DSM Going Down? Navy futures; X-15; Quantum networks; Penguins in space; entangling alliances; Saving slow learners; Science and politics; Gelzinis and the Martha Stewart dilemma; and other matters of interest in a mixed mailbag

Mail 772 Wednesday, May 08, 2013

We have paid a lot of attention to Cosmology recently so this is a mailbag catchup on other subjects. It is a mixed bag on a variety of subjects.

 

NIMH Delivers A Kill Shot To DSM-5,

Jerry

NIMH Delivers A Kill Shot To DSM-5:

http://www.science20.com/science_20/blog/nimh_delivers_kill_shot_dsm5-111138

“The weakness is its lack of validity.”

About time.

Ed

Re: DSM and NIMH

Jerry,

The DSM might be losing ground.

http://www.technologyreview.com/view/514571/nimh-will-drop-widely-used-psychiatry-manual/

Regards,

George

About time indeed. See also http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/elements/2013/04/psychiatry-dsm-melancholia-science-controversy.html

A new kind of "Chinese knock off"

Pardon the pun, but there are some new Chinese knock offs on the horizon…

http://www.scientificcomputing.com/news/2013/05/rise-drones-china-emerging-new-force-drone-warfare

And I wonder wouldn’t be at all surprised on some future date to fins out that Skynet’s mother tongue is Mandarin or Cantonese.

Gary P.

My son Commander Phillip Pournelle has an essay in the current Proceedings of the US Naval Institute on missile carriers and the future of the fleet which might be relevant here. The Navy is thinking about the problems.

Bear vs. monkey.

<http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2320745/Bear-forced-ride-bike-sick-circus-stunt-crashes-mauls-monkey-large-crowd.html>

——

Roland Dobbins

When I was a graduate student at the University of Washington I had a job as graduate assistant to a major medical project. I had to take care of monkeys. I developed a lifelong hatred for the little beasts…

Voice Activated Elevator in Scotland

Jerry

What could possibly go wrong?

http://dotsub.com/view/6c5d7514-5656-476a-9504-07dd4e2f6509

Ed

What indeed?

The X-15 Rocket Plane: Implications for Reusable Booster Schedule & Cost (1966) | buffy willow

Jerry

Nice piece on the X-15 project – one of my favorite models when I was a kid:

http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2013/05/the-x-15-rocket-plane-reusable-space-shuttle-boosters-1966/

An interesting bit on reusability:

Station supporters envisioned that reusable spacecraft for logistics resupply and crew rotation would make operating the station affordable. In November 1966, James Love and William Young, engineers at the NASA Flight Research Center at Edwards Air Force Base, completed a brief report in which they noted that the reusable suborbital booster for a reusable orbital spacecraft would undergo pressures, heating rates, and accelerations very similar to those the X-15 experienced. <snip>

“Love and Young wrote that some space station planners expected that a reusable booster could be launched, recovered, refurbished, and launched again in from three to seven days. The X-15, they argued, had shown that such estimates were wildly optimistic. The average X-15 refurbishment time was 30 days, a period which had, they noted, hardly changed in four years. Even with identifiable improvements, they doubted that an X-15 could be refurbished in fewer than 20 days.

“At the same time, Love and Young argued that the X-15 program had demonstrated the benefits of reusability. The cost of refurbishing an X-15 in 1964 had, they estimated, come to about $270,000 per mission. In 1964, NASA and the Air Force had accomplished 27 successful X-15 flights. The total cost of refurbishing the three X-15s for those flights had thus totaled $7.3 million.

“Love and Young cited North American Aviation estimates which placed the cost of a new X-15 at about $9 million, then calculated the cost of 27 X-15 missions if the rocket plane had not been made reusable. They found that the all-expendable X-15 program would have cost the United States $243 million in 1964. This meant, they wrote, that the cost of refurbishing the three X-15s amounted to only 3% of the cost of building 27 X-15s and throwing each one away after a single flight.”

When I was at Boeing I developed an admiration for the X-15 and visited Edwards several times to learn more – I was in human factors then, in the 1950’s, and the concern was man in space. But Seattle is a long way from Los Angeles and was much further back in the days before jets. The best way there was to fly to Long Beach Airport and get North American to take you to Edwards on their DC-3 they kept for that purpose. When I got to California I was working on strategic missile forces and didn’t get to see much at Edwards and when I got back to manned space it was in support of Apollo, so I was only an observer of the X-15 program. We learned a lot from it. It’s time for a new reusable manned space X project.

‘Quantum network? We’ve had one for years,’ says Los Alamos,

Jerry

It seems the ads at Los Alamos has a quantum network up and running. It’s hub and spoke, but it is working:

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2013/05/07/quantum_cryptography_network_los_alamos/

As the article says, “It’s not a perfect system. While it’s relatively scalable within a locale, the hub and spoke system has inherent disadvantages on very large scales, and the authors acknowledge that if the hub is compromised in any way, the messages are insecure. But it’s a hell of a lot further along than anyone else is admitting to in public, and it’s a credit to US national scientists and their sense of discretion that they kept it a secret for this long. As network bragging rights go, this takes some topping.”

Ed

I have seen some of this, mostly back east, and I have actually communicated though a secure quantum link network. Last experience I had it wasn’t ready for actual use, though.

Subject: Penguins in space!

Jerry, you may consider Linux to be little more than a jobs program for gurus, but it appears that NASA is inclined to think differently:

http://training.linuxfoundation.org/why-our-linux-training/training-reviews/linux-foundation-training-prepares-the-international-space-station-for-linux-migration

The article explains that NASA likes the idea of having complete control over the programs in use on the ISS, including the underlying OS so that they can adapt, extend or patch things as needed instead of being stuck with whatever the owners of proprietary software are willing to give them.

Joe Zeff

For much of the life of the Shuttle, the main computer of use to the Astronauts was a Mac laptop; the Shuttle main computer was something like a Z-80 as I recall. I know that Atlantis was built with an obsolete computer system although our Council recommended through the Space Council that they go with something more modern, not just with the computer but much of the other stuff; but they built what amounted to a Columbia clone.

Finally!

Jerry,

In case you haven’t yet heard of it, the lens makers at Zeiss have finally made it possible to buy a round touit. Pic attached.

Warmest regards,

Frank

Stratfor on Nostalgia for NATO:

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/geopolitical-journey-nostalgia-nato

Mr. Friedman ends with this: “I don’t know that NATO can exist without a Cold War. Probably not. What is gone is gone. But I know my nostalgia for Europe is not just for my youth; it is for a time when Western civilization was united. I doubt we will see that again.”

Ed

NATO always was what G Washington called an entangling alliance. During the Cold War it was a necessary component of a Containment strategy, but I do not see why it is needed now.

We’re all gonna die!!! =)

By the late 80’s, I knew it was too late to bomb these people and here we go:

<.>

Senior scientists have criticised the “appalling irresponsibility” of researchers in China who have deliberately created new strains of influenza virus in a veterinary laboratory.

They warned there is a danger that the new viral strains created by mixing bird-flu virus with human influenza could escape from the laboratory to cause a global pandemic killing millions of people.

Lord May of Oxford, a former government chief scientist and past president of the Royal Society, denounced the study published today in the journal Science as doing nothing to further the understanding and prevention of flu pandemics.

“They claim they are doing this to help develop vaccines and such like. In fact the real reason is that they are driven by blind ambition with no common sense whatsoever,” Lord May told The Independent.

“The record of containment in labs like this is not reassuring. They are taking it upon themselves to create human-to-human transmission of very dangerous viruses. It’s appallingly irresponsible,” he said.

</>

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/appalling-irresponsibility-senior-scientists-attack-chinese-researchers-for-creating-new-strains-of-influenza-virus-in-veterinary-laboratory-8601658.html

—–

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Here we have a seriously sick critter. He planned to kidnap, torture, rape, and then eat a small child. He had a dungeon all nicely equipped for the job. Fortunately he was caught.

This is as clear a case of a need for capital "punishment" as a sanitation measure rather than punishment. The guy probably never can be cured. And there seems to be serious risk with letting him live that some Rose Bird type might come along again and turn him loose. If he is dead, that simply cannot happen.

Briton Geoffrey Portway admits US plot to kill and eat child

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22437771

{^_^}

I think I have no comment on this. Perhaps I should. When Possony and I studied precursors to the collapse of a society, or a major revolution, one of the harbingers was an outbreak of bizarre crimes. And now I read today’s headlines.

This was forwarded to me by an academic colleague who I greatly admire, which means that she takes it seriously, so I do:

 

Structure associated with memory formation predicts learning ability

By Meghan Rosen

Web edition: April 29, 2013

A child who is good at learning math may literally have a head for numbers.

Kids’ brain structures and wiring are associated with how much their math skills improve after tutoring, researchers report April 29 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Certain measures of brain anatomy were even better at judging learning potential than traditional measures of ability such as IQ and standardized test results, says study author Kaustubh Supekar of Stanford University.

These signatures include the size of the hippocampus – a string bean-shaped structure involved in making memories – and how connected the area was with other parts of the brain.

The findings suggest that kids struggling with their math homework aren’t necessarily slacking off, says cognitive scientist David Geary of the University of Missouri in Columbia. "They just may not have as much brain region devoted to memory formation as other kids."

The study could give scientists clues about where to look for sources of learning disabilities, he says.

Scientists have spent years studying brain regions related to math performance in adults, but how kids learn is still "a huge question," says Supekar. He and colleagues tested IQ and math and reading performance in 24

8- and 9-year-olds, then scanned their brains in an MRI machine. The scans measured the sizes of different brain structures and the connections among them.

"It’s like creating a circuit diagram," says study leader Vinod Menon, also of Stanford.

Next, the kids began an intensive one-on-one tutoring program that focused on speedy problem-solving and math skills such as counting strategies and basic arithmetic. After eight weeks and about 15 to 20 hours of tutoring, Menon, Supekar and colleagues tested the students’ math abilities again and compared the kids’ progress with their brain scans.

Overall, tutoring improved the kids’ math skills, and the children with the biggest improvements had big hippocampuses that were well connected to brain regions that make memories and retrieve facts.

"It’s a very interesting and surprising finding," says cognitive neuroscientist Robert Siegler of Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh.

In adults, the hippocampus isn’t all that involved in math, he says. But in kids, "it apparently is involved in math learning."

Supekar thinks the findings could help educators tailor math tutoring strategies to different kids. "Right now, math education is like a one-size-fits-all approach," he says. One day, maybe 10 years from now, Supekar says, scientists might be able to scan children’s brains and place them into programs that cater to their specific mental signatures.

But for now, Menon says, "It certainly behooves us to not give up on children who are slow to learn, and to think of alternate approaches to boost learning."

Citations

K. Supekar et al. Neural predictors of individual differences in response to math tutoring in primary-grade school children. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Published online April 29, 2013.

doi:10.1073/pnas.1222154110. [Go to]

http://www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/350018/description/Brain_measurem

ents_predict_math_progress_with_tutoring

I am now reviewing a case history of an ADHD child who was about to be institutionalized, but his father wouldn’t give up; the story is now told by the boy and his father. It is different from Temple Grandin’s story. And that tells us a lot.

Robert Goddard: The Ultimate Migration.

<http://www.bis-space.com/2012/03/23/4110/the-ultimate-migration>

———-

Roland Dobbins

Earth is too small and fragile a basket for the human race to keep all its eggs in.

Konstantin Tsiolkovsky

Scientific review and Politics

Jerry

Don’t know if you have seen this but if not here it is.

http://www.addictinginfo.org/2013/05/02/republican-congressman-introduces-bill-to-require-political-approval-of-scientific-papers/

Gordon C. Snelling

I have not had a chance to read this but I will try. Meanwhile it sounds frightening but perhaps I have misconstrued the idea.

The Gunpowder Plot

Dear Jerry :

In retrospect, my testimony to the House Judiciary Committee on the Comprehensive Antiterrorism Act of 1995 seems to have been a waste of time.

The West, Texas explosion tetifies that there is still a lot of ammonium nitrate lying around, and now comes word from the WSJ <http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324235304578440843633991044.html> that Marathon bomber Tamerlan Tsaraev purchased his explosives legally, anonymously, and in substantial quantities from a New Hampshire fireworks store .

Instead of emulating the patient Unabomber, who clipped the ends off thousands of kitchen matches to fuel his postal bombs, Tsarnaev bought a small number of semi-pro display fireworks:

"William Weimer, a vice president of Phantom Fireworks, said Tamerlan Tsarnaev on Feb. 6 purchased two "Lock and Load" reloadable mortar kits at the company’s Seabrook, N.H., store, just over the line from Massachusetts. Each kit contains 24 shells and four tubes for firing them into the air.

Mr. Tsarnaev paid cash for the kits, which retail for $199.99. The company has turned over records of the purchases to investigators, Mr. Weimer said. Another Phantom Fireworks store sold fireworks used in the failed 2010 Times Square bombing.

It isn’t yet known if the powder from fireworks was used in the Boston bombings, and authorities continue to search for any other explosives purchases and possible accomplices who may have provided materials for the bombs, U.S. authorities said.

The Federal Bureau of Investigation already has described other parts of the bombs, which were placed in pressure cookers and packed with nails and BBs.

Each of the parts described so far has innocuous uses and could be purchased easily, showing how a weapon could be built without arousing suspicion."

Russell Seitz

One reason I tend to avoid breaking news. Eventually the truth comes out.

I delayed publishing this until I could get a dialogue and response, but I have run out of time and it ought to be seen.

Gelzinis

Jerry,

This is a response to Ed and his Gelzinis link. I’d first like to say these young men should have the full weight of the law thrown at them. The article is correct. Had they told police about their friends, the MIT officer might be alive today, a police officer would have been spared the agony of surgery and rehabilitation, and Boston might have been able to sleep a little sooner than it did.

All of that said, however, what did anyone expect? Can anyone honestly say they are not afraid of the police? Are not afraid to get involved lest they be accused of being a part of whatever they are reporting on? Martha Stewart was just the very visible fact that our law enforcement now thinks of Americans as subjects; subjects to be bullied and that must submit to any indignity they can think of just to prove we are not "guilty" of something. The Kabuki dance we all do at the airport – we to prove we are not dangerous and they to prove they even care what we’re trying to prove – should be enough to tell all of us that the time of American citizenship has long passed.

I think these young men should be punished for more than obstructing justice. At the same time, I understand why they did what they did. They came from a totalitarian country into an even more totalitarian one. Is there any reason why they should not have been afraid for themselves and for their friends?

Braxton S. Cook

I find myself in the same dilemma. Yes they done bad; and yet we make it dangerous to cooperate with the authorities. More and more the government is ‘them’ not ‘us.”

Cabling

If I recall correctly from a long ago Byte column:

Pournelle, addressing a SCSI issue: "Ninety percent of the time it’s a cable."

Niven: "So you’re checking everything else first?"

Both principles were added to my troubleshooting checklist. Just a quick stroll down memory lane.

Wayne Kurth

Print yourself a pistol

the ‘Liberator’ again!

http://natmonitor.com/2013/05/04/worlds-first-3d-printed-handgun-is-here-congressman-fights-to-extend-ban-on-plastic-firearms/

And how do we regulate that?

Subject: North Korea

Is there some reason why we can’t just offer the office class of the North Korean army, a 20k a year life long stipend if they over throw Kim and turn over the country to the south?

I would guess that Sun Tzu would approve of that strategy. Silver bullets are often effective. Machiavelli would have understood very well.