Climate, and a few other matters

Mail 742 Saturday, September 22, 2012

I have a great deal of mail, but it is late and this short list will have to do.

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Polar sea ice could set ANOTHER record this year

Jerry

As the arctic icecap shrinks, the Antarctic icecap grows:

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/09/21/arctic_antarctic_sea_ice_record/print.html

You’d think it was homeostasis or something.

Ed

Be of good cheer. Even if it is hot outside…

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New E-Book: Who Turned on the Heat? The Unsuspected Global Warming Culprit — El Niño-Southern Oscillation -buffy willow-

Dr. Pournelle,

Mr. Bob Tisdale, amateur scientist and avid student of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), has recently published in an e-book results from his studies. Its currently available as a downloadable .pdf and costs a measly $8.00. Quoting his web site, "Who Turned on the Heat? weighs in at a whopping 550+ pages, about 110,000+ words. It contains somewhere in the neighborhood of 380 color illustrations. In pdf form, it’s about 23MB. It includes links to more than a dozen animations, which allow the reader to view ENSO processes and the interactions between variables."

Also from his web site, he states, "this book clearly illustrates and describes the following:

1. Sea surface temperature data for the past 30 years show the global oceans have warmed. There is, however, no evidence the warming was caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gases in part or in whole; that is, the warming can be explained by natural ocean-atmosphere processes, primarily ENSO.

2. The global oceans have not warmed as hindcast and projected by the climate models maintained in the CMIP3 and CMIP5 archives, which were used, and are being used, by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for their 4th and upcoming 5thAssessment Reports; in other words, the models cannot and do not simulate the warming rates or spatial patterns of the warming of the global oceans—even after decades of modeling efforts.

3. Based on the preceding two points, the climate models in the CMIP3 and CMIP5 archives show no skill at being able to simulate how and why global surface temperatures warmed; that is, the climate models presented in the IPCC’s 4th and upcoming 5thAssessment Reports would provide little to no value as tools for projecting future climate change on global and regional levels."

The book is written for an educated layman to understand.

There is a preview of the book available here: http://bobtisdale.files.wordpress.com/2012/09/preview-of-who-turned-on-the-heat-v2.pdf

You can order the book here: http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2012/09/03/everything-you-every-wanted-to-know-about-el-nino-and-la-nina-2/. Once there, scroll down a page to find the actual transaction link and an explanation of the transaction process.

For those who saw the description "amateur scientist" and thought "What can Tisdale possibly know?", I refer you to the "Climate Science" blog run by Dr. Roger Pielke, Sr., retired professor of meteorology, where he writes, "Bob has contributed very important information on the documentation of ocean temperature patterns and trends, and this new book is a significant new addition to the climate science discussion." Here is the link: http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/2012/09/04/announcement-bob-tisdales-new-book-who-turned-on-the-heat-the-unsuspected-global-warming-culprit-el-nino-southern-oscillation/.

I knew Dr. Pielke nearly 20 years ago when I was obtaining my M.S. in Atmospheric Science from Colorado State University. He was on the staff then. I can’t recall if I took any courses from him, but I do recall him being a cordial person as well as being well grounded and fair minded. He’s probably forgotten more meteorology than I ever learned. 🙂

Jay Smith

I have been familiar with that hypothesis for a long time. It seems reasonable to me. I repeat, we know that there were dairy farms in Greenland in Viking times, and we also know that in that era growing seasons were longer across the entire Northern Hemisphere wherever we have records, from China to Sweden to Scotland to Naples. We also know that the Earth was much colder from the 15th to the 19th Centuries. Until climate theory accommodates those data points — Ah, well.

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Jerry,

This is a dust ring around the star Fomalhaut, but it sure looks like something Larry dreamed up. (NASA-ESA Herschel photo)

John DeChancie

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The Coldest Journey

Perhaps the last great challenge to human endeavor on Earth. Sir Ranulph Fiennes’ expedition will attempt to transit the 2,000 mile Antarctic continent on foot. In Winter.

Let brave men everywhere be heartened by their deed.

In the state-enforced mediocrity that is today’s socialist Britain, some still aspire to the exceptional. Perhaps among the last of their kind on the Foggy Island Off The Coast Of France.

http://www.thecoldestjourney.org/home/expedition/

Brings to mind . . .

"What a piece of work is a man!" Shakespeare _Hamlet_

"It is the incidence of heroes that matters, not the pattern of the

zeroes." – Rufo, _Glory Road_, Robert A. Heinlein

John Nichols

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Made for each other: liquid nitrogen and 1,500 ping-pong balls

Jerry

The Brits really know how to do LN2 + warm water + 1500 ping pong balls:

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/09/22/liquid_nitrogen_and_ping_pong_balls/print.html

Enjoy.

Ed

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Warp Speed and other mixed mailbag matters.

Mail 742 Thursday, September 20, 2012

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Warp Speed!

Jerry –

I can’t believe you haven’t commented on this. I had read about this concept before, but was completely bummed out by the energy requirements – with the realization that it might be possible to reduce them.

http://www.space.com/17628-warp-drive-possible-interstellar-spaceflight.html

I remember when I was a teenager, and the internet was "National Geographic." I used to pore over every delivery to my dad’s house. I especially loved the space issues. There was one on the expansion of the universe, that as a 15 year old didn’t make sense – the way they described the expansion of the universe exceeded the speed of light! I wrote a letter, and got back a very nice explanation from the author of the magazine article, who explained that space itself was expanding faster than light, and that was allowed under Einstein’s theory. It wasn’t until I took relativistic physics in college that I understood the concept fully.

Of course, I went on to do plain jane engineering, fully resigned to the concept that interstellar travel was for kids. Yeah, when I first heard about it, the Alcubierre warp drive seemed cool, but it was something that I would never see.

But now I am actually excited. Now this is something they should be putting money into. To hell with the God particle. Make this happen and set us all free!

Reading it made me feel sixteen again…

All the best to you and yours,

Brendan

brendan dooher

I have been waiting for more information. Yes, it’s exciting. But then I have always thought that there was a way around that absolute speed limit. Thinking doesn’t make something so, of course.

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link from realclearscience.com

Warp Drive May Be Possible, Scientists Say <http://www.space.com/17628-warp-drive-possible-interstellar-spaceflight.html> – Clara Moskowitz, Space.com

Gamma quadrant here we come.

Kind regards,

Michael

Michael Montgomery, MD

We can hope so.

http://news.yahoo.com/warp-drive-may-more-feasible-thought-scientists-161301109.html

Francis Hamit

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Warp drive

http://www.space.com/17628-warp-drive-possible-interstellar-spaceflight.html

" concept for a real-life warp drive was suggested in 1994 by Mexican physicist Miguel Alcubierre; however, subsequent calculations found that such a device would require prohibitive amounts of energy.

Now physicists say that adjustments can be made to the proposed warp drive that would enable it to run on significantly less energy, potentially bringing the idea back from the realm of science fiction into science.

But recently White calculated what would happen if the shape of the ring encircling the spacecraft was adjusted into more of a rounded donut, as opposed to a flat ring. He found in that case, the warp drive could be powered by a mass about the size of a spacecraft like the Voyager 1 probe NASA launched in 1977.

Furthermore, if the intensity of the space warps can be oscillated over time, the energy required is reduced even more, White found.

"The findings I presented today change it from impractical to plausible and worth further investigation," White told SPACE.com. "The additional energy reduction realized by oscillating the bubble intensity is an interesting conjecture that we will enjoy looking at in the lab."

White and his colleagues have begun experimenting with a mini version of the warp drive <http://www.space.com/9882-warp-drives-wormholes.html> in their laboratory.

They set up what they call the White-Juday Warp Field Interferometer at the Johnson Space Center, essentially creating a laser interferometer that instigates micro versions of space-time warps.

"We’re trying to see if we can generate a very tiny instance of this in a tabletop experiment, to try to perturb space-time by one part in 10 million," White said.

He called the project a "humble experiment" compared to what would be needed for a real warp drive, but said it represents a promising first step."

========

Here’s hoping it isn’t a hoax. Perhaps we will go to the stars with an Alcubierre drive instead of an Alderson drive? Whichever, they both work for me :).

Respectfully,

Brian P.

Jerry, the last I’d heard, they were thinking that warping space would require several solar masses’ worth of energy to warp space to any appreciable extent, but it seems they think there might be a loophole?

http://gizmodo.com/5942634/nasa-starts-development-of-real-life-star-trek-warp-drive

Let’s hope!

Best,

Jon

I can find little hard data or much about the people who believe in this. I hope they’re right of course.

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‘Arav’s theory is the first such claim that excarnation was practiced in the Holy Land in that era.’

<http://news.yahoo.com/ap-enterprise-grisly-theory-holy-land-mystery-070634051.html>

Roland Dobbins

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Chinese

Hi Jerry,

Needless to say, the Chinese would dispute any claims they were behind in science in the Classical era. Anyway there have been many periods in which civilizations have fallen behind and then retaken the lead. These periods seem to me to have little to do with essential linguistic or cultural qualities and are more often contingent on historical events. Need one mention the European dark ages, or the Arab and Persian renaissance during the same period in which Byzantine advances came to a halt while the Irish were the leading custodians of learning in the West? The rise and fall of Athens and then Alexandria as centers of learning seems likewise to be based not so much on language as on accidents of history.

Also you quoted De Camp to say the "classical form of the language" which is not actually the one that is written or spoken anymore. Needless to say Chinese has an enormous number of multi-character words that are not mere adoptions of foreign terms. For many clusters of words with similar denotations, you will find there are a group of related terms which often share a particular character; that might perhaps have been the single character word from the classical literary form of the language, but in actual usage, the multi-character words are used to avoid ambiguity.

I don’t think that attempts to relate linguistic forms to ethos or history are very effective as a rule. You might as well say that Japanese favors what we would call "passive" constructions and that explains their historical pacifism — not.

Regards,

-Laurence Brothers

For most of the history of China as we know it, language scholarship took up a large part of the scholar’s education. The civil service exams were based largely on linguistic abilities. I wopuld be astonished if the comparative lack of words in the language did not have an effect on culture. I have no idea how much.

The Chinese have adopted a lot of Western words, and they increasingly use online shorthand symbology.

Also note that classical written Mandarin is on the decline in favor of simplified Chinese <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simplified_chinese>. In fact, the only place you can really go these days to learn reading and writing in classical Mandarin is Taiwan.

Roland Dobbins

Which, of course, has been true since the Great Cultural Revolution. Japan greatly expanded the number of words gthat could be written in the phonetic (syllabic) character set. I don’t know what China did about that. Compound words in spoken language is much easier than making compound words in a an ideographic language, and of course learning to read ideographs is much harder and more time consuming than learning to read a phonetic language.

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What do we mean by energy independence anyway?

Jerry you write:

"In particular it is far better to invest in developing American resources than to fight wars overseas; it is better to invest in developing North American resources than to fight wars overseas. We are a maritime nation and we need a Navy, but we must not be dependent on overseas commerce for survival. Once again, it is better to invest in resources close at hand an under our control than to engage in foreign interventions."

What is our concern about Middle-Eastern oil? Are we expecting that oil producing nations there will stop selling it to someone in the industrialized world, thereby cutting off their supply of cash to buy laptops and drill bits? If for some reason this oil does become unavailable, the price on the world market will go up, and US oil users will pay more, whether or not their oil comes from the United States.

Suppose the US does manage to develop enough energy resources that can meet the entire demand with domestic sources, are we saying that the US would not allow the businesses that extract it to sell to foreign buyers (I believe Bill O’Reilly has suggested something similar)?

I’m not familiar with defense procurement, but is the US really able to build all of its high-tech military hardware without purchasing some materials and components over seas?

Presumably one tries to insulate against this as much as possible by maintaining stockpiles of critical materials sufficient for military purposes, and by not selling part of the stockpile at times of high prices to assuage voter frustration.

I would guess that foreign oil doesn’t represent as much of a security threat as the possibility of foreign powers introducing trap-doors into high-end semi-conductors used in weapon and communication systems. Perhaps the US should subsidize domestic semi-conductor fabs.

Mike Johns

What I mean by energy independence is that we don’t have to send the Marine to protect the energy sources, and we don’t have to maintain very large armed forces to assure our energy supply.

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The first news story I read today made me laugh pretty hard:

<.>

Old Glory strikes back.

In an apparent case of red, white and blue revenge, a Pakistani protester died yesterday after inhaling smoke from a burning American flag during an anti-US rally.

</>

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/international/america_basher_backfire_dKswUjW6LBShGc2uKrGyIM

We can only hope this has some wheels turning over at CIA.  =)

—–

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Definitely amusing…

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Jerry,

Regarding your View at https://www.jerrypournelle.com/chaosmanor/?p=9602

I don’t disagree that we should be as independent as possible on energy production and strategic manufacturing (including all military electronics, but as the commercial shops moves overseas so did most military electronics and other critical manufacturing, much to our present regret). As far as commercial electronics, I don’t care where they’re made except I would prefer the jobs here, and I note that a lot more of them would be here if we had the regulatory environment that the Founders envisioned (no income taxes, no concept of environmental regulation, and most federal income from import duties and excises). No onerous environmental regulation (which is not the same as NO environmental regulation, but we should have tread very carefully after the rivers stopped burning; and it’s ludicrous to limit coal power plants to less than 50 tons per year of mercury emissions nationwide while mandating mercury-containing compact fluorescents in the home – though the Sierra Club says that’s a net decrease of mercury emission into the environment (http://sierraclub.typepad.com/mrgreen/2011/07/mercury-in-fluorescent-bulbs-how-much-and-how-to-clean-up.html) it concentrates the released mercury in the home.

However, I don’t think it’s possible to disengage from the world, or even the Middle East, that thoroughly these days.

Consider Israel. One could argue (I note, but do not make, this argument), with 20/20 hindsight, that the US and Britain supporting the reformation of Israel in 1948 was a mistake. However, NOT supporting Israel, breaking those promises, is tantamount to abandoning her people to a repeat of the Holocaust. This time, our souls would be just as tainted by that failure as the Nazi’s were. And even if we were to stop using Middle Eastern oil – and abandon Israel – it would not be sufficient to appease the resurgent Islamofascists (amusingly, my spell checker wanted to spell that sadomasochists). In particular, I believe that leaving a resurgent Taliban in power in Afghanistan, independently of all other considerations (and there are many) just means that we’re going to have another domestic 9/11 in a a few years. Abandoning Israel would also not leave us immune to the Iranian bomb. (And yes, I believe that we need domestic missile defense protection on a scale not heretofore envisioned, and absolute border control and inspection to stoop surface entry of WMDs. Full disclosure, I’ve devoted most of my career to those two objectives).

There are two likely consequences of a broad pullback from the Middle East – a resurgent Caliphate, or a Middle East firmly under control of China and supplying them with oil under near slave labor conditions. Neither consequence would be beneficial to the US in the long term.

TJM

We did not need to stay for years in order to avoid leaving the Taliban in charge. They were out in weeks after we enabled the Northern Alliance. Then we decided to make a centralized state out of tribal Afghanistan and to let the Mayor of Kabul’s writ run through the high country and the passes. This would not be cheaply done. In fact it was not done at all.

As to energy independence I will continue to assert that if the $Trillion or more poured into the Iraqi sands and the Afghan mountains had been spent on development of US resources including building nuclear power plants, we probably could have afforded the wars. Or if we had simply taken the Iraqi oil we might have been able to afford Afghanistan. But we are not good at empire.

Incompetent Empire is not a good foreign policy. Nation building in Pakistan and Iraq and Afghanistan is expensive at best and requires more skills and stamina than we are likely to have.

It is hard to see what we have gained from those long and expensive wars. It is not hard to see what we might have gained from a national TVA project.

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Out of the Balkans

I don’t think America has so much successfully got out of the Balkans as that there is no shooting currently going on there.

Camp Bondsteel, with facilities for 7,000, is a sizable military base in Kosovo, a territory to which Yugoslavia still has nearly as good a claim as the US has to the Alamo. Bosnia remains not so much a state as a genocidal war frozen in place, requiring endless western subsidy, at least for the Moslem zone.

Basically it all depends on the Serbs not being prone to the sort of loony attacks the Arabs engage in (or indeed that happened there in 1914).

Neil Craig

And behind the Serbs are the Pan-Slavic Russians. We had no business in the Balkans and we still have no reason to have troops there. It is involvement in the territorial disputes of Europe. There is no gain in it for the people of the United States.

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NASA study: The Economic Impacts of the U.S. Space Program

http://er.jsc.nasa.gov/seh/economics.html

Turns out it was a good investment. I worry about anyone who is surprised by this fact.

John Harlow

No surprises there

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Saw this and thought of "Oath of Fealty"

Jerry:

Thought you might find this interesting:

http://gizmodo.com/5944208/the-quest-to-build-a-128+story-5+block-mega+skyscraper-in-the-middle-of-manhattan

Heh. ..bruce..

Bruce F. Webster

 

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“The entire arsenal was built with less computational power than what’s inside an iPhone.”

<http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/the-b61-bomb-a-case-study-in-needs-and-costs/2012/09/16/494aff00-f831-11e1-8253-3f495ae70650_print.html>

Roland Dobbins

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7W194GQ6fHI&feature=youtu.be

"Animial" may not be exactly accurate, but still very interesting.

Survive in space indeed…

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Subj: Time to re-read James Burnham’s _Suicide of the West_, alas!

http://www.chiltonwilliamson.com/books/the_conservative_bookshelf_suicide_of_the_west.html

>>Burnham’s thesis is straightforward. "Liberalism," he writes, "is the

>>ideology of western suicide. When once this initial and final sentence

>>is understood, everything about liberalism-the beliefs, emotions and

>>values associated with it, the nature of its enchantment, its

>>practical record, its future-falls into place. Implicitly, all of this

>>book is merely an amplification of this sentence." That is not to say,

>>Burnham adds, that liberalism is "’the cause’" of the contraction and

>>probable death of Western civilization. ("The cause or causes have

>>something to do, I think, with the decay of religion and with an

>>excess of material luxury; and, I suppose, with getting tired, and

>>worn out, as all things temporal do.") Rather, "liberalism has come to

>>be the typical verbal systematization of the process of Western

>>contraction and withdrawal; liberalism motivates and justifies the

>>contraction, and reconciles us to it." Liberalism’s hold, furthermore,

>>on public opinion and policy makes it ext

remely difficult for the Western nations to invent-and even to imagine-a strategy equal to the challenge to its existence by which the West is presently confronted.<<

I also remember Burnham describing liberalism as functioning as an _anesthetic_, desensitizing the West to the pain of its decline and eventual demise.

Rod Montgomery==monty@starfief.com

It is no secret that I have long been a Burnham fan.

Liberalism is a philosophy of consolation for the West as it commits suicide.

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Gingrich: ‘It is inconceivable that there just happened to be attacks in Egypt and Libya on Sept. 11.’

<http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0912/81182.html>

Roland Dobbins

Which is to state the obvious. In Libya they brought crew served weapons to a demonstration

US consulate in Benghazi ‘did not have enough security’

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19605322

"But sources have told the BBC that on the advice of a US diplomatic regional security officer, the mission in Benghazi was not given the full contract despite lobbying by private contractors."

At best, criminal negligence. The British decided the city was too hot for a consulate and pulled their out months ago, there have been attacks since. The country was recently in civil war. The region supplies many jihadis to the war against the forces of civilization.

Frankly, I’d have planned on evacuating the personnel to the actual Embassy for the whole calendar week of 9/11 and most other holidays with patriotic or religious significance.

Rioting and demonstrations extend from Morocco to Bangledesh, including London. Best case, the other targets are alert enough that the attacks which are likely ready now get cancelled or delayed until after the main body of useful idiots get bored again.

Serving Officer

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Economy in trouble 

Dear Dr. Pournelle,

I was recently in the Rockville Barnes & Noble and saw a great crowd of people on the second floor surrounding a guy with glasses at a desk. I snapped a blackberry photo of it.

http://img546.imageshack.us/img546/2279/interviewj.jpg .

I asked if it was a book signing. I was told that, no, these were job interviews. All of these people — some 20 or 30 by my count — are here for one purpose: to get a minimum wage job as a bookstore clerk.

The person I spoke to pointed at the first floor of the bookstore.

http://img507.imageshack.us/img507/511/emptystore.jpg

He said it had been like this all day. Few shoppers, but lots of people desperate for a minimum wage job.

The economy is in real trouble and needs fixing. Unfortunately, it is looking increasingly as if, barring an unforeseen miracle, we will have to do so in spite of the administration and not look for any help from the government.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2012/09/11/caddell_on_romney_this_is_the_worst_campaign_in_my_lifetime.html

Respectfully,

Brian P.

Comment is not really needed.

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Was Pournelle prescient? – ProfessorBainbridge.com

This is precisely why the US was founded as a Republic and should have remained a Republic.

http://www.professorbainbridge.com/professorbainbridgecom/2012/09/was-pournelle-prescient.html

Most of Obama’s constituents are precisely the people who never should have been allowed to vote.

Jim Crawford

Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

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Black Sea Fleet, The Road to Serfdom, and a large mixed mail bag

Mail 741 Tuesday, September 11, 2012

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‘It remains unclear how or why the Democratic Party used what’s believed to be images of the Russian Black Sea Fleet at their convention.’

<http://www.navytimes.com/mobile/news/2012/09/navy-russian-warships-displayed-dnc-veterans-tribute-091112>

Roland Dobbins

It’s the little things that embarrass you most

Dr. Pournelle —

Perhaps you saw this. File under "Oops".

Navy Times: Russian ships displayed at DNC tribute to vets

http://www.navytimes.com/mobile/news/2012/09/navy-russian-warships-displayed-dnc-veterans-tribute-091112

"But the fact they are Russian ships is not in doubt. In addition to the ship’s radar arrays and hulls, which are dissimilar from U.S. warships, the photo features one more give-away: a large white flag with a blue ‘X’ at the ships’ sterns.

Polmar, who authored “The Naval Institute Guide to the Soviet Navy,” recognized the blue ‘X’-mark: “The X is the Cross of St. Andrew’s, which is a Russian Navy symbol,” Polmar said. (An anchored U.S. warship, by contrast, flies the American flag on its stern.)"

I’m thinking this is taking inclusivity and diversity a little too far.

Pieter

I am not sure any comment is needed. Thanks.

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CoDominium Is Here!

From Instapundit:

http://www.professorbainbridge.com/professorbainbridgecom/2012/09/was-pournelle-prescient.html

George Fallenbeck

Not here yet, perhaps, but you can see the origin. See also Coming Apart by Murray. The elite no longer preach what they practive…

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‘The U.S. is now on the verge of a symbolic threshold: the point at which more than half of all American households receive and accept transfer benefits from the government.’

<http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444914904577619671931313542.html>

Roland Dobbins

See previous item…

Grievous bodily harm.

<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/9516776/Farm-tenant-arrested-after-burglars-shot-was-plagued-by-break-ins.html>

Roland Dobbins

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Guess the U.S. and Canada have bureaucracy in common – following is something a friend picked up

A lesson in irony..

The Food Bank Program, administered by Social Welfare Canada, is actually proud of the fact it is distributring the greatest amount of free meals and food vouchers ever.

Meanwhile, the National Park Service, adminstered by the Canada Parks and Natural Resources, asks us to "Please Do Not Feed the Animals."

Their stated reason for the policy is because the animals will grow dependent on handouts and will not learn to take care of themselves

Gordon Seddon

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SUBJECT: The Assault on Reason

Hi Jerry.

Commentary on current political discourse and (in Canada in particular) behavior of the government.

http://allangregg.com/?p=80

Cheers,

Mike Casey

Reason is always under assault…

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Vox populi

Jerry,

I found both the ramrodding of the Democrat voice vote, AND the fact that it was not unambiguously 2/3 in favor of the change, to be equally disturbing.

But there are a lot of religious conservative rural Democrats, and Catholics nationwide, who haven’t yet abandoned the party of their parents and grandparents (and in my case, to the fourth and fifth generation). The "abortion and contraception forever and free" aspect of the convention, combined with the widespread portrayal of that video without any spin other than the raw truth, is likely to shake a significant number of them out of the Democrat party.

Probably not my cousin the rural southern Baptist minister who has apparently proclaimed, "if Jesus Christ returned as a Republican, I’d still vote for the Democrats" (to the dismay of his family and parishioners, even the Democrats among them), but still…

I’ll also note that from my peripheral review of the subject, support for "choice" has shifted from a bare majority to a bare minority in the polls I’ve seen since 2008 and Sarah Palin’s familial choice of life for her young son and first grandson vs. the bitter attacks she suffered from the "pro-choice" fanatics for choosing life in those circumstances.

Meanwhile, another correspondent has brought to my attention that the 0.2 drop in unemployment announced this morning was accompanied by another decrease of 300,000 people from the labor pool. Thus continues the manipulation by mathematics…

Jim

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Let me see, didn’t I read about planets like this…

…in a three-book series you wrote? (Fourth book coming Real Soon Now…):

http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2012-285&cid=release_2012-285

"One of the unexpected revelations of planet hunting has been that many planets travel in very oblong, eccentric orbits that vary greatly in distance from their stars.

"’Planets like these may spend some, but not all of their time in the habitable zone,’ Kane said. ‘You might have a world that heats up for brief periods in between long, cold winters, or you might have brief spikes of very hot conditions.’"

Maybe they should name one of these planets "Tran"…not exactly the same mechanism (i.e., no dwarf companion for the main sun) but the same principle of cyclical climate.

CAPT Chris

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Cyborg Cockroaches

Dr. Pournelle —

Fascinating – but creepy and scary, too. A scene in a new story, maybe?

Cyborg Cockroaches Could be Future Emergency Responders

http://www.livescience.com/23016-remote-controlled-cyborg-roaches.html

"Researchers say they’ve figured out a way to create cyborg, remote-controlled cockroaches, hoping one day the resilient creatures could be steered into disaster zones to gather information and look for survivors.

Video footage from the experiments at North Carolina State University shows the part-robot raoches being directed along a curving path via remote control. The researchers say they attached a lightweight chip with a wireless receiver and transmitter onto Madagascar hissing cockroaches and wired a microcontroller to the insects’ antennae and cerci — the sensory organs on the bug’s abdomen that cause it to run away from danger."

– or new surveillance technique or, … . The real world gets stranger than fiction every day.

Pieter

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Another agency with armed agents.

Sent to you by BobK via Google Reader:

No, The Social Security Administration Is Not Arming for a Rebellion <http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheAtlanticWire/~3/_UgBNkYTsiA/story01.htm>

via The Atlantic Wire <http://www.theatlanticwire.com/> by Adam Martin on 9/4/12

As they often are, the conspiracy theories swirling around the Social Security Administration’s request for bids to provide 174,000 bullets <http://www.infowars.com/social-security-administration-to-purchase-174-thousand-rounds-of-hollow-point-bullets/> were so much more interesting than the explanation. The Associated Press brought the pedestrian news on Tuesday <http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gNYAOHYMsAaQaxuxegtPrcXrEC-Q?docId=775b212be3f64596b3cb3b81cebefedc> that the agency was buying the bullets to supply its Office of Inspector General, which employs 295 law enforcement agents, "who carry guns and make arrests." The agents investigate social security fraud, carrying out search warrants and responding to threats against the administration. They arrested 589 people last year, AP reports. "Agents carry .357 caliber pistols, [IG spokesman Jonathan L.] Lasher said. The bullets, which add up to about 590 per agent, are for the upcoming fiscal year. Most will be expended on the firing range."

Compare that commonplace explanation with Infowars’ suggestion <http://www.infowars.com/social-security-administration-to-purchase-174-thousand-rounds-of-hollow-point-bullets/> that "the Social Security Administration is purchasing the bullets as part of preparations for civil unrest," or the Daily Caller’s hyperventilating guess that SSA and other seemingly non-law-enforcement federal agencies such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration were arming themselves to put down a widespread uprising. Terrifying! And completely unfounded. Just to save everybody the trouble when the NOAA puts in its next request for supplies, let it be known that that agency, too, has a law enforcement wing <http://www.nmfs.noaa.gov/ole/ole_about.html> . This is like a lesson in government agencies, one conspiracy theory at a time.

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Jerry,

Obama’s 1995 mortgage discrimination lawsuit paved way for housing crisis

http://dailycaller.com/2012/09/03/with-landmark-lawsuit-barack-obama-pushed-banks-to-give-subprime-loans-to-chicagos-african-americans/

I had not heard this before. I knew the crisis was generated by government pressure to loan money to people who should not be borrowing it.

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Niven interview

Jerry,

I’m pretty sure you have already seen this, but passing it on just in case.

http://thefreehold.us/?p=877

Al

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Measurements indicating global warming is happening faster than expected

Hi Jerry,

It’s interesting to me that frequently when an announcement disputing global warning comes in you are told about it, but seldom do you get told of events supporting GW.

Sometimes the article you are told about is pretty light on credibility – the ones attributing heating/cooling to cosmic rays affecting cloud formation are memorable here, as (a) the point at which infrared photons exit the earth is high above clouds in the stratosphere, (b) the exit level is controlled by CO2 et al., and (c) there have _been_ no measured fluctuation in cosmic rays. You assume the supplier has done good-old-fashioned fact-checking before sending it on to you, but I fear that’s sometimes missing.

Getting to the point, in the last few months there have been at least 3 independent, solid global observations that are solid evidence for GW, plus a set of pretty strong hints in US and global records, and yet not a single note has been sent on to you.

Case in point: one of the most incredible new stories (that didn’t hit the news) this month has been the blowing away of arctic ice, as illustrated here: https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/ . Ice volume, which we are just getting a handle on measuring well, is the most shocking: over the last 10 years or so we have been losing a pretty solid 900 cubic kilometers per year, (it is thought to have started out at about 13-15,000 in the Fifties) with the rate of loss increasing each year. This year the Arctic will possibly dropdown to a scant 3000 cubic km. (source: PIOMAS) If the same rate continues, we will be down to 0 cubic kilometers in 4, possibility 3 years, *certainly* in 6. http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/

It seems the climate scientists who forecast an ice-free arctic in 2100 were very wrong, but in the wrong direction.

What do you think of these observations and the projected effect on the jet-stream and US weather from the additional stored heat when this happens?

Ken Rushton

I think that there were dairy farms in Greenland in Viking times, and that the Northwest Passage has been open more than once in the past millennia. And I still think I would rather be too warm than under a kilometer of ice.

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‘And then there’s the part of the story the Reuters piece doesn’t address: According to other reports, Zimmerman’s gun was loaded with hollow-point bullets — bullets that expand upon impact, maximizing internal damage and the chances of death. You don’t need hollow-point bullets to stop a pit bull. And you don’t need hollow-point bullets to stop a robber.’

<http://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2012/04/george-zimmermans-ammunition/256509/>

Roland Dobbins

Well, that’s illuminating…

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Comment on "how real is science"

Dear Dr. Pournelle,

I thought I understood Mr. Harry M. when he begin his comment on the role of science being subverted by agendas other than the search for truth. Then Mr. M. went on to make comments that sounded like he was saying science is attempting to replace religion.

From what little I know of the scientific method, I know that it can only be used on things that can be tested in the physical world.

Given that understanding there is never going to be a possibility of science explaining things that can not be tested in the physical world.

Religion, whether you have one or not, and whether you believe in it or not, is largely concerned with things that can not be tested in the physical world.

Science can study the effects of religion on a society or an individual but it can not legitimately study whether the beliefs of those with a particular religion are true or false. This makes me think that anyone claiming science is trying to subvert religion is using that claim as a straw man and seeking to gain publicity by that claim.

I also noted the mention of book with the title of "The God Particle". It is my understanding that the book on the Higgs Boson was actually going to be named "The God Damned Particle" in reference to current particle accelerators inability to produce evidence of said particle.

http://www.timesofmalta.com/articles/view/20120727/letters/The-Higgs-particle.430277

I heard the name of the book was shortened to avoid offending those whose religion forbids certain combinations of words and letters. This is one example of several someones taking a book title completely out of context and building a straw man they can poke the stuffing out of.

The reference to how valid scientific papers are by the speaker Dr. John Patrick points out several valid points in regards to people not being truthful due to personal needs that are not met by the truth. Dr. Patrick makes some interesting points about the ability of religion to set a standard of moral values that can later guide people to do the right thing even if their personal needs do not get met. He also raises the idea of tacit awareness and its power to predict, in some cases, the outcome of an experiment. Dr. Patrick implies that without religious training that instills proper morals there are no checks or balances on the validity of scientific papers. For some reason I thought scientific papers had to be reviewed and their assertions tested by other members of the scientific community before they were accepted. Am I wrong in that thought?

People are, after all people. We all have our opinions and we all like to protect our world from invasions of thought that might make us have to work a little harder.

The scientific method is a tool to try and discern truth in the testable physical world. It is a valuable tool when used for its intended purposes. It is also like using a screwdriver to pound in a nail when used for purposes that it was never intended to be used for.

In short, I do not find the assertion that science is not real as valid. I do find people jousting at science and at religion using a number of straw men to try and garner publicity.

Sincerely,

David P. Zimmerman

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Hello Jerry,

Harry M. requested commentary on his question: "How real is science?"

In his piece he noted that both climate scientists and Darwinists are noted for practicing ‘the politics of personal destruction’ when the axioms which pass for science in their fields are questioned.

I think that this would be a fine occasion for Harry to read Fred Reed’s column: "Fredwin on Evolution" , found here:

http://www.fredoneverything.net/EvolutionMonster.shtml

if he hasn’t already.

I think that he would enjoy it. I do. Every time I read it.

Bob Ludwick

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You asked, "Does grammar matter?"

This question was answered to my satisfaction by Richard Mitchell in his many books and essays.

In particular, Mitchell’s "Why Good Grammar"

concludes with

"Good grammar," in the fullest sense of the term, is neither an embellishment nor an accessory to anything else. It is the Law by which meaning is found and made. It may be, of course, that a good "education" ought to provide something more, but it is preposterous, perhaps even wicked, to suggest that it can be had with anything less.

http://www.sourcetext.com/grammarian/the-booklets/2.htm

<http://www.sourcetext.com/grammarian/the-booklets/2.htm>

Mitchell’s theme quote is from Ben Johnson:

Neither can his mind be thought to be in tune,

whose words do jarre;

Nor his reason in frame,

whose sentence is preposterous;

– Ben Johnson, Discoveries, 1641

(This can be found in more complete form at http://www.molenda.com/under-grammar/full-quote.html <http://www.molenda.com/under-grammar/full-quote.html> )

Mitchell was widely known for his newsletter "The Underground Grammarian," which he published for many years when he was a professor at Glassboro State Teachers College, now Rowan University, in New Jersey. In it he quoted materials distributed by academics on his campus and others, and then he took apart those writings line by line and word by word.

Thus, besides being useful, his books are absolutely hilarious.

His four books, the newsletter, and other booklets and writings are available for free at http://www.sourcetext.com/grammarian/index.html <http://www.sourcetext.com/grammarian/index.html> .

Best regards,

–Harry M.

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Remembering Neil Armstrong, the size of government, and many other matters

Mail 739 Friday, August 31, 2012

We have a great deal of mail on many topics. I have directly linked to some. Others float.

· Reaganomics

· Venezuela Oil

· Neil Armstrong remembered

· How real is science?

· Akin and the depth of the horror

· Hollow Point Ammunition discussed

· Etch a Sketch with Gravity

· Three Dee Printing and the future of terror

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Funny, but my takeaway from Reaganomics…

was that if you cut tax rates and revenue increased, you haven’t cut enough (shrinking .gov by starving the beast being the raison d’être). Color me surprised that that last hasn’t seemed to make it off the cutting room floor.

John S Allison

There is a far larger discussion here than we have time and room for today. Given the current state of government activity and entitlements the correct vector is toward less. Starve the beast. Sweden is a great example: one of the earliest European welfare states, Sweden got up to the brink. The government was spending about half the GDP. And Sweden pulled back, lowering taxes and chopping away at entitlements. Many would say they have not cut back far enough, and there is real debate on the subject, but what the Swedes discovered is that there can be a point of no return, and they were very nearly there. And they can now consider just what government can supply and what ought to be left to individuals and institutions like churches.

America needs that debate.

There are some things government does, and some of them it does well. We need a real national debate on the role of government in preparing for progress and the future. The building of infrastructure provides an example. Someone has to do it – and it’s not obvious who. Los Angeles has terribly high local as well as state taxes, and probably the worst streets of any major city in the US. The water system is ancient and water mains explode. Leaving matters to local government didn’t work. They collect the money, they spend the money, and the infrastructure doesn’t get built.

Handing it to the Federal government doesn’t solve the problem. Having local neighborhoods pave their own streets isn’t really working.

That’s merely an example. There are many more.

Space and investment in the future is an example. I’ve written much about that. There is a role for government, and it’s a necessary one. See my Getting to Space paper.

I agree with your sentiment, but I reserve the right to change things when we’ve gone far enough down that vector. Of course I don’t expect to live long enough to see that.

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Tax Reductions = Revenue Increases

You know that. Laffer knew that. I know that. So do many others.

However, when half the nation pays no federal income tax and many in that subset get some or all of their FICA payments refunded, the politics of envy and entitlement can reign supreme.

It is in the enlightened self interest of those who – if they earn income at all – are in the untaxed cash economy and who get food, clothing and shelter from involuntary contributions by taxpayers to favor tax increases on the "rich" and increased handouts for themselves and to vote for candidates who promise such.

How to overcome this bias is the real issue before the country.

I phoned my county commissioner in opposition to a proposed wheel tax because it would be one more hand in my pocket, and suggested an increase in the property tax instead. His response, that a wheel tax would obtain revenue from those adults who park a dozen or so vehicles outside a single dwelling and would be untouched by a property tax increase – especially if said dwelling is owned by the local housing authority. Made sense and kinda converted me. Actually a similar rationale to my preference for a high sales tax rate with zero tax in earned income.

Charles Brumbelow=

California is so desperate that they are raising fines and fees on everything: but then a huge percentage of California’s spending is for pensions, and any attempt to curb pension spending is met with union opposition.

My own view is that everyone must pay some kind of tax, even if it is only a few dollars a year in a head tax, and even if the money they pay comes from some government subsidy. Even those on disability ought to pay SOME tax. Spread the pain.

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Venezuela’s Oil

Jerry,

The 2 new catch phrases for me are ‘oil minister’ and ‘meritocracy.’

Note: I was originally sent the article without attribution. This appears to be the original link:

http://news.investors.com/article/623711/201208271917/venezuela-refinery-explosion-failure-socialism.htm

Venezuela’s Amuay Refinery Explosion Shows Why Hugo Chavez’s Socialism Is A Powder Keg

Tue, Aug 28 2012 00:00:00 E A12_ISSUES

Energy: Oil is rising sharply from two disasters in the Caribbean region – one, a fierce storm, and the other a massive blast at the world’s second-largest refinery in Hugo Chavez’s Venezuela. Only one was perfectly preventable.

When the strongman cracked the whip on Venezuela’s oil industry in 2003, firing 20,000 experienced oil managers from state-owned Petroleo de Venezuela (PDVSA) to break a strike he admitted he had provoked, he insisted that merit didn’t matter anymore, only political loyalty. "There will be no more meritocracy," he told his cheering red-shirts.

That philosophy has been laid out in all its glory with Saturday’s massive explosion, at the Amuay refinery, part of a 955,000-barrel-a-day complex, that has become the second deadliest in the history of the oil industry and the worst ever in the Western Hemisphere.

As of Monday, the complex is shut down. The death toll is as high as 48, with more than 150 injured, and the numbers are expected to rise. Twenty square kilometers have been left blackened with a devastation that can be topped only by a nuclear bomb, and fires are still not out. As Venezuelan officials assured everyone that all was under control Monday, a third storage tank caught fire. There is still no foam to fight the fire and no ambulances to transport the wounded, let alone hearses for the dead. Pickup trucks full of charred bodies and looters descending upon the infernal scene complete the tropical vision of Hell.

But "the show must go on," said Chavez in his only appearance after the explosion. At the same time, his oil minister Rafael Rodriguez assured that an accident of this magnitude wouldn’t affect shipments, even as the recovery date has been pushed back from two days to four.

Don’t think for one minute that it wasn’t caused by mismanagement based on Chavez’s socialist politicization of the oil industry. All signs point to

it:

* Refinery accidents at Amuay have increased horrifically since 2003. A group of former oil industry employees called Gente de Petroleo say that ever since Chavez replaced the workers with political hacks, 79 serious accidents have happened and 19 have died.

* The Amuay unit, according to Miguel Octavio on his excellent Venezuelan oil blog called the Devil’s Excrement http://devilsexcrement.com/2012/08/26/another-terrible-tragedy-due-to-chavista-mismanagement/ , had been scheduled for maintenance shutdowns nine times last year with only two going through because spare parts weren’t around. That’s a signature shortage of socialism where supply is tightly controlled by the government.

* Workers complained of abnormal gas leaks and saw a strange gas cloud for three days before Saturday’s 1:30 a.m. explosion and a union chief warned of trouble, but Chavista officials did nothing and are now denying there were warnings. But the evidence is there because workers tweeted about the problems before the blast. Yet even as the gas smell warned of a leak, no alarms went off and no evacuations occurred.

That is the opposite of what would have happened in the pre-Chavez era.

Former PDVSA managing director Pedro Burelli pointed out in an editorial in El Universal

http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/120827/aprenderemos-la-dura-leccion-de-amuay that in the past, PDVSA managers were awarded bonuses for safe,

incident-free days. Today, they are only rewarded for wearing Chavez’s signature color, red, and going to political rallies.

Incompetence has piled on top of incompetence in this fiasco. Nobody had foam to douse the fires, and nobody was responsible enough to know why.

Arrangements were made with Citgo in Houston to fly in foam from the U.S.

after the blast. But according to Venezuelan columnist Nelson Bocaranda, as of Monday, that foam is now sitting on the tarmac in Atlanta as PDVSA officials frantically seek an airplane to fly it through Isaac to still-burning Amuay.

Meanwhile, ambulances are absent because Chavez has made even those a political object, shipping them to Bolivia to show socialist solidarity. It never occurred to him that they might be needed near one of the world’s largest and most dangerous industrial complexes.

If this isn’t the whole damning summary of the ruin Chavez has made of Venezuela, what is? The one thing that can be concluded here is that Venezuela is declining as a global player in the oil industry for this reason and now sells just 10% of the U.S. energy supplies. As Chavez destroys the industry, the sad thing is that those who were in the vicinity of this powder keg are no longer around to tell the story.

Back during the Cold War we had this sort of example before us as a reminder of what happens when you go too far down the entitlement road. Even after The Wall came down we had the horror examples from East Germany. Socialism doesn’t work.

And it can certainly happen here. Look at American education, once the envy of the world, now a disintegrating ruin of political correctness and entitlement.

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His Hands are a Weapon.

Dr. Pournelle:

If you need one more piece of evidence of the sad state of US "education" consider the following proof that American Educators believe in magic. Equating the symbol for the thing is a prime element of magic is it not? Students have long been barred from drawing pictures of weapons, now a child is told to change his name because his sign language gesture resembles the old pointed finger for a gun. Amazing.

Jim Watson

http://www.1011now.com/home/headlines/Grand-Island-Preschooler-Forbidden-Sign-Language-for-His-Own-Name-167394325.html

Hunter Spanjer says his name with a certain special hand gesture, but at just three and a half years old, he may have to change it.

"He’s deaf, and his name sign, they say, is a violation of their weapons policy," explained Hunter’s father, Brian Spanjer.

Grand Island’s "Weapons in Schools" Board Policy 8470 forbids "any instrument…that looks like a weapon," But a three year-old’s hands?

"Anybody that I have talked to thinks this is absolutely ridiculous. This is not threatening in any way," said Hunter’s grandmother Janet Logue.

"It’s a symbol. It’s an actual sign, a registered sign, through S.E.E.," Brian Spanjer said.

S.E.E. stands for Signing Exact English, Hunter’s sign language. Hunter’s name gesture is modified with crossed-fingers to show it is uniquely his own.

As for example. And of course the intentions are good. They always are.

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Neil Armstrong remembered

Terrific memories of Neil Armstrong by Dr. Leon Cooper my former science teacher in Tucumcari, NM and later retired cyclotron specialist at LASL:

I had the incredible opportunity to meet and visit with Neil Armstrong in 1963 at a two-day science symposium in El Paso. Los Alamos High School was invited to send a teacher and two students to the symposium, with Gordon Cooper (a "real" astronaut) as the guest speaker. When Cooper had to cancel at the last moment, NASA sent a substitute, Neil Armstrong. It was a real disappointment, for we figured that we’d lost a great opportunity. At one of the luncheons, Armstrong wandered over to our table (there was an empty chair) and asked whether he might join us. There were 15 or so round tables that seated four people each. One of my students asked how NASA was going to be able to substitute the moon’s gravity on earth, in order that an astronaut could practice walking at the reduced gravitational force. Armstrong used a napkin to sketch an experiment that he’d been thinking about. It involved attaching a sturdy "peg" about 20 feet up on the wall of a gym, suspending a rope from the peg, with the other end attached to an individual’s waste, using some kind of harness. The individual would push back from the wall, then lay over in horizontal position with his feet on the wall and would then "walk" on the wall (horizontal to the floor). He suggested that the force of the individual’s feet on the wall would be somewhat similar to that of the force of attraction by moon gravity on anyone walking on the moon. One of those students used that napkin as a book mark in his Advanced Physics book for the rest of the year.

The major disappointment from that symposium turned out to be one of the major highlights of out lives.

Leon Cooper

(I recall Neil Armstrong having quite a number of small freckles across his nose, as though he’d grown up in NM (rather than Ohio). I’ve often wondered whatever happened to that napkin??

‘By then, Gemini 8 was making one full revolution _per second_.’

<http://news.discovery.com/space/neil-armstrong-at-the-helm-120730.html>

Roland Dobbins

While I got to meet all seven of the original astronauts while working on project Mercury, I never got to meet Neil Armstrong. Even so, I felt that I almost new him. In January 1969, I was attending a pretest conference at the Langley 30by60 ft wind tunnel and got to see the Lunar Landing trainer. It was in the tunnel being tested for cross wind effects after Neil had ejected from another trainer. I was told that the control system did not have enough power to overcome aerodynamic loads from wind. On March 16 1967, I was flying a C97 from Wake Island to Japan as Neil aborted Gemini 8 into the Pacific. As best as I can tell, I passed very clost to the Gemini landing site. We didn’t find out about the Gemini 8 emergence landing until we landed in Japan. I also conducted transonic wind tunnel tests of the Satern V/Apollo launch configuration and watched TV broadcast of the Moon landing.

Chuck Anderson

Neil Armstrong

In his own words

Neil Armstrong (Address to both houses of Congress, Tuesday, September 16, 1969): “We landed on the Sea of Tranquility, in the cool of the early lunar morning, when the long shadows would aid our perception. The sun was only 10° above the horizon. While the earth turned through nearly a full day during our stay, the sun at Tranquility Base rose barely 11°—a small fraction of the month long lunar day. There was a peculiar sensation of the duality of time—the swift rush of events that characterizes all our lives—and the ponderous parade which marks the aging of the universe. Both kinds of time were evident—the first, by the routine events of the flight, whose planning and execution were detailed to fractions of a second—the latter by rocks around us, unchanged throughout the history of man—whose 3-billion-year-old secrets made them the treasure we sought.”

Neil Armstrong (30th anniversary press conference, Kennedy Space Center): “But the (school children), I find, are pretty enthusiastic about what we did. The regret on our side is that … some years ago they used to say, "We were reading about you in science class." And … then it was, "We’re reading about you in history class." And now I think it’s early American history.” (http://history.nasa.gov/ap11ann/pressconf.htm, accessed June 27, 2011)

Gene Cernan (the last man on the moon), 30th anniversary press conference: “I don’t think any one of us — any one of us — who would have had that opportunity could have handled it with as great and as — and honorable dignity as Neil Armstrong has handled the responsibility of being the first human being to step foot on the surface of the moon. (applause)” (http://history.nasa.gov/ap11ann/pressconf.htm, accessed June 27, 2011)

Seelye Martin

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A question of some importance: how real is science?

Jerry:

Perhaps you and your readers would be willing to comment on the following question:

What fraction of the scientific literature is fabricated in the service of agendas?

I ask because of many reasons. Here are just a few.

1.) When I earned my Ph. D. in physics in the 1960’s, I was taught to examine all the evidence on all sides of an issue to come to an understanding of reality. Today, climatologists and Darwinists use the politics of personal destruction to silence anyone who presents data that disagree with their respective orthodoxies. Scientists now seem to be trained in the manner of journalists, using their knowledge of science to mislead and deceive in the service of their political, economic, social, and religious agendas.

2.) Professor David Stove in his delightful book "Darwinian Fairytales: Selfish Genes, Errors of Heredity, and Other Fables of Evolution" comments on the methods of Darwinists:

"Wherever Darwinism is in error, Darwinians simply call the organisms in question or their characteristics, an error! Wherever there is manifestly something wrong with their theory, they say that there is something wrong with the organisms.

p. 320

3.) Dr. William Lane Craig said in a recent podcast:

I’ve said as a result of my experience with people like Lawrence Krause, Stephen Hawking, and certain others that we can no longer trust these men to tell us about the implications of modern scientific theories.

There is an agenda, perhaps a naturalistic or anti-religious agenda that drives these statements suggesting that somehow the discovery of the final particle … somehow disproves religion or worse.

At 16:25 minutes into "The God Particle"

http://www.reasonablefaith.org/the-god-particle <http://www.reasonablefaith.org/the-god-particle>

4.) Dr. John Patrick, President of Augustine College in Ottawa, delivering the David Jack Memorial Lecture for 2011 entitled ‘Molecular Romance: is there more to life than science?’, says:

We have no idea now, do we, how much of the scientific literature is fabricated. And, of course, it’s very hard to imagine why it wouldn’t be fabricated. We’re merely reaping the rewards of what we have taught."

43:37 minutes into the talk at

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZYOTUEQinowAt <http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZYOTUEQinowAt>

Your comments and those of your readers will be appreciated.

Best regards,

–Harry M.

This requires a longer answer than I have time for; and perhaps others have something to say.

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Akin, And The Depths of the Horror

Jerry,

Everyone, especially Mr. Akin, should read this piece on the costs of rape: http://www.cnn.com/2012/08/22/opinion/prewitt-rapist-visitation-rights/index.html?hpt=us_mid. This is written by a woman who was herself raped, conceived a child, carried and raised the child. And became a lawyer to try to fix the laws that surround rape. Did you know that in 31 states, a rapist can assert his rights as a parent, obtaining access to the child he forcibly fathered and access to the woman he violated? Did you know that this fact is often used by the rapist as blackmail to avoid being prosecuted for the crime of rape — "prosecute and I will assert my parental rights, don’t and I will sign them away…"

This is a horror. An abysmal, medieval horror. How can an enlightened society allow this?

Kevin L. Keegan

This happens because there is no serious debate or rational discussion; everything happens in a political context. Roe vs. Wade has been a disaster by federalizing what must be left to the states and in a wise society would be left to counties. Responsibility ought to be local.

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Hollow Points

Here is a great deal about ammunition, possib ly enough that we don’t need more, although I’ll consider anything cogent. I’ve been collecting all this since the topic first came up. The subject is interesting. There is a great deal here, some repetitive; and perhaps this closes it?

Re: Ammunition

Dear Sir,

Concerning Roland Dobbins letter frothing about hollowpoint ammunition, while there has been in the gun community an oft repeated warning against any kind of reloaded ammo because of how it might appear in court, and that in some backwards places on the east coast like New York may still only issue FMJ, even the heel dragging LAPD switched to hollow points over twenty years ago:

http://articles.latimes.com/1990-04-18/local/me-1244_1_hollow-point-bullets

E.Lee Bohannon

Re: Ammunition, Etc. (Roland Dobbins’ Remarks)

Hi,

I must take exception to Roland Dobbins’ remarks on ammunition and self defense with guns. His statements might have been true at one time, at least in some places… nowadays only in GFW (gun fearing wussy) states and cities, and those places are growing fewer by the day. Most states have either Stand Your Ground or Castle Doctrine in effect; only a few states still have a duty to retreat. See the chart here:

http://www.readyholster.com/blog/stand-your-ground-gun-laws-infographic

Stand Your Ground and Castle Doctrine laws generally shield the self-defender from criminal or civil suits. As for hollow point ammunition, sound advice is to find out what your local police department uses, and go with the same ammo. The legal system will look kindly on that most anywhere. And yes, all law enforcement agencies use hollow point ammo due to its effectiveness. Of the millions who legally carry in the US, open or concealed, the vast majority use hollow point ammunition. Ammunition manufacturers have done a lot of research to produce effective self-defense ammo, and it’s widely available.

I found it funny that Pachmayr grips were mentioned. They’re not "tactical", "mall ninja" or any of that; I use Pachmayrs because they work better than the OEM grips. I would expect no repercussions of it if I had to use my weapon in a home/self defense situation. In any gun-friendly state nowadays, if the gun itself is legal, cosmetic/"tactical" accessories would have no bearing. Of course, if you were in some liberal hell like Chicago your mileage may vary.

Keep up the good work,

Darrell

Dr. Pournelle:

I have been reading Roland Dobbins’ contributions to the gun boards for some time now.

He is right in that there seems a cottage industry in advising one not to modify or customize his sidearm for fear of being accused of being a "gunslinger." Perhaps he knows of successful prosecutions and lawsuits that I do not.

However, his is the first account I have heard that "sensible law enforcement agencies forbid their armed operatives…from using anything other than full-metal jacket ammunition." Around here, all "sensible" persons in and out of law enforcement use hollowpoint bullets for the reasons already given, greater effectiveness against the opponent and less risk of overpenetration or riccochet endangering bystanders.

The last civil agency I heard of to use full jacketed bullets was the NYPD when management reluctantly permitted a change from revolvers to selfloading pistols. That was coupled with a limitation on magazine content to ten rounds, not the full 15-17 shot capacity of their Sigs, Berettas, and Glocks. But that was over 20 years ago and the bureaucrat who set such policy did not last long. His successor was sensible and had his men fully load their pistols with expanding bullet ammunition.

Jim Watson

Dr. Pournelle –

Roland Dobbins wrote:

"Why all your correspondents urging the use of hollowpoint ammunition are dead wrong."

I beg to differ.

"But that’s nothing compared to what a prosecutor a la Trayvon or a civil attorney representing the family of the deceased will do to you in a courtroom."

While it is true that the lawyers will try to make a justifiable shooting into something different, the key is knowing how to defend yourself in court, and getting the right lawyer on your side. Take Massad Ayoob’s training:

http://massadayoobgroup.com/

Massad has for many years taught his students how to survive the legal aftermath of a justifiable shooting. I have taken 3 of his 40 hour course down through the years, and can’t stress how important what he teaches is.

"As a result, sensible law enforcement agencies forbid their armed operatives … from using anything other than full-metal jacket ammunition."

Once upon a time many police departments did indeed require officers to use full-metal jacket ammo, but the evidence against the effectiveness of FMJ ammo is so strong that even the hyper politically correct New York City Police now use Jacketed Hollow Point ammo:

http://www.backwoodshome.com/articles2/ayoob130.html

Ray A. Rayburn

NRA Certified Firearms Instructor

(and Patron Subscriber)

Hollow-point ammunition

Mr. Dobbins’ comments regarding ammunition do not reflect current best practices. Virtually all law enforcement agencies have policies requiring the use of hollow-point ammunition for the reasons you previously posted (more likely to stop target, less likely to over-penetrate and injure unintended targets). For example, if you Google “FBI duty ammunition” you will find press releases by ammunition manufacturers crowing that they are supplying the FBI with hollow-point ammunition. Next time you run across your local law enforcement officer, ask him or her what type of ammunition is in his or her service weapon.

Moreover, Mr. Dobbins’ stated concerns regarding plaintiffs’ attorneys are overstated. I have access to a database of verdicts and settlements from across the United States going back to at least 1991. My search for all verdicts or settlements that involved hollow-point ammunition found 7 cases. Several of them had nothing to do with the hollow-point ammunition (e.g., one case involved the defendant brandishing, but not firing, a revolver loaded with hollow-point ammunition). In other words, there is no epidemic of plaintiffs’ attorneys demonizing people who shoot someone in self-defense with hollow-point ammunition. The standard defense approach to counter such arguments when they are made is to present evidence that the local law enforcement agency uses hollow-point ammunition and then to present evidence why the local law enforcement agency uses hollow-point ammunition. Furthermore, contrary to Mr. Dobbins’ comments, juries do find it highly relevant that plaintiff (or his estate) was a bad person doing bad things (however, try to get a conservative jury). Finally, if you really, truly believe that your life is in danger or that you face serious bodily injury (i.e., the only time you should be shooting someone), I submit that you want to be using the ammunition that is most likely to stop the target as quickly as possible. You can worry about defending your wealth once you have ensured your continued existence.

Anon

Hollow Points

Dir. Pournelle,

Introductory stuff first – I’ve enjoyed your work for years. It has given me many hours of pleasure. I’d go on, but your time is valuable. Thank you.

As to what prompts my e-mail:

A recent correspondent claims that use of hollow point ammunition is a sure way to be painted in a courtroom as a killer – to be either imprisoned by a criminal court or bankrupted by a civil court in the aftermath of a violent encounter.

First, yes, there are instances of abuse in the courts with prosecutors attempting exactly what the writer describes. It has even worked. But there are also ways of dealing with that tactic. Expert witnesses can demonstrate to (firearms ignorant) juries that hollow point ammunition is perfectly reasonable to use in any defensive handgun.

Second, and related to the first point: The writer claims that "sensible" agencies require the use of full metal jacket ammunition. This is incorrect and in testimony the expert witness would surely point out the long list of law enforcement agencies that use hollow point rounds. The list would start with the FBI and could go on for pages. The testimony might include "The defendant uses the exact same ammunition used by *insert name of the local police force* and for the same reasons. Not because he has any interest in being a killer, vigilante, or wannabe police officer, but because that round has been demonstrated to be the most effective in stopping an assailant while simultaneously being the least likely to over-penetrate and injure an innocent bystander. It was the most responsible choice he could have made."

Third, and most importantly, we need to remember that this is in the context of an encounter where lethal force is used. Your life is at stake here. The author wishes to "immunize oneself as much as possible against post-self-defense legal assault…" I’d suggest that it is the literal, lethal assault that one should be concerned with surviving.

John Pershing

p.s. I’m tempted to think that the letter itself was satire that I’m just not getting. The above information is available with just a cursory examination of the literature related to self defense and firearms (it is so prevalent I haven’t bothered with source notes). Further, the author references field artillery and air-strikes by law enforcement – am I just missing his larger joke?

John Pershing

Hollow point bullets

Hi Jerry,

Roland Dobbins’ comments are a decade or two out of date. Your earlier correspondents on the topic are bang on. Hollow points (and other things he mentioned like lasers) are the tools used to stop the assailant with minimum rounds fired to minimize the chances of bystanders being hurt by stray bullets. You own every round fired and the consequences there of.

Practically speaking the faster you stop the assailant the greater the chance that his injuries will be minimized and be survivable. So ultimately hollow points are the more humane option as well.

I won’t write a book here, but if you are interested, the go to guys on the topic are John Farnham and Massad Ayoob.

All the best,

Richard Kullberg

Mr Dobbins writes:

Why all your correspondents urging the use of hollowpoint ammunition are dead wrong. (etc.)

I beg to differ; although I do understand his point, I’ve seen no evidence of it. There are other reasons for not using (or relying exclusively on) JHPs, including their tendency to spend all of their energy in heavy clothing (I’ve seen the photos), but most of the country does not have the approach to self defense ammo selection that he outlines. That could be true in the Big Blue Coastal Cities, but not in flyover country.

And I agree wholeheartedly with the View post from the "Serving Military Member."

Jim

Roland Dobbins’ Letter About Ammunition

Jerry:

It’s been a long time since I wrote so I hope this finds you well. After seeing Roland Dobbins’ letter in the 8/22 Mailbag I had to reply.

Mr. Dobbins paints with an overly broad brush. If I remember correctly, he lives in California and that may have colored his experiences and beliefs regarding the use of jacketed hollowpoint (JHP) ammunition. In any event, he makes several statements that are just wrong.

First, while the use of a customized weapon or JHP ammo may allow a prosecutor or plaintiff’s attorney to vilify a person who shot a criminal in some jurisdictions, that isn’t the case in all jurisdictions. Granted, the media may make hay from it. As for an attorney representing a shootee or his family, an increasing number of states bar lawsuits against someone who justifiably shot someone in self defense.

Second, his claim that virtually no law enforcement officers — except for SWAT — are permitted to use other than full metal jacket ammo is hogwash. Even the New York City Police Department issues JHPs for use in their Glocks. When the changed over from revolvers to Glock semiautos the first load they used was indeed FMJ. However, they changed to JHPs after a couple innocent bystanders were injured by FMJ bullets that had passed completely through perps shot by cops. Here in Philadelphia and the surrounding areas, JHPs are standard. Among others, the Delaware State Police and Texas DPS issue SIG autoloaders chambered for the .357 SIG round, loaded with JHP bullets. (The .357 SIG was developed to provide the same ballistics of the .357 Magnum revolver cartridge in a case design suitable for semiautomatic pistols. Restricting it to FMJ bullets would result in grossly excessive penetration when used against criminals in a civilian setting.)

Regards,

Dave Markowitz

Fish and wildlife bullets –

Dear Dr. Pournelle,

Jomath wrote, "I have little experience with firearms, but the webpage referred to jacketed hollow point bullets. Isn’t that more bullet than necessary even for self defense?"

A common misconception, but hollow point bullets can actually be safer for all involved – including the person being shot that – than the most common alternative (full metal jacketed bullets).

Hollow points generally penetrate less in tissue, reducing the risk to bystanders due to over penetration (bullets exiting the target with enough energy to still cause fatal wounds). Hollow points can also generate greater damage – both actual tissue damage and ‘psychological shock’ – which can reduce the number of shots required to stop someone, and actually increase the likelihood of survival for the person being shot. Hollow points also increase the chances of stopping an attacker before you run out of ammunition.

Wadcutters – usable in revolvers, but not in semiautos – share the hollow point’s limited penetration, but not their increased ‘stopping power’.

This is a story told to me by one of my friends long ago. He used to work for the Fish and Game in Alaska.

You may recall that salmon ‘spawn’. They have to return to the exact place where they were born to do this.

During spawning season, salmon are easy to harvest, but once done, the place where they spawn will be thoroughly depleted, and will not produce significant salmon for years after.

The Fish and Game used to send wardens out to various inlets and rivers clandestinely to try to catch fishing vessels ‘cheating’. If caught there are big fines, the ship can be confiscated, etc.

What was happening is some of the wardens were not coming back.

Since Alaska is a big place and still very much of a wilderness even today one can only speculate as to what happened to them. It is possible something nefarious…

So they started sending wardens out in pairs. One would perform

the ‘arrest’, the other would secretly observe. That was the end

of the mysterious disappearance of the wardens.

Fisheries Service

Dir. Pournelle:

A friend worked for a time as a fisheries cop as described by Mr Kawaratani.

He had a uniform and a badge and a pistol.

It was his duty to check whether commercial fishing vessels of they type they now make reality tv shows about were complying with regulations as to take.

He is an example of the failure of credentialism and the triumph of intelligence and application.

He has a degree in marine biology and this was the closest he ever got to working in the field.

He has been otherwise gainfully employed in a bank and a couple of machine shops, including one where he worked on mirrors for the James Webb Space Telescope.

Jim Watson

Roland Dobbins, in his note, is partially right, and partially wrong.

He’s right that it’s far better to defend yourself with an unmodified, factory stock, firearm.

He’s completely wrong about hollowpoint ammunition. I work at a facility which trains the elite of U.S. military, and federal, state, and local law enforcement agencies. There may be some police agencies which mandate the use of full-metal-jacket bullets by street officers – but I am not aware of them. All I know of require the use of expanding bullets – and the main concern is liability, because FMJ bullets often go right through a person shot with them.

Anyone concerned about that issue should ask their local police department what they carry, and then use that.

Military personnel are restricted from using expanding bullets by international treaty – which is not an argument in favor of FMJ bullets. If they could carry hollowpoints, they would.

Best regards,

Lindy Sisk

/quote

This isn’t speculation; I’ve seen this sort of thing play itself out multiple times. As a result, sensible law enforcement agencies forbid their armed operatives – with exceptions for SWAT-type paramilitaries, who apparently can employ field artillery and air-strikes with impunity – from customizing their weapons in any way, from using anything other than full-metal jacket ammunition, and even from utilizing accessories such as cutaway holsters or under-arm clip carriers.

Roland Dobbins

/End quote

Florida Statutes prohibit the use of full-metal jacket ammunition for private security officers, they understand the danger. All law-enforcement agencies in the State of Florida prohibit the use of full-metal jacket ammunition for duty or off-duty use. There are no prohibitions on how you carry a magazine beyond those on your duty belt(clips are what you use to load a magazine). The claims of lawyers swarming all over such things seem to come up often but case citations never seem to appear.. As far as I know only the State of New Jersey prohibits Hollow Point Ammunition to citizens, but issue it to all of their troopers.

As to modifications to weapons, you can’t modify your car either. It is all State property and they don’t care for self-taught gunsmiths making a mess of things.

Al Lipscomb

MCSE AA4YU CISSP

NRA Certified Handgun, Rifle, Shotgun Instructor. Range Safety Officer.

Suarez International Instructor.

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Now we know…

…the real reason the Feds took over so many existing student loans.

http://www.smartmoney.com/borrow/student-loans/grandmas-new-financial-problem-college-debt-1344292084111/

"Deanne Loonin, a staff attorney at the National Consumer Law Center in Boston, says she’s been working with an 83-year-old veteran whose Social Security benefits have been reduced for the past five years. The client fell behind on a federal loan that he signed up for in the ’90s to help with his son’s tuition costs; Loonin says the government’s cuts have left the client without enough cash to pay for medications for heart problems and other ailments."

Charles Brumbelow=

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‘A New Zealand man who assaulted his wife with an ostrich egg after her pet pig ran amok has been jailed for six months, local media reported on Thursday.’

<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/australiaandthepacific/newzealand/9493730/Man-who-assaulted-wife-with-ostrich-egg-jailed-for-six-months.html>

—–

Roland Dobbins

The world goes on…

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Lest Darkness Fall

Dr Pournelle

I just finished L Sprague de Camp, Lest Darkness Fall; a rocking good read. Over and over again, I drew connections between LDF and your book, A Spaceship for the King; de Camp wrote of Padway’s invention of horse collars but attributes no great changes to the invention while in ASftK their introduction plays a pivotal role in the outcome.

Did you have LDF in mind when you wrote ASftK?

Live long and prosper

h lynn keith

Probably. Sprague and I read many of the same books, and Lest Darkness Fall was one of my favorites. I also love his Ancient Engineers, and probably my favorite was An Elephant for Aristotle, a historical novel. Of course I grew up reading The incompleat Enchanter…

I am not sure where I got the notion of the importance of the horsecollar; probably in a book on the history of slavery. After the invention of the horsecollar horses became more valuable for much brute labor than people. Without the collar you need oxen to pull heavy loads on roads. A horse without horse collar doesn’t have a horsepower of work, and he eats a lot more than a human slave. With the horse collar the economic change. I don’t remember where I first learned that. I wouldn’t be astonished to find I learned it from Fletcher Pratt.

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Just Plain Rings!

Jerry,

Nice shots of Saturn’s rings over the years. They remind me we can do something right and beautiful once in a while.

Regards, Charles Adams, Bellevue, NE

Nightside rings 8/27/12

<http://saturn.jpl.nasa.gov/photos/imagedetails/index.cfm?imageId=4623>

Light & Dark Tricks 10/4/10

<http://saturn.jpl.nasa.gov/photos/imagedetails/index.cfm?imageId=4153>

Activity Past Darkside 8/24/10

<http://saturn.jpl.nasa.gov/photos/imagedetails/index.cfm?imageId=4107>

High Phase Drama 4/2/10

<http://saturn.jpl.nasa.gov/photos/imagedetails/index.cfm?imageId=3930>

In Saturn’s Shadow 10/11/06

<http://saturn.jpl.nasa.gov/photos/imagedetails/index.cfm?imageId=2314>

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Your brain is no longer private

It was only a matter of time:

<.>

It sounds like something out of the movie “Johnny Mnemonic,” but scientists have successfully been able to “hack” a brain with a device that’s easily available on the open market.

Researchers from the University of California and University of Oxford in Geneva figured out a way to pluck sensitive information from a person’s head, such as PIN numbers and bank information.

The scientists took an off-the-shelf Emotiv brain-computer interface, a device that costs around $299, which allows users to interact with their computers by thought.

The scientists then sat their subjects in front of a computer screen and showed them images of banks, people, and PIN numbers. They then tracked the readings coming off of the brain, specifically the P300 signal.

The P300 signal is typically given off when a person recognizes something meaningful, such as someone or something they interact with on a regular basis.

Scientists that conducted the experiment found they could reduce the randomness of the images by 15 to 40 percent, giving them a better chance of guessing the correct answer.

Another interesting facet about the experiments is how the P300 signal could be read for lie detection.

In the paper that the scientists released, they state that “the P300 can be used as a discriminative feature in detecting whether or not the relevant information is stored in the subject’s memory.

“For this reason, a GKT based on the P300 has a promising use within interrogation protocols that enable detection of potential criminal details held by the suspect,” the researchers said.

</>

http://seattle.cbslocal.com/2012/08/25/scientists-successfully-hack-brain-to-obtain-private-data/

Still, I doubt this would be usable without consent.  After all, if you cannot argue that brain contents are safe from unreasonable search and seizure then what is safe?  And, what about a person’s right to remain silent and not incriminate himself or herself?  Still, joining CIA could become much more interesting…

—–

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

The problem is that we need to have people with the technical understanding who also have some knowledge of history and politics, and an education in Western Civilization. Alas I do now know who is today’s Benjamin Franklin or Thomas Jefferson.

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Interesting Web Site

Dr. Pournelle,

I learned about this web site yesterday: http://thisissand.com/. I’m not sure how to describe the site. Maybe "an Etch-a-Sketch with gravity". I keep going back and making changes to what I’ve done before, so the site qualifies as a time-waster, too. There’s something soothing about the site, at least to me.

Hope you find it fun.

Jay Smith

Thanks!

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Mobile lab 3D-prints gear as needed in Afghanistan

Dr. P,

For some reason, this brought to mind the factory scene in Prince of Sparta:

The Army has joined the growing 3D printing movement, deploying mobile laboratories to Afghanistan equipped with prototyping and printing equipment that can create tools and other gear for soldiers on the spot.

The service’s Rapid Equipping Force delivered the first Expeditionary Lab – Mobile in July, as part of its effort to cut down the time it takes for innovations to reach the field, Military.com reported <http://www.military.com/daily-news/2012/08/17/mobile-labs-build-on-the-spot-combat-solutions.html?comp=1198882887570&rank=1> . A second lab is expected to arrive in the fall.

The REF has been accelerating the delivery of equipment to the field for 10 years, but until now the process often depended on needs statements for new gear, a process that could take months. The new labs, made of 20-foot shipping containers equipped with lab gear, prototyping machines, 3D printers and other manufacturing tools, would be operated in the field and can greatly shorten the process, officials told Military.com.

Two engineers work in the lab and are connected via satellite to as many as 6,000 other engineers who can help in designing prototypes.

REF Director Col. Peter Newell told Military.com that some of the best ideas for new gear come from soldiers in the field, but they’ve often had to wait until returning to the United States to present their ideas to engineers. Now, they can start and finish some projects on location…

Generally, the process begins with a computer-aided design file which is separated into layers of thin, horizontal cross-sections. The printers — which can range from small, ink-jet-like models to large, industrial printers — apply the manufacturing material in layers that correspond to the design, often through a nozzle or die. The printers in the Army’s expeditionary lab, for instance, can print plastic as well as steel and aluminum…

http://gcn.com/Articles/2012/08/23/3D-printing-Army-rapid-equipping-afghanistan.aspx?s=gcndaily_240812&p=1

Regards,

Bill Clardy

I can think of half a dozen stories to go with this. Technology outmarches preparations…

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