Monday, February 27, 2017
Any scientific consensus without Freeman Dyson is no consensus.
Jerry Pournelle
Bill Nye ‘The Science Guy’ Says ‘Climate Deniers’ Suffer Psychological Delusions
He repeated that in an interview with Tucker Carlson on Fox News Monday night. [See next item, post by Scott Adams.] He insisted there is no way to question the massive evidence for manmade climate change. Asked what it would be like if humans had not interfered with the climate cycle, he cited wine and grapes in England as easily observed evidence. There was no such grape crop in England/Scotland in 1790.
But this raises the question: weren’t there grapes in England and Scotland during the Medieval Warm – Viking times? All the evidence I know shows that in England and across Europe climate condition were much warmer. There may not have been grapes in Iceland and Greenland, but there certainly were dairy farms. After the first quarter of the 14th Century it began to get colder.
http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/lia/vikings_during_mwp.html
Vikings grew barley in Greenland
http://sciencenordic.com/vikings-grew-barley-greenland
And of course the Viking settlements in modern Nova Scotia were called Vinland for the crop grown there. We have only proxy information concerning the actual temperature in the Medieval Warm period, but we do have records of growing seasons in the Northern Hemisphere from European monasteries and Chinese mandarins. Apparently those who look at that data are Deniers in need of mental health counseling for their own good. Bill Nye the Science Guy is nearly convinced of it.
He is also convinced that we can measure the average annual temperature of the Earth to a tenth of a degree, although I doubt he has the instruments to determine with that accuracy the temperature in his back yard.
Added 1230 Tuesday 28 Feb:
Dilbert creator Scott Adams on cognition
Dr. Pournelle,
Scott Adams is blogging about persuasion and cognitive dissonance, and has also remarked on the Tucker Carlson interview with Bill Nye. See http://blog.dilbert.com/post/157823678756/tucker-carlson-induces-cognitive-dissonance-in . Worth your time, as I think Adams is successfully (perhaps courageously) introducing some rational debate into public discussion of climate change and of subjects associated with Donald Trump.
I often hear that a “denier” has little or no credibility because of an often tenuous link of some sort to the petroleum, coal, or nuclear industries. I never hear or read of any reduction of credibility of a media personality whose ego, reputation, and/or income is closely tied with environmental science. While it is not his obvious purpose, I believe Adams’ blog is exposing the ego bias in some of those advocates.
With hopes for continuing recovery for both you and Roberta,
-d
Scott Adams adds many points and links I did not feel up to adding, and his post says it all very well. A long time ago I got a Ph.D. in Psychology. I don’t get much use of it, but I did watching Tucker Carlson interviewing Bill Nye the Science Guy. If you have not seen it, Adams provides a link. Go read his post.
I woke up with a sore throat, runny nose, and all the other symptoms of a bad cold, and promptly went back to bed. Watching Bill Nye on the Tucker Carlson show on Fox tonight prompted me to get this much out, but me heart isn’t in it. More another time. [1230 28 Feb: not improving much. Sorry.}
More magnetic coolness
I’m not sure yet what, if anything, this might say about solar activity at this time, but it’s pretty darn interesting.
http://www.space.com/35745-earth-magnetic-field-spike-ancient-times.html
~Stephanie Osborn, “The Interstellar Woman of Mystery”
Ninth Circuit:
“Rather than present evidence to explain the need for the Executive Order . . .”
The law — 8 USC 1182(f), to be precise, places no obligation on the President to “present evidence to explain the need”. To whom, pray, would he present the evidence?
Just askin’, you know.
Moreover, I read the EO. It makes no mention of religion of any kind. Those who have introduced that meme have simply created their own straw man. You’d think that Trump’s legal team would have noticed.
Richard White
If you find out, let me know. I find no Constitutional role for the judiciary in foreign affairs.
Dr Pournelle
RE: Limits of executive orders
Chuck: “I think you are nearly alone in that opinion.”
I assure you that you are not alone.
In the matter of seeking a court to intervene, it is apparent that forum shopping was in play. Had the issue been tried in the 11th Circuit, who would wager the result would be the same?
Live long and prosper
h lynn keith
On Consensus
Hello, again, Dr. Pournelle –
I read in your Feb 17th Chaos Manor about “consensus” and could not recall if I had sent you my piece on an observation made from watching an episode of Neil deGrasse Tyson’s version of Cosmos on Consensus;
In this episode, Sisters of the Sun, he showcased the women of astrophysics, those women at Harvard who worked for Pickering in classifying stars; they were called “computers.”
Tyson told the story of Cecilia Payne whose doctoral thesis, “Stellar Atmospheres, A Contribution to the Observational Study of High Temperature in the Reversing Layers of Stars,” correctly identifies the composition of stars.
At the time, the accepted wisdom – the “consensus,” if you will – was that the composition of stars was similar to that of Earth. Payne concluded that this was not so; that hydrogen, for example, was a million times more abundant.
When she submitted her paper to Henry Russell, an astronomer of note at Princeton, he convinced her to not make such a conclusion, so she succumbed to popular pressure – again, the “consensus” – and modified her paper accordingly, admitting that something must be wrong with her analysis.
However, the fact is, Payne was right and the consensus was wrong. But, because the consensus was popular, science accepted it as the Truth.
We have “climate change” rammed down our throats because of the hallowed “consensus.” Not because of any PROOFS, but merely because it’s popular.
Those who question the validity of this popularity are shunned, ridiculed, ostracized, even called to be killed.
Why?
Because those who support man-made “climate change” can prove what they claim?
Not in the least.
Because it’s “popular;” there’s a “consensus.” Skepticism, the foundation of science, is ignored.
Well, as the story of Cecilia Payne demonstrates, just because there’s “consensus,” doesn’t mean it’s right.
My apologies, if I’ve already sent this to you, but the current Chaos Manor reminded me of it.
Keep up the excellent work!
Cam Kirmser
Jimmy Dore may be starting to “get it”.
Jimmy points out the real story in Mike Flynn resignation is the CIA leaked the transcript
of Flynn’s phone call. But Jimmy doesn’t grasp the full gravity of the situation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7xxSwH8B31w
The CIA/NSA spies on everybody including Congress, the President, and foreign allies.
Rogue elements of the CIA/FBI/Mossad are really in control of everything and have been
since the JFK assassination. They have their own air force.
That’s why Obama started out as Mr. Hope and Change but quickly knuckled under because
“They” have dirt on everybody and can quickly destroy anybody with covert leaks.
I have a suspicion that Obama’s cold Israel policy was because of 9/11.
The Mike Flynn event is “They” are announcing that “They” are in control and there’s
nothing anybody is going to do about it. “They” are recording everybody. “They” can
follow every credit card purchase, ez-pass, National Automatic License Plate Scanners,
and now the new “Find out what your DNA is and where you come from!” deal.
(Like that’s not all winding up in the FBI Database) Even if you pay with cash but use
your store savings card at the pharmacy or grocery store. Google searches…
Welcome to the future. It is what it is and there’s no going back.
Trump is a real threat to expose and take them all down. Obama wasn’t powerful enough.
CNN and the other mainstream media outlets are the mouthpiece of “They”.
MSM is a relentless assault on Trump and promote protests as a distraction from the
Clinton/Wiener/Podesta/Comey/Lynch episode.
Trump is the enemy of the Republicans and Corporate Democrats. The progressives
might want to think of getting behind Trump as he’s the only hope of real change.
Obama was happy to get out of Dodge in one piece and did everyone a favor not
pardoning Hillary or anyone in the CF.
Jimmy’s great piece on the Mike Flynn situation;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7xxSwH8B31w
Svabo
Since Flynn knew the call was monitored; why did he misreport it? And why is there no effort to find the career intelligence people who leaked the story?
Subj: Drain the swamp or …
… pump out the septic tank?
Or maybe tank_s_ plural: Department of Justice, Directorate of National Intelligence, Environmental Protection Agency, …
Rod
This article should cheer you up.
BTW, I watched Pres Trump’s presser today. He ate the MSM for lunch.
—
Phil
Doctors who now must kill
Dear Jerry:
I sent you an e-mail on 1/27/2017 with the Subject line “Doctors Who Kill.” It was a bit long, and you didn’t post it, but here is a followup inspired by the latest news about doctors who kill, even against your will.
In my original e-mail I pointed out that increasingly doctors and other medical professionals are being required to kill human beings as part of their training.
An inevitable result when government and medical schools compel doctors to kill is that doctors will conclude that they ought to kill. They must inevitably come to believe that killing their patient is not only morally acceptable but in fact that killing is morally required.
Dr. John Patrick tells a story about Dutch doctors in his lecture “Do No Harm and Patient Autonomy: What to Do When They Clash” presented at the University of Minnesota on 9/18/2015.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8lLA9yd-LUA
He recounts how Dutch doctors during World War II chose to go to concentration camps rather than kill disabled children and adults.
(Beginning at about 24 minutes 55 seconds into the lecture). They beat Hitler because he needed the Dutch doctors to look after his army. So Holland was one of the few countries in the 3rd Reich that actually had some disabled people at the end of the Second World War.
Then a couple of generations later Holland became the first country in the world to kill patients. They have published protocols for killing children in no immediate danger of death because the physician judges that their lives are not worthy of being lived, the phrase the Germans used.
And now today we read that a doctor in The Netherlands ordered a woman’s family to restrain her while he administered a lethal injection against her will.
We see that the killing of patients has been redefined as medical progress.
Dr. Patrick mentions two readings that will interest those of your readers who suspect that at some time they will be ill and in the care of a physician. Others may be dealing with their fellow humans whose ideas of justice differ from their own.
The first reading is the book
“What We Can’t Not Know: A Guide” by J. Budziszewski
< (December 6 No. 1979, Vol. Journal?, Law ?Duke Law?, Unnatural Ethics, Unspeakable>
http://scholarship.law.duke.edu/dlj/vol28/iss6/1
(The volumes were renumbered after publication.)
To these I add Dr. Patrick’s lecture
“Should your Doctor Have the Power to Kill You?”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7yvx29JFOrQ
and the John Patrick and Peter Singer Debate at University of Michigan in 2010. Singer confers almost god-like powers on doctors, imagining that they can predict the date and time of death with great accuracy. I have experience with several friends and relatives said by doctors to be on their death beds. I learned that doctors do not know within years when someone will die.
http://www.centrestreetumc.com/Augustine.htm
Best regards,
–Harry M.
Disturbing. Needs more comment, but I have not enough energy. Thanks.
Refreezing the Arctic ice Jerry,
Here’s a proposal to DO SOMETHING about the melting of the Arctic ice by building ten million wind driven water pumps to circulate arctic sea water and cause it to refreeze. That this idea is unaffordable at $500 billion and will have unforeseen consequences does not seem to have occurred to anyone involved. Hopefully, no one will take this seriously…
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/12/plan-to-refreeze-arctic-before-ice-goes-for-good-climate-change
Regards
Brian
But it does show we are not helpless; what manmade climate change can do, a civilization with enough energy can undo. If we have the energy.
Covert action
Hello Jerry,
The entire intel system of the US is apparently operating in a wartime mode. That includes the SIGINT and HUMINT resources, the covert action apparatus, and its MSM propaganda arm which, until the downfall, of Hillary traditionally supported our enemies and excoriated our intel services.
http://freebeacon.com/national-security/former-obama-officials-loyalists-waged-campaign-oust-flynn/
Unfortunately, the target of their ops is Donald Trump, his policies, and any person or organization associated with the implementation of them.
So far, they have proven more successful than they have against our foreign adversaries over the last 30 years or so.
Their unaccustomed success and the showering of accolades from their former adversaries has made them practically giddy.
Bob Ludwick
There indications that some of the permanent government does have that view. Certainly not all.
Dear Doctor Pournelle,
I highly recommend this talk by a leading Russian foreign affairs analyst on the current state of U.S./Russian relations, how they got where they are, why they are unlikely to improve, and why not.
He identifies a key moment in the spring of 1999 when, a European capital was being bombed, and many Russian’s asked “Why the hell is this happening?”
The lecture itself is about 35 minutes, and is the best part, although some of the following Q & A is of interest.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cT_QKQ_AA4k
Petronius
Cheated and caught? or not?
Dear Dr Pournelle,
I hope you are doing well and that Roberta continues to improve.
Just a quick note about the email in today’s missive regarding climate change and the Daily Fail article, http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-4216180/How-trust-global-warming-scientists-asks-David-Rose.html
For balance (dontcha luv “balance”), a commentary from a rather more serious organization may be found here, http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/news/more-fake-news-in-the-mail-on-sunday/
The “Mails”, Daily… and …on Sunday, are well known fabulists – recently broadly prohibited by Wikipedia for use as a source, (if that means anything).
The London School of Economics however is a reasonably well respected academic institution. (The Grantham Research Institute is one of its research centres).
All the best,
David
Regarding your Monday 13th 2017 post
I have a couple of comments about your (very interesting, as usual) offerings today.
The first is that your mention of Baal worshippers is relevant, in that Islam appears to have at least one point of similarity to the worship of Baal. And that is the willingness of parents to sacrifice their offspring, admittedly at a greater age. What is the difference between throwing babies into a fire and strapping high explosives to children? Not much. Ditto the established practice of surrounding military targets with children.
Regarding economics: It’s a rather simple truism that money in itself has very little value. Paper money is (not very good) tinder, and metal money is of value only because of its metal content. Money in the form of magnetic domains in a computer somewhere has no intrinsic value at all.
As is well known, money is a marker for the claims of an individual (or legal person) to things of true value; valuable services, a person’s time, food, shelter, clean water, IPhones…
The trouble comes when money becomes a good in itself, and ever-increasing numbers of people (some with quite a lot of talent) make their living by manipulating money while producing nothing of intrinsic value whatsoever. My opinion is that such people are pure parasites on society. Parasites that occasionally cause great damage, as they did in the 1920s and again in the late Noughties of this century.Ian
history, sun and the weather
Dr. Pournelle,
You “wonder(ed)what a good student of legends would make of” the solar event at ~7500 years ago — a quick check makes that the approximate time of the theoretical black sea flood — when the Mediterranean “broke through” a natural dam at the Bosphorus, with a possible connection to the legend of Noah, or maybe Utnipishtim. Seems like the Old Testament or Gilgamesh may have you covered.
I think perhaps Dr. Jennifer Pournelle might have some interesting speculations along those lines. Seems like the in the documentary I watched the ancient cultures she was examining in present-day Iraq disappeared sometime along in that frame, too.
8000 years ago was, if memory serves, also given by some genetic scientists as an approximate time for the die-off of several human genetic lines. It seems as if there was a lot happening around that time.
-d
Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.
