog Excellance; Avoider of Yard Work

 

http://www.newsday.com/columnists/other-columnists/this-marine-knows-when-to-put-his-guard-down-1.488969

.

Intangibles vital to change in Iraq
If there is still a lot of danger in Iraq for American troops, there is also an incredible opportunity to help a long-oppressed people get back on their feet and create a working democracy.

We can think of no better example for the people of Iraq than the men and women of the United States, in uniform and in civilian aid services. Our people are there not only to provide security and restoration of essential services. They are there to provide a role model for citizens of a free country.

One unit that is providing aid, tangible and inspirational, to the people of Iraq is the 3rd Battalion of the 23rd Marines, commanded by Lt. Col. David Couvillon and including many Baton Rouge-area reservists.

Couvillon is military provincial governor of Wasit Province, a farming region along the Tigris River south of Baghdad.

Through all sorts of difficulties for the daily life of Iraqis — power blackouts, shortages of essential items, long-term neglect of roads or other essential structures — the Marines toil on. They sleep in a hot hangar at an airfield, and during the hotter days they work on security and trying to restore civic order.

Unemployment and disorganization still are hallmarks of many towns and cities in Iraq.

Couvillon notes that many of the occupation army’s tasks cannot be done overnight, but that expectations among ordinary Iraqis are very high. "It’s hard for people here to see it," he said in a telephone interview. "With America and Great Britain so powerful and so rich, (they want to know) how come it’s not happening right now."

If the Marines can’t work all those miracles, they nevertheless can do a great deal of good in a short time.

But if their contributions to the Iraqi people are tangible and will increase in time, the most important thing is providing leadership on the future of the country — where until recently any dissent was punishable by torture and execution.

Couvillon and his men are also educators, about the importance of liberty and the rule of law. Free enterprise and democracy might not come easily to a people whose lives have been directed from the top down for so long.

Even Wasit’s best-educated residents are ignorant about Western processes and ideas, Couvillon said. "We’re proud that we can bring the idea of freedom and democracy to another country," he said. "Iraq is for Iraqis, and we want to make sure it stays that way."

If the path toward stable and efficient self-government might be a long one, the people of the United States can be proud of the role of Marines and other Americans in building democracy among a people starved for progress and modern ways of life.

.

As you note there is a difference between ability and capability. In 1940 the US had no ability in jungle warfare. As the Japanese learned to their sorrow, we learned fast. If given a mission, the US military responds. If told precisely how to do the work by amateurs and intellectuals, the result is generally a failure. Some Presidents learn fast. Others never do. I see I neglected to post the links to attachments. I will fix that now.

Apologies. I have not way to link to the second article. I seem to be doing something wrong because it wants to link to my own hard drive although it appears on Firefox. I have not time to straighten this out.

Support for Syrian rebels

So the news today President Obama has authorized CIA support for the Syrian rebels.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/aug/02/obama-order-supporting-syria-rebels

These would be the same rebels who are driving Christians out of Syria

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/christians-flee-from-radical-rebels-in-syria-a-846180.html

http://www.rt.com/news/syrian-rebels-desecrate-christian-churches-897/

And who are increasingly allying with Al Queda.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jul/30/al-qaida-rebels-battle-syria

=====

Hmm … since he’s allying the US with Al Queda, whom we are at war with, does this mean he is affording aid and comfort to our enemies and can be impeached for doing so?

Guess not. Foolishness isn’t an impeachable offense. If it were Washington DC would be empty. And we’d have to put Bush up right next to him in the dock for sending us into Iraq and starting this whole mess in the first place.

Isaiah 3:1-4:

"See now, the Lord .. is about to take from Jerusalem and Judah .. the hero and the warrior, the judge and the prophet, the diviner and the elder, the captain of fifty and the man of rank, the counselor, skilled craftsman and clever enchanter. I will make mere youths their officials; children will rule over them.”

Respectfully,

Brian P.

There are many more interesting questions here. The problem started with Bush I and the notion that we had reached the end of history. Liberal democracy would take over and all would be well. Clinton allowed Allbright to continue the folly of American involvement in the territorial disputes of Europe. Bush I at least had the good sense to get us the hell out of Iraq. Alas, that resulted in massacres – predictable if Hussein were left in power – and huge guilt complexes and the continued delusion that we could play the Empire game. Had we been a real Empire and hired Gurkhas to police Iraq after we broke its army, and sent in security forces to pump oil and pump oil and pump oil so that the price of oil fell to $25/bbl the economy would have boomed – but instead we sent in an arrogantely incompetent civilian pro-consul to undo all the work our Legions had done.

And in Afghanistan we conquered but in our arrogance we thought we could impose the will of Kabul on all of Afghanistan. We could do what Alexander the Great understood he could not do.

We sowed the wind.

We continue to sow the wind. But perhaps we have learned that there are limits to what the Legions can do.

When Napoleon reviewed his army before marching to Russia he is said to have turned to Talleyrand and said “See my splendid army! See how their bayonets gleam.”

“You can do anything with a bayonet, sire. Except sit upon it.”

: Olympic coverage

Dear Jerry

A couple of notes about the Olympic coverage. We watched the opening ceremony and parade of athletes on European television, and the whole thing was seamless. The opening ceremony told the story of Britain – perhaps not to your taste, but nonetheless that’s what it was. The parade of athletes contained only about 1/3 of the total participants, but all countries were represented, and the parade was continuous, with no breaks.

In other words, if you saw chopped up coverage with lots of commercial breaks, this was an entirely American phenomenon!

For the sports coverage itself, we have mostly watched live streams on the Internet. As others have noted: the *lack* of a commentator was a sheer relief. One can watch 2-3 hours of continuous sport, with no commercial breaks, no stupid "personal interest" stories. Without the commentator, you can hear the athletes, their coaches, and the crowd – the atmosphere is as close to "being there" as you can get.

If there is no need for commentators, and network coverage is worse than the raw streams off the Internet, is this the beginning of a sea change for sports coverage?

Cheers

Brad

Well, your TV is better than ours. I suppose what we must do is nationalize the stations? Or perhaps it has something to do with badly written exclusivity laws.

As to whether that was the history of Britain, perhaps my sources are not very good. I have to rely on Macaulay, and Green, and Churchill, and my picture of the rise – and, alas fall – of England is something different from what I saw in the performance there. And were I telling the story of England, and had that much talent at my disposal, I might have thought that Kipling deserved a larger place, and perhaps Churchill, but then I guess one cannot offend the other nations.

I used to do baseball games on radio. I thought the game was more important than what I thought of it.

If this is true, we are doomed.  This President is useless, if this is true:

<.>

The Russian Federation has fulfilled all terms of the agreement. And even more. I shut down not only the Cuban Lourdes but also Kamran in Vietnam. I shut them down because I gave my word of honor. I, like a man, has kept my word. What have the Americans done? The Americans are not responsible for their own words. It is no secret that in recent years, the U.S. created a buffer zone around Russia, involving in this process not only the countries of Central Europe, but also the Baltic states, Ukraine and the Caucasus. The only response to this could be an asymmetric expansion of the Russian military presence abroad, particularly in Cuba. In Cuba, there are convenient bays for our reconnaissance and warships, a network of the so-called "jump airfields." With the full consent of the Cuban leadership, on May 11 of this year, our country has not only resumed work in the electronic center of Lourdes, but also placed the latest mobile strategic nuclear missiles "Oak" on the island. They did not want to do it the amicable way, now let them deal with this," Putin said.

</>

http://english.pravda.ru/russia/politics/01-08-2012/121804-russia_army_base-0/

Cuban Missile Crisis II?  And, I’m sure this President wouldn’t want to do anything before the election….

—–

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

Well, that is one way to get our attention. I must be alone in believing that Mr. Putin has better motives than are usually imputed to him, given the needless insults the United States flings toward him and his people. I thin he believes himself a patriot, and a pan-slavist, and I do not think we take him seriously enough. The US and Russia have many common interests, although we do not seem to notice that. And what would constitute a legitimate government in Russia?

Islamists in North Mali Stone Couple to Death http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/31/world/africa/couple-stoned-to-death-by-islamists-in-mali.html

By ADAM NOSSITER

BAMAKO, Mali–Islamists in control of a town in northern Mali stoned a couple to death after accusing them of having children outside of marriage, a local official who was one of several hundred witnesses to the killings said Monday.

The official said the bearded Islamists, armed with Kalashnikov rifles, brought the couple into the center of the town of Aguelhok from about 12 miles away in the countryside. The young man and woman were forced into holes about four feet deep, with their heads protruding, and then stoned to death at about 5 a.m. Sunday, the official said.

"They put them into the holes, and then they started throwing big rocks, until they were dead," the official said, speaking by satellite phone from the remote desert town near the Algerian border.

"It was horrible," he said, noting that the woman had moaned and cried out and that her partner had yelled something indistinct during the attack. "It was inhuman. They killed them like they were animals."

The continuing joys of diversity. Perhaps Egypt will move toward this. Or Syria. Does anyone know?

Lights going out

We’ve already discussed this, but even the Washington Post is now noticing that the power grid is having trouble.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/trafficandcommuting/aging-power-grid-on-overload-as-us-demands-more-electricity/2012/08/01/gJQAB5LDQX_story.html

"The U.S. grid is aging and stretched to capacity. More often the victim of decrepitude than the forces of nature, it is beginning to falter. "

What is that line you are always quoting?

"We moved as the Spirit listed. They never altered their pace,
Being neither cloud nor wind-borne like the Gods of the Market Place,
But they always caught up with our progress, and presently word would come
That a tribe had been wiped off its icefield, or the lights had gone out in Rome."

Literal, in this case.

Respectfully,

Brian P.

And the gods of the copybook headings, with terror and slaughter return. When you sow the wind…

Speed kills! US Navy targets hypersonic, GPS-guided bullets — RT

http://rt.com/usa/news/navy-hypersonic-gps-bullets-701/

Remember the old cartoons where a bullet could chase you around a corner? What if that bullet was fired at 5,600 mph from an Electromagnetic Rail Gun? If the US Navy has its way, these sci-fi,supersonic GPS-guided projectiles could soon be a reality.

The futuristic munitions come as part of the US Office of Naval Research’s (ONR) Hyper Velocity Projectile program, which was announced on July 19. The agency’s researchers hope to develop equipment that would allow high-velocity weapons to accurately strike far-away targets – without having to depend on rocket propulsion, Military and Aerospace Electronics reports.

The Navy hopes the supersonic ammunition, with a potential “in-flight retargeting” capability, will be compatible with both its conventional guns, like the Mk 45 155-millimeter gun systems, as well as its experimental 20–32MJ railgun systems, which fire projectiles using electrical energy instead of chemical propellants.

The bullets are slated to be two feet long, weigh somewhere between 20 and 30 pounds, and have a range of 30 to even 200 miles depending on the system deploying them.

Significant in-flight retargeting of (more or less) ballistic ammo is a nice feature.

John

John Harlow

‘Homeland Security’ issuing YouTube takedown notices.

<http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20120720/02530219774/homeland-security-issuing-its-own-dmca-takedowns-youtube-to-stifle-speech.shtml>

Roland Dobbins

What an astonishment!

Muller not a skeptic?

Dear Dr. Pournelle,

I read with interest the link on your site which showed statements by

Dr. Muller which showed that he was not a skeptic. I have another source (sent by a liberal friend) which shows statements he has made recently which do indeed show skepticism.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/skeptic_Richard_Muller.htm

So if all the statements by the parties by your previous correspondent

and this one are correct, it appears that he has gone back and forth on the issue more than once.

Regardless, I do still agree that this adds nothing new to the debate

— the facts are as they are, and the conversion of one person to one side or another persuades no one who is not already amenable to Appeal to Authority.

Respectfully,

Brian P.

That’s the point. But I got so much mail on it that I thought it ought to be mentioned.

Jerry Pournelle

Chaos Manor

Elon Musk mentions that James Cameron has "Birth of Fire" in LA Times

Please don’t use my name if you publish this.

There is an interview with Elon Musk in the LA Times on August 1st, 2012 which says:

> The movies provide us with two space future models: "Star Trek," where a government agency governs space, versus "Alien," where a private space mining company makes its own rules.

>

> We need a new archetype. I’ve talked to James Cameron about this. He’s got a script for a realistic Mars mission because there’s not been a good Mars movie. That’s another thing that bugs me: The Mars movies have been so bad. I mean, honestly! And it’s going to be tricky getting funding for another Mars movie after"John Carter." It was a good comic book, and they totally screwed up the movie.

Mr. Cameron had intended Birth of Fire to be his next movie before he was persuaded that the technology existed to let him do Avatar. Perhaps he will consider it now. Needless to say, my Mars story has little in common with John Carter of Mars. Indeed, it remains quite consistent with what we know about Mars. And it takes place with technology we could build now if we wanted to. I believe the option he bought has expired but I would be glad to discuss renewal. He’d make a great movie of it.

NBC commentators

Jerry:

You write of "NBC commenters who made sure that no part of the ceremony was unaccompanied by mindless chatter".

Don’t you know commentators, journalists, and anyone even remotely connected with reporting are all the real stars of the show? The Olympics exist only to make TV journalists and commentators look good.

That’s why, for example, reporters are so irate when a Presidential candidate doesn’t give them the attention they deserve.

…………Karl Lembke

Mail 735 Monday, July 30, 2012

On Vitamins

I just discovered that the metformin I’m taking for insulin resistance depletes my supply of B12 and folic acid, and interferes with calcium! The calcium shouldn’t be an issue because I consume dairy products out the wazoo, but no WONDER the B complex has been helping!

-Stephanie

Folic Acid

The problem with folic acid is that the body does not use folic acid, it uses the l-methylfolate found in fresh food. Folic acid has to be converted to l-methylfolate before the body can use it, and the process of conversion can be reduced by several factors. Aging, the MTHFR gene defect, and low levels of the required B vitamins can all reduce the amount of folic acid that is converted.

This is bad because if you are not converting enough folic acid, not only do you suffer from low levels of l-methylfolate, you also suffer from the build up of folic acid.

Anyway, all of this is new science. I only know about it because it turned up in the raw data on my 23andMe genetic report. It is a very common defect. I have it, my husband has it, and 40% of the population has it. I have had very good results with switching to l-methlfolate. I strongly believe that it is the way to go.

cynthia allingham

As I have said, I know of one case in which folate deficiency in a young woman taking more than the government recommended amounts at the time she conceived had really severe effects on the child at birth. I have been unwilling to trust the government’s recommendations since that time (they have since been revised up, but the damage was very real and no apology was ever issued). Oops. But they’re from the government and their intentions were good.

Global Warming implies two things…

Jerry:

Interesting piece suggesting skepticism might be more appropriate than credulousness in re Global Warming. I’ve always thought that "Global Warming" should at least require two things: 1) Warming, and 2) Global effect.

Alas, here in Central Florida we are noticing a sustained cooling trend over the last 30 years (I lived here first in 1979). Where we used to be able to grow virtually anything without regard to "cold hardiness", we now find that winters routinely bring us occasional temperatures below freezing — even in the 20s! Fortunately, such temperatures don’t last long, but they do occur every year — and more than once — whereas decades ago a "hard freeze" (i.e., temps below 28) meant a "historic" cold winter.

In fact, the climate trend here can be encapsulated in a simple question: "How many commercial orange growers are there in "Orange" County, FL?" Answer: "NONE any more." That’s right — the county named after the fact that it was once virtually wall-to-wall orange groves now has none still in commercial production. The reason? Growers — who 30 years ago only had to resort to burning "pitch-pots" perhaps one night during a freak cold wave once every few years when the jet stream dipped unusually low and drove cold Canadian air into the area — slowly moved southward as the winters became more cold more often and it became impossible to keep fruit from freezing by any man-made means.

So how is it Global Warming if it is not warming globally?

Gary Cordelli

I still do not know how to take the temperature of Florida, much less compare it to a temperature of some years ago; but the need for smudge pots/acre for a year ought to be documented back quite a few years. I wonder if the climate people have looked at that.

Olympic trivia.

Dr. Pournelle,

I agree completely with your words about the execrable Olympic announcers. A rational television network covering the Olympics would leave the announcers at home–they add nothing and simply boost the taurocoprolite level. (The words based upon your new construction need to be in the Oxford English Dictionary–soonest! So should "congresscritter," which I find myself using with increasing frequency.)

At the opening, there was a boy soprano of remarkable skill singing "Jerusalem"–when he finished the solo and the choir began singing, the announcer (Meredith Viera, I believe) broke in with a discussion about the use of ‘culturally significant’ choirs. Might have been an interesting piece of trivia, but the timing was terrible.

This was infuriating for two reasons: I was listening to the choir, and her comments literally drowned them out; the other reason being the fact that "Jerusalem" is held in about the same esteem in Britain as "My Country, ‘Tis of thee" or "God Bless America" and no British announcer would have been so crass as to comment during a worldwide performance of those songs. There should be two audio channels–one for the actual event and the idiot announcers, one that’s full audio but has no verbal comments.

Give me an announcer-free Olympics. I can make my own ignorant comments and think my own trivial thoughts. And I know better than to yammer during "Jerusalem."

jomath

Hi Jerry

I just wanted to correct a couple of small errors that crept into your comments on the Olympics.

Firstly, no troops were brought back from overseas to man the Olympics – some did have leave cancelled though.

The parade of athletes was sped up because they have previously taken an age – not for ads – we don’t have them on the BBC. If you meant just on NBC then I beg your pardon.

On another point, Romney was rude when a guest – I don’t put up with that from guests and I guess you and Roberta don’t either.

Finally, I would like to log my admiration at the invention

(re-discovery?) of taurocoprophogeny – meretricious, if unworthy, of you.

Kind Regards

Kevin Crisp

My paper reported it as troops called back from the Afghan war; thanks for the correction. My paper also had a column by someone who watched the parade on BBC without commercials and was then horrified to see what NBC showed in the US.

We have to disagree about rudeness. Given what actually has happened so far, Mr. Romney was no more than truthful: stuff happens, and those in charge are often surprised. He carefully included himself among those not prepared for everything. I do not think it rude not to engage in fulsome praise. Perhaps it would have been better manners if Mr. Romney had simply dodged the question, but you may be sure he would then have been castigated for his cowardly behavior.

olympics coverage rant

Jerry,

For the second or third Olympics in a row, the tv coverage of the Olympics has been horrible. I’m not talking about event selection or schedule, I’m talking about technical details of recording video in one place and playing it back in another.

I was watching the coverage on NBC last night and it was absolutely terrible from a technical perspective. Every 3-5 minutes the video would cut out, back up or speed forward a few seconds, and re-start. Audio would un-sync from video. In three cases, they cut to commercial after a gymnastics performance but before the scores were given, and not cover the score, even briefly, after the commercials were over.

NBC paid millions for the right to be the exclusive channel outlet for Olympics coverage, and they can’t even get the basics correct. My elementary school news channel was run better by a couple of chatty 5th graders.

And of course my other rant is about the seating scandal…

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/olympics/london-2012/9434744/London-2012-Olympics-Empty-seats-on-the-opening-day-prompts-investigation.html

Hundreds (thousands?) of seats and tickets were given to media outlets and corporate sponsors, who failed to use them. So thousands of seats are going empty in some of the most popular and sold out events. I think the event organizers should immediately pass a new rule stating that if a corporate or media venue ticket goes unused, that organization loses their seat for the remainder of the Olympics and the seat tickets can be re-sold at the venue box-office. There are a few million people who would give a body part to be able to attend, so if the seats are empty the tickets should be forfeit, period.

Empty seats at the Olympics are a crime… This is a big deal to a lot of people and anyone who cares about it so little as to not use huge blocks of tickets while thousands wait outside should simply not be pandered to.

Sean

Quoth Richard Muller, noted skeptic of catastrophic anthropogenic climate change (nee ‘global warming’).

Hello Jerry,

In view of of your commentary today ("That seems an appropriate setting for thinking about global warming and the surprise defection of Muller from the ranks of the Deniers, accompanied by the cheers of his compadres at Berkeley."), I thought you may be interested in this. It is not from me, but from one of Dr. Judith Curry’s readers, ‘pokerguy’:

“pokerguy | July 29, 2012 at 7:18 am | Reply

Yay. Countdown to Anthony. First thing I thought of when I woke up this morning. I need therapy.

As to Muller’s NYT’s “Amazing Grace” piece (I once was blind but now I see), here’s a comment by poptech on Bishop Hill:

The Truth about Richard Muller

http://www.populartechnology.net/2012/06/truth-about-richard-muller.html <http://www.populartechnology.net/2012/06/truth-about-richard-muller.html>

“I was never a skeptic” – Richard Muller, 2011

“If Al Gore reaches more people and convinces the world that global warming is real, even if he does it through exaggeration and distortion – which he does, but he’s very effective at it – then let him fly any plane he wants.” – Richard Muller, 2008

“There is a consensus that global warming is real. …it’s going to get much, much worse.” – Richard Muller, 2006

“Let me be clear. My own reading of the literature and study of paleoclimate suggests strongly that carbon dioxide from burning of fossil fuels will prove to be the greatest pollutant of human history. It is likely to have severe and detrimental effects on global climate.” – Richard Muller, 2003″

As for the ‘Opening Ceremonies’, "You’re a better man than I am, Gunga Din." I would have watched them under the direct supervision of a SWAT team, IF they had a notarized court order authorizing them to use deadly force to ENSURE that I did. Maybe.

Bob Ludwick

Clearly many are better informed about Mr. Muller than I am. I don’t remember ever hearing of him before although I may actually have met him.

The Chick-Fil-A distraction

Dear Dr. Pournelle,

I think this guy hits the nail on the head.

http://legalinsurrection.com/2012/07/most-important-legacy-of-obamas-gay-marriage-switch-was-freeing-dems-to-play-the-bigot-card/#comments

It’s a distraction. The administration know it can’t run on it’s record so they’re playing the bigot card. Which they couldn’t do so long as President Obama still opposed gay marriage. Once he flipped, they were free to unleash vicious assaults —

— vicious assaults which have no teeth. They can’t withhold business licenses without violating the first amendment, and there’s no pending legislation on gay marriage either to sign or to veto. There’s almost been a truce in the culture war for four years as everyone’s been trying to get the economy back on track.

It appears the the administration has given up on that tack and figures they can win by throwing red meat to their base — red meat which has no effect save to rile up the rubes in the cheap seats, get them marching down to the polls and donating and volunteering. Certainly Obama’s donations recently haven’t been all they would hope for.

http://www.examiner.com/article/large-donations-for-obama-are-down

Since President Obama has lost his ability to charm, he now depends on demonizing Romney as much as he possibly can. Ironic that the President who ran on "Hope and Change" and on uniting different sections of the country is in fact running one of the most divisive campaigns I can remember. Maybe Johnson vs. Goldwater was this rough, but I’m hard pressed to think of any other democrat in living memory who waged social war with this level of vigor.

Respectfully,

Brian P.

I always thought it a distraction and I have paid little attention to it. I expect there are many CEO’s of companies I buy from who hold views I detest. There are others who say things I agree with. I am told that Henry Ford was an unpleasant man with some very regrettable views, but his cars were pretty good stuff.

‘RAND looked at 588 air-to-air shoot-downs since the 1950s and counted just 24 that occurred with the attacker firing from beyond visual range. Historically, American long-range air-to-air missiles have been 90-percent less effective than predicted, RAND asserted.’

<http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2012/07/f-22-germans/>

Roland Dobbins

We did operations studies like that when I was in the business, and I am not entirely surprised. Of course when we were doing those studies in the 1960’s there were fewer cases of shoot downs after WW II, and most of our data came from WW II and Korea.

Subject: City shuts down teen’s hot dog stand

Here’s a story when a thirteen year old young man took initiative to help his disabled parents, and the government couldn’t hardly wait to shut him down.

But…a business stepped and not only made it right, but better.

There’s a lesson for the big government advocates here somewhere….

http://www.hlntv.com/video/2012/07/27/city-shuts-down-teen-hot-dog-stand?hpt=hp_bn15

Tracy

Astonishing.

Education Without Schools

Jerry,

I have had personal experience with early "distance learning" technology. When I was in high school in the 70’s, I took a calculus class offered to seniors who had taken all other math classes offered in the school. The school did not have a teacher qualified to teach calculus, however, and the course was provided on open real video tape. The teacher assigned as our "advisor" was not interested in answering questions or clarifying points in the presentation and neither were the tapes — no matter how many times we rewound and re-played the tapes, they said the same thing in the same way! (Amazing, isn’t it?). To make a long story short, I was determined to learn calculus, so I started collecting calculus text books, looking for different explanations of the then obscure points in the video lectures. Eventually I had twelve books. The trick worked; I learned calculus and I explained to the rest of the class what I learned as I learned it.

Distance learning is not the same today as it once was. I have enrolled my son (whom you met at Liberty Con) in a home school curriculum for high school as I have lost all faith in the public school system. He will receive live lectures on his computer with question/answer sessions as well as the ability to review the lectures at will as recordings with supplemental material linked in. He will also have the benefit of live instruction from my wife and myself, both of college level education — she in the arts and myself in engineering and the sciences. I know he will receive four times the education that the public high school could provide and likely in half the time.

Kevin L. Keegan

Well of course it is not the same, just as I am not operating with a Z-80 and a screen that gives 24 lines of text and text only.

Kahn Academy has shown that introductory calculus can be taught by a computer lecture. I doubt yours was better than his.

And yes not everyone will get it from Kahn’s lecture just as not everyone got it from Calculus Made Easy; but should the entire middle class be saddled with lifelong debt because some don’t learn from on screen lectures?

The system has become monstrous, and I do not think it can be fixed. More, there will be more movements to force people to send their children to credentialed schools. The unions will never give up this income stream. The harm to the next generation is monstrous, but My God How The Money Rolls in.

Coursera seems to be trying to address increasing interaction during online learning. I learned about them reading an article in the paper about your alma mater joining there program.

coursera.org

I am sure they or someone like them are working on the accreditation anlge.

tonyb

PETA takes ‘bets’ on when senator will die after objection to USDA vegetarian push

Both this and the Chick-Fil-A issue show just how much the liberals venom and hate they can generate against anyone they disagree with, even over a small matter. The odd thing is that they don’t even notice the hypocrisy of it, despite all their claims of being intellectuals.

People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals has started taking "bets" on its website over when Sen. Charles Grassley will die, after the Iowa Republican scolded the Department of Agriculture for advocating a vegetarian diet.

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/07/27/peta-takes-bets-on-when-senator-will-die-after-objection-to-usda-vegetarian/?test=latestnews#ixzz21qOXTAu4 <http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/07/27/peta-takes-bets-on-when-senator-will-die-after-objection-to-usda-vegetarian/?test=latestnews#ixzz21qOXTAu4>

Education Credentials

Dear Jerry,

>>We need a way to provide credentials to the qualified and otherwise get out of the way.<<

The primary reason a Credential is even wanted is to satisfy archaic state occupational licensing laws and regulations. This is where the Government-Education Complex enforces its monopoly. Part of the licensing requirement is invariably displaying a Credential from an "accredited" learning institution. The theory is that possession of this Credential is evidence of minimal competency in the referenced subject matter for engineers, lawyers and barbers. Sometimes this theory intersects reality.

This political field of licensing is where change needs to be focused. If Mike Johns and others feel the need for a high cost traditional college education they should certainly be able to get (and pay) for it. But that does not justify inflicting the extremely high costs of the educational cartel on others who do not need their services, or for depriving yet others of opportunity simply because they don’t have a certain quantity of Federal Reserve currency to hand over to accredited rent-seekers.

The short solution is provide fee-based subject matter testing and open these tests to all comers. The current College Board CLEP test structure shows what reasonable test fees are.

Professional bodies are playing an obstructive role. ABET for instance http://www.abet.org/ is the cartel enforcer for "applied science, computing, engineering, and technology programs". Its principle power derives from the fact that state occupational licensing boards typically require an ABET accredited degree or evaluated equivalent to even apply for engineering and other technology occupation licensing.

The various engineering specialties are excellent candidates for standardized bar exam style processes. My own expectation is this would turn into a Warren Buffet type low tide swimming event whereby we discover who is skinny dipping. In other words, numerous expensive "accredited" schools would be discovered to be accrediting graduates with deficient knowledge in their nominal degree fields.

And speaking of bar exams, the bar exams and law licenses should also be RE-opened to anyone willing to pay the licensing fees and able to pass the tests. Is there any reason Law shouldn’t revive a master-apprentice style of training? That is, any reason other than the desire of the Harvard and Yale law school faculties to collect high salaries and wield unchecked ideological power? I have heard that even Yale Law School grads like Hillary Rodham Clinton have needed two or three swings to pass their bar exams.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_life_and_career_of_Abraham_Lincoln#Politics_and_the_law

"In March 1836 Lincoln took the first step to becoming a practicing attorney when he applied to the clerk of the Sangamon County Court to have himself registered as a man of good and moral character. After passing an oral examination by a panel of practicing attorneys Lincoln received his law license on September 9, 1836 and in April 1837 he was enrolled to practice before the Supreme Court of Illinois."

Missing from this account is any mention that Lincoln ever attended an "accredited law school", let alone received a J.D. or Ll.d.

Best Wishes,

Mark

One reason for credentials is to avoid lawsuits under affirmative action and Americans with Disabilities Act and other egalitarian regulations and laws. Insisting on credentials gets the personnel manager off the hook for a number of cases. Of course it also make their job much harder.

Repeal a lot of the ‘discrimination’ regulations and you will see in general more people hired on the basis of ability and fewer on credentials. Or that’s my opinion.

Vitamins and other stuff

Jerry,

For what it’s worth, here’s my two cents on the vitamin issue. Note that much of this depends on conversations (from the mid-1990s) with the late Mike Lalor, and on some conversations with my current physician.

Pursuant to bone spurs, I have taken 400 – 800 IU of ergocalciferol (Vitamin D-2, described as the water soluble vitamin of the D-complex) as protection against bone spurs. Anecdotally I can report that pain medically diagnosed as a bone spur (which would require surgical intervention in the form of "scraping the bone") goes away when I take at least 400 IU daily and returns if I miss doses for something less than a week. However, this dosage has NOT been adequate in maintaining my serum level of Vitamin D as measured by blood testing, and the doctor has placed me on additional supplements of Vitamin D-3.

On Lalor’s advice I started the following regimen for varicose veins, which I have been plagued with for most of my adult life:

Vitamin C, 1000 – 2000 mg daily, primarily as an anti-coagulant Vitamin E, 400 – 800 IU daily in the form of "natural mixed tocopherol" (NOT the alpha-tocopherol of most Vitamin E supplements) as an anti-oxidant and natural lubricant of the cardiovascular system.

Niacin , 100 – 200 mg daily, as a vasodilator. For this to work, one cannot use the no-flush variety, but one adapts.

The supplements biorutin (500 – 1000 mg daily) and butcher’s broom (1-2 standard tablets) today, which together supposedly provide fuel to stimulate rebuilding the cardiovascular system.

I can report that my veins got worse when I ignored this regimen for a year or so, and that after restarting it at the higher dose, not only do I have fewer instances of leg pain, but the doctor has observed some signs of minor improvement in vein surface visibility (in connection with use of prescription Joust support hose, which costs a lot more than the vitamins do). Vein pain seems to recur consistently if I miss two-three doses in a five-day period.

I also take occasional doses of L-carnitine, which enhances fat metabolism (including, supposedly, the disintegration of plaque deposits in the circulatory system — Lalor reported that megadoses can actually cause the breakup of such deposits in life-threatening form. Whether due to this and the varicose vein regimen or not, I can report that as of my last stress test and test for blockages about four years ago, I had no evidence of same despite my… er, overweight condition (which you noted at Libertycon). I am presently taking one 250-mg tablet per week.

Finally, I take a "balanced B-100" (or two balanced b-50) tablets per day for general energy.

(I’ll also note, however, that I’m on two blood pressure medications and two oral diabetic medications, among other prescriptions for other problems.)

That said, I approach other supplements very carefully after attempting glucosamine- chondroitin in the mid 1990’s. The recommended regimen was five tablets per day; I started at 1 tablet per day and after three days was in severe pain. I chose to drop it completely rather than restarting at the higher dose for obvious reasons.

As always, your mileage may vary. I can only report my anecdotal experience.

Jim

I do not currently take glucosamine-condroitin, but I have done so; I didn’t notice much effect one way or another. I do take a B-100 tablet, generally daily, along with my other witch’s brew.

Jerry,

From time to time you mention actions by the federal government that make it especially difficult for companies like Gibson Guitar to stay in business, and draconian punishments for pet rabbit breeders who sell 600 rabbits instead of the 500 that they are allowed. I understand that the penalty for this particular infraction is a fine of $100,000 rising to $2,000,000 if the fine is not paid promptly. All without the scrutiny of the courts. In the larger scheme of things this is not important. Perfectly good guitars can be imported from China, and no one will really suffer if they are unable to to obtain a pet rabbit. More serious, if true, is the jail sentence of eight years imposed for the crime of importing lobster tails from Honduras in plastic boxes as opposed to cardboard boxes as mandated by the Honduras Government. Again, this is horrific for the imprisoned importer, but not significant in the greater scheme of things.

What is nationally vital is the deterrent effect that these examples have on would be entrepreneurs. There are many reasons for someone who thinks he sees a gap in the market that he can fill to not do so. For the government to add further reasons is not rational, indeed it is clinically insane. The USA has an annual budget deficit of about $15 trillion and unfunded liabilities, eg. pension liabilities, currently estimated at $119 trillion. If these prodigious debts are ever to be repaid, innovators are needed as never before.

Your correspondent’s father rather unwisely toured France and Germany in 1939 in a Fiat 500* car, quite large enough for himself and his pregnant wife. He ended up driving flat out for Calais accompanied by three Brits that he met on the way. For his own part your correspondent would love to visit the USA and spend two or three months just driving about. Starting in New York and ending in Los Angeles before flying the Pacific to see Australasia. The current atmosphere of fascism in the USA has altered his plans. The USA has convinced him that it is a place avoided by the prudent. This is sad to the point of disgust. How did the World’s exemplar of freedom fall, so far, so quickly?

John Edwards.

* The Fiat 500 was large enough for two adults. It also had reasonable space in the back for two legless dwarves who were inured to suffering. How papa fitted three extra adults in the car is a mystery. Possibly the prospect of being a guest of Herr Hitler helped.

We are from the government and we are here to help you.

“It’s practically possible for a medium-technical savvy person to mount an attack and impersonate a plane that’s not there.”

<http://www.forbes.com/sites/andygreenberg/2012/07/25/next-gen-air-traffic-control-vulnerable-to-hackers-spoofing-planes-out-of-thin-air/>

Roland Dobbins

Neanderthal-type species once roamed Africa, DNA shows,

Jerry

Neanderthal-type species once roamed Africa and interbred with Africans 20-50K ya, after a number of our ancestors had already left and begun to colonize Asia and Europe:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/early-africans-mated-with-mystery-species-of-humans/2012/07/26/gJQAxFzZBX_story.html

“How do you risch?”

Ed

Rishithra—

This is a suprise; audits of the Federal Reserve are supposed to occur annually, but this has not happened since Eisenhower was president.  Every year, Ron Paul introduces certain bills with the purposes of doing what the Consitution and U.S. laws already require and nobody ever votes for these bills.  Auditing the Federal Reserve is one of those bills.  This year, the audit passed!

<.>

In a move that serves as a capstone to Rep. Ron Paul’s colorful career, the House on Wednesday voted to have Congress‘ chief investigators conduct a full audit of the Federal Reserve’s shrouded decision-making process.

The overwhelming 327-98 vote sends the measure to the Senate, where Majority Leader Harry Reid, Nevada Democrat, at one time expressed support for an audit — though he reportedly has changed his mind.

</>

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/jul/25/house-passes-ron-pauls-audit-fed-bill/

What is not surprising is the lack of Senate support for this audit.  After all, it’s easier to buy a majority among 100 politicians than it is to buy a majority among 435 politicians. 

More interesting; not suprisng if you keep up on these matters:

<.>

Fed officials have long fought the audit bill, arguing it would compromise their independence. Chairman Ben Bernanke told House lawmakers last week it would open the door to a "nightmare scenario" of political meddling in monetary policy decisions.

</>

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/25/us-usa-fed-audit-idUSBRE86O1IX20120725

Why is that Mister Chairman?  What are you doing at the Federal Reserve that you don’t want the people to see?  And, a nightmare for whom, exactly?  Would it be a nightmare for you, past chairmen, past treasurers — to name a few? 

—–

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

Mail 734 Thursday, July 26, 2012

On vitamins.

Everyone should understand. I don’t recommend much. I can only describe what I have concluded is worth doing for myself. I take some massive overdoses of some vitamins and radical shields, and some other strange stuff. That may not work for anyone. It may not even be working for me, although I have introspective reasons to believe that it is. I am quite sure that some of what I take makes expensive urine, and some helps my physiology, and I can’t determine which does what.

Vitamin D and multivitamins

Hi Jerry,

Like you, I used to think that I ought to take a multivitamin, since my diet certainly isn’t perfect. But it turns out there’s no evidence that they actually do any good, and some evidence of harm. Vitamin D, on the other hand, is virtually all upside, with very little risk of overdose until you get up into the multiple tens of thousands of IUs.

Here’s a good explanation from one expert whom I trust for health information:

http://chriskresser.com/throw-away-your-multivitamins-and-antioxidants

—

Anthony DiSante

I have different conclusions.

Re. Glendale Dentists, Aspirin, and Folic Acid:

I agree completely about folate, with the proviso that large doses should be accompanied by making sure that you’re not short of vitamin B12. Folate can cover up the haematological signs of B12 deficiency, but doesn’t help the other consequences (such as irreversible nerve damage) of severe lack of B12. Unfortunately, people over maybe 60 are much more likely to have B12 deficiency problems, because B12 absorption is dependent on adequate stomach acid – increasingly unlikely as one gets older.

Aspirin has been proved to lessen the risk of abnormal blood clotting but also to increase the risk of ulcers, which may ultimately bleed and may lead to complications such as peritonitis. AFAIK fish oils have the same anti-clotting effect but no effect on the stomach, so you can probably get the same anti-clotting results with less side effects by regularly eating mackerel or salmon. These oils also benefit the function of the nervous system, including the brain.

Plant pigments collectively known as oligomeric proanthocyanidins (try saying that after a few beers!) also have anti-clotting and antioxidant effects – and are found in quite a few common foods such as red wine and beetroot, along with all the black or purple berries.

It all comes down to the same old story – eating the diet people are evolved for is better for us. No surprises there, although the agribusiness and junk food industries wouldn’t want you to know it – which is probably why the authorities come down HARD on anyone making health claims for supplements and the "paleo" diet.

Also, although once again business (this time a different one, the pharma cartel) wouldn’t want us to think about it: there is no such thing as a deficiency in aspirin, statin drugs or Zocor. If a drug has long-term benefits, there is almost certainly some diet or lifestyle change with the same benefits and without the downsides.

Sorry about the long reply – it’s one of my hobbyhorses and one out of which I used to make a living. Until the banks put paid to that, but that’s the subject of another post perhaps.

Regards,

Ian Campbell

Until the Glendale dentists there were no formal studies. Now we have a better understanding. And I make no doubt that lifestyle changes can substitute for drugs, but that may not be the most cost effective use of ones time and energies and habit formations. And some people benefit from regimes that would kill others.

Of course the drug industry wants to sell drugs, as the corn industry wants to sell corn, and the science fiction publishing industry wants to sell science fiction.

I am not sure what you mean by aspirin deficiency. Evolution has pretty well designed us to have the good grace to die when our children reach child bearing age, so that we make room for them; the alternative is that every advance in food production is used up by making more people, and while the standard of living for a few can go up, most will live at subsistance level. Indeed for tens of thousands of years until about 1840 that is how humanity lived: 90% of humans lived at a subsistance level. A few lived much better of course, but most lived at the edge and if resources increased that did not appear as a higher standard of living, but as more people. The Black Death raised wages for everyone, and the effect was temporary. The Industrial Revolution changed living standards, although it is not entirely certain that this change is permanent, and it is certainly distributed unevenly.

There is no aspirin deficiency, but then people my age used to be rare, and people my age writing a lot were even more so.

But we are now living much longer than we used to. There are far more older people now than ever before. We have not evolved for long life.

Big Government, Income Inequality, & Economic Mobility

Jerry,

First, I would like to tell you one last time how much I enjoyed the opportunity to meet you and speak with you and Larry Niven at Liberty Con. I have received many years of intellectual pleasure from the two of you, separately and together, and I will prize the chance to tell you in person for the rest of my life.

On the subject at hand, I ran across a succinct article (http://money.msn.com/personal-finance/what-no-ones-telling-us-workers-usnews.aspx) about the issue of income inequality. It addresses some fundemental truths in coping with the income gap; it is up to the individual to fix it, not the government. However, it does not address a proper role for government in the issue: identify and eliminate all laws and regulations that impede economic upward mobility (e.g. the so-called "progressive" income tax rates).

Kevin L. Keegan

I have never supposed that much progress is possible without government. Sarah Hoyt shows the best developed kind of very libertarian society I know of, but it too is unstable. Possibly everything is, but the United States, these United States as we used to be known, did manage to combine liberty with order for a long time. Pity we decided to substitute national bureaucracy for ordered liberty, and national entitlements for what de Tocqueville called ‘the associations.’ But then nothing is forever.

NSA Octopus

This article does an excellent job of disecting the NSA surveillance octopus.  This is worse than Nazi Germany; clearly we live in the Fourth Reich.  You can equivocate, excuse, or attempt to justify as I’m sure all those good Nazi citizens did, but the fact remains that this country is not what it is supposed to be and this government no longer cares to follow the laws the created nor does it care to respect the freedoms granted to us.  I suppose I can do little other than complain to people who either (1) won’t listen or (2) will echo my complaints.  Back when we might have changed things, I was considered "crazy".  Now my friends and family admit that I was right, but it’s no comfort.  Yeah, so I knew what I was talking about; so what?  I was never trying to be a prophet of doom; I was trying to turn things around and now I wonder if that will ever be possible.  Then again, I suppose the Nazi regime changed.  I hope our shift is less violent and less humiliating. 

http://techpp.com/2012/07/24/nsa-surveillance-algorithms-see-into-your-life/

People who think that Nazi analogy is "over the top" or "overused" obviously have no idea about what has been going on in this country and they obviously have no idea how Nazi Germany worked.  While we are not talking carbon copies here and we don’t have a firey speaker hailing from a beer hall in Munich, we have many striking similarities.  The process has been refined and it has a more sophisticated approach, but it is shaping up to be the same tyranny.  Wait and see; that seems to be all most people are good for denying, waiting, and finally admitting — but then, of course, it’s too late. 

—–

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

As I suspected:

<.>

This is a shocking video confirming, by former NSA employees, what many of us probably suspected about the National Security Agency.

NSA whistle blowers Thomas Drake, former senior official; Kirk Wiebe, former senior analyst; and William Binney, former technical director, return to “Viewpoint” to talk about their allegations that the NSA has conducted illegal domestic surveillance. All three men are providing evidence in a lawsuit by the Electronic Frontier Foundation against the NSA.

Drake says the spying affects “the entire country,” citing a “key decision made shortly after 9/11 which began to rapidly turn the United States of America into the equivalent of a foreign nation for dragnet blanket electronic surveillance.”

“It’s hard to believe that your government’s gonna actually do it,” Wiebe says. “That was the shocker.”

Binney mentions a new NSA facility under construction in Bluffdale, Utah: “That facility alone can probably hold somewhere close to a hundred years worth of the communications of the world.” Binney continues, “Once you accumulate that kind of data – they’re accumulating against everybody – [it’s] resident in programs that can pull it together in timelines and things like that and let them see into your life.”

It is also noteworthy that this interview was conducted by the very aggressive former-New York state Governor Eliot Spitzer, who was brought down in a call girl scandal, where unknown government surveillance techniques were used against him. Welcome to the fight Eliot.

</>

http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2012/07/nsa-whistle-blowers-warn-that-us.html

—–

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

Colorado shootings…

http://lewrockwell.com/adams-m/adams-m22.1.html

Why did no one fight back?

"…Aurora, Colorado already has strict gun control laws on the books that make it:

* Illegal to carry a concealed weapon, even if you’re a law-abiding citizen.

* Illegal to discharge a firearm in public unless you are a peace officer.

Thus, any person who would have shot James Holmes and stopped the massacre would, themselves, have been arrested as a criminal!"

Charles Brumbelow

I have mine. Do you?

Gasmasks in demand as Israel tracks Syria chemical arms

John

RE: I have mine. Do you?

Most commonly available gas masks will be of no use against most war gasses.

Terrorists are not likely to use mustard or phosgene or chlorine. But yes, it’s wise to be prepared for an idiot attack since it’s easy to make mustard.

Jerry Pournelle

Chaos Manor

Jerry,

I attended the two week NBC officers course. A mask is all you need if you stay in your home or apartment as these are low dose environments. Many items are available on the net, such as"

http://www.cheaperthandirt.com/ItemListing.aspx?catid=6201

John from Waterford

It all depends on what you are preparing for. Having a gas mask can be useful, and we can hope that we never encounter modern nerve agents. Or that a home grown terrorist doesn’t do a lot of research.

. Fact check Obama and the VA

http://news.yahoo.com/fact-check-disability-claims-still-growing-va-065134004.html

OBAMA: "We’ve hired thousands of claims processors. We’re investing in paperless systems. To their credit, the dedicated folks at the VA are now completing 1 million claims a year, but there’s been a tidal wave of new claims."

THE FACTS: Veterans can be eligible for help with conditions caused or aggravated by their military service. The government, however, has long struggled to keep up with the claims, and the backlog has grown worse during the president’s term in office as soldiers return from Iraq and Afghanistan.

In May 2009, about 135,000 claims for disability benefits had been pending for more than 125 days, representing about one-third of all pending claims. Today, that number has more than quadrupled, to 558,000 claims — about two-thirds of all those pending.

As Obama emphasized, the Veterans Affairs Department has processed more claims than ever in the past two years. In 2010, the VA completed a million claims but received about 1.2 million new ones. In 2011, the department again processed more than 1 million claims, but about 1.3 million new claims came in.

The department’s independent inspector general has said the VA made the problem worse by not assigning enough staff to process appeals and not following its own guidelines in processing older claims.

For example, when investigators reviewed the claims processed at three offices in California, they found that division managers did not conduct monthly reviews of those claims pending for more than a year — a violation of policy that led to unnecessary delays.

In recent congressional hearings, lawmakers from both parties have voiced frustration with the VA’s inability to cut into the backlog despite the additional resources allotted to the task. Obama noted that the VA has redeployed 1,200 claims experts to target and tackle the most complex claims in the backlog. It’s also moving to a paperless system.

___

OBAMA: "We’ve also focused on the urgent needs of our veterans with PTSD. We’ve poured tremendous resources into this fight."

THE FACTS: Obama correctly noted that the administration has increased its investment in helping veterans deal with the mental wounds of war, particularly post-traumatic stress disorder. Staffing for counselors, psychologists and mental health workers is up 45 percent since 2005, with the department recently announcing that about 1,900 more mental health workers were being added to the fold.

But there too investigators found that the VA routinely did not follow its own guidelines in treating patients seeking mental health treatment. The department had claimed that 95 percent of new patients seeking mental health treatment got a full evaluation within the department’s goal of 14 days. But the independent investigators found performance was far worse; nearly half of the veterans seeking mental health care for the first time waited about 50 days before getting a full evaluation.

Investigators explained the conflicting numbers by stating that the VA did not have a reliable and accurate method of determining whether patients were getting timely access to mental health care. They said the VA’s measure "had no real value."

Obama called it an outrage when he hears about service members and veterans who died waiting for help. "We’ve got to do better," he said. "This has to be all hands on deck."

The shootings in Colorado

Jerry:

Sandra and I live in Parker, which butts up against Aurora’s southern end. Our youngest daughter, Emily, lives in Aurora, just a few miles from the complex in question and, like me, is an avid movie-goer.

Needless to say, I have pretty strong feelings about this incident, which I wrote about at Ace of Spades (where I guest-blog occasionally as ‘Fritzworth’, an old high-school nickname). Here are my two posts — the first written in an airport while still waiting to hear back from Emily to know whether or not she was ok (you’ll see I pretty much agree with you and Larry on the desired consequences, though I go perhaps a bit farther); the second, on the mental state of the killer himself:

http://ace.mu.nu/archives/331186.php

http://ace.mu.nu/archives/331202.php

Safe travels back home, and hugs to Roberta; Sandra sends her best.

..bruce..

Worth looking up for those interested.

Education Without Schools

Jerry you write: One of the things I pointed out in the education panel this morning is that it is no thoroughly possible to get a very good education without going to the schools, and without incurring a life long crippling debt by taking out huge student loansk which mostly serve to drive up the price of education

Sites like the Khan Academy and shows like PBS’ The Mechanical Universe suggest that the technology is available, but are all of the pieces really in place? One feature of my undergraduate education was recitation sessions in which the class was split into smaller groups which met separately with a teaching assistant who answered questions, graded the homework, and worked through examples, and went over common mistakes on the exam questions. I’m not convinced that one is really getting the same benefit out of the course without feedback from a live person.

I did once take a distance learning class during the summer, and the video lectures were actually a repeat of lectures given during the previous spring semester. I don’t even know if the professor was on campus that summer. I do know that one of his graduate students was available to answer questions and grade homework. Access to that live human can be important, not just in terms of grading papers and exams so that you can receive a credential but also in terms of the learning experience itself.

Perhaps it is possible to create an educational system where the lecturers invest a great deal of energy into creating really good lectures which are consumed by a large number of people and might even be reused for a few years before they are updated. That part could be fairly inexpensive amortized over a large number of students. I’m thinking here of the PBS show The Mechanical Universe with its animated derivations, which is now well over 20 years old. It is still important for the student to have access to a knowledgeable and capable mentor whose student load is small enough to enable him to provide assistance as needed. This role is even more important than in a traditional classroom setting, because if the lectures are recorded, or given live to thousands of people at once, the students are effectively unable to ask the lecturer questions.

Also there is no guarantee that schools partition what they think you should know into the same set of courses. If we want to make it possible for students in such programs to be credentialed by examination, one needs to ask who writes the questions, gives the exams, and decides what material is fair game for examination.

Students also learn from one another, and that may not be so easy to reproduce in a distance learning environment.

Good distance learning technology is an important first step, but there are others beyond.

Mike Johns

Do you get from modern universities enough to justify being in heavy debt for most of your life?

For some perhaps it is so.

Jerry Pournelle

Chaos Manor

Jerry,

 

I don’t think we essentially disagree. As the cost of education increases, it becomes increasingly difficult to justify the cost for people who see higher education as career preparation, which is pretty much most people with a college education.

On the other hand, so long as employers consider a four year degree an absolute necessity to even be considered for some positions, it may be worth the price even if the student gains no benefit at all from the actual instruction. Presumably at some point the price will climb too high, or the employers will get fed up with the quality of graduates and the bubble will burst.

My email was meant to suggest that if we aim to replace universities with distance learning, that there is more to be replaced than a one way broadcast of course materials. Things like recitation, TAs, and feedback via graded homework can be important. That is hardly a reason to give up on distance learning. I think we can add these elements to distance learning. What would it actually cost to hire a grad-student to be an online TA for a 20 person recitation section if it wasn’t part of a university’s expensive package deal? Lab courses would be trickier.

Mike Johns

As government injects more money into the ‘professional education’ establishments, the price of the credential will rise as the quality of education deteriorates. More and more unqualified people will be recruited because if there is more money to be made the administrators will find ways to make it.

We need a way to provide credentials to the qualified and otherwise get out of the way. Government can decree that every child is entitled to a world class university prep education, and to a world class university education, but it cannot provide those. I can spend us broke trying and make a lot of credential vendors very wealthy indeed.

China Reveals Hand in ASEAN

Most in the West would not see this as a big deal; having lived in Northeast and Southeast Asia for most of my adult life, I know better.  I will get to the meaning of this — as I see it — after the snip. 

<.>

For the first time in its 45-year history, ASEAN’s foreign ministers failed to issue a joint communiqué following their annual consultations last week in Phnom Penh. It is important to understand this high profile failure. What happened? And what does it mean for ASEAN and for the strategies of the United States and other countries with strong interests in the Asia Pacific?

<…>

China has revealed its hand as an outlier on the question of ASEAN unity. It seemingly used its growing economic power to press Cambodia into the awkward position of standing up to its ASEAN neighbors on one of the most important security concerns for the grouping and its members. China’s overt role, underlined by leaks about Cambodia’s complicity in sharing drafts, seems to suggest Beijing’s hand in promoting ASEAN disunity. Thus the most important message coming from Phnom Penh is not the intramural ASEAN spat over the joint statement but, rather, that China has decided that a weak and splintered ASEAN is in its best interests.

</>

http://csis.org/publication/china-reveals-its-hand-asean-phnom-penh

Of course a weak and splinter ASEAN is in China’s interests.  I would have thought hat China would work through Myanmar on this, but Cambodia is also a logical choice and it should make Thailand and Vietnam feel a little more uncomfortable.  Thailand has a Chinese population, which is wealthier than most other Thais, they have Myanmar and now Cambodia in China’s pocket.  Vietnam is warming up to the United States; Thailand is a long-standing client state of the United States.  Without consensus at ASEAN, it will be impossible for South East Asian nations to form a comprehensive defense policy and it will not be possible for ASEAN to speak with one voice against Chinese aggression in the region. 

Events in Thailand will get more dubious as the ruling monarch ages and Thaksin Shinawart continues to press his agenda on Thailand.  Thaksin is one of those Chinese Thais I spoke of earlier.  If his power grows, Thailand could get much more interesting.  Laos and Vietnam — back in 2001 — were very close.  Some said that Vietnam basically ran Laos, but I am not sure how accurate this is.  I know Vietnam had great influence there and probably still does.  In any case, we have two nations in China’s pocket in ASEAN.  Alone, I don’t see how any of the ASEAN nations could possibly stand up to China — even together they would have a difficult road ahead without U.S. support. 

This divide an conquer strategy on China’s part seems brilliant.  They’ve made sure the Chinese navy can continue to press advantages over maritime claims disputes within the region and they would not have to worry about ASEAN — and possibly APEC — taking a stand against the aggression.  Meanwhile, China will plod on.

—–

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

Mail 734 Sunday, July 22, 2012

Democracy Is A Terrible Form Of Government – After Action Report?

Mr. Pournelle,

First, the obligatory (though heart-felt and most definitely sincere) chit-chat about reading you since the early 80’s, still interested in your work, can’t wait to read your next blog, etc, etc.

I followed the events at Libertycon as closely as a man on a family camping trip with no 3G signal can, which is to say not well at all. I was hoping to see some summaries or post-mortems on some of the panels I would have liked to have attended, had I not been on said camping trip. Concerning the "Democracy/Terrible" panel, will there be any sort of video/audio/text of how it went down? I’m extremely interested in what the panel had to say on the topic as it dovetails exactly with a good deal of my research on what it would take, philosophically/culturally/politically, to take our current society from what we have to a popular and effective monarchy.

Keep up the great work.

Scott McGlasson

I fear I wasn’t able to make notes at the panel, and my memory isn’t up to reproducing it. The formal panel title had the question, doesn’t science fiction tell us something better. We all of us answered ‘No’, which might have left us with little to talk about, but of course we found plenty. I pointed out that the Convention of 1787 might accurately be labeled a conspiracy to suppress democracy; that was certainly the goal of many of its members. Making the world safe for life, liberty, and property, even against the vote of a majority, was a major goal. The Constitution was intended to make the federal government just strong enough to survive and protect the nation against foreign powers, but not to interfere in the lives of most of the citizens; and the final sovereignty was reserved to the states and to the people, and in case that wasn’t obvious from the limited grants of power in the document itself, it was made part of the Bill of Rights.

Really, though, it’s not possible to summarize an hour of question and answer exchanges, from that panel or from the one on education this morning. And of course no one is going to answer the fundamental questions in an hour anyway. The people who attended seemed to think it was worth their time, and that’s about the best I can do. Thanks for the kind words.

Sacred Cows

Regarding alternatives to relativity:

It is a well-known conclusion in logic that scientific theories are underdetermined. That is, through any finite set of facts one may draw multiple theories to explain them. Facts are like the stars in the sky; theories are like the constellations we imagine to navigate our way through them. Hence the multiple quantum theories to explain quantum mechanics: Copenhagen, multiple-worlds, Bohm’s standing wave, Cramer’s transactional theory, et al. It is why the "crucial experiment" is impossible. If theory A predicts consequence Z, verifying Z does not prove A, the fallacy of asserting the consequent; and while verifying not-Z may (or may not) falsify A, it certainly does not validate B. There may be other alternatives to A. There is no Pr(Z), there is only Pr(Z|A), Pr(Z|B), Pr(Z|C), etc. We can only say that an observation Z is improbable given a model A.

The classic example was the Copernican v. the Tychonic model of the world. Both made the same predictions about the empirical facts — stellar positions, eclipses, sunrise/set, phases of Venus, etc. They were computationally equivalent. The Tychonic/Ursine model was better in some regards, such as the orbit of Mars. The Keplerian model was better than both in being mathematically simpler and dispensing with Copernicus’ epicycles. But heliocentrism became regarded as true-to-life mainly because assuming the Newtonian model of universal gravitation the observations made better sense.

MikeF

Thank you for the succinct summary.

Online Physics Lectures

Dr Pournelle, once again, I have come across some interesting material on the web, for your on-line lecture collection, Milton Friedland does 10 tv shows:

http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/archives/020820.html#more

I was lucky enough to come across this collection of tv shows from 30 years ago with economist and libertarian Milton Friedman hosting. 10 parts – 10 hours. I believe they were originally aired (believe it or not) on PBS. What makes it truly interesting is the formatting, where one half of each show is devoted to practical and historical examples of theory while the the other half is a moderated discussion with reps from government, academia, and business. It is something to see Thomas Sowell, Frances Fox Piven, and Donald Rumsfeld commenting from way back then. Could be yesterday.

I didn’t realize how much I miss Milton Friedman until I went through this series. Apparently, 2012 is the 100th anniversary of his birth.

I hope these links are new and prove useful and entertaining for you and your readers.

Free To Choose 1980 Vol. 1 – The Power of the Market <http://vimeo.com/26727003> …"

One of the things I pointed out in the education panel this morning is that it is no thoroughly possible to get a very good education without going to the schools, and without incurring a life long crippling debt by taking out huge student loans which mostly serve to drive up the price of education – that is, as usual in economic systems, if you put more money into some institution it will absorb the money and the prices will rise. Make student loans easier to get, adding more money, and higher education prices will rise to absorb all that money. You can only escape by going on line and getting an education without paying the exorbitant fees now demanded. Not only home schooling for grammar and high school, but much of so-called higher education including much of what is considered university level. We still have no way to giving credentials to those who learned outside the hideously overpriced monsters we have created, but I think the American people may find a way. Or perhaps it is only a science fiction idea.

And in a lighter vein

So papa, how did you like the iPad we got you?

ROFL, LMAO

Subject: next birthday

http://www.snotr.com/video/8965/

I got this long ago and it got lost in the shuffle; it is still relevant.

Wisconsin election

Hi Jerry,

I have lived here in the People’s Republic of Madison for 13 years and sometimes have to get out of town just to retain my sanity.

Regarding the email you received about 119% turnout. I suspect the author was either being sarcastic or was referring to the fact that turnout in this election, along with Walker’s victory margin, exceeded that from the 2010 Fall gubernatorial election.

A lesser known reform from last year was passage of a Voter ID requirement for elections. That is currently suspended by order of David Flanagan, a Dane County (Madison) circuit court judge who signed the petition to recall Governor Walker. The case is currently on appeal and one hopes it will be overturned before the general election in November.

There were also 4 Republican Wisconsin state senators under recall on Tuesday. 3 of them won by large margins and the fourth apparently lost by about 800 votes. There were reports of buses full of union members from Detroit and Chicago traveling to Wisconsin on Tuesday to same-day register and vote. The defeated senator’s district is just north of the Illinois state line from Chicago so it’s conceivable that this may have turned the tide.

Thanks for your keen insights!

Wayne

A word to the wise and all that….