Solar winds, ex parte Milligan, TSA stories, and many other interesting things…

Mail 766 Monday, March 11, 2013

NASA warns ‘something unexpected is happening to the Sun’ in year that is supposed to be the peak the sunspot cycle

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2290289/NASA-warns-unexpected-happening-Sun-year-supposed-peak-sunspot-cycle.html

The solar wind’s energy source has been discovered:

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2013/08mar_solarwind/

And the probe with the data? "After all these years, Wind is still sending us excellent data," says Szabo, the mission’s project scientist, “and it still has 60 years’ worth of fuel left in its tanks.”

And then there is the next one: “Solar Probe Plus, scheduled for launch in 2018, will plunge so far into the sun’s atmosphere that the sun will appear as much as 23 times wider than it does in the skies of Earth. At closest approach, about 7 million km from the sun’s surface, Solar Probe Plus must withstand temperatures greater than 1400 deg. C and survive blasts of radiation at levels not experienced by any previous spacecraft. The mission’s goal is to sample the sun’s plasma and magnetic field at the very source of the solar wind.”

"With Solar Probe Plus we’ll be able to conduct specific tests of the ion cyclotron theory using sensors far more advanced than the ones on the Wind spacecraft," says Kasper. "This should give us a much deeper understanding of the solar wind’s energy source."

Ed

Maunder Minimum approaching

This is a year old but I managed to miss it (possibly by milliseconds) when I was working on it last January.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/01/25/first-estimate-of-solar-cycle-25-amplitudesmallest-in-over-300-years/

The expected peak sunspot level of the next solar cycle is a monthly average of Wolf Number (SSN) of 7.

Note that since the SSN is calculated to have a minimum value of 11 (10 x number of sunspot groups + number of observed distinct spots), this means that a "typical" peak month will have at least 10 spotless days.

These are definitely Maunder Minimum – Little Ice Age numbers.

Jim

And we continue to learn more about the energy economy of the solar system, while pretending that our current models of earth’s energy exchanges are accurate.

Dr. Pournelle, this is my favorite example of security nonsense.

In November of last year I was going to fly to LA and, among other things, meet a model there for some photography. She’s a big comic book fan and so we planned some shoots around comic book characters and concepts. As part of this, I put a plastic but semi-realistic toy gun in my luggage. While turning it in to the airline, I informed them there was a plastic toy gun in the luggage and they should so inform the TSA so they could confirm it was harmless. Naturally a half hour later I was paged to report to the front and was told that I had to be escorted into the TSA area so they could speak with me about my luggage. Once back there I was informed that I couldn’t fly unless I either got rid of the toy or cleared it so they could see there were no real cartridges in the "weapon." I pointed out that it wouldn’t matter, it was not going to be in the cabin, so I’d have no access, I couldn’t fire it by telekinesis and if the nonexistant cartridges did fire in a plastic chamber before a plastic barrel, they’d break both and have no noticable forward thrust to be dangerous. The guards and the policeman on site agreed with all of this, but it couldn’t be resolved without a set of tools so we could take the thing apart and verify there was nothing in there other than a spring. I’d have thought the x-ray machines could have told them that. All concerned knew it was nonsense, so why were we trapped into that waste of time?

A couple said that they’d be interested in seeing the shots afterwards. Naturally, once I got to LA the model called in sick…Good thing I had other projects planned.

I’m not convinced it is possible to be hard enough on the TSA, much less "piling on."

Graves

Domesticated Dogs

Hi Jerry,

I didn’t think it was "piling on" to ask why TSA picked 2.36 inches, I just wanted to know.

However, if there is going to be a TSA pile-on I’d be happy to make time to join it. Not so much because I have been selected several times for pat-down screenings, but because at the Minneapolis airport the TSO thought it would be funny to begin by explaining, "I’m going to give you a full-body massage," an innuendo that made it even more unpleasant than usual.

On a more worthwhile topic, I always enjoy reading discussions about dogs on Chaos Manor, so I am sending along this news item —

http://news.yahoo.com/dogs-domesticated-33-000-years-ago-skull-suggests-220437160.html

A canine skull found in the Altai Mountains of Siberia is more closely related to modern domestic dogs than to wolves, a new DNA analysis reveals.

The findings could indicate that dogs were domesticated <http://www.livescience.com/20480-dog-domestication-mystery.html> around 33,000 years ago. The point at which wolves went from wild to man’s best friend is hotly contested, though dogs were well-established in human societies by about 10,000 years ago. Dogs and humans were buried together in Germany about 14,000 years ago, a strong hint of domestication, but genetic studies have pinpointed the origin of dog domestication in both China and the Middle East.

–Mike

I fly every week (and opt-out from the body scanners), and am absolutely sure that the recent policy changes make no material impact on airplane security. Someone at the TSA probably made the judgment that if an incident occurs, it would be better if the policy allowed it, than if the security screenings failed (which of course, they do for items like this).

Now that may seem cynical, but I believe it also is designed to protect the traveling public from even more onerous screening requirements. Now if something happens, they just re-introduce the ban. If something had happened with the ban in place, the searches and restrictions would have reached untenable levels due to political and media pressure to ‘do something’.

Not everyone in the TSA is an idiot – many good people are trapped by a flawed system under immense political pressure to have impossible perfect security. Congress shoulders far more blame than the TSA. =

Americans on American soil

Dear Dr. Pournelle,

I’ve seen the stuff going around the blogosphere claiming that the president reserves the right to kill Americans on American soil. Here is, so far as I can tell, the actual position:

http://hotair.com/archives/2013/03/05/eric-holder-yes-in-extraordinary-circumstances-the-president-can-order-americans-killed-on-americans-soil/

"

As members of this administration have previously indicated, the US government has not carried out drone strikes in the United States and has no intention of doing so. As a policy matter moreover, we reject the use of military force where well-established law enforcement authorities in this country provide the best means for incapacitating a terrorist threat. We have a long history of using the criminal justice system to incapacitate individuals located in our country who pose a threat to the United States and its interests abroad. Hundreds of individuals have been arrested and convicted of terrorism-related offenses in our federal courts.

The question you have posed is therefore entirely hypothetical, unlikely to occur, and one we hope no president will ever have to confront. It is possible, I suppose, to imagine an extraordinary circumstance in which it would be necessary and appropriate under the Constitution and applicable laws of the United States for the President to authorize the military to use lethal force within the territory of the United States. For example, the president could conceivably have no choice but to authorize the military to use such force if necessary to protect the homeland in the circumstances like a catastrophic attack like the ones suffered on December 7, 1941, and September 11, 2001."

So, if I’m reading this right, what he’s saying is that the President can order American fighters to shoot down another hijacked airliner even if it still has American civilians aboard.

That’s not exactly controversial, is it? The President has had the power to act in emergencies since Washington suppressed the Whiskey Rebellion. Congress has the power to not fund his actions (Lincoln didn’t have to ask them to authorize him to reassert the lawful authority of the US in 1861, but he DID have to ask them for money, volunteers, conscription et al) and Congress has the power to impeach him if he exceeds his authority.

So I think this is a tempest in a teapot, where conservatives are trying to find a club to beat the President with. There are sufficient legitimate clubs to beat him with, so there is no need to resort to imaginary ones.

Still, it does raise a question. Assasssination of military targets is legitimate in wartime. I don’t think anyone is going to argue shooting down Yamamoto was any violation of the laws of war. Problem: Our enemies in the war on terror don’t wear uniforms. Often, we are dependent for targeting on the same intelligence agencies which reassured us Saddam had weapons of mass destruction. You can see why I would not find this reassuring.

The other problem is that the war on terror is never going to end. "Terror" is not one single organization that can be brought to terms on the battleship Missouri. It’s a tactic used by many different groups, and it’s one we’re going to have to deal with for the foreseeable future.

Which means war powers and wartime emergencies are not adequate for combatting terror. Terror is now part of the normal world. Which means we need normal peacetime protocols for dealing with it.

Which means we need some way to apply Magna Carta’s principles to drone strikes.

The question I have … and this is serious, not rhetorical .. is how do we do this and maintain a free society? The closest historical analog I can think of is the Protestant hunting of Jesuit priests as infiltrators back in the days of Elizabeth. I’m not convinced that’s necessarily a model we want to follow, but I’m at a loss to think of a better one at this time.

Respectfully,

Brian P.

I would have thought that interception of an enemy admiral in time of war was not controversial; but execution of American citizens without trial certainly is. Ex parte Milligan settled that, or I would have thought so. There is a difference between actions against terrorists, citizens or not, when they are are not subject to arrest and detention; but on American soil while the courts of law still exist and the authorities retain power, the army is not permitted to try and execute citizens even when taken in actions against the United States. Arrest and detain, yes, but not execute. This goes to the heart of the power of the state. We may have an inherent right to pass an ultimate decree, but that has not been done here. The Nazi saboteurs landed on Long Island in WW II were executed (at least some of them were) after trial by a military tribunal, but they were not shot down like dogs on the court house steps.

Inter armes, silent leges; but that is not the case in America in this year of grace 2013.

Chickens

Jerry,

Your post on the gleaming chicken processing plant in Iraq reminded me of the TV series "The Walltons" where Ike Godsey decided to buy all those refrigerators for the folks on Walton Mountain, none of whom had electricity at the time. That brilliant move resulted in John Walton re-mortgaging his home he had just paid off to bail out Ike and Cora Beth. Classic…

Regards,

Gnawbone Jack

Jack Collingsworth

HMS Friday: The Legend of Hugh Williams.

<http://thescuttlefish.com/2010/12/hms-friday-the-legend-of-hugh-williams/>

Roland Dobbins

A very strange story indeed. And of course we want to find things like this…

And within an hour of posting this, I got

Jerry: The Hugh Williams Shipwreck Coincidence tale doesn’t stand up to scrutiny: July 16, 2012

<http://open.salon.com/blog/rick_spilman/2012/07/16/the_unsinkable_hugh_williams_truth_behind_the_legend>

LTM

which I suspected from the start; but people want to believe stories like this. That includes me.  Ah well.

 

TSA exposé…

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/confessions_of_tsa_agent_we_re_bunch_OhxHeGd0RR9UVGzfypjnLO

Charles Brumbelow

Frack the Chinese

Dear Jerry –

From http://www.cnbc.com/id/100531212?__source=xfinity|mod&ticket=ST-100688-wOANG9T1fBrrjnhpFfM7pb52ESm2kQELAvA-20&rememberMe=null

"With oil production at a twenty year high and predictions of a manufacturing renaissance for the U.S. economy, one of the world’s largest investment banks has detailed how the "shale revolution" will negatively affect emerging markets such as China."

If true, it’s still a ways off, but it’s an interesting projection.

As for the title, I just couldn’t help myself. No biscuit for me.

Regards,

Jim Martin

Energy is the key ‘element’ in modern world history.

Sowell: ‘And public alarm is what can get budget cuts restored.’

<http://washingtonexaminer.com/will-obama-turn-the-united-states-into-the-worlds-largest-banana-republic/article/2523217>

Roland Dobbins

‘Like Martel’s campaigns before them, the Crusades were defensive actions designed to stave off Muslim aggression.’

<http://www.americanthinker.com/2013/03/we_might_be_muslim_today_if.html>

Roland Dobbins

The siege of Vienna in 1529 was a major turning point in history. It could have gone the other way. Fletcher Pratt calls it “The failure to compete the crescent,” and makes it one of the key battles that changed history. Another was Las Navas de Teloso, in 1212. Those not familiar with Pratt’s Battles That Changed History are unfortunate; it is one of the best summary histories of Western Civilization that I know of.

Lengthy but interesting…

…report considering psychiatric medicines and school violence. Includes a number of references to specific situations.

http://www.fromthetrenchesworldreport.com/psychiatric-meds-prescription-for-murder/37091/

Charles Brumbelow

Army tuition assistance suspended

To they whom joined for the college money:

<.>

The Army announced Friday it is suspending its tuition assistance program for soldiers newly enrolling in classes due to sequestration and other budgetary pressures.

“This suspension is necessary given the significant budget execution challenges caused by the combined effects of a possible year-long continuing resolution and sequestration,” Paul Prince, an army personnel spokesman at the Pentagon, wrote in an email to Stars and Stripes. “The Army understands the impacts of this action and will re-evaluate should the budgetary situation improve.”

The Army’s announcement follows a similar move by the Marine Corps.

The Army’s tuition assistance program was available for troops to complete a high school diploma, certificate program or college or master’s degree. Under the program, the Army paid 100 percent of the tuition and authorized fees charged by a school up to established limits of $250 per semester hour or credit hour or up to $4,500 per fiscal year.

</>

http://www.stripes.com/news/army-suspends-tuition-assistance-program-for-troops-1.210999

—–

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

Of course one could argue that given the economy we do not need more incentives to fill a volunteer military – at least in the army. Career navy enlisted may be a bit harder to come by. It depends…

Sunstone.

<http://www.gadling.com/2013/03/07/fabled-sunstone-discovered-in-english-shipwreck/>

Roland Dobbins

Interesting UAV drone RPA article

Jerry,

This article is from last year and it focuses more on RAF Reaper flying than USAF, but it’s a pretty good read and given the political discussion of the week, it’s timely.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/defence/9552547/The-air-force-men-who-fly-drones-in-Afghanistan-by-remote-control.html

Sean

– near-term reliable fusion

Jerry,

I haven’t seen this in your blog, and think it is a reliable competent group (skunk works) that seems to be on to a better way to get to fusion affordably in the near term.

http://www.popsci.com/technology/article/2013-02/fusion-power-could-happen-sooner-you-think

r/Spike

One can hope, but I do not think we are much closer to economically useful fusion energy than we were thirty years ago.

Holocaust Memorial Museum is not on the National Mall

Jerry:

It has been many years since I visited the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum, but I don’t remember it being on the National Mall. Rather it is on 14th Street south of Independence Avenue, which is the southern boundary of the Mall in that area as I read Google Maps (see below) and the Wikipedia article about the Mall. That article describes the Museum as a nearby attraction.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Mall

<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Mall> Emacs!

Best regards,

–Harry M.

Indeed. I have visited the Holocaust museum but long enough ago that my memories are confused on the location.

In your March 6, 2013 mail you reprinted an e-mail from someone that includes what purports to be a long article published in a Spanish newspaper in 2008 by one Sebastian Villar Rodriguez.

One thing that should make you immediately suspicious is that there is no source given for the article despite the claim of an exact date of publication. Almost always claims of this type are false in my experience.

The simplest search will pull up tons of claims regarding this article over the past decade.

This one may or may not be the original from 2004. I don’t remember enough Spanish from high school (it was a long time ago) to say much about it.

http://www.gentiuno.com/articulo.asp?articulo=1865

I have not found any earlier posts about it.

The e-mail you posted includes other statements that have circulated in other e-mails for some years.

Researching the truth and original sources for the myriad claims are left as an exercise for the reader (as they used to tell us in school.)

Best regards,

–Harry M.

The lists of accomplishments have circulated for many years because so far as I know they are true. It may well be that the source is not; I found the subject matter worth thinking about. Since I do not know who Sebastian Villar Rodriguez is I wouldn’t regard him as an authority to begin with. Sometime it is not the source but the subject matter that I find worth contemplating.

And do note that I do not necessarily approve every statement made in mail. I publish what I think is owrth thinking about, or is amusing, or which just struck my fancy at the time. And I very much invite people to do their own research.