Category Archives: Mail

Mail 760 Friday, February 01, 2013

USS Dorchester and the Immortal Chaplains

This Sunday is the 70th anniversary of the sinking of USS Dorchester. Most famous for the loss of the Immortal Chaplains, the sinking claimed almost 700 others.

The Chaplains:

Reverend George Fox
Rabbi Alexander Goode
Reverend Clark Poling
Father John Washington

A prayer for those lost at sea:

FATHER of all Love, we pray Thee that those who are safe on land may ever remember the many who go down to the sea in ships, and that those in peril may contact with something of comfort. We ask these petitions knowing that Thy Love faileth never. Amen.

Antigua copyright free?

Now this should be interesting. Antigua is planning on hosting a pirate warez site in order to punish the US for killing their gambling business.

http://torrentfreak.com/antigua-government-set-to-launch-pirate-website-to-punish-united-states-130124/

I wonder if eBooks will be in the mix as well as video/audio stuff?

E.C. "Stan" Field

Heh. Well, if they annoy Hollywood enough then the President will send the Marines in to show them the salmon of correction, whap! I doubt the publishing industry has that much influence. Certainly authors won’t.

Doublethink

I saw, and thought to share, a grotesque example of doublethink in the mainstream media.  The Associated Press wrote an article on the U.S. jobs data:

<.>

The mostly encouraging jobs report Friday included one negative sign: The unemployment rate rose to 7.9 percent from 7.8 percent in December. The rate is calculated from a survey of households, and more people in that survey said they were unemployed.

</>

http://news.yahoo.com/us-gains-157k-jobs-jobless-rate-rises-7-135803757–finance.html

Did you laugh at "The mostly encouraging jobs report"?  Does this really work with people?  If it does, I’ll just have to use that.  "Well, Sir, the data on your investments is mostly encouraging with only one negative sign:  the value of your portfolio dropped by nine percentage points this quarter".  Or how about, "Yes, Sir, we have great news for you with only one cloud in an otherwise blue sky, we’re going to have to begin foreclosing on your home".  Or, hear this from your doctor, "Sir, your health is impeccable with only one exception.  You have a terminal illness and you have three months to live".  Come on!    What sort of idiot actually falls for this other than the eternal, unjustified optimist?

—–

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

We seem to be in a Depression although that is not what the economists say. Unemployment is not way up only because the number of people looking for work has fallen, and if you have given up seeking work and now seek benefits from government, you are not unemployed. There are radio and TV ads exhorting people to seek Food Stamps (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP); in California it’s a debit card called Cal Fresh); and it is counted as success if more take them. The number of people using food stamps rises monthly. This is not the way to economic recovery, nor is increasing government employment. I don’t say that government employees do not do useful things, and sometimes help create wealth, but with the present structure we have more than enough government employees; adding more isn’t going to increase wealth creation.

As to your question, someone must be falling for it.

microorganisms and carbonic acid

When I was a boy I was fascinated by "Ripley’s Believe It or Not!" and recall quite clearly reading one snip-it which claimed that scientists had found microorganisms which not only were immune to carbolic acid, but actually thrived in it. Reading your blog entry on the subject brought that to mind and a quick Google search turned up a number of such, including some which actually excrete carbolic acid (no doubt as a weapon in that species war on the rest of the microbial universe!). In fact, there are mention of microorganisms documented to survive the entire Ph spectrum from 0 to 13, and others who’s preferred environs include the interior of nuclear reactors.

Not that I’m suggesting that any of those extremophiles are "germs" which are also causing deadly diseases in humans – only pointing out that it’s far from impossible for a "germ" to develop an immunity to phenol. Nor am I passing myself as an expert on the subject, but for many years I’ve worked at a major metropolitan hospital and have been privileged to hear, first hand, the opinions, hopes, and fears of those who are. That in mind, I will caution you not to underestimate the little guys. To paraphrase Stephen Jay Gould: You can talk all you like about "the Age of Man" or "the Age of the Dinosaurs", but this planet is in "the Age of the Bacteria". Always has been and probably always will be…

Thank you for your time,

Carl E Campbell

IT Manager – Corporate Systems

NewYork-Presbyterian Hospital

Yes, to some extent I was teasing. I know carbolic isn’t universally deadly, but it is pretty effective. We used it a lot in the old lab I worked in.

I remember an old after dinner joke. At the end of an international science conference cruise, passengers in the first class dining room came up to the podium to say “Auf Wiedersehen! That’s goodbye in German.” Others came up, same thing. When it was the biologist’s turn he didn’t know any foreign languages, so he said “Carbolic acid. That’s goodbye in anybody’s language.” I heard that some time in the 40’s, and there was a science fiction story about an intelligent virus – sort of – in I think Adventures in Time and Space in which a biologist out of habit reaches for the carbolic acid when he fears contamination.

It’s still a pretty effective and fairly cheap disinfectant. If I have to go to hospital I think I’ll take some with me just in case…

Boffins slip ‘KILLER KOALA’ satnav study into journal

Jerry

“A confession: when Australians meet tourists worried their holidays will be disturbed by dangerous animals – sharks, spiders, snakes, crocodiles and jellyfish are all prevalent here in Vulture South – they often slip in a mention of a little-known but very menacing marsupial: the drop bear. The drop bear is, according to this Australian Museum page, “a large, arboreal, predatory marsupial related to the Koala.” The beast lurks high in trees, waits until it spots prey below – including humans – before allowing gravity and its sharp fangs do the rest.”

This article reports on a paper, “Indirect Tracking of Drop Bears Using GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) Technology”. The paper explains that drop bears cannot be fitted with satellite trackers, as they are aggressive and knock the trackers off when rubbing themselves against trees. Alternate methods are proposed:

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2013/01/31/drop_bear_killer_koala_science_fun/

Another mystery from the land of Oz.

Ed

I think this is the first I have ever heard of killer koalas…

Walter Russell Mead and "The Seven Trolls"

http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2013/01/30/life-after-blue-the-middle-class-will-beat-the-seven-trolls/

Well worth your time if you have not seen it.

Phil

An interesting essay. Of course there is hope for intelligent members of the middle class, and despair is a sin. Well worth your time. Thanks.

content

I miss the content as it was a few years ago. Interesting letters about damn near everything and the various answers and comments. Correspondents from around the world and subjects that were all over the place.

Now it appears (to me anyway) that the site is pretty well always focused on politics. Us V them stuff.

Or am I missing a part of the site that still does that.

Cheers,

Peter Durand

Sort of my fault. I have slowed down a bit, especially in the last few weeks. But I am catching up and thanks for the feedback. I will try to do better.

Nails it!

Bingo! …

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NyYYgLzF6zU

A talk by a legal immigrant citizen with some common sense observations on gun control.

‘Democracy, then, in the centralizing, pattern-making, absolutist shape which we have given to it is, it is clear, the time of tyranny’s incubation.’

<http://www.americanthinker.com/2013/01/the_lupine_socialist_dream.html>

Roland Dobbins

The modern affection for ‘democracy’ is fairly new, and most political philosophers believed that democracy was suitable only for rather small and homogenous states, such as the Swiss Lander cantons, and city states. Cicero observed that under democracy the exceptional could not thrive properly and are tempted to use their talents for their own ends, not those of the general good. Of course Cicero is one of the more eloquent proponents of “the Republic”, the form of government that mixes monarchy, aristocracy, and a democratic element; and it is explicitly this that the Framers of the Convention of 1789 hoped to establish.

The problem with democracy has ever been envy. Voting to distribute the goods of fortune among the voters is a strong temptation. It seldom works to the permanent interest of those who use government to despoil the rich, or limit the rewards of the very able. Sometimes the aristocracy finds more in common with those of similar rank in a foreign country than they do in their own. (See the La Grande Illusion for a more dramatic presentation.) Sometimes the wealthy simply hire a ‘friend of the people’ to look out for their interests – you will remember that the First Triumvirate consisted of Pompey, Caesar, and the richest man in Rome. And despite all the protestations about the origin of the maxim that democracies do not long survive the discovery by the masses that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury, it is a valid hypothesis, often confirmed. “There never was a democracy that did not commit suicide.”

‘The new general has all the problems of an empire, without any of the power and freedom of action of an empire.’

<http://sultanknish.blogspot.com/2013/01/youre-in-new-army-now.html>

Roland Dobbins

The ultimate question of any polity is who does the army obey? That is not a trivial question. Why men fight – now I suppose we are to say why men and women fight – is the ultimate question of political power. For two centuries the United States has been served by an officer corps that put Duty, Honor, Country first, and was able to win the loyalty of the troops. This has been so effective for so long that no one wonders why, or whether our egalitarian insistence will have an effect on the motives of the officer corps. Other nations have discarded the principles to their detriment. We of course are the great exception and our political leaders are, or are convinced they are, exempt from these kinds of questions.

The Amazing Amazon

Somewhat terrifying. I like Amazon a lot, but.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2013/01/29/amazon_q4_profits_fall_45_percent.html

I recall when the standing joke among computer columnists was “next year Amazon will make a profit”. For a long time Amazon invested in structure and organization. Then suddenly they made their move, and the publishing industry was changed forever. And meanwhile Amazon went on to use their book selling mechanisms to sell other things, many other things, until they challenge the whole retail marketing establishment.

Now they are investing again in organization and structure. Think about it.

BSR Review New Music Concert

A review of a concert devoted to chamber music by a young Philadelphia composer, Michael Djupstrom.

http://www.broadstreetreview.com/index.php/main/article/michael_djupstroms_contemporary_pieces/

Tom

…and the PULP–O-MIZER link (!)

http://thrilling-tales.webomator.com/derange-o-lab/pulp-o-mizer/pulp-o-mizer.html

Roger G. Smith

BBC News – Phantom comics reissue keeps early masked hero alive

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-21266631

Thought you might enjoy!

John Harlow

I have long been a fan of The Phantom. I even liked (not wildly) the movie they made about him. The Ghost Who Walks will never die…

Substitute Teacher – YouTube

Jerry

Speaking things we cannot talk about, there is this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dd7FixvoKBw

I don’t expect you’ll be posting a link to it, even if it appears to have been a sketch on TV.

That may be the most racist thing I have ever seen. What is the story on this? It’s intended to be infuriating isn’t it?

Jerry Pournelle

Chaos Manor

Substitute Teacher – YouTube,

It is billed as Comedy Central. So perhaps Hollywood types can get away with this. After all, it is hitting the culture, not the race. I work with Africans from Africa. Their names are not what this piece is satirizing.

It may be another example of "If a conservative said it, it would be hate speech."

On the gripping hand, when I was searching for this (I deleted the link the first time it was sent to me) I found a comment by an African American woman who felt these names had gone too far. I was discussing this at lunch and a dietician recalled that at her former job, a mother was incensed when the dietician did not know how to pronounce her daughter’s name, La-a. It was "ladasha" of course.

On another level, it may be that the perpetrators of this were turning the tables on white folk, showing how their white names can be mispronounced by someone who does not share pronunciation conventions with the name-holder.

Hence "ehrun" becomes "ay-ay-ronn," etc. I particularly loved O-shag-hennessey. That one is choice.

I dunno, though. Could be all of the above.

It may be as informative as it is – interesting. I suppose it is a different view I had not considered.

I will note that the United States has thrived under the Melting Pot model, and just as we were beginning to assimilate the freedmen after a long period of segregation, the goal changed to ‘diversity.’ Diverity has not historically been a winning strategy. The early Roman Republic flourished by allowing conquered people to become Romans; it wasn’t conquest, they were taken into the firm, as Fletcher Pratt put it in The Battles That Changed History (one of the books I think everyone ought to have read). Recall Paul of Tarsus. “I am a Citizen of Rome.” “You have appealed to Caesar, and to Caesar you shall go.”

Diversity does not build successful Republics, or at least has not on my view of history.

Computer glasses and myopia

Thank you for the comments from January 24th about "computer glasses".

I recall your comments about correction to screen-distance from the original BYTE column but regrettably didn’t give them proper attention as I was still sufficiently young I had sufficient accommodation to read a screen with infinity-corrected glasses.

Anyway, my experience over the last 10 years has persuaded me that wearing glasses corrected for one’s primary distance of work not only reduces eye strain but, at least in my own anecdotal case, (documented in):

http://www.fourmilab.ch/documents/health/myopia/

actually reduces the correction required for myopia–my experience was a full diopter in each eye over 10 years, and I think I’ve gone a bit further down since the last examination in 2010 based on pushing my glasses down my nose to focus in dim light conditions.

My experience is based on wearing the "reading/computer" glasses almost all the time: using the infinity-corrected or progressive glasses only for driving, taking walks outside, or other activities where such correction is appropriate. Since I published this report, I’ve heard from around a dozen people who have experienced the same improvement in myopia prescriptions by wearing "reading glasses" most of the time, and none reporting contrary results (but of course this may be due to a selection effect).

If this exists, it is a slow effect. One should expect it to manifest itself only over several years. But simply getting off the life-long treadmill of every-stronger prescriptions is worth it to me.

John Walker               | If it’s settled

kelvin@fourmilab.ch    | it isn’t science.

I find my computer glasses (they are bi-focal) more comfortable around the house than my regular tri-focals, although I certainly don’t wear them outside and it would be a disaster to wear them for driving. I sure wish I had patented the concept. Probably wasn’t patentable. But I think that old BYTE column was the first place to talk about compouter glasses. Certainly I don’t remember any source for the concept, and I think I invented it.

Mail 759 Sunday, January 20, 2013

Subj: Federal Agencies we can do without: the Raisin Administrative Committee

http://www.thespiritofenterprise.blogspot.com/2013/01/orwell-watch-raisin-administrative.html

>>Did you know that if you grow raisins in the United States, you are

>>sharecropping for the government? …<<

Rod Montgomery==monty@starfief.com

Hardly needs comment… And we borrow the money to pay for this. Should we?

Dear Dr. Pournelle:

I share your concerns about the political dangers of a standing army; yet I also agree that SAC’s power to destroy civilization should not be in the hands of recruits. How, then, do we reconcile citizen armies with nuclear technology?

Jonathan Schell offers a partial solution in his book, "The Abolition", which proposes that the USA become a "latent" nuclear power; that is, that it dismantle all actual nuclear bombs, but retain(and indeed strengthen) its ability to swiftly build those bombs. We keep the know-how and the infrastruction and the fissile materials, but hold off on building the accursed things unless we need them right away. You could call it just-in-time civicide; like taking the bullet out of the rifle over the fireplace. Nuclear latency is purified deterrence; a way for America to say to the world that we don’t feel like killing a million people today, so don’t make us want to.

I like Schell’s idea, but I think it’s incomplete. It’s too rational, it lacks the aura of apocalyptic histrionics so natural to all things nuclear.

I therefore offer the following modest proposal: Nuclear Blatancy Day. It’ll work like this:

Every Presidential election year, college and high school students across the country submit their bomb designs. The winning entries are cast into metal and chips (but no explosives and fissile materials, of course) and sent to the Nevada Test Range. There the bombs are loaded with plutonium from the armory, and lowered deep underground.

The contestants arrive, and their families, and technicians, and generals, and reporters, and Presidential candidates, and foreign dignitaries. Also on hand are marching bands (pro-bomb) and satirical giant-puppet troupes (anti-bomb). Both groups are welcomed as essential components of the inherently mixed message being sent that day. The Presidential candidates speak blandly of the People’s Bomb; the grandmother from Hiroshima pleads passionately for peace.

The countdown starts. Five, four, three, two, one, zero! Suddenly new craters collapse in the Nevada desert. The marching bands cheer, the puppeteers boo, and the foreign dignitaries look at each other nervously. Technicians announce yields; the winning contestants get scholarships and job offers; and the dignitary from Japan quietly tells the other dignitaries that these Americans are indeed as crazy as they look, so don’t mess with them!

I trust you understand, Dr. Pournelle, that the preceding three paragraphs are satire; but they are a satire that would work. It’s absurd, but slightly less absurd than what already exists. I offer it to you as my fulsome praise, and also my excoriating critique, of America and civilization and the entire human race.

Sincerely,

Nathaniel Hellerstein

Schell wasn’t being satirical so far as I know. For myself I would not care to try to assemble the nuclear weapons after a nuclear first strike took out the plant and much of the infrastructure around it.

I have never been a great fan of MAD, but I was never able to find a way to do away with it. And I continue in my admiration of those young men and women who sat there in the silos day after day including Christmas  with the keys on chains around their necks as they waited for that damned klaxon. EWO EWO Emergency War Orders, Emergency War Orders, I have a message in five parts, message begins Tango Xray …

Conscription and service a’ la RAH and more on ITHAKA

Dr. Pournelle,

Heinlein’s discourse on conscription have been mentioned, but I thought we should also mention the kind of service he proposed in _Starship Troopers_. If I remember right, service was voluntary, but the "government" was required to give work to anyone who applied. Military service, in many different corps, was only one option. Citizenship was granted to anyone who successfully completed a single service term.

It sounds as if the recent proposal you cited was similar in some ways to the story. However, it sounds more like a way to grab VA-like benefits for any GS or WG job, rather than a way to self-identify individuals who place society at a high level of importance. It sounds as if we want to expand pensions and not limit the franchise.

I think we do need a legal decision to get changes to the distribution system for all federal government-paid documents. It should require a simple contractual requirement change for all funded study grantees to publish publicly via some acceptable means. It is a wonder to me that this is not in the law already. We need a congressional sponsor with some pull to get it across.

I really thought FOIA covered this. If ITHAKA and its subscribers are in violation, that needs to be shown, probably in court. I don’t know if this circumstance is truly the case, or who could bring a suit.

-d

Mr. Heinlein’s society in which only veterans can be voters would probably not be stable since it would require a bureaucracy to enforce it…  Why should I have to go to the trouble of FOIA actions to get access to documents reporting publicly supported research? Particularly since publication costs are generally part of every research proposal…

“His view was that standing armies became independent entities, and transmogrified into mercenaries…

And after that came the professional military, the volunteer forces, and the United States became the world superpower. So far that has not brought about the difficulties Machiavelli prophesied”

—————-

You think not? What I see is the military having to use other methods than the love of one’s country and patriotism to convince people to join. Funds are provided for benefits used for this purpose. Money to attract Soldiers? Is that not a mercenary army?

I can’t say I blame them. It used to be people honored the loyal soldier, now they do not, and the politicians consider them expendable for political purpose.

B

Aaron Swarz was a self-confessed Chomsky disciple, FYI.

<http://www.aaronsw.com/weblog/epiphany>

While I deplore the routine prosecutorial tactic of gross overcharging in general, especially for nonviolent offenses; and while I’m opposed to the ITHAKA monopoly on the fruits of publicly-funded research, I don’t have that much sympathy for Aaron Swarz. He strikes me as a soi-disant ‘activist’ lacking the courage of his supposed convictions, once that it wasn’t all fun and games, anymore, and who was willfully naive of how the legal system works (there was no way he’d end up in prison for any large amount of time based upon an initial conviction, much less on appeal), and who settled upon legal representation by an attorney who has a good reputation, but who wasn’t the best selection for this particular set of circumstances, IMHO.

I will admit that this whole sorry episode, and others like it, lead one to the conclusion that the minimization or outright elimination of public prosecution and prosecutors in favor of private prosecution might well be worthy of consideration.

Roland Dobbins

I never met Mr. Swartz and I haven’t spoken to any of his intimates. I am more concerned that there was no trial. I would like to see a good reason for ITHAKA to have this monopoly.

Aaron Swartz — an opposing view

Dr. Pournelle,

I am related to someone who reported recently on Aaron Swartz in a paper for classwork. Her take on his case was somewhat different. The man reportedly was guilty of breaking and entering, wiretapping, and vandalism — the last by locking (preventing the use of) the files by their owners.

After Swartz’ activity was detected and measures were put in place to prevent access, he escalated his efforts while in full knowledge of the penalties if detected and prosecuted.

The ITHAKA service obtains exclusive use of academic documents legally and maintains an electronic library, at no small expense, for institutional subscribers who are mostly the same as the contributors.

Swartz interviews indicated he was less motivated by freedom of information than by grabbing attention for himself. He was indifferent to the cost of his activity to the the lawful users and owners of the information, and had no concern for the direct effect of his actions.

While one should not speak ill of the dead, and he may have had a point freedom of access to government-sponsored information, I’m personally convinced that the prosecution wasn’t excessive. If his legal defense was unsuccessful in reducing the sentence further, he probably should have sought more competent counsel — as you say, he would have found many willing to support that effort.

In my experience, it takes a really small effort to obtain access to government sponsored data via the freedom of information act, and in most cases taxpayers foot the bill for production of that information to the requestor. Swartz attacks were focused on an information outlet with which he had a personal gripe. He was certainly making a poor point the hard way. Perhaps he came to realize this.

-d

Why should it take any effort at all? And I assure you that unless you are part of academia, access to many journals is quite expensive. They are behind efficient pay walls.

Subj: Is there something in Massachusetts that deranges prosecutors?

The recent Aaron Swartz case is not the first time a prosecutor in Massachusetts has run amok. Remember the Amirault case:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704281204575003341640657862.html

>>[S]o much testimony, so madly preposterous, and so solemnly put forth

>>by the state. The testimony had been extracted from children, cajoled

>>and led by tireless interrogators.<<

Rod Montgomery==monty@starfief.com

This may be the first time since the President took office that I agreed with a quote I saw from his press secretary —

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/obama-unveils-gun-control-proposals/2013/01/16/58cd70ce-5fed-11e2-9940-6fc488f3fecd_story_2.html

“Most Americans agree that a president’s children should not be used as pawns in a political fight,” press secretary Jay Carney said. “But to go so far as to make the safety of the president’s children the subject of an attack ad is repugnant and cowardly.”

The President’s children ought to have security because they are exposed to greater risks than the average school child and the consequences to the country are greater if something happens to them that takes away his (and of course everyone else’s) attention from keeping the country running.

–Mike

It’s about time people learned to turn the politicians’ own bullshit back on them; when people learn to use courts and laws in this way I suspect we’ll see some changes in how government does business:

<.>

A petition calling for the elimination of armed guards “for the President, Vice-President, and their families” has met and exceeded the previous threshold set by the White House on their We The People petition submission site. 

The petition states: “Gun Free Zones are supposed to protect our children and some politicians wish to strip us of our right to keep and bear arms. Those same politicians and their families are currently under the protection of armed Secret Service agents. If Gun Free Zones are sufficient protection for our children, then Gun Free Zones should be good enough for politicians.”

Although it will likely receive only a glib response, the petition reaches its quota just as fervor over a National Rifle Association (NRA) ad pointing out this very same hypocrisy has erupted.

</>

http://www.infowars.com/petition-calling-for-gun-free-zones-for-the-president-vice-president-and-their-families-reaches-threshold/

I’m Joshua Jordan and I support this message!  I don’t know about you, but my life is worth more than all the politicians in the world; they think I don’t need guns?  Well, I disagree and so does the Constitution; but, since they want to take away guns, let’s take away the guns around them and make them happy. 

I’m sure that assassination attempts will no longer occur and politician will be completely safe if nobody has guns around politicians.  After all, we can just pass a law and that’s what will happen.

—–

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

Solar Prominence

Jerry,

The Solar Dynamics Observatory spies a beautiful prominence in UV. The time lapse video covers four hours

<http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap130115.html>

Regards, Charles Adams

Impossibilities in the world.

1. You can’t count your hair.

2. You can’t wash your eyes with soap.

3. You can’t breathe when your tongue is out.

Put your tongue back in your mouth, you silly person.

Ten (10) things I know about you.

1. You are reading this.

2. You are human.

3. You can’t say the letter ”P” without separating your lips.

4. You just attempted to do it.

6. You are laughing at yourself.

7. You have a smile on your face and you skipped No. 5.

8. You just checked to see if there is a No. 5.

9. You laugh at this because you are a fun loving person and everyone does it too.

10. You are probably going to send this to see who else falls for it.

You have received this e-mail because I didn’t want to be alone in the idiot category.

Have a great day. Laugh, and then Laugh and sing "It’s a Beautiful Morning " even when it’s not.

"Do not regret growing older. It is a privilege denied to many."

Molly

Robots doing work

Every year seems to get us closer to the reality of needing much fewer people to do work than we have. We’ve seen it in agriculture already where 1% now do several times the work that was done in the 1900s and with vastly increased production. On the other extreme, I’ve seen it in IT where one person can manage hundreds of servers that a couple decade ago would have employed dozens of people. I still can’t get my head around where this is heading in the short term. The collapse of the idea of majority employment?

Matt Murphy

This was once a fairly popular theme among science fiction writers. If we went from a majority of mankind working in food production and service to a very small percentage of them so employed in under a century, how long will it take Moore’s Law to reduce the number of highly paid workers needed for manufacturing to a very small number? The golden age of blue collar middle class has passed and it does not look as if it will come again. A $22,000 robot can do the work that three highly skilled auto workers once did – and do it two shifts a day for nothing like twice as much as it cost to do one shift. That’s on today’s market.

Over time more and more skilled jobs will be done by smart robots. And we do not much speculate on the logic of one man one vote in a nation in which most of the population contribute nothing whatever to the national productivity… Yes, I know, I must be exaggerating. Surely.

In Re Victory

Dr. Pournelle,

Had to look up the article quoted by Col Couvillon (forgive my possible mis-spelling). Found the editorial at http://strategicstudyindia.blogspot.com/2013/01/americas-strategic-stupidity.html

I think your and the Colonel’s observations are correct, but I think the author was taken out of context. While Bacevich may indeed be a U.S. apologist, I think that he was trying to state that faulty strategy — which did not include a military victory — was at least partly at fault for the failure to achieve any particular goals. He unfortunately uses language that appears to place the blame on the troops. I don’t think that is the author’s intent.

Perhaps the language is poorly considered, however, I don’t think that his position is too far distant from your own, or the Colonel’s, on this matter.

-d

This is interesting:

<.>

The U.S. Marine Corps, known for turning out some of the military’s toughest warriors, is studying how to make its troops even tougher through meditative practices, yoga-type stretching and exercises based on mindfulness. Marine Corps officials say they will build a curriculum that would integrate mindfulness-based techniques into their training if they see positive results from a pilot project. Mindfulness is a Buddhist-inspired concept that emphasizes active attention on the moment to keep the mind in the present.

</>

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_MEDITATING_MARINES?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2013-01-19-14-32-11

Alan Watts put it best when he described Buddhism and added "and when this gets mixed up in the context of Western ideas, Western science and so on it will do things the Asian people never dreamed of and might not even approve of".  I think this article outlines one of those "things" that Alan Watts mentioned in his lecture on the transformation of consciousness.  While some might consider it an irony, I am not surprised and this is not the first time someone tried this concept. 

In the Heian period of Japan the Sohei lit. "monk warriors"; "fighting monks" raised armies.  Interestingly enough, the Sohei were similar to the yamabushi lit "mountain warriors" in origins.  Yamabushi are often associated with ninja — and for good reason.  Ninja, however, did not raise armies; they undertook intelligence work and covert action.  The Sohei had much power, partly because it was considered bad to kill monks.  The Shohei were often influencial in Japanese politics and military affairs until just before the Edo period.  The closest thing we’ve had in the West to the Shohei are the Teutonic Knights or the Knights Templar.  As an aside, Himmler tried to make the SS into something like the Teutonic Knights.  Unfortunately for  him, the Nazis jailed and/or killed off any esotericist that might have helped them accomplish this as they were afraid of anyone who might have some power they could not control.  Most of Himmler’s scholars were deluded and the Third Reich never lasted long enough to create the SS Himmler would have wanted.  But, enough of history, let us speak of 2013.

I am most interested to see how this process would unfold with our military.  I might have advocated something this when I was younger, but realizing the quality of people available I am concerned at how this will be applied and what the results will be.  Also, if the Shohei, Templars, and Teutonic Knights provide a lesson for us, we could see a — if you will — spirit warrior caste of great power and influence.  I realize that this "goes too far" because I’m looking beyond the short-term and most people don’t think that you can look beyond the short-term with any degree of accuracy, but I proved such platitudes wrong many times over the years and I did not say this was a certainty — only a possibility and something we might take care to consider and monitor. 

Of course, if the Marines apply this concept on a mass scale we would find out if G.I. Gurdjieff’s hypothesis was correct.  Gurdjieff postulated that war — he often used WWI as an example — demonstrated an instance of mass psychosis.  Gurdjieff asserted that if the soldiers became aware — or "woke up" as he would often put it — they would lay down their weapons and return home to their wives and families. 

If Gurdjieff is correct then only certain war fighters would enhance their killing efficiency with this training; such war fighters would constitute the small percentage of humans with no inherent resistance to killing one’s own.  This inherent resistance is the major obstacle that prevents war fighters from killing.  LTC Grossman’s work on the matter indicates that killing occurs by overcoming this resistance, primarily, through group absolution, demands of authority, social distance, psychological distance, mechanical distance, cultural distance, physical distance, classical conditioning, and operant conditioning.  Grossman proved that group dynamics, symbols of authority, distance, and conditioning allow soldiers to deny the humanity of the enemy and kill them.  Grossman indicated — through quantitative and qualitative methods — severe increases in kill rates from the Civil War through the Vietnam conflict in a book, aptly titled, On Killing. 

I believe that it may be possible to create a hybrid training program that would bypass the "awakening" Gurdjieff might have expected, but I believe it would take more than what I’ve read here combined with what we have in 2013.  I believe Grossman’s factors are compelling and that one can use a more sophisticated approach than employed in 2013 to increase killing efficiency and lessen suicide rates through better selection and preparation of war fighters.  Still, I think this would work with war fighters that have the constitution for their work.  The Marine Corps seems to think — judging by the article — that more self awareness will afford that constitution for all trainees.  I don’t believe that, but I do believe that more self awareness will — through weeding out candidates without the constitution for killing — create a more efficient killing force and that is what martial science is all about. 

Another interesting part of this development is in elitism.  Per capita, very few Americans are or were members of the military.  These people already represent a small — one might be forgiven for using the term "elite" — section of society.  Military people tend to in better physical and mental condition than civilians and add a superior spiritual condition to this and you’re looking at a very interesting and powerful group of individuals.  How will that square with a society that seems more degenerate with each passing day?  I think we might do well to encourage — but not require — soldiers and veterans to work with civilians and the community to develop some of the traits and principles learned in the conditions the military imposed on them.  I think that would do a lot for our national power as it would help restore a sense of national pride, individual competence, and self confidence.  The rising influence of military and former military citizens might alarm some, but it could be a positive and helpful influence on our people from 2013 and on.  This could be incorporated in the awareness training discussed in the article.  After all, anyone who is aware realizes that they’ve never seen an organism without an environment or an organism that did not have others that looked similar.  As Marcus Aurelius put it, "We are made for co-operation, like feet, like hands, like eyelids, like the rows of the upper and lower teeth. To act against one another then is contrary to Nature, and it is acting against one another to be vexed and turn away."

—–

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

Jerry

On a lighter side of contemporary computer Security Issues check this URL site out:

Seriously? Google Wants to Go Green Lantern on Us to Replace Passwords <http://technorati.com/technology/article/seriously-google-wants-to-go-green/>

http://technorati.com/technology/article/seriously-google-wants-to-go-green/

Good heavens. Are we to boot our PCs with a ring and an oath aka Green Lantern?:

In brightest day, in darkest night,

I hope my PC starts tonight.

Let those viri trojans try as they might, Beware Google. Green Lantern’s light!

For those who weren’t DC Comic fans here are the full words for Green Lantern’s oath from Wikipedia:

Green Lantern is famous for the oath he recites when he charges his ring. Originally, the oath was simple:

“

…and I shall shed my light over dark evil.

For the dark things cannot stand the light,

The light of the Green Lantern!

”

—Alan Scott

This oath is also used by Lanterns Tomar-Re <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tomar-Re> of sector 2813, and Chief Administrator Salaak <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salaak> .[21] <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Lantern#cite_note-21>

In the mid-1940s, this was revised into the form that became famous during the Hal Jordan era:

“

In brightest day, in blackest night,

No evil shall escape my sight.

Let those who worship evil’s might,

Beware my power, Green Lantern’s light!!!

”

—Hal Jordan/Many Current Lanterns

I read Green Lantern when he first appeared, but he was never one of my great favorites. In those days his nemesis was wood, not yellow. I read lots of comics in the late 30’s and up to the end of WW II, but after that I shifted to science fiction and lost track. My favorite was Captain Marvel, and I was in love with Mary Marvel…

Kinder Egg inspectors

Just caught this article by Mark Stein from The Corner:

Choc and Awe

By Mark Steyn

April 24, 2011 8:55 A.M.

I am looking this bright Easter morn at a Department of Homeland Security “Custody Receipt for Seized Property and Evidence.” Late last night, crossing the Quebec/Vermont border, my children had two boxes of “Kinder Eggs” (“Est. Dom. Value $7.50″) confiscated by Customs & Border Protection.

Don’t worry, it’s for their own safety. I had no idea that the United States is the only nation on the planet (well, okay, excepting North Korea and Saudi Arabia and one or two others) to ban Kinder Eggs. According to the CBP:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pY0qsQXwXHo

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/men-busted-canadian-border-illegal-candy-article-1.1117071

Surprise!

Mail 758 Sunday, January 13, 2013

There is also a View today https://www.jerrypournelle.com/chaosmanor/?p=11443

Linear No Threshold Theory Wrong UN Admits – Media keeps Quiet

For 60 years the Linear No Threshold theory (LNT), that low level radiation is harmful, has been the foundation of the anti-nuclear movement. It has never had any scientific justification whatsoever and this has now been publicly acknowledged by the The United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR).

The fears engendered by this scare story have been directly responsible for the standstill in nuclear energy generation and thus in most energy generation overall in the world since 1970. Without that scare the world would be producing at least twice as much electricity and would thus be thought twice as well off.

Such paradigm shattering news is of massive worldwide significance and has thus been ignored by virtually all the world’s conventional media <https://www.google.com/search?aq=f&hl=en&gl=us&tbm=nws&btnmeta_news_search=1&q=unscear+radiation+levels&oq=unscear+radiation+levels&gs_l=news-cc.3..43j43i400.7688.25281.0.26016.28.5.0.10.0.0.453.2062.3-1j4.5.0…0.0…1ac.1.zB9GUOcFckk> with the almost sole exception of this from Forbes:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2013/01/11/like-weve-been-saying-radiation-is-not-a-big-deal/?ss=business%3Aenergy <http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2013/01/11/like-weve-been-saying-radiation-is-not-a-big-deal/?ss=business%3Aenergy>

Neil Craig

As far as I am concerned, the linear damage all the way down hypothesis was disproved years ago, and the balance of evidence strongly favors the theory of hormesis. The linear damage theory says that the dose make the poison, and even a little bit of radiation damage is too much; hormesis says that a little bit of radiation can actually be good for you. It does NOT state that if a little is good more is better.

We discussed all this years ago at http://www.jerrypournelle.com/archives2/archives2mail/mail311.html#hormesis

And more recently at http://www.jerrypournelle.com/mail/2010/Q1/mail616.html#hormesis

See also http://a-place-to-stand.blogspot.com/2010/03/radiation-hormesis-spreading-question.html

And in fact I have been writing about this since my days as science editor of Galaxy Science Fiction. There is a section on radiation hormesis in A Step Farther Out http://www.amazon.com/Step-Farther-Out-Jerry-Pournelle/dp/0441785832

But one need not accept hormesis to realize that the lowest levels of radiation don’t have much effect on large mammals.

And another long time consensus may be dissolving into something nearer truth:

Solar Variability and Terrestrial Climate

Dr. Pournelle —

An interesting press release on the National Research Council’s report, "The Effects of Solar Variability on Earth’s Climate."

Solar Variability and Terrestrial Climate

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2013/08jan_sunclimate/

The "consensus", if you will, of the workshop which generated the report is that even small variations in solar activity can have a significant effect on the earth’s climate. Some of these effects are thought to be through complex mechanisms. (Occam advised that things shouldn’t be more complicated than necessary, not that they should be simple.) (The report can be purchased or read and printed online.)

One of the statements that caught my attention:

"Indeed, the sun could be on the threshold of a mini-Maunder event right now. Ongoing Solar Cycle 24 is the weakest in more than 50 years. Moreover, there is (controversial) evidence of a long-term weakening trend in the magnetic field strength of sunspots. Matt Penn and William Livingston of the National Solar Observatory predict that by the time Solar Cycle 25 arrives, magnetic fields on the sun will be so weak that few if any sunspots will be formed. Independent lines of research involving helioseismology and surface polar fields tend to support their conclusion. (Note: Penn and Livingston were not participants at the NRC workshop.) "

On the other side of the issue, the U.S. National Climate Assessment and Development Advisory Committee has come out with its latest draft report in which it states that temperatures in the U.S. have risen 1.5 F since 1895 and will continue to rise 2F to 4F in the coming decades and that this increase is certainly anthropogenic. (I recommend Judith Curry’s website in general and her current -and no doubt future – commentary on this report. http://judithcurry.com/ , http://judithcurry.com/2013/01/12/draft-u-s-climate-assessment-report/#more-10910 )

As an aside, you have periodically mentioned the dragging of heavy cannon on sledges across the frozen Hudson River in 1776, Here are a couple of other events:

Jane Long wrote of surviving the winter of 1821-1822 with her three children (the youngest born Dec. 1821) and a slave, abandoned at a fort on the Bolivar Peninsula, in part by eating ducks and fish hacked out of the ice on Galveston Bay.

In February of 1895, local papers reported that ships at Galveston were frozen at their moorings and an errant mule was observed to walk from Galveston to the mainland on the ice covering Galveston Bay.

It doesn’t get that cold today. I, for one, am grateful.

Pieter

The facts remain. Although the media keep telling us that this was the warmest year in history, they don’t make it clear that “warmest” is a very relative term, and by any interpretation it was “not very much warmer” than the previous “warmest year” – and given that temperatures have been falling for years, it doesn’t take much. We really don’t have the means to get average temperatures over large areas to an accuracy of a tenth of a degree, even today with satellite measurements; and if we are trying to compare to temperatures taken back in the days of mercury thermometers, accuracies to within a degree are questionable.

The Earth has certainly warmed since 1895, which was about when Arrhenius did a back of the envelope calculation on what might be the effect of doubling the atmospheric CO2 and came up with the notion that CO2 additions from industry would create a greenhouse effect and raise global temperature. Since he was from Sweden he didn’t think this was necessarily a bad thing.

The actual rate of global temperature rise since 1900 hasn’t been greater than the rate of rise in the last half of the 19^th Century, and for the past ten years there doesn’t seem to have been much rise at all.

I am a bit astonished that there is not more literature on what might be the optimum temperature of the Earth. Of course what we have seems “normal” but might there be a better temperature?

But we don’t have much control over the solar radiation and sunspots, which may have more effect on Earth’s temperature than our belching factories. And for that matter there is more belching in China and India than in the US and there will be more to come.

See also http://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/jan/11/2012-probably-not-the-hottest-on-record-after-all/

HARRIS AND BALL: 2012 probably not the hottest on record, after all – Washington Times

Your argument has become main stream.

http://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/jan/11/2012-probably-not-the-hottest-on-record-after-all/=

Well , we will see…

NASA’s James Hansen Declared Obama Has One Week Left To Save The Planet! — ‘On Jan. 17, 2009 Hansen declared Obama only ‘has four years to save Earth’ — Only 7 Days left!

Obama Mission Accomplished! ‘Obama succeeded in reversing global warming’ Global Temps Cooling Over past 4 years

Alert: NASA’s James Hansen Declared Obama Has One Week Left To Save The Planet! — ‘On Jan. 17, 2009 Hansen declared Obama only ‘has four years to save Earth’ — Only 7 Days left! <http://climatedepot.us1.list-manage.com/track/click?u=87b74a936c723115dfa298cf3&id=0fc410c522&e=e57bd7cb9d> — UK Guardian Jan. 17, 2009 <http://climatedepot.us1.list-manage.com/track/click?u=87b74a936c723115dfa298cf3&id=c9d801d93d&e=e57bd7cb9d>

Obama Mission Accomplished! ‘In Jan. 2009, Hansen gave Obama 4 years to save the planet – and he succeeded in reversing global warming’ Global Temps Cooling Over past 4 years! <http://climatedepot.us1.list-manage.com/track/click?u=87b74a936c723115dfa298cf3&id=85b0cdcf7e&e=e57bd7cb9d>

Flashback 2011: Promise Kept – Planet Healer Obama Calls It: In 2008, he declared his presidency would result in ‘the rise of the oceans beginning to slow’ — And By 2011, Sea Level Drops! <http://climatedepot.us1.list-manage2.com/track/click?u=87b74a936c723115dfa298cf3&id=ea50a51c99&e=e57bd7cb9d> — Obama ‘presided over what some scientists are terming an ‘historic decline’ in global sea levels’ — ‘Obama should declare ‘mission accomplished’ and take credit!’

Climate Depot’s Morano: ‘It is just possible that Obama has powers and abilities far beyond those of mortal men — since sea levels actually cooperated with Obama’s pledge! <http://climatedepot.us1.list-manage1.com/track/click?u=87b74a936c723115dfa298cf3&id=114bb7762a&e=e57bd7cb9d> ’

Laugh Riot: 190-year climate ‘tipping point’ issued — Despite fact that UN began 10-Year ‘Climate Tipping Point’ in 1989! <http://climatedepot.us1.list-manage1.com/track/click?u=87b74a936c723115dfa298cf3&id=109f68b073&e=e57bd7cb9d> — Climate Depot Factsheet on Inconvenient History of Global Warming ‘Tipping Points’ — Hours, Days, Months, Years, Millennium — Earth ‘Serially Doomed’

National Journal: ‘Guns, Debt, and Climate Change Give Obama Shot at Immortality’ <http://climatedepot.us1.list-manage.com/track/click?u=87b74a936c723115dfa298cf3&id=9a089d025d&e=e57bd7cb9d>

Obama To Personally Take Control Of The Climate: ‘Obama may intervene directly on climate change by hosting a summit at White House early in his 2nd term, environmental groups say’ <http://climatedepot.us1.list-manage1.com/track/click?u=87b74a936c723115dfa298cf3&id=03be7b6c0b&e=e57bd7cb9d>

UN’s top climate official: Obama should deliver strong response to 2012 record-breaking heat <http://climatedepot.us1.list-manage2.com/track/click?u=87b74a936c723115dfa298cf3&id=bdffdfc4d2&e=e57bd7cb9d>

Obama ‘seriously considering’ hosting climate summit <http://climatedepot.us1.list-manage2.com/track/click?u=87b74a936c723115dfa298cf3&id=12d0528d1f&e=e57bd7cb9d>

Ralph Nader: You know what the U.S. needs? A brand-new $340 billion annual bad-weather-prevention tax The best solution for climate change is a carbon tax <http://climatedepot.us1.list-manage.com/track/click?u=87b74a936c723115dfa298cf3&id=b7b9de0bd4&e=e57bd7cb9d> – ‘With annual emissions of 6.8 billion metric tons of CO2 equivalents, the U.S. would collect $340 billion each year.With revenue like that, a carbon tax could be used to help balance the budget’

WashTimes: EPA busts private-sector budgets with rules that cost $353 billion: ‘The equivalent of all the wealth generated each year in Virginia’s private-sector economy’ <http://climatedepot.us1.list-manage.com/track/click?u=87b74a936c723115dfa298cf3&id=470ce90ed5&e=e57bd7cb9d>

EPA under investigation for skirting email transparency <http://climatedepot.us1.list-manage.com/track/click?u=87b74a936c723115dfa298cf3&id=a77701a0bb&e=e57bd7cb9d

We’re still here, too.

Apophis Asteroid May Destroy Some Satellites In 2029.

<http://gizmodo.com/5974708/apophis-may-destroy-earth-satellites-in-2029>

Roland Dobbins

And it will be back again in 2036. Perhaps closer still. At about 800 megatons, or 17 Tsar Bombas.

Among the many petitions submitted to the White House petitions R us program was one to commit to build the Death Star by 2016. The White House has answered the petition.

http://yardsaleofthemind.wordpress.com/2013/01/12/finally-the-administration-makes-a-foreign-policy-defence-and-financial-decision-i-completely-support/

Earth is getting greener (WSJ)

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323374504578217621593679506.html?mod=WSJ_hps_RightRailColumns

“Did you know that the Earth is getting greener, quite literally?

Satellites are now confirming that the amount of green vegetation on the planet has been increasing for three decades. This will be news to those accustomed to alarming tales about deforestation, overdevelopment and ecosystem destruction.”

* * *

"Mad Science" means never asking, "What’s the worst that could happen?"

–Schlock mercenary

I Will Not Despair

Dr. Pournelle:

I share your concerns about the future. Like you, I’ve read enough history, and lived enough of it, to recognize some of the warning signs. It “feels” a lot like 1933. Dangerous ideologies and nascent aggressors abroad. A messianic regime at home; drunk with ambition and contemptuous of those in the way of the bright new future. A shaky world and domestic economy. It would be easy to despair.

Do not! We may face a crisis which we cannot prevent. Many voices, yours included, warned of the dangers ahead and were ignored. Or worse. Articles were written, speeches made, stories told, of what the future could bring if we chose The Easy Path. Some listened, most did not. The Easy Path is seductive. Despair is also seductive.

I will not despair! I want to, but I refuse to! Despair is the surrender of the spirit in the face of adversity. It is the suicide of the soul. I deny myself the right to despair! I owe too much to the past and the future of mankind to succumb to it.

I will invert the placidity of despair into cold and thinking action. I will turn my hand and mind to limiting the effects of the coming crisis. I will work to preserve and protect what I can. I will warn those who will still listen; especially the young. I will enter the Wilderness Years unbowed. I will live long enough to see this version of the Easy Path die. I will make this the decade when Socialism died.

I will not despair.

Rick Crockett

Freedom is not free

Jerry,

Of all the things you have written and/or commented on which I have admired (and there are many), I think the one which has most impressed is the aphorism:

Freedom is not free;

Free men are not equal,

and Equal men are not free.

Though its truth seems quite self-evident to me, it is an astonishingly short and powerful argument against affirmative action and central planning. I do not recall that you ever attributed it and I do not recall ever having seen it before and so assumed that you had originated it.

But as Newton said: "If I have seen a little further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants." So I did a little looking. The aphorism has been attributed to quite a few people, including anonymous.

Friedrich Hayek (1899-1992), in his book, “The Constitution of Liberty”, (see also "The Road to Serfdom") wrote much the same thing, but less succinctly, than your aphorism:

From the fact that people are very different it follows that, if we treat them equally, the result must be inequality in their actual position, and that the only way to place them in an equal position would be to treat them differently. Equality before the law and material equality are therefore not only different but are in conflict with each other; and we can achieve either the one or the other, but not both at the same time…(W)here the state must use coercion for other reasons, it should treat all people alike, the desire of making people more alike in their condition cannot be accepted in a free society as a justification for further and discriminatory coercion.

Warm regards,

Larry Cunningham

I probably learned it as an aphorism from Hayek but I have known it for so long that I no longer remember how that particular formulation came about in my head. The sentiment has been known for a long time of course.

Freedom is not free.

Free men are not equal.

Equal men are not free.

The Spartans called themselves The Equals although they acknowledged dual kings. They submitted to the most stringent discipline and rules known at the time. The Athenians did not call the Spartans free.

"liberal" and "conservative" working assumptions

Dear Mr. Pournelle:

It occurs to me that one of the points of frustration between "liberals" and "conservatives" (I don’t think either of those terms are very useful) is that each tends to have its attention caught by a different range of data. Here’s an instance of "takers" which I found striking:

http://www.nbcnews.com/business/zombie-titles-haunt-victims-home-foreclosure-1B7933378

Apparently, it’s becoming less uncommon for banks to foreclose, evict the occupant, and then not follow through with the foreclosure. The bank takes the insurance and the tax write-off, and the former occupant discovers some time later (apparently, the bank is not legally required to tell them they still own the property) that they’re responsible for upkeep, taxes, etc., on a house they can’t live in and can’t sell.

To my mind, this sort of fully legal "taking" by institutions with economic power seems to amount to something like a blow against the social contract. This gets me angry, whereas selfishness and stupidity on the part of people with little economic power just reinforces my usual low opinion of the human race.

Yours,

Allan E. Johnson

Bunny Inspectors – update

http://bit.ly/UMfBAX <http://bit.ly/UMfBAX>

Colorado bureaucrats want compulsory life-jackets for dogs in pet centre pools.

Fair Warning: fascination alert.

I really like this.

http://inoyan.narod.ru/kaleidoskop.swf

B

Well I warned you

SUBJ: Carthage surrendered their arms first buffy willow

We all know "Carthago delenda est". Rome razed Carthage, killing 90% of its people and selling the rest into slavery.

But did you know the Carthaginians voluntarily surrendered their arms to Rome first? I did not.

http://www.americanthinker.com/2010/05/never_give_up_your_weapons.html

One more historical vote against gun control.

"Plus ca change, plus c’est la meme chose" – The more things change the more they stay the same.

Cordially,

John

Yes. I learned about that in 8^th grade world history. Apparently they don’t teach that sort of thing now.

And when we disarmed they sold us
And delivered us bound to our foe…

Dad hires online assassins to slay game-obsessed son:

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2013/01/07/chinese_man_assassinates_son_online/

I guess that’s one way to get the kid out of WoW.

Ed

An essay in respect to your stated views upon seeding the oceans.

TO: Dr. Jerry Pournelle, Chaos Manor.

Sir: The following is something I wrote that is probably too long to publish, but having thought about your highlighted item on seeding the ocean and your views on such I did at least feel motivated to A: Finish it the next day, B: Submit it properly in spite of how long it takes to get to the point it’s making.

Jaron Lanier is a sort of techno/computer "guru," even though he hates the word: http://www.newyorker.com/ reporting/2011/07/11/110711fa_fact_kahn?currentPage=all

I say "sort of", because the article mostly relates the difficult upbringing that he had, as well as initially enthusing upon how he is a computer visionary. But it also archly defines what a "visionary" often is: "a word that manages to convey both a capacity for mercurial insight and a lack of practical job skills."

It also illustrates, in some ways, how intellectual contrarians such as he often only decide to take a morally conservative position once they have fully explored the sheer gruesome extent of the damage that their initial enthusiasm has created, often far after the potential for remedy has been lost.

Worse still even than with Mr. Lanier, are people who were spoken to beforehand about the possible consequences of their actions, and determinedly, they ignored you. It is simply that, like Eeyore in a den full of Tiggers, if you are dumb enough to try speaking to them about their behaviour, you will not get listened to as a point of principle, since sunny positivity is always sought on the planet where they live. Lanier has this in his defence: He has woken up.

With him in mind, let us move on.

My problem with Bob Zubrin is he is Tigger: http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/336808/greens-attack-mariculture-robert-zubrin?pg=1#

I am Eeyore. http://io9.com/5952101/a-massive-and-illegal-geoengineering-project-has-been-detected-off-canadas-west-coast

It does not strike me as a good idea to be doing this for a lot of reasons, not the least of which involves Manatees, but which culminates an idea raised in the Ridley Scott film "Prometheus," which has been exhibited to much public confusion in the cinemas recently.

I would assert that the issue neglects a number of what economists might call "moral externalities" to the otherwise nice idea of seeding the ocean with any materials to create Plankton, aquatic life, and cause the absorbtion of carbon dioxide. Lurking in the background is a serious moral rubicon that has then been crossed, is hard to articulate, and yet is permanent in it’s effect. I think it is a quiet reason why Bob Zubrin is so keen upon the position that he is taking in regards to this matter, but is not going to admit to openly.

Manatees are creatures that live in Florida. The are universally loved by the state and the tourists that watch them, are herbivorous and are even, in the eyes of modern society, that most important of things: Victims. They are continually killed and injured by boat propellers, and suffer from habitat loss due to those rotten humans and their waterfront property developments. (Many of which are owned by President Obama’s notional Rich People.) I am sure that you understand the idea.

The problem is that they are also parasites. Freeloaders upon humanity even, and would have migrated out of harm’s way years ago were it not for an amazing phenomenon that nobody anticipated: Power stations.

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/nation/2010-12-28-cold-manatees_N.htm

http://www2.tbo.com/weather/weather/2011/jan/07/can-manatees-survive-without-warm-waters-from-powe-ar-16293/

On a cold night, Manatees LOVE power station water. We have created a situation where a species of creature is quietly dependent upon us for their winter habitat. It is not even as if their loss is one of extinction, they exist in numbers in the Caribbean and would long ago have migrated away as a deme, as they are nomadic creatures and their habitat has been slowly lost to urbanization. They have stayed because humans are providing them with warm water, and other humans now seek to manage them.

Thought: What moral duties do you eventually possess to organisms that are totally dependent upon your active intervention for their existence? It is different to a policy of not knowingly doing any harm and leaving nature alone, like we try to do presently, but now represents one which instead sees us literally actively intervening to create and maintain life?

Look how far this one got, found in the outfall of an oil refinery. I wonder how much that C-130 cost, in order to ship him back to Florida: http:// www.savethemanatee.org/news_feature_ilya_09.html

Although you are right about Bunny Inspectors, I think that I have gone one better than such, in that Federal Laws mandating that power generators have a LEGAL OBLIGATION to keep Manatees warm is an example of government that can be done without. If you are not happy with Federal Bunny inspection, everyone can at least exercise their right to only attend magic shows that don’t feature rabbits in the act, and eventually such nonsense stops. Good luck living without TECO’s electricity, however.

The problem is that this is what is going to occur with ocean engineering of the form envisaged. There is no method of managing the migratory patterns of, for instance, the great whales that traverse the region annually down to Baja California to calve. Will they be unaffected? In the presence of free food, I doubt it. Will the Killer Whales hang around, given the presence of such near shore life? We have seen an answer already in the article, and they are also keen upon eating great whale calves if they can find them….It’s why the larger whales travel down to the bottom of California, in that it gives their juveniles a chance at gaining some size before they migrate back north.

A broader, more distressing idea then follows: Consider the idea that having seeded the ocean, an assumption arises that anything that grows there is only present due to an element of human volition. This is akin to farming animals, and thus means the natural world is defined as property. Like with Samuel Maverick in the old west, any newborn cow that didn’t have a mark was one that he could claim was his. So it will be here, in that anyone fishing in "our" waters is taking "my" fish. Anticipate that the Haida Indians, having spent their money seeding their water to create their crop will quickly regard Killer whales, seals and ultimately any other organism who shows up in a boat as taking their livelihood. When it is considered how much fish a 30-strong killer whale pod can notionally hoover their way through, and how fishing grounds are known, I anticipate that presently animals and people will start getting shot. This is a pretty bleak view, but frankly a realistic one given the way that some parts of the world work when A Bonanza is flashed in front of them, particularly if it is to be found out of sight of the land in international waters.

To finish, by contrast to what these people are doing, I would emphasize that there are perfectly ethical methods by which it is possible to obtain all of the cultured fish and protein that the rising prosperity of the planet will demand. The one which I am familiar with is on-land aquaculture and aquaponics, which sees animals such as Salmon raised on land using tanks. It is commercially proven and it’s only impediment, the provision of fish meal, is lessened using modern developments in what is known as the "Floc" system: This is a system where phyto and zooplankton are capable of being artificially grown and used for fish farm cultivation, and so helps limit the ecological atrocity of fish meal production that had previously rendered aquaculture uneconomic. (As in, fish being pulled from the sea to create fish meal pellets….That are then fed to other fish for commercial sale in a fashion that made minimal economic sense when the overall energy expenditure to do so was evaluated.) This approach is now taking off as a field and frankly seems more moral.

What does the film "Prometheus" have to do with this? Some have criticised the film for problems in it’s written structure, and some of the extremely dumb decisions that the characters make in order to get the action going, but several minor details of the film are fascinating in terms of what the story is advancing towards.

For instance: Why is it a plot point/revelation that Merideth Vickers is Weyland’s daughter? But nobody else is aware of this? Put politely, it probably means that she’s illegitimate.

Why does the star map, that The Engineers have given to each ancient culture on Earth, lead back to a planet that is basically a biological research/weapons development facility? China Lake or Fort Detrick, in effect?

Why does The Engineer that they find in the hidden spaceship instantly want to murder the humans that have awoken it, resulting in the conclusion that the creature wants to destroy the life that exists on earth?

And yet why do we see, at the start of the film, and later confirmed the scientists, one of their number actually creating us?

They perhaps hate us because one of their number has acted without the consent of the community, and are largely angry out of the obligation that we now represent to them. One of their number has created new life, and others must now be responsible for it….And why should they be so obliged? What duties and sacrifices might this potentially involve?

Maybe that is why Bob Zubrin thinks that this is a endless debate worth avoiding, but if you consider his history, he has long stated that he thinks terraforming other planets is moral. I would not have a problem with such a view were it not for the fact that the fashion in which this act is being suggested is underhand. It is being done by a clandestine precedent occurring TODAY rather than a rational choice by those who eventually will possess such power, and I assert that he knows this. By turning our own planet into a "terraformed" environment of sorts, he is effectively advocating the idea that there is no moral justification against not doing so elsewhere. "We do it on earth, so why not everywhere else?" is the resultant argument, because it is the truth when we treat our own planet in this fashion.

The only problem with that is that there is potentially no justification for such an action beyond profit, as the Haida Indians seek, albeit dressed up in the language of "benefit to the environment," by a corporate promoter. The creation of life is thus reduced to an act of profit, and as this promotional website for the Prometheus film implies, the Weyland corporation serves as the hypothetical endpoint for such logic, conducting the Terraforming of new worlds for profit:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jb7gspHxZiI

http://www.weylandindustries.com/terraforming

It strikes me as being a long slow slide into moral sleaze. Backsliding your way into the universe going "what’s the problem!?" then suggesting "Well, someone will stop me if I’m doing anything wrong!" then "Awwww! Aren’t these Manatees cute. Slow your boat down to avoid hurting them!"

moving eventually to "We’re from the government and you may not build a housing development here," towards a finality: "Give us money to protect Manatees, and don’t ever question why you should."

A road to serfdom, perhaps?

Every step of that is logical, and has the possibility of occurring upon an even larger and worse scale than simply our own planet…As engineers, what responsibilities might we accidentally wind up acquiring? Just like that man you described in Kansas, who is now expected to pay child support for a separated, lesbian couple’s child, because he was the sperm donor.

Best wishes and thank you in advance for the time taken to read this overly long letter. I intend to renew my subscription but am regrettably short of money at present. Hopefully what I’ve written has been worth a read.

Yours sincerely,

Andrew S. Mooney,

Mail 756 Monday, December 31, 2012

Happy New Year.

Still more ‘fun’ with deciphering the ACA

Jerry,

I trust you and yours have been enjoying the most delightful of holiday seasons (or more politically incorrectly: Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!)

I am a disabled Vietnam Vet and, as such, am eligible for medical coverage from both the Veteran’s Administration and from Medicare. I presumed that these coverages would insolate me from the requirements of the Individual Mandate of the ACA.

I noticed however, that there was never a direct statement that Medicare and VA Medical coverage made one immune to the requirements of Obamacare. From what I was able to discern, it is clear that neither of these government programs cover ALL of the 10 areas required as "essential health benefits" under Obamacare. I became concerned and attempted to find an official statement on this subject.

When I failed to find such a statement….lord knows it may well be hidden within the thousands of pages of the ACA….I decided to go to the source and called the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS). I waded through their phone tree and eventually was placed on hold in queue waiting for a real live person. Eventually I got to speak with a real live person….but was unable to make them understand my question (disappointing!)

My next attempt was to call the office of US Senator Charles Schumer (known locally as "the Hon. Chucky Cheese Schumer". In spite of many attempts to both his D.C. office and to his local offices, I was never able to reach any of his staff nor even voice mail. Eventually, I sent email expressing my concerns. I have now been waiting a month for a response.

Next I attempted to contact my US Representative, Mr. Peter King. I succeeded in reaching one of his local staff to sent me to the voice mail of the DC staffer responsible for health care. Astonishingly, she called me back within the hour! She assured me that I WAS acceptably covered by Medicare and the VA. When I requested that she send me a clear statement of that coverage on the Representatives letter head, she said she would have to do some research but would get back to me shortly.

The following week I received a letter from Mr. King’s office which reiterated the fact I was covered. The relevant paragraph, however, reads a bit like it was taken from a draft of Through the Looking Glass!

It is a long paragraph so I will extract the relevant text:

"The Affordable Care Act requires that…policies….and plans cover a comprehensive package of 10 categories of items and services known as ‘essential health benefits.’ You expressed concern that certain government-sponsored programs…do not cover services in all ten specified catagories. This is correct; <emphasis added>…However, I can assure you that beneficiaries of these…plans will still meet the ‘minimum essential coverage’ requirement."

Hmmmm, sez I, plans that both do not meet the requirements and "…still meet the…requirement." and all at the same time! Mebbe the Red Queen can make sense of that, but not me!

Quite unsurprisingly, my follow-up request for clarification has gone unanswered!

I rather expect to have find the funds to purchase insurance from one of the ‘exchanges’!

Despair may be a sin, but are not all men sinners?

Warm and Holiday Regards,

Larry Cunningham

Welcome to the brave new world. Despair is a sin, but anyone can ask for grace.

Is this a surprise?

 

Clemson University student Nathan Weaver just wanted to put together a project to help figure out the best way to assist turtles in crossing the road. But he also ended up with a peek into the dark souls of some human beings. Weaver put realistic-looking rubber turtles, no bigger than a saucer, in the middle of a lane on a busy road near campus. Then he got out of the way and watched as over the next hour, seven drivers intentionally ran over the turtle, and several more appeared to try to hit the defenseless animal, but missed.

</>

http://www.heraldonline.com/2012/12/27/4507782/clemson-students-turtle-project.html

If the penalties weren’t so stiff, I’ll bet people would run over other people rather than slow down..

—–

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

Not really. Of course I am from an older tradition, which accepted that mankind is in a fallen state and requires both effort and grace. Obligations are not a popular topic for thought and attention now.

I’ve got a little list

Dear Jerry,

To the list of folks to fire (like "bunny inspectors") I propose we add "undercover kitty photographers".

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/23/us/cats-at-hemingway-museum-draw-a-legal-battle.html

Sincerely,

Calvin Dodge

Cutting government

Hello Jerry,

Maybe we should be careful what we wish for:

Bob Ludwick

A guy stopped at a local gas station & after filling his tank, he paid the bill and bought a soft drink. He stood by his car to drink his cola and watched a couple of men working along the roadside. One man would dig a hole two or three feet deep and then move on. The other man came along behind him and filled in the hole. While one was digging a new hole, the other was 25 feet behind filling in the hole. The men worked right past the guy with the soft drink and went on down the road.

"I can’t stand this," said the man tossing the can into a trash container and heading down the road toward the men. "Hold it, hold it," he said to the men. "Can you tell me what’s going on here with all this digging and refilling?"

"Well, we work for the government and we’re just doing our job," one of the men said.

"But one of you is digging a hole and the other fills it up. You’re not accomplishing anything. Aren’t you wasting the taxpayers’ money?"

"You don’t understand, mister," one of the men said, leaning on his shovel and wiping his brow. "Normally there’s three of us: Me, Elmer and Leroy. I dig the hole, Elmer sticks in the tree, and Leroy here puts the dirt back. Elmer’s job has been cut… so now it’s just me an’ Leroy. We’re saving the taxpayers money because now there’s only two people doing the job of three.”

Efficiency is important.

‘The Alabama prison system’s policy of segregating HIV-positive prisoners from other inmates violates the federal Americans with Disabilities Act, U.S. District Court Judge Myron Thompson ruled this morning.’

<http://blog.al.com/spotnews/2012/12/us_district_court_judge_myron.html#incart_river_default>

Roland Dobbins

Clearly we have too many people working the judicial system.

Bill Whittle doffs his suit and gets down to work spending an hour with a speech that sort of grew on him as he went on with it.

Bill Whittle "Where do we go now?"

http://youtu.be/TuL41ohlfZY

He explores options, even some ugly ones. He does not want to "Never Surrender" because it’s a slogan. He spends time to show WHY this is not a case to surrender even though times for surrender do exist, as General Lee understood at the end of the Civil War.

He explores the problem Romney had selling himself when he clearly had let the left set his definitions for him.

He explores the likely future starting with an explanation for why our revolution and the resulting Constitution reflected societal reality of the time. He explains that, yes, big monolithic government is the model for the industrial age with its big monolithic industries. The model for government follows, with a lag, the model for society as a whole.

Society has changed. It’s no longer monolithic when Fred can sit down to dinner, have an idea, pick up his smart phone, order 50,000 widgets from wherever, and resume eating all in the comfort of the new "Be Our Guest" restaurant/experience at Disney World. (Recommended for this who can make it there.)

The form of government will have to change to adapt to this ultimate decentralization. But it will take time. We’re now a minority. The last election proved that. We must do what minorities have always done in the past, look out for your own. Italians hired Italians.

Jews hired Jews. And so forth.

The video is long. It’s not fine tuned as most of his videos are. It is, I feel, worth the hour I spent watching it and the time I have spent since then thinking about it.

I am not sure he’s entirely correct. There are aspects of the Information Age he has not well considered. (One such is the utter lack of personal privacy that will exist shortly. The only privacy will be in being lost in the multitudes.) These may make his vision not work and the future different from what he’s expecting. BUT, the huge monolithic government model is, as he asserts, already DOA.

{^_^} Joanne

But smart people are not allowed to hire only smart people. What we need is equality. You must hire two incompetents for each competent, and you must pay them all the same. That is called fairness. Then you pay more taxes than those who hire no one. That is called your fair share.

China’s Buying of U.S. Securities

As I may have mentioned, I’m studying for a couple FINRA exams.  During the course of my study, a thought occurred to me.  U.S. government securities are traded on the faith and credit of the United States government, which takes real power from the U.S. government’s ability to tax. 

Why would China buy U.S. securities in such great amounts?  Would it be to put pressure on government to raise taxes; thereby, reducing revenues and productivity as we experienced, historically?  I believe JFK lowered tax rates and found that revenue viz collected taxes and productivity both increased.  Certainly, economic policies in the United States proved this point again and again. 

If China continues to buy U.S. government securities based on the pressures created then China plays a shrewd game.  The hypothesis makes sense, in some sense.  It also, poetically, reminds me of the Opium Wars.  We get them addicted to opium and now they get us addicted to debt…  The more I think about it, the more I think I might be on to something. 

—–

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

An interesting interpretation. Of course the US can simply devalue the currency for paying debts abroad, while allowing inflation as a means of taxing those foolish enough to save money.

Hm, nice idea that. But somebody’s already doing it less well,

Jerry

Here is a piece on “the increasing difficulty of actually deploying a new invention or innovation:”

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/12/31/biz_guilds_crush_newcomers/

The title is “Hm, nice idea that. But somebody’s already doing it less well,” and it is a discourse on why when we have innovation we are seeing a slowing of economic growth around the world. He explores the hypothesis that the answer lies in “the increasing difficulty of actually deploying a new invention or innovation.”

Ed

Or “Better is the enemy of good enough”, and maybe even of not quite good enough.

Be Careful Of That For Which You Wish

"Of course what most people want is another law. Once guns are banned, I presume we will have to worry about regulating hatchets and machetes."

Brits have been calling for a ban on pointed kitchen knives for years:

http://frontpagemag.com/2012/dgreenfield/british-doctors-call-for-ban-on-long-kitchen-knives-to-end-stabbings/

They’re hell-bent on turning the U.K. into the world’s largest group home for the developmentally disabled.

There is no shortage of people here with the same goal.

Chris Morton

Rocky River, Ohio

And when we disarmed they sold us,

And delivered us bound to our foes…

SUBJ: TSA: They Steal Anything

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2210314/Ex-TSA-agent-reveals-epidemic-thefts-passengers.html

Now who would ever have suspected that?

"Although we cannot rule out the possibility that our results are driven by misreporting, our results imply that over the very short run, the death rate may be highly elastic with respect to the inheritance tax rate."

<http://www.cnbc.com/id/100341727>

Roland Dobbins

For some reason, revenues are almost always lower than those who want to raise taxes to get more money predict they will be. One might think this a complicated affair given that legislatures never seem to know it.

Life in the ‘world’s largest democracy’.

<http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/UP-rape-victim-raped-by-cops-probing-case/articleshow/17748777.cms>

Roland Dobbins

The framers never thought that democracy was a desirable form of government. We seem to be expierimenting with it now.

“We should be upset. This is a terrible blow to general relativity.”

“In the absence of data, theorists thrive on paradox.”

<https://simonsfoundation.org/features/science-news/mathematics-and-physical-science/alice-and-bob-meet-the-wall-of-fire/>

Roland Dobbins

Better Than Human

Jerry

This guy is looking ahead to robots replacing most people’s jobs:

http://www.wired.com/gadgetlab/2012/12/ff-robots-will-take-our-jobs/

“To train the bot you simply grab its arms and guide them in the correct motions and sequence. It’s a kind of “watch me do this” routine.” Sound like the robots Robert predicted in Door Into Summer, long ago.

If the main prediction is correct, then shall we end up like the people in Fred Pohl’s “The Midas Plague?”

Ed

There are two aspects to economics, production and distribution. Distribution through sheer entitlement has plenty of problems, but if production is simple and efficient — of course so far it never is. But it’s a lot easier to distribute a big pie than a small one.

‘Global warming’ strikes again.

<http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2252180/US-Weather-White-Christmas-nearly-half-Americans-storm-rumbles-nation.html>

Roland Dobbins

I believe that despite the warnings about how hot it was, the actual temperature in 2012 was about the same as the previous year, and the long flat to cooling trend continues. Probably not for all that long. But the models won’t tell us. Russell Seitz points out that we are getting more reliable data as time goes by.

SpaceX’s reusable rocket lifts cowboy into the air and lands back on its feet,

Jerry

Private industry in the guise of SpaceX has reinvented the reusable rocket hopper:

http://www.tweaktown.com/news/27458/spacex_s_reusable_rocket_lifts_cowboy_into_the_air_and_lands_back_on_its_feet/index.html

I liked your DC-X better, though. This one looks awfully tippy.

Ed

Dr Pournelle

DCX reborn. <http://www.newspacejournal.com/2012/12/24/grasshopper-hops-ever-higher/>

Merry Christmas.

Live long and prosper

h lynn keith

Nine Carriers at Norfolk

Jerry,

Nine Carriers are at Norfolk. All I can say is wow!

<http://www.readability.com/read?url=http%3A//blogs.defensenews.com/intercepts/2012/12/home-for-christmas-9-flattops-at-norfolk-dec-20-2012/>

Regards, Charles Adams, Bellevue, NE