A Weekly Mixed Bag Mail 20110918

Mail 691 Sunday, September 18, 2011

I have this recommended by a subscriber who did not sign the recommendation. You may find it amusing. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=973m9nIQ10k

The Iron Law at NASA

Dr Pournelle

re: https://jerrypournelle.com/chaosmanor/?p=1992

Amen! Preach on, Brother!

Lessee if I heard ’em right. They want a heavy lifter; the analogy on the highways is a Peterbilt. So what fuel do they choose for this truck? Nitromethane, drag racer fuel. Why? ‘Cause the stuff is tricky to work with and requires beaucoup special staff to transport, load, and unload it. And a safety team to watch every step.

Lessee. Space X’s Dragon uses RP-1 kerosene and LOX. Truck fuel, not dragster fuel. Blue Origin’s New Shepard uses RP-1 kerosene and high-test peroxide. Truck fuel. Bert Rutan’s SpaceShipOne used hydroxy-terminated polybutadiene (tire rubber) and nitrous oxide (laughing gas). Not truck fuel, but SpaceShipOne was a one-off vehicle made to win a prize. Virgin Galactic’s SpaceShipTwo uses . . . well, Richard Branson ain’t sayin’ but the smart money is on some similar hydride combo. Not truck fuel, but not dragster fuel either.

Mercury Redstone: ethyl alcohol and LOX. Truck fuel. Mercury Atlas: RP-1 kerosene and LOX (the Atlas is still flying). Truck fuel. Gemini Titan: hypergolics — hydrazine and nitrogen tetroxide (N2O4). Nasty stuff; definitely dragster fuel. This is where NASA departed the straight-and-narrow for the seductive attractions of high-ISP sin. Apollo Saturn V: RP-1 and LOX (first stage) and LH2 and LOX (second and third stages). Truck fuel to start and dragster fuel after that. Another step down the path of high-ISP perdition. Space Shuttle: ammonium perchlorate and aluminum (SRBs), LH2 and LOX (main engines), and monomethylhydrazine and nitrogen tetroxide (OMS). Dragster fuel with JATO and seriously nasty dragster fuel. NASA arrived in rocket fuel Hell. (Am I the only one who remembers the BFRC in downtown Santa Barbara? Surely not.)

We need a trucking company. Trucks use diesel fuel. NASA wants to give us a truck with a NHRA engine. Why? You nailed it, Brother. Jobs for the boys. Can I get an ‘AMEN’? Hallelujah!

The solution to the personnel problem at NASA was articulated by the Papal legate at Beziers.

Live long and prosper

h lynn keith

Heh.

And another, if unrelated, instance of the Iron Law at work:

“Orphanages had gotten used to getting money for international adoption, and all of the sudden they didn’t have healthy baby girls unless they competed with traffickers for them.”

<http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/18/nyregion/chinas-adoption-scandal-sends-chills-through-families-in-united-states.html?&pagewanted=all>

Roland Dobbins

An exception to the Iron Law

Dear Jerry,

I know of at least one exception to the Iron Law of self-perpetuating bureaucracies, because (I am proud to say) my father engineered it.

My father, John Edward Robb, was a crusty old, politician- and bureaucrat-hating, career Army Colonel, who was kicked off the fast track to multiple stars because he told the truth at an inopportune moment. He was the head of our training and logistics operation in Vietnam from 1959-1961, reporting directly to the commanding general of MAAG, and when his initial Pattonesque boss, Lieutenant General "Hanging Sam" Williams, with whom he got along well, was replaced by a misbegotten, self-inflated, ass-kissing toady, Major General Alden K. Sibley (later convicted of misappropriating military funds), and the program deteriorated, my father told the truth about it in his change-of-station report. That was the end of his military career, although he spent several years subsequently in San Francisco, first as the exec of the Overseas Supply Agency, responsible for tracking all Defense Department shipments from stateside bases to the west of the Pacific Coast, and then as exec of the Pacific Coast Terminal command.

Anyway, he then went to work for the state department, as the head of something called the Far East Regional Logistics Office (this was in the immediate post-Vietnam War years). The mission of this agency was to clean up the hardware left over from all our Pacific Wars, dating back to WW2 (my father finished that war as an an artillery battalion commander in the Philippines). Based initially on Okinawa, and then in Tokyo, he spent about six years flying all over the Far East investigating, demobilizing, and in some cases re-allocating military hardware to our regional allies. Then he concluded that the mission was accomplished and recommended its dissolution. Naturally this was strongly resisted, but he flew back to Washington, fought the good fight, and got FERLO laid to rest. I think he was as proud of that as he was of the work he did for its last six years.

I suppose that the moral of this parable is one of your favorite mottoes: despair is a sin.

John B. Robb

The moral of the story is that projects not set up as a bureaucracy can accomplish a lot. Then they go away. We won the Moon Race by building an Army. One can disband an Army, or one can convert it into a bureaucracy. The Iron Law applies to all bureaucracies.

Canada schools broken, too

http://www.forbes.com/sites/leapfrogging/2011/09/15/want-less-inequality-stop-subsidizing-schools-and-universities/

Calvin Dodge

Subject: Creator of TSA Admits Wants to Dismantle It

Ah, the Iron Law at work. The Congressman who wrote the law creating the TSA wants to dismantle the TSA. Guess what happened? The bureaucracy grew like a monster. Who could have possible predicted such a thing? Sigh.

http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20110913/10465415931/guy-who-created-tsa-says-its-failed-its-time-to-dismantle-it.shtml

—

Dwayne Phillips

I recall everyone saying that TSA would be temporary. Das Buros stehen immer.

‘So even though America exports excess dollars to China, China sends them back to finance the U.S. budget deficit — much like marionettes walking off one side of the stage, merely to reappear unchanged on the other side.’

<http://spectator.org/archives/2011/09/13/china-american-financial-col/print>

Roland Dobbins

Jerry,

Subj: The successor to the Attilla the Hun Chair

http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2011/09/17/hacker-makes-conan-barbarian-college-professor/?test=faces

The Lay of Horatius

Dear Jerry,

Thanks for your publishing work and comments on the Roman Lays. I will be presenting the Lay of Horatius to my sixth grade homeschoolers starting their second week of Roman history.

Best,

Barbara

There was a time when all educated people were familiar with Macauley’s Lays of Ancient Rome. Alas, what we have as common knowledge is more likely to be scenes from the Emmy ceremonies.

LA Porn Studio Begins Construction On ‘Post-Apocalyptic’ Underground Bunker « CBS Los Angeles

Jerry,

At least will still have pornography on the day after!

http://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2011/09/14/la-porn-studio-begins-construction-on-post-apocalyptic-underground-bunker/

This of course raises questions about the intellect of mainstream studios, the US Govt and the general public. Is this an example of evolution in action?

Jim Crawford

Now there’s a relief.

NASA Unveils Plans For Deep-Space Rocket

http://space.flatoday.net/2011/09/nasa-unveils-plans-for-deep-space.html

Same old over priced components. SSME’s, SRB’s (segmented of course), and stretched external tanks. Returning to a Saturn 5 type heavy lift vehicle, is great, but what they have proposed is not better than Saturn 5, just more expensive. I guess we can say it’s a step in the right direction.

There are other stories in this section (up one level). The "Liberty" crew resupply vehicle is built by the same old folks (ATK) and is a segmented SRB, of course.

Quote from the first article:

"Senior administration officials say the heavy-lift development program will cost $3 billion per year. That’s about the same amount NASA spent to run the space shuttle program in 2009."

and

"Administration officials said the heavy-lift development program would provide a “stable future” for KSC, Johnson Space Center in Houston, Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Ala., and Stennis Space Center in Bay St. Louis, Miss. – NASA’s four major human space flight facilities."

Pretty much says it all. Please understand that some of my best and oldest friends work there and are very good troops. They would love to innovate and do new things. You can always tell the good folks from the rest, they spend a lot of time trying to work around the system and actually get work done.

If they would give Space X a 3 billion a year contract….

Phil

la Niña

Jerry,

http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/enso/

a very strong La Nina is forecast for this winter.

Jim

But surely the models all take account of such things?

Snitch Society

The latest, laughable bill demands an email. I quipped about a snitch society at other points; the latest attempt is here:

<.> A new piece of legislation being backed by the National Association of Security Companies (NASCO) would encourage Americans to frivolously snitch on each other by providing legal protection for people who report “suspicious behavior” to the authorities.

“The National Association of Security Companies (NASCO) today endorsed the See Something, Say Something Act (H.R. 963), by Congressman Lamar Smith (R—21st District Texas), Chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, calling it sensible policy that expands protections against lawsuits for individuals who provide good faith reports of suspicious terrorist-related activity to an authorized official. The legislation will further encourage citizens to take an active role in reporting suspicious activity without fear of legal retribution,” reports PR Newswire.

The bill (PDF) seems designed to do little else than encourage Americans to frivolously report each other to the authorities for any reason. If someone was certain that they were witnessing suspicious behavior that was likely related to the commission of a terrorist attack, the knowledge that they would have legal protection for reporting the incident would be the last thing on their mind.

In addition, since the threat of being killed by terrorists is less common than being killed by accident-causing deer, intestinal illness or peanut allergies, the government’s aggressive promotion of the See Something, Say Something campaign has no basis in reality.

The campaign is designed to manufacture the myth that terrorists are everywhere and that any kind of mundane behavior could be characterized as suspicious. This is why the federal government constantly needs to reinforce the hoax through enlisting the general public as the eyes and ears of the Homeland Security surveillance state.

The law would provide immunity for anyone who reports “any suspicious transaction, activity, or occurrence indicating that an individual may be engaging, or preparing to engage, in a violation of law relating to an act of terrorism,” which judging by DHS standards and those set down by federal agencies and law enforcement bodies over the last decade, could be classified as almost any behavior whatsoever, including political activism, owning gold, being a Ron Paul supporter, or displaying a political bumper sticker.

So-called “suspicious behavior” as defined by the Department of Homeland Security includes talking to police officers, using cell phones and a myriad of other normal activities. Moreover, the DHS has gone to great lengths to portray white, middle class Americans as the primary terror threat.

By encouraging Americans to frivolously report anything as “suspicious behavior,” the federal government is mimicking the policy of some of the darkest dictatorships in history.

One common misconception about Nazi Germany was that the police state was solely a creation of the authorities and that the citizens were merely victims. On the contrary, Gestapo files show that 80% of all Gestapo investigations were started in response to information provided by denunciations by “ordinary” Germans. </> http://www.infowars.com/law-would-encourage-americans-to-report-on-each-other/

The article has links — I suggest people go to the source and click the blue links (especially if readers believe any content sounds outlandish). One would do well to google the MIAC Report, the DHS Extremism Lexicon, and other documents that the writer of the article assumes readers are familiar with in making statements about Ron Paul support, etc.

—– Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

I recall being taught in grade school that German children were taught in school to snitch on their parents. I believed it then because Sister told us so; I later learned it was quite true. “Everything for the State; nothing against the State; nothing outside the State.” Mussolini taught that to Hitler. Hitler learned it well.

Your article might have been better titled, “The 2013 Tax Tsunami,” a tidal wave that will likely sweep away what’s left of the private sector by then. Which won’t be much, if current policies are not mitigated soon.

I’ve been a small business owner since 1988, and am now a retired high-tech management consultant turned novelist (God’s House). I’m still a small business, and, hence, in the sector both parties profess to be “helping.” It’s remarkable to me how hostile America has become for business, and how Congress and large firms have shifted to Cronyism — approaching Chinese “State Capitalism” (aka, communism) for the socialist/progressive wing of the Democratic Party. Children’s lemonade stands are being shut down and paperback books are being asked to comply fully with the Consumer Product Safety Act of 2008 (CPSIA). Books!!!

I’m being invited to do book signings for desperate small businesses who don’t even sell books or want a cut, they just want the foot traffic. The house of my neighbor has been empty, in foreclosure, and bank-owned for years. He had a thriving business, but went bankrupt when he could no longer get financing for the expensive equipment he configured into systems for his customers.

Except for cronies, little about the expensive Federal programs (e.g., TARP, cash for cars, Stimulus I, or Stimulus II) is helpful to small businesses, who are dying under the weight of oppressive bureaucracy and lack of capital access. The legislation itself is increasingly lethal. I’m reliably informed that Obama’s “Jobs Bill” contains explicit provisions to create a new protected class, “the unemployed.” If this passes into law, should an employer hire someone, but pass over someone who’s unemployed, they potentially violate Federal Law and are subject to being sued for discrimination against the unemployed. What capitalist would dare try hiring someone? Not me. Marx is laughing.

You might want to check this out. “If Obama gives a speech and no one listens, is he still a socialist?”

Sincerely,

John D. Trudel

The easiest way to kill all incentives to hire new workers is to forbid firing them once hired.

9/11 Boatlift 500,000 carried over the water, 

Jerry

I don’t know if you have seen this. Worth watching.

Ed

“I never seen so many boats coming together that fast.”

Here, in its entirety, is the incredibly moving, just-released, Tom Hanks-narrated, 11-minute documentary of the largest-ever evacuation by boat in history:

http://www.smartplanet.com/blog/cities/moving-documentary-of-911-evacuation-by-boat-shows-resilience-of-cities/881?tag=nl.e660

In nine hours, boats streaming in from all over the Northeast evacuated 500,000 people trapped on Manhattan Island by the complete shutdown of all trains and bridges in the wake of the fall of the twin towers. (Compare that with history’s second-biggest evacuation, of 339,000 soldiers and civilians from Dunkirk, in WWII, which took nine days.)

One of the things this event illustrates is that in cities present and future, redundancy is one of the keys to resilience. New York has long neglected its waterfront, and in the face of rising seas it is even occasionally seen as a liability <http://www.smartplanet.com/blog/cities/video-3d-rendering-of-new-york-city-flooding-during-hurricane/813> . And yet without access to the water, a half million New Yorkers would not have made it home on 9/11.

This documentary was produced by Road2Resilience <http://www.road2resilience.com/about-us/> , part of an effort by the Center for National Policy to “build the reflexes and instincts necessary at every level of American society to respond quickly and wisely to future crises.”

Tocqueville would not have been astonished.

New Medical Codes Provide Precision – WSJ.com

Jerry

Now they’ve done it. A medical code for everything! For example, “burn due to water-skis on fire.” I’m not making that up:

http://online.wsj.com/article_email/SB10001424053111904103404576560742746021106-lMyQjAxMTAxMDEwMzExNDMyWj.html?mod=wsj_share_email

Someone had to have slipped that one in as a joke, right? If not, the alternative is worth a shudder. Think of how much of our healthcare dollar will go to coders now.

Ed

Isn’t that wonderful!

The headline says it all.

Regards,

Jim Riticher

Exclusive: Nobel Prize-Winning Physicist Who Endorsed Obama Dissents! Resigns from American Physical Society Over Group’s Promotion of Man-Made Global Warming <http://www.climatedepot.com/a/12797/Exclusive-Nobel-PrizeWinning-Physicist-Who-Endorsed-Obama-Dissents-Resigns-from-American-Physical-Society-Over-Groups-Promotion-of-ManMade-Global-Warming>

Barbarians

Dr. Pournelle:

"A barbarian is beating a woman. A citizen intervenes so that the woman gets away…"

This contravenes the Machiavellian maxim "Never do an enemy a small injury."

The barbarian in question should have been disposed of.

I realize this is not always feasible in the present gentle times.

Jim Watson

Nor was it an option in the situation described. And dispatching a member of the barbarian tribe – read street gang – would be a declaration of war. Never do an enemy a small injury, but one ought to understand the consequences of one’s actions.

Interestingly the police wish to disarm the citizens, saying that we should leave our protection to the professionals, but they are the first to go to court pleading that they have no obligations to defend the citizens, and to defend a policy that puts the safety of the police ahead of that of the public. I understand that there are individual police who do not believe or act that way. I speak of policy, and particularly policies that come up in collective bargaining sessions.

It is certainly possible that the American middle class form a Committee of Vigilance and deal with local gangs. It has happened before in American history. Robert Mitchum and Dana Andrews starred in such stories. But that was in another Century. And of course even barbarians have civil rights.