Monthly Archives: August 2013

WMD, Assad, and Arab Spring

  By Jerry Pournelle | Aug 25, 2013 - 6:37 pm | Updated: August 25, 2013 - 6:37 pm |
Comments Off on WMD, Assad, and Arab Spring

View 787 Sunday, August 25, 2013

“Transparency and the rule of law will be the touchstones of this presidency.”

President Barrack Obama, January 31, 2009

Thinking about Syria.

The Wall Street Journal recently featured twin pieces by John Bolton and Elliot Abrams indicating a split in the neo-conservative enthusiasm for involving American troops in Middle East combat actions. Abrams wanted us to snub the Egyptian Mamelukes; Bolton thinks we should support the Egyptian Army.

This may indicate a weakening of the neocon control over the Republican party http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2013/08/frank-rich-even-neocons-disagree-on-mideast.html It may not. It is certainly worth noting.

The neocon division over Syria is even more dramatic. Some Republicans in Congress appear to be calling for a Congressional resolution authorizing the President to use the American military to intervene in the Syrian civil war. The NYMAG article linked above has this to say: “(It was particularly galling to hear John McCain say this week that such an intervention would come at “very little cost” — essentially the same prediction he made about the war in Iraq.)” It was said of the Bourbons when they returned to power in France after the Revolution and the Napoleonic Wars that they had learned nothing and had forgotten nothing. One may say the same of Senator McCain.

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We have mail on the subject:

Syrian gas attack

Dear Dr. Pournelle:

You wrote: "There are more stories of chemical weapons used in Syria. I find them utterly unconvincing. The evidence for actual use of chemical weapons is not clear, and even if it were incontrovertible I would be more inclined to suspect false flag operations than sudden senility in Bashar Al-Assad."

The basis for the allegation is reported in a story ("Syria: Cameron and Obama move west closer to intervention <http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/aug/24/syria-cameron-obama-intervention/print> ") in the British newspaper The Observer, which provides some details of the evidence. I quote the relevant section of the article for your convenience:

"The dramatic upping of the stakes came after the international medical charity Médecins sans Frontières (MSF) reported that three hospitals in Damascus had received approximately 3,600 patients displaying neurotoxic symptoms <http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/aug/24/syrian-chemical-weapons-rebel> in less than three hours on the morning of Wednesday, 21 August. Of those patients, 355 are reported to have died.

"Dr. Bart Janssens, MSF’s director of operations, said: "Medical staff working in these facilities provided detailed information to MSF doctors regarding large numbers of patients arriving with symptoms including convulsions, excess saliva, pinpoint pupils, blurred vision and respiratory distress."

"He said the reported symptoms strongly indicated "mass exposure to a neurotoxic agent. This would constitute a violation of international humanitarian law, which absolutely prohibits the use of chemical and biological weapons."

"France’s foreign minister, Laurent Fabius, said on Saturday that "all the information at our disposal converges to indicate that there was a chemical massacre near Damascus and that the [regime of Bashar al-Assad] is responsible".

"The foreign secretary, William Hague, said last week <http://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2013/aug/21/william-hague-syria-chemical-weapons-video> that "this is a chemical attack by the Assad regime" and "not something that a humane or civilised world can ignore"."

Now, it is certainly possible that the medical professionals involved are mistaken, or that they have been suborned into making fictitious accusations. To borrow your own reasoning, I find it much easier to believe that an increasingly-desperate Assad was willing to risk Western (meaning US, really) intervention by using gas on his own people, than that MSF would simply make something like that up. Assad, at least, has clear motivation: he doesn’t want to wind up hanging upside down from a meathook. What possible motivations MSF would have, by contrast, are somewhat unclear.

As lagniappe, you will note that the article quotes the French (socialist) foreign minister as strongly supporting the gas story: again, given France’s somewhat unhelpful attitudes toward US interventions in the past, this seems essentially like an admission against interest.

This certainly seems–if not conclusive–certainly strongly validating of the gas attack allegations.

I believe it is perhaps overly conclusory to suggest ("They [the gas stockpiles] turned out to be non-existent…") that we didn’t find anything in Iraq. There was plenty there, including dual-use chemicals usable as precursor agents, and dual-use equipment which could have been diverted to manufacture war gasses: what there wasn’t, was a large stockpile of assembled and ready-to-use bombs and shells. The CIA’s report on the subject <https://www.cia.gov/library/reports/general-reports-1/iraq_wmd_2004/chap5.html> is readily available on the web.

Finally, I do not understand your arguments based on the rationality of an adversary. While both Saddam and Assad are, I am confident, rational actors, I think it is perhaps overly optimistic to suppose that they will weigh all risks and benefits in the same manner that you or I might. Hence your suggestion that (in effect) it would be (or, in Saddam’s case, would have been) irrational to conceal or indeed use chemical weapons ("…I would be more inclined to suspect false flag operations than sudden senility in Bashar Al-Assad…He has many good reasons to convince the world he does not have any WMD’s, and no real incentive to have or use them.") seems a bit of a stretch.

Very respectfully,

David G.D. Hecht

Mr. Hecht may be correct. Everyone assumes that Assad or – more likely one of his generals – has used war gasses in the civil war and killed from one to several hundred civilians. Since the President has drawn a Red Line requiring some dramatic US intervention of Assad uses “weapons od mass destruction” I am perfectly willing to be persuaded that there were no WMD’s employed by Assad: I prefer that the US not be marked as a paper tiger for failing to react after the President’s line in the sand to our active involvement in yet another Middle Eastern war where nothing will go well, and we will replace a strong man who longs for some kind of stability with a chiliastic regime driven by an ideology hostile to Americans – the probable result of US intervention.

The Assads have held together a coalition of minorities, and in doing that have had to be tolerant of Christians, Druze, Kurd, and other minorities in Syria. The cost of the Assad regimes has been high: thousands dead. Over decades, tens of thousands.

Of course the cost of Saddam Hussein was very high, too. Tens of thousands. Hundred of women ravished by his barbarian sons. Of course the cost of liberation from Saddam has been over 100,000 Iraqis killed as well as 3600 Americans killed among 36000 casualties. Going into Iraq was going to cost $300 billion. I recall at the time saying that for $300 billion investment we could make the US nearly independent of Middle Eastern oil, and it wouldn’t cost more than a few hundred killed in oil fields and on oil platforms. And of course as we all knew, the real cost was a lot more than $300 billion we couldn’t afford, and the result hasn’t been anything like as favorable as it was hoped it would be.

So yes: I am willing to believe that Assad is smart enough to avoid using war gas. I’d rather believe that and be wrong than prove him wrong and send an expeditionary force to empower al Qaeda in Syria. Colin Powell says that Assad is a liar, which is true enough: but then it’s the Middle East.

As to what we found in Iraq, it was palaces, not VX.

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WMDs in Syria

Okay, I’ll bite. You said(View 786 Tuesday, August 13, 2013):

""…They turned out to be non-existent…""

in reference to the WMDs that Hussein may have had. I think there is a case to be made for their transference to Syria from Iraq, prior to our second invasion. I know the conspirasphere is rife with examples (both supporting the theory and debunking it). I am not sure that the fact that they have never, up to now, been located is evidence of their non-existence.

Here’s an article from a year or so ago ‘demolishing’ the WMD in Iraq theory:

http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2012/07/syria-iraq-wmd-meme/

a quote from the article:

""Fourth, from a U.S. military perspective, the transfer would have been impossible to hide. I worked at U.S. Central Command’s Mideast headquarters before, during, and after the invasion, which gave me a good understanding of what was going on at the time. The region was blanketed by U.S. military assets. Operation Enduring Freedom was in full swing in Afghanistan, and Operations Northern and Southern Watch <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraqi_no-fly_zones> were still in place over Iraq. If something moved — like, say a convoy of Winnebagos of Death <http://abcnews.go.com/International/story?id=79784&page=1> heading for Syria — it could be detected and killed.""

The last sentence is what caught my eye. The author seems to think our intel before the second Iraq invasion was 100% accurate. We saw everything, knew where everything was etc. Well, if that is the case, why did intel indicate the existence of WMDs? I’ll give you that and say that knocks pre-invasion intel down at least .01%; pre-invasion intel is now 99.99% accurate. Which calls into question the ability to see something move and subsequently knock it out. Suppose among the .01% of things missed/incorrect was a convoy (unlikely to use a convoy if you are sneaking things around, I believe) or multiple vehicles to move things out country…

And I suppose the first sentence is eye catching as well. Simply impossible to hide? From a military perspective? Then why does military intel indicate non-existant WMDs? Did military intel also find unicorns that we aren’t hearing about? Which is it? Military intel is 100% reliable or it is not? WMDs were there or not? I don’t know the term in logic, but it seems that someone is trying to use two conflicting statements to support his theory. And BAM, case closed, nothing more to see here, Bush lied, people died, etc.

And here’s an article from a year or so ago ‘supporting’ the WMD in Iraq theory:

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Peace/2012/07/14/And-where-did-syrias-chemical-weapons

a quote from the article:

""In 2006, former Iraqi general, Georges Sada, who served under Saddam Hussein before he defected, wrote a comprehensive book detailing how the Iraqi Revolutionary Guard moved weapons of mass destruction into Syria, before the US-led action to eliminate Saddam Hussein’s WMD threat, by loading the weapons into civilian aircraft in which the passenger seats were removed.""

and a quote of a quote from the article:

""…“Mr. Sada’s comments come just more than a month after Israel’s top general during Operation Iraqi Freedom, Moshe Yaalon, told the Sun that Saddam ‘transferred the chemical agents from Iraq to Syria.’…"

So there’s at least testimony from someone who may have known of what happened to Iraq’s WMDs. I give you, not gold standard proof. At best it is just personal testimony, and thus we cannot convict on it… It does raise a shadow of a doubt about the non-existence of WMDs though. Enough that I don’t feel at all sure of myself to say that they never existed.

Now, that all being said, it is not in (what’s-his-name ?Asshad Bashir?) the leader of Syria’s interest to use WMDs on his people (as you noted). I believe the President said about a year ago that WMDs being used on people would be a ‘red line’ that once crossed would result in the US getting involved in the ground game in Syria. So now we have ‘evidence’ that the leader of Syria used WMDs on his people, a thing that I don’t think is in the President’s (Obama) best interest; we don’t want to get involved in Syria, he may have wanted to a year ago when he said what he said, but now I think perhaps he wishes he didn’t say what he said… Plus it would look silly to go invading a country over WMDs when it is found out that the rebels used the WMDs in a false flag attack to draw US forces into the conflict. An act that would be in the interest of the rebels in Syria.

Now it can be said that Syria was no friend of Iraq in the Hussein days, and who better to send WMDs to in Syria than rebellion minded people? We know Saddam sent jet fighters to Iran, another non-friend of Iraq… the second article touches on that.

I don’t know if I can come up with a catchphrase as awesome as ‘Bush lied and people died’ to say ‘Obama is an idiot and now we are in a conflict not of our own where neither side is on our side at the end of the day’ but I am sure someone could shorten and sweeten that one up, should the need arise…

All that being said, it is just as likely that Syria could have made some chemical weapons of their own which have fallen into rebel hands in one way or another. As much as I’d love for some physical evidence of Iraqi WMDs to be found, I don’t think we need to get involved in Syria to find it, and I have a feeling that could be yet another reason to for the current administration to stay out of it.

I agree that we never found any WMDs in Iraq, I do not agree that the fact of not finding the things is proof of their non-existence. But then I believe in God too, so perhaps my belief in proof of existence of things is suspect…

That’s my two cents anyhow, I hope wired and breitbart aren’t considered conspirasphere sites. The theories in the conpirasphere are MOST entertaining, Zionist Illuminati CIA shills are behind it, AGAIN! Somebody should do something about those guys…

-pate

I don’t know who used what on whom in this latest brushup. I do know that the number of casualties resulting from American intervention in the Syrian civil war will dwarf the number of dead from whatever war gasses may have been employed. War gas can be an effective method of civilian control if you control the territory” : Saddam and his general Chemical Ali made that clear enough if we hadn’t learned it from Yellow Rain earlier. And of course the USSR had the worst weaponized anthrax incident in history, making it clear that they were developing chemical/biological weapons (which they probably still have).

War gas is not a particularly effective weapon in the present situation. What Assad wants is stability: ne needs people to believe that if he wins they will at least be safe from this violence. We have seen what happens in Libya and Egypt when the Arab Spring ripens.

It’s not that hard to make serious war gasses. Any rebel group determined to do it would be able to come up with some. And Iraq certainly had a lot of them at one time: they aren’t that easy to dispose of and who knows where they went. All that is subject matter for a serious novel. It is not a matter for US military intervention.

George Washington warned us not to be involved in the territorial disputes of Europe. He could have added “and the Middle East” easily enough. We rejected his advice during the Balkan mess in the 1990’s with the result of permanent damage to the region’s economy and convincing the Russians that America is anti-Slavic. That latter has colored US Russian relations ever since, and was a major cost of our ham handed intervention in the territorial disputes of Europe.

Our perpetual war for perpetual peace hasn’t worked out so very well.

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As I file this, Assad has invited the UN inspectors to come see the chemical weapons battleground.

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War gas, Mamelukes, Aetius, and none dare call it treason

  By Jerry Pournelle | Aug 23, 2013 - 11:48 am | Updated: August 25, 2013 - 5:40 pm |
Comments Off on War gas, Mamelukes, Aetius, and none dare call it treason

View 786 Tuesday, August 23, 2013

“Transparency and the rule of law will be the touchstones of this presidency.”

President Barrack Obama, January 31, 2009

We have a number of comments on recent posts, and they seem relevant. Meanwhile the Mamelukes have released their retired Grand Master Mubarak although he remains technically under house arrest, but attended by loyal orderlies and guards. Nothing unexpected. Keeping the loyalty of the troops is important, and disrespect to the aging pharaoh is now way to insure that loyalty and respect.

There are more stories of chemical weapons used in Syria. I find them utterly unconvincing. The evidence for actual use of chemical weapons is not clear, and even if it were incontrovertible I would be more inclined to suspect false flag operations than sudden senility in Bashar Al-Assad. If the second Iraqi war taught anything it was that having weapons of mass destruction is not going to help a dictator achieve a long and tranquil life or secure retirement. War gasses aren’t as effective in the real world as they are in literature: one reason for the horror associated with The Great War war gasses is that so many survived for a long life afterwards and could tell their stories. Of course modern war gasses like VX and Soman are far more effective, so we combine the remembered horror of the survivors with the modern fatalities. Saddam Hussein used war gasses during the 1990’s after the First Gulf War, and the threat that he had them and would used them was a major factor in the US decision to intervene after 9/11. It was reasonable to suppose that Saddam had war gasses: his own generals were convinced that he had them (that was one of Saddam’s means for controlling them). MI-6 certainly purported to believe they existed.

They turned out to be non-existent, but the lesson was plain for all to see, and Bashar Assad certainly saw it. He has many good reasons to convince the world he does not have any WMD’s, and no real incentive to have or use them.

The Arab Summer continues.

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Aëtius

Jerry

Regarding recent reference to Aëtius in your mail, some may find the following passage from Gregory of Tours’ History of the Franks of some interest:

And Attila king of the Huns went forth from Metz and when he had crushed many cities of the Gauls he attacked Orleans and strove to take it by the mighty hammering of battering rams. Now at that time the most blessed Annianus was bishop in the city just mentioned, a man of unequaled wisdom and praiseworthy holiness, whose miracles are faithfully remembered among us. And when the people, on being shut in, cried to their bishop, and asked what they were to do, trusting in God he advised all to prostrate themselves in prayer, and with tears to implore the ever present aid of God in their necessities. Then when they prayed as he had directed, the bishop said: "Look from the wall of the city to see whether God’s mercy yet comes to your aid." For he hoped that by God’s mercy Ætius was coming, to whom he had recourse before at Arles when he was anxious about the future. But when they looked from the wall, they saw no one. And he said: "Pray faithfully, for God will free you this day." When they had prayed he said: "Look again." And when they looked they saw no one to bring aid. He said to them a third time: "If you pray faithfully, God comes swiftly." And they besought God’s mercy with weeping and loud cries. When this prayer also was finished they looked from the wall a third time at the old man’s command, and saw afar off a cloud as it were arising from the earth. When they reported this the bishop said: "It is the aid of the Lord." Meanwhile, when the walls were now trembling from the hammering of the rams and were just about to fall, behold! Ætius came, and Theodore, king of the Goths and Thorismodus his son hastened to the city with their armies, and drove the enemy forth and defeated him. And so the city was freed by the intercession of the blessed bishop, and they put Attila to flight.

— Book II ch. 7. http://www.thelatinlibrary.com/gregorytours/gregorytours2.shtml

That’s even better than looking out and seeing Gandalf the White and the Riders of Rohan coming up in the rear of the orcish horde at the climax of The Two Towers.

Aëtius’ successor, AEgidius, in alliance with Childeric the Frank — and with the Britanni that he had invited to settle in what is now Britanny — defeated the Saxons under Odoacer, again at Orleans with the remnant of the army that had beaten Attila. His son, Syagius, was the last Roman to rule in Soissons, an island of Romanitas in a Franco-Gothic sea. (In another context, John Lukacs used to say, "On one side were Latins, and light, and wine; on the other were Germans, and darkness, and beer.") Childeric’s son was Clovis, accounted the first king of France.

MikeF

Horns, horns, horns … Rohan had come at last.

Aetius has been called “The Last Roman”.

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Bradley Manning Sentenced to 35 Years in Prison

http://www.wired.com/threatlevel/2013/08/bradley-manning-sentenced/

Bradley Manning Sentenced to 35 Years in Prison

"Manning will be eligible for parole after serving a third of his sentence, which means he could be released in about nine years at around the age of 33. "

I was in Afghanistan when this happened, and it made my job almost impossible immediately. Then it got worse as the usual knee jerk reactions to be seen doing something came into effect.

He’d best be grateful he had the worst judge I can recall since OJ Simpson. I’d have thrown the book at him. There was no judgment call, he signed his SF312 which is the standard DoD Non Disclosure Agreement so he can’t claim ignorance.

My utter lack of respect for those in charge is why I’m retiring.

I do not understand why Manning was not charged with treason. But nowadays no one is. Major Hassan is guilty of workplace violence, and his victims do not merit the Purple Heart although they would have had Hassan waited until he and his victims were overseas.

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I (heart) boobies

Jerry

It seems that our local school district is now nationally famous — and via Chaos Manor, internationally famous — for its doomed attempt to enforce a modicum of dignity in what was once supposed to be an academic institution. I noticed that a couple of responses to the story gloried in the fact that their children were already jaded and sexualized, but this may or may not be true of youth in east-central Pennsylvania. What inquiring minds want to know is what will go on the rubber bracelet for prostate awareness.

MikeF

After the last Oscar presentation, I do not believe it possible to enforce any modicum of decency in a public institution. Perhaps that is the proper place to try; I’d have to know more about the reading assignments given in that school. I would agree that such decisions ought to be local.

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Annals of Bureaucracy

Jerry,

Don’t ever let you C-PAP machine die. I am having to deal with the untimely death of mine at the early age of 18. I thought that dealing with insurance companies was bad but dealing with Medicare esoterica is in a class beyond transfinite numbers. My new machine is going to have a monitor chip. If I do not use it for 4 hours straight 70% of the nights they can come and repo the beast. The moron who wrote that reg never had an enlarged prostate and a shrinking bladder. I am sorely tempted to cash in one of my last chits at Langley and have the Uncle Guido Squad give him/her/it an equally hard time of it but as a law abiding dude I am going to have to go back to a chamber pot for the first time since I was four and pee with my mask on. After all the Lone Ranger did.

I bet the lawyer who wrote that reg was never able to cut it in private practice and thinks he is doing a great public service. The New Reality bites.

Val Augstkalns

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Bunny inspectors, health and education, and a laser like focus.

  By Jerry Pournelle | Aug 22, 2013 - 1:45 pm | Updated: August 23, 2013 - 11:01 am |
Comments Off on Bunny inspectors, health and education, and a laser like focus.

View 787 Thursday, August 22, 2013

“Transparency and the rule of law will be the touchstones of this presidency.”

President Barrack Obama, January 31, 2009

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More Bunny Inspectors. I seem to recall the President promising a laser like focus on expenditures and budget items, but that was back in campaign days.

Thomas Stemberg: A New Law to Liberate American Businesses

If Congress could close military bases, it can reduce job-killing regulations.

Nearly 30 years ago, I started a company called Staples Inc. SPLS -1.37% that went on to do pretty well. Launching a business like Staples in 2013 would be a much harder proposition, with success by no means certain. There are so many government impediments to business today that the next Staples—and its 50,000 jobs—might never get off the ground.

Chief among those roadblocks: the blizzard of bureaucratic red tape that buries businesses and stifles job creation. These include the additional 16 million hours that vending-machine and chain-restaurant business owners must spend complying with new food regulations each year. But there is also the license that magicians require to do a rabbit disappearing act, which mandates an annual fee, surprise inspections and a rabbit disaster plan. All told, American business faces 46,758 pages of rules to live by in the Federal Register.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324653004578651852012786828.html

Stemberg proposes a commission like the base closing commission – the Defense Realignment and Base Closing Commission to be precise – that would take a laser like focus on regulations and propose lists of those to be abolished; the Congress would be required to take each list and do an up or down vote on the package, no amendments or sneaky readjustments. Whether it would work or not can be debated. Certainly something has to be. We have had for more than four years a President who promised, along with Hope and Change, a laser focus on budget expenditures.

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I do get discouraged.

To give you some idea of just how bad things are in both the schools and the courts – that latter probably because the schools have been awful for decades – you might read these:

The 3rd Circuit Court’s ‘boobies’ boo-boo

The justices who decided the case of the breast cancer bracelets need to take a refresher course in adolescence.

http://www.latimes.com/opinion/commentary/la-oe-weaver-boobies-tinker-third-circuit-court-20130821,0,3570673.story

I am blessed that this never happened to me

School is no Place for a Reader

Jennifer A. Franssen

A perplexing fate awaits a reader in an elementary school. There is no place for this strange child in classroom, library or playground. Watching my daughter caught in this predicament I find myself troubled by the paradox of an institution charged with teaching children to read that seems unable to offer either welcome or nourishment to the ardent reader within its walls.

http://notesandqueries.ca/school-is-no-place-for-a-reader/

—

73s/Best regards de John Bartley K7AAY

If you want your children to be able to read, you must teach them yourself, preferably before they get to first grade. Just about all children from dull normal up can learn to read at age 5, and it was traditional for a hundred years for the English Upper and Upper Middle class children to learn to read at home taught in the nursery by nannies. There is no reason to assume that English gentry have better protoplasm than your children.

If you want to know more on that, see http://www.readingtlc.com/. My wife’s reading program is old, it’s clunky, it looks like DOS or early Windows because that’s what it was written for, but it works: seventy half hour lessons, and just about everyone from age 4 to 44 can learn to read nearly all English words of any length. By read I mean see the word and pronounce it even if this is the first encounter with the word, or even if it’s a nonsense word like porkmine or elfsocks or muckasimfor.

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Many of us have always known this, but now it’s out:

Area 51: The real cover-up

The secret base didn’t house UFOs, but that doesn’t mean the government had nothing to hide.

http://www.latimes.com/opinion/commentary/la-oe-turley-area-51-20130821,0,943923.story

I didn’t know anything about the air pollution, but many of us understood that U-2 and SR-71 and other surveillance and high performance projects operated out of there. In 1964 I was editor of Project 75 which surveyed everything known about ballistic missile technology and had explicit need to know access to everything relevant to the present and future technologies in any way relevant to the Strategic Offensive Forces of the United States. That included flying saucers. If there were any extra-terrestrial technologies known in 1964 I never heard of them, and since the purpose of Project 75 was to structure the SOF to assure the survival of the United States, I can’t imagine why if we knew of any new technologies they didn’t get into the design survey. I certainly looked into everything known at Wright Patterson, and although I never visited Groom Lake I did go to the command hq. that oversaw the place. Nothing. (Nothing about Roswell, either, needless to say.)

But there was a cover-up, and the story is out now.

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And a bit of encouraging news:

Jeffrey Singer: The Man Who Was Treated for $17,000 Less

Bypassing his third-party payer, my patient avoided a high hospital ‘list price.’

Every so often I have an extraordinary and surprising experience with a patient—the kind that makes us both say, "Wow, we’ve learned something from this." One such moment occurred recently.

A gentleman in his early 60s came in with a rather routine hernia in his lower abdomen, one that is easily repaired with a simple outpatient surgical procedure. We scheduled the surgery at a nearby hospital.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324139404579017113415486176.html

The story tells how hospitals have different price schedules for insured and uninsured patients. You have heard the stories before, but this is explicit.

Perhaps there is a substitute for Obamacare?

Of course the whole notion of housing and food and medical care for those who can’t afford it has the problem that there is no agreed moral obligation to provide any of those to anyone unless you make certain assumptions that can be called ‘religious’.

Tocqueville noted that in Europe many matters of general welfare were traditionally considered a problem for government, and dealt with by government agents and bureaus. To his surprise nearly all those in America were dealt with by “the associations”: private associations some religious, some secular and civic. That American tradition was diluted over the years, but it still survives, although since Johnson’s Great Society days the tradition in America is like Europe. Housing and health and welfare are problems for government and taxpayers. As a result the associations have been weakened.

It may be time to reconsider just what are the responsibilities for being one’s brother’s keeper. Or sister’s. Or partner’s. The associations worked very well until times of great economic stress.  And the associations were better able to deal with the problems of ‘entitlement’, justice, fraud, and the whole question of the deserving and undeserving poor.

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Newt, Groklaw, Aetius, SDI, Education, and other important matters.

  By Jerry Pournelle | Aug 20, 2013 - 11:14 pm | Updated: August 20, 2013 - 11:14 pm |
Comments Off on Newt, Groklaw, Aetius, SDI, Education, and other important matters.

Mail 787 Tuesday, August 20, 2013

I have been off to the beach with the grandchildren, and there’s a lot of mail. We’re back now and I can try to catch up.

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Newt Gingrich’s Turn-Around

Dr. Pournelle,

I’ve been getting updates and news link from the former Speaker’s “Gingrich Productions”, and I’ve noticed a theme recently:

Gingrich: Republican Party Needs A Debate On National Security <http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2013/08/02/gingrich_republican_establishment_is_growing_hysterical.html>

Newt Gingrich: I’m on Team Paul-Cruz

<http://www.politico.com/story/2013/08/newt-gingrich-rand-paul-ted-cruz-95053.html>

Newt Gingrich sees major Mideast mistakes, rethinks his neocon views on intervention <http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/aug/4/newt-gingrich-rethinks-neoconservative-views/?page=all>

Losing the War

<http://www.gingrichproductions.com/2013/08/losing-the-war-2/>

Nothing you haven’t said and predicted over these last years—but, Ecclesiastes (2:14) reminds us, even his seeing what is in front of his face may justify calling him wise.

—Joel Salomon

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Subj: Groklaw is gone 8-(

http://www.groklaw.net/article.php?story=20130818120421175

>>The foundation of Groklaw is over. I can’t do Groklaw without your input. I was never exaggerating about that when we won awards. It really was a collaborative effort, and there is now no private way, evidently, to collaborate.<<

I’ll miss her.

Rod Montgomery==monty@starfief.com

We all will.

Subj: Oracle vs. Google trial: Jury verdict: No patent infringement

Dodged another bullet, we did!

http://www.groklaw.net/article.php?story=20120523125023818

[quote]

And now to the media: Here’s a homework assignment for you, if you are willing. I want you to think about those $6 billion damages headlines.

Where did the "information" come from? Was it an accurate tip? Remember all those articles about Google and how they were hopelessly in a mess because they had no patents to use in a counterclaim against Oracle?

Where did that come from? Was it an accurate analysis? Was it expert?

Think: If someone is being paid by a party to litigation, what is he likely to say? There is a difference between information and propaganda.

Here at Groklaw, we told you that there would never be a $6 billion damages award, and I told you that Google has a phenomenal record in beating back patent infringement claims. And I wrote that the patents looked goofball to me. Just like with SCO against the World, Groklaw called it right.

Think of the smearing that Google has had to endure. I hope you fix that now, if you participated in it unwittingly. What does this verdict mean?

It means that Google did nothing wrong with Oracle’s patents ever at any time. It was Oracle who was in the wrong. There was no patent infringement. Period.

[end quote]

Rod Montgomery==monty@starfief.com

Subj: Paul Allen’s Great Aspiration: To be the Biggest, Baddest Patent Troll of All Time? 8-((

http://www.groklaw.net/article.php?story=20100829012006847

>>Allen’s suing practically everyone who has been successful in ecommerce on the Internet, except for Microsoft and Amazon…<<

When an Archangel falls, you get an Archfiend. When a Great Innovator falls, you get …

We’re Doomed!

Rod Montgomery==monty@starfief.com

Groklaw is closing down

Dear Dr. Pournelle,

Not sure if you’re aware of this but the Groklaw site set up in 2003 is closing down.

It was set up to collate and comment on data from copyright and legal cases impacting modern technology – in particular the SCO cases (against Novell and IBM), but not limited to those. Lately for example it took a particular interest in the Sony v Hotz affair, in which the root security key for the PS3 game console was leaked.

The purpose was to restore Linux to those consoles which had been running it till Sony issued an update which removed Linux. (Since that had been marketed by Sony’s daughter corporations as a reason for the purchase, many were upset, including the US Air Force which has a cluster of 2000 of the things. There is a separate class action lawsuit about that). I had been looking forward to Groklaw’s in-depth style of investigative documentation. Too bad that won’t happen now.

Regards,TC

—

Terry Cole

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Re: Potpourri

Jerry,

A few items that might interest you. First, from Bruce Schneier is an excellent essay on our surveillance crisis. The link is to his blog, the article first ran in/on The Atlantic.

http://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2013/08/the_nsa_is_comm.html

Next up is an article that tangentially relates to our own over-spying issue. It’s not very encouraging.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/adamcurtis/posts/BUGGER

An article about the management problems that terrorist organizations face (linked from Bruse Schneier’s page).

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/139817/jacob-n-shapiro/the-business-habits-of-highly-effective-terrorists?page=show

This a little more upbeat. Have we finally sent something to interstellar space?

http://arstechnica.com/science/2013/08/scientists-are-arguing-about-whether-voyager-has-left-the-solar-system/

This last one – enjoy! The theremins are hidden inside the dolls.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2013/08/17/beethoven_s_ode_to_joy_9th_symphony_played_on_theremins.html

Regards,

George

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: SSTO question …

Mr. Pournelle –

First of all, I enjoy your writing (fiction and non-), and am thankful for your advocacy. Having been a certified space nut since boyhood, I have supported & followed passionately many of the same goals toward which you have worked. Specifically, I have always been an avid supporter of commercial space, cheap access to space (CATS), and the development of SSTO.

I had great hopes for DC-X (SSX), and even for Gary’s Roton … and when I read the recent articles on the 20th Anniversary, I thought I would ask you a question:

I would enthusiastically support *any* SSTO concept that actually got built and tested, and I presume you would feel the same. In that light, what are your thoughts about the Skylon/SABRE concept being developed in the UK?

i realize you are busy and have many higher priorities than this sort of spit-balling, but I do look forward to (hopefully) eventually hearing your thoughts.

Regards!

Eric Walusis

I no longer follow all the space projects, and I have not studied Skylon/SABRE. I do believe that Congress ought to fund a USAF SSX Project. See my two papers, http://www.jerrypournelle.com/slowchange/SSX.html The SSX Concept, and

http://www.jerrypournelle.com/reports/jerryp/gettospace.html How To Get To Space

Both are fairly old, but I haven’t seen any reason to make major revisions. We need to develop savable and reusable rockets, ships that fly, land, get refueled, and fly again without other major operational activities. The SSX might or might not make orbit with a payload – I rather think that at 600,000 pounds gross liftoff weight it would – but it need not make orbit in order for us to learn just what is needed for reusable orbital ships. Shuttle was originally intended for a flight a month, but they skipped the X-project stage and went to an operational design. That didn’t turn out to be reusable in any rational sense of the world. We need to be able to build flying hardware that is savable and reusable, and go on from there, and an X project devoted to that would be the best thing government could do for commercial space flight.

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Lack of lethal injection drugs 

Dear Dr. Pournelle,

You may find this story interesting.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/19/us/death-row-improvises-lacking-lethal-mix.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&pagewanted=all&_r=0

It seems European pharmaceutical companies are refusing to sell the sedatives and chemical used to make lethal injection cocktails to the US prison system.

Heh. sounds like a business opportunity! Anyone want to set up a pharmacy to sell drugs to the US government? I’m surprised the slack hasn’t already been picked up by some shop in China. Quality control? What, the patient might die or something?

If worst comes to worst, we can always bring back the rope or the chair.

Respectfully,

Brian P.

If the objective is to render someone painlessly dead, the problem is simple. If the actual objective is to maximize income for lawyers, it is already solved.

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: Ashton Kutcher – thumbs up

Ashton Kutcher has earned my thumbs up. Of course, with that he can’t even purchase a paper cup of water. He’s also earned Ted Cruz’s endorsement.

That means somebody I respect more than not agrees with me. And Cruz is somebody other people listen to. But the real gold is his Teen Choice Award. That means the teens like and respect him. And THAT is important for the nation’s future.

Ted Cruz endorses Ashton Kutcher’s Teen Choice Award speech

http://washingtonexaminer.com/ted-cruz-endorses-ashton-kutchers-teen-choice-award-speech/article/2534428

This is a thin ray of hope for the future if this is the kind of person teens are idolizing.

{^_^} [Joanne Dow]

Of course we are not the first generation to believe that the coming generation is leading us to barbarism. On the other hand we are one of the first to generously finance those who say they intend to teach our children to hate all we stand for.

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APOD: 2013 August 19 – Noctilucent Clouds and Aurora Over Scotland:

http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap130819.html

Both green and magenta aurorae. I remember seeing a huge display of the latter. Awesome when you can see it.

This particular video shows all sorts of nocturnal events. Very cool.

Ed

Of course aurora events often usher in big solar ejection events…

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S-groups become a reality

Heinlein described this in "Friday" and possibly some of his other works as well, I forget which ones.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-23726120?ocid=socialflow_facebook_newsmagazine

I’ll stick with monogamy, myself, not just for religious scruple but also because 4 times the people means approx. 16 times the drama potential.

I can think of no legal reason to ban polygamy, polyandry, line marriages, and the other social contracts Mr. Heinlein postulated in The Moon is a Harsh Mistress.

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Your quote

Jerry,

You are fond of repeating that “Transparency and the rule of law will be the touchstones of this presidency.”

May I suggest that this aphorism would be more cogent if "tombstone" was substituted for the word touchstone.

John Edwards

I just think it well to be reminded that one reason many voted for the current President was that he promised Hope and Change and that it would all happen in the open.

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Question and Observation, short.

Sir,

First an observation. Re ascribing malice as a motive to people in D.C. Valentinian the Third wasn’t acting in malice towards the Empire when he murdered Aëtius. He, like our current President, simply did not grok that the Empire COULD fall. Just as Valentinian took the Empire for granted, today’s Democrats take America’s superpower status and economic prosperity for granted. They don’t know or understand how it came to pass, and thusly they have no concept that it CAN collapse. Electing Democrats is akin to hiring remodelers that don’t know what a "load bearing wall" is.

Secondly, a few years ago I wrote and asked if I should be raising my children to be good citizens of the Republic or good subjects of the Empire, as there is a difference. Well I came to an answer and wanted to share it with you. Briefly, I did the math.

My son is 15, my daughter is 8, and the current average American life expectancy is 75.6 for a man and 80.8 for a woman. Assuming the Chinese don’ t launch on us, and there are no DWI’s on Prom night, the United States would still have to be operating under the 1787 Constitution in approximately 2080 for them to not outlive the country of their birth.

That, and a glance at the headlines, pretty much settled the question for me.

Take care and best wishes

Brendan Kelly

The Emperor Valentinian cut off his right hand with his left. There is no evidence that there is more wisdom in the current President.

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SDI as pseudoscience

Dear Jerry Pournelle:

As ever, I am touched by your gallantry in repeating my snark. This time about SDI, which I called a ‘childish fantasy of magical warfare’; a view you called ‘remarkably uninformed’. I agree; I insist only that everyone else on Earth is just as remarkably uninformed as I am about SDI; for it is an untested speculation.

I dismiss the rigged experiments. Any missile-intercept experiment with a homing beacon on the target is an implicit admission of the technology’s worthlessness.

In any case missile defense is not a kinetic-kill vehicle. Nor smart rocks, nor brilliant pebbles, nor a bomb-pumped X-ray laser, nor a pop-up booster, nor superior optics, nor massive supercomputation, nor net-based C&C. It is all of those things and more, operating in concert, perfectly the first time against a deadly determined enemy in the chaos of war. 100% performance alone would suffice; 99.9% performance would have meant the death of DC, NY, Boston, Chicago, LA and SF; 99% performance, so long every state capital.

Need I tell you, of all people, that such first-time technical perfection never happens? That Murphy rules, and errors will come? High technical quality is indeed possible, but only after rigorous instruction in the fool’s school, Experience. I’ll even grant that building a 99.9%-performing SDI system would be possible… but only after several dozen nuclear wars; and fortunately we haven’t had even one.

Some of SDI’s critics said that it would have been useful as a back-up for a first strike by the USA against the USSR. A war crime; but I dismiss this too, as another speculation without evidence. Fortunately.

In the absence of actual combat experience, all of SDI is speculative. This is harmless enough as a bluff (though I hear that Sakharov was unimpressed, and said as much to the Politboro); but once you start spending megabux on rigged tests, that’s when speculation becomes pseudoscience.

– paradoctor

Even before 1980 there was considerable evidence for the effectiveness of missile interception, and the general in charge of Homing Overlay was at the Council meeting at Niven’s house in December 1980 when we wrote the Reagan space policy.

I believe Casaba and Howitzer are still classified, so absent open sources I can’t discuss them, but Excalibur got into the Congressional Record and became public knowledge: a nuclear pumped x-ray laser system. Even with the rather primitive computer systems available in 1980 that was a significant weapon.

The mistake often made is that SDI was supposed to be an iron dome over the US, stopping all incoming missiles. Nothing is ever 100% effective and terrible weapons would get through: Douhet writ large. But that wasn’t the point. Against the USSR and its 26000 nuclear tipped missile warheads the purpose of SDI was to ensure that the attacks would not be able to take out the US missile forces in a strike without warning. Enough would survive to allow the US a chance at survival by taking out the remaining USSR strategic forces. SIOP planning was a pretty depressing business in those days, but if you could factor in some strategic defense capabilities it became a bit less so.

The first benefit of SDI was that it eliminated the threat of a mad dictator – or a mad defecting general – with a missile or two. That sort of attack could be 100% intercepted, simplifying foreign policy. I discussed this in some detail in my book Mutual Assured Survival, as well as in a number of defense community documents.

Operational analysis of nuclear war is never easy, although it is easy enough for those outside the analysis to convince themselves they understand everything. The purpose of SAC was to ensure that on no day could the Marshal of Soviet Rocket Forces could tell the Politburo that there was a significant probability that at the end of a nuclear war with the United States the Politburo itself would survive. SDI added to the credibility of that; and technology developments were beginning to favor the defense after decades of favoring the offense. Lasers were getting better, the possibility of ground lasers with mirrors in space was very real, and there were other concepts including nuclear.

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NSA Content Collection Confirmation?

Jerry,

Judge Andrew Napolitano this morning on Fox Business News stated that the NSA has been collecting and storing content on all US emails and phone calls for the last two and a half years.

He also makes the statement in writing, clearly and unambiguously, in a piece at http://reason.com/archives/2013/08/08/domestic-spying-is-dangerous-to-freedom.

(His lead point is that Snowden’s leaks are no different in kind from the government’s counter-leaks attempting to justify the program. Both are equally illegal.)

I went looking for confirmation elsewhere on the net, and the closest I could find was this NYT story that makes clear they’re collecting content for communications with at least one overseas party involved.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/08/us/broader-sifting-of-data-abroad-is-seen-by-nsa.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0.

Hmm. That, plus the two-additional-degrees-of-separation rule? Still not clear, I’d say.

Either Napolitano is misreading something badly, or he knows something we don’t yet. Given that collecting and storing all call content is at this point technically possible within the general scope of facilities and funding the NSA has, given the repeated references to going back and listening to content that have slipped out in the metadata discussion, and given the general disinclination of our current government to worry overmuch about minor matters of Constitutionality, I’m inclined to believe Napolitano knows something.

Fourth Amendment? We don’t need no stinking Fourth Amendment.

Meanwhile, Bob Zubrin’s piece suggesting Congress immunize Snowden and bring him home to testify, so that at least it’s us rather than our enemies in a position to benefit from his knowledge, is the most practical single suggestion I’ve seen in this mess. Of course, acting on that suggestion would require that our betters in Washington be more worried about the Russians finding out what the NSA is doing than about us finding out.

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/355218/give-snowden-immunity-robert-zubrin

feeling more naked every day

Porkypine

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Lavabit

Dr. Pournelle,

Thought you might find this interesting:

http://investigations.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/08/13/20008036-lavabitcom-owner-i-could-be-arrested-for-resisting-surveillance-order?lite

"The owner of an encrypted email service used by ex-NSA contractor Edward Snowden said he has been threatened with criminal charges for refusing to comply with a secret surveillance order to turn over information about his customers. ‘I could be arrested for this action,’ Ladar Levison told NBC News about his decision to shut down his company, Lavabit LLC, in protest over a secret court order he had received from a federal court that is overseeing the investigation into Snowden"

Hard to believe, but the article seems to imply that the government is threatening to file criminal charges against a business owner who shut down his business instead of allowing them to drill a back door into it.

Owen Charles

I am not sure that comment is needed.

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US Navy lets Japanese Imperial Navy know how to reach them: 13 August 1945

http://andstillipersist.com/2013/08/us-navy-lets-japanese-imperial-navy-know-how-to-reach-them-13-august-1945/

"FROM US NAVY HEADQUARTERS GUAM TO IMPERIAL JAPANESE NAVY BT IF COMMUNICATIONS DESIRED CALL RADIO GUAM NPN FREQUENCY 4235 KCS OR HARMONICS THEREOF AND INDICATE APPROPRIATE CALL SIGN AND FREQUENCIES FOR FURTHER COMMUNICATION IN PLAIN ENGLISH BT SIGNED NIMITZ FLEET ADMIRAL AR"

VJ Day. This is what victory looks like, for those who get their information from the news today.

Graves

At one time every cadet at West Point learned this on his first day:

“From the Far East I send you one single thought, one sole idea—written in red on every beachhead from Australia to Tokyo— “There is no substitute for victory!” Douglas MacArthur

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Days before the CoDominium

Mr. Pournelle,

I see your stories on the CoDominium and the Empire of Man as warnings, yet I wonder if those in the political leadership in this nation and others who’ve read them see them as a primer as it seems they see Orwell’s 1984. Although I like the tales of Falkenberg’s Legion and the time of the Empire of Man, the CoDominium scares the, well, it frightens me almost as much as Orwell’s Big Brother state. So much of the CoDominium looks like what we see these days and I fear that the leaders of the major powers are going about making their own version of it to satisfy their masters in the boardrooms of the major corporations around the world. I hope that I will be in the Tax Payer Class and not the Citizen Class when this nations takes this turn, but I’m not holding my breath.

Regards

Denise Hemmingway

I had hoped that with the fall of the Soviet Union and world communism we might avoid that world, but now I am not so hopeful. Yet we still have a chance. Do we have the will?

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Elysium, the Movie

Jerry:

I just saw this movie and thought I would share some thoughts.

On the surface, this movie seems to be a propaganda piece for socialized medicine and immigration reform. However; when viewed from a technological perspective, it seems to be an indictment of the environmentalist movement. The premise includes advanced robotics and very small, single stage to orbit winged craft that should make space travel easy and cheap. In spite of this, only a small fraction of humanity is allowed to enjoy an affluent lifestyle. Could it be that the disparity in living standards is the result of environmentalist dogma that insists that the economy has to be restrained to save the planet? Are all of the inhabitants of the utopian space station dot com billionaires who embrace global warming theology.

It just seemed needlessly depressing.

James Crawford=

The sad part is that they technology that built Elysium could have built space solar power satellites and flooded the world with cheap clean energy. Given cheap clean energy and some economic freedom, the kind of grinding poverty seen in that movie would not happen. You cannot solve famines by feeding people, but you can alleviate poverty by producing enough goods. If you can build Elysium you can have a thriving economy.

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MB in the White House

  Jerry,

Regarding your comments and in response to https://www.jerrypournelle.com/chaosmanor/?p=14949:

1. It is well known that Valerie Jarrett was born in Iran; her parents were American doctors who ran a clinic there. The family returned to the United States when she was about six. While I have no direct knowledge or confirmed information that she is Muslim and/or involved in a MB infiltration of the White House, as some of the extreme conservative blogosphere assert, I think I can say with some confidence that her background, as with the President, makes her more sympathetic to Islamic interests and (probably) less sympathetic to Jewish/Israeli ones.

2. According to her Wikipedia biography, Mrs. Weiner, Huma Mahmood Abedin, was born in Michigan to an Indian father and Pakistani mother, and grew up in Saudi Arabia (where her mother still teaches sociology at the university in Jeddah). She came to Georgetown in the early 1990’s and first met Mrs. Clinton while working as a White House intern in 1996. She is a practicing Muslim, and married her husband in an interfaith service officiated by former President Clinton in July 2010, less than a year before her husband’s first sexting scandal broke. (It hadn’t occurred to me before now, but one may speculate – and it is speculation – that her submission as a Muslim wife explains her acceptance of her husband’s peculiarities as much as her political ambitions.)

The Wikipedia article includes the following information (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huma_Abedin):

On June 13, 2012, Congresswoman Michele Bachmann <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michele_Bachmann> (R-Minn.), Congressman Trent Franks <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trent_Franks> (R-Arizona), Congressman Louie Gohmert <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louie_Gohmert> (R-Texas), Congressman Tom Rooney <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Rooney_(politician)> (R-Florida), and Congressman Lynn Westmoreland <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lynn_Westmoreland> (R-Georgia) alleged, based on a report by the conservative Center for Security Policy <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Center_for_Security_Policy> ,[14] <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huma_Abedin#cite_note-Feffer-14> [15] <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huma_Abedin#cite_note-15> that Abedin "has three family members–her late father, her mother and her brother – connected to Muslim Brotherhood operatives and/or organizations"[16] <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huma_Abedin#cite_note-BachmannDoc-16> [17] <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huma_Abedin#cite_note-17> These claims have been widely rejected and condemned by a variety of sources, and are generally regarded as a conspiracy theory <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muslim_Brotherhood_conspiracy_theories> .[18] <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huma_Abedin#cite_note-BuzzFeed-18> The Washington Post <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington_Post> called Bachmann’s allegations "paranoid," a "baseless attack" and a "smear."[19] <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huma_Abedin#cite_note-WaPo-19> Republicans John McCain <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_McCain> (R-Ariz.), Lindsey Graham <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lindsey_Graham> (R-S.C.), Scott Brown <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Brown> (R-Mass.) and Ed Rollins <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ed_Rollins> called the allegations "nothing less than an unwarranted and unfounded attack on an honorable woman, a dedicated American and a loyal public servant… The letter and the report offer not one instance of an action, a decision or a public position that Huma has taken while at the State Department that would lend credence to the charge that she is promoting anti-American activities within our government."[20] <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huma_Abedin#cite_note-20> [21] <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huma_Abedin#cite_note-Terkel-21> The Anti-Defamation League <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-Defamation_League> condemned the letter as well, referring to it as "conspiratorial" and saying that the Representatives involved should "stop trafficking in anti-Muslim conspiracy theories".[22] <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huma_Abedin#cite_note-adl-22> Abedin was subsequently placed under police protection after she received threats of violence, possibly connected to the allegations.[23] <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huma_Abedin#cite_note-threats-23>

The references are as follows (note: renumbered sequentially from above when I pasted it into the e-mail; my apologies):

1. ^ <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huma_Abedin#cite_ref-Feffer_14-0> Power Trip: U.S. unilateralism and global strategy after September 11 <http://books.google.com/books?id=t8PQgoFju7UC&pg=PA44&lpg=PA44&dq=%22center+for+security+policy%22+right-wing&source=bl&ots=QIaiexRgjC&sig=lH_FZI9q55jQ1Ap0nKs6JPY34_U&hl=en&sa=X&ei=jxP2UeS8JKHwigK8xYH4DA&ved=0CGIQ6AEwCQ#v=onepage&q=%22center%20for%20security%20policy%22%20right-wing&f=false> , Seven Stories Press <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seven_Stories_Press> , 2011

2. ^ <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huma_Abedin#cite_ref-15> Jeffrey Lord (July 24, 2012). "Is Huma Abedin the New Alger Hiss?" <http://spectator.org/archives/2012/07/24/is-huma-abedin-the-new-alger-h/print> . The American Spectator.

3. ^ <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huma_Abedin#cite_ref-BachmannDoc_16-0> Bachmann: "Letter to the Deputy Inspector General," June 13, 2012 <http://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/402379/rep-michele-bachmann-correspondence.pdf> , accesses Aug 1, 2013

4. ^ <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huma_Abedin#cite_ref-17> Cordes, Nancy (19 July 2012). "Michele Bachmann refuses to back down on claims about Huma Abedin" <http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505267_162-57475483/michelle-bachmann-refuses-to-back-down-on-claims-about-huma-abedin/> . CBS This Morning. Retrieved 19 July 2012.

5. ^ <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huma_Abedin#cite_ref-BuzzFeed_18-0> Hannity Panel: “Real” Weiner Scandal Is Insane Muslim Brotherhood Conspiracy <http://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewkaczynski/hannity-panel-real-weiner-scandal-is-insane-muslim-brotherho> , Andrew Kaczynski

<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Kaczynski> , BuzzFeed <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BuzzFeed> , July 29, 2013

6. ^ <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huma_Abedin#cite_ref-WaPo_19-0> Michele Bachmann’s baseless attack on Huma Abedin <http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/michele-bachmanns-baseless-attack-on-huma-abedin/2012/07/19/gJQAFhkiwW_story.html> , Washington Post <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington_Post> , July 19, 2012

7. ^ <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huma_Abedin#cite_ref-20> Rollins, Edward. "Bachmann’s former campaign chief — shame on you, Michele" <http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2012/07/18/bachmann-former-campaign-chief-shame-on-michele/> . FoxNews. Retrieved 24 July 2012.

8. ^ <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huma_Abedin#cite_ref-Terkel_21-0> Terkel, Amanda. "John McCain Slams Michele Bachmann’s ‘Unfounded’ Attacks On Huma Abedin, Muslim-Americans" <http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/07/18/john-mccain-michele-bachmann-muslim_n_1683277.html> . Huffington Post. Retrieved 19 July 2012.

9. ^ <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huma_Abedin#cite_ref-adl_22-0> "ADL Responds To Conspiratorial Letter From 5 Members Of Congress; Urges Bachmann, Others To Stop ‘Trafficking In Anti-Muslim Conspiracy Theories’" <http://www.adl.org/PresRele/DiRaB_41/6356_41.htm> .

10. ^ <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huma_Abedin#cite_ref-threats_23-0> "Report: Huma Abedin gets police protection" <http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0712/78836.html> .

I had heard some of this before (probably from reading reference "two" above) but had not followed up in detail on the assertion and the aftermath. All I can suggest is reading the articles and drawing your own conclusions as to whom is telling the truth and whom is lying.

3. As to the Muslim Brotherhood in the White House, I submit the following (Note that I have not read all of these items myself; I’ve been frying too many other fish lately….) http://voiceofrussia.com/2013_08_01/Muslim-Brotherhood-operatives-infiltrate-Obama-Administration-9710/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muslim_Brotherhood_conspiracy_theories

And one cannot forget Pamela Gellar, probably the most vocal speaker on this and related issues; http://atlasshrugs2000.typepad.com/atlas_shrugs/2013/08/obama-reportedly-to-meet-with-muslim-brotherhood-officials-in-the-white-house-.html and other items at her site.

For what it’s worth, in a conversation with a family member and former soldier a couple of weeks ago, he asserted (this is not a direct quote) that wide-spread acknowledgement of the level of MB involvement in the White House will be the factor that brings the Obama Administration down.

4. My own analysis can be summarized as follows: where there is smoke, there is fire. There are enough known facts that one may infer that some – I would assert the nominal 70% ("70% of all rumors are true") as a working hypothesis – of the unproven/not separately documented assertions are likely true. And it is very difficult not to acknowledge that the only beneficiaries of US foreign policy in practice (as opposed to rhetoric at all levels) over the past four years has been Iran and the MB (this includes by removal of Al-Qaida leaders in drone strikes as "internal" opponents to these other groups).

Jim

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Re: Restoring Trust in Government and the Internet

Jerry,

Another essay from Bruce Schneier, this about restoring trust in our government and the Internet. Obviously it is speculative whether any such restoration, especially justified, will take place. Too many in government and business believe that convincing you of a lie is the same as telling you the truth.

http://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2013/08/restoring_trust.html

George

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Public Education

The argument "repaying the cost of your own education" is only a placebo. The real answer is "We all pay for a public service". I don’t see anyone complaining (maybe they do) that they don’t have a car so why should they pay taxes to support roads or the interstates? The constitution didn’t say anything about federal roads (I think) but nobody seems to think that the ability to travel quickly across the country should depend on the generosity taxpayers of some county in Montana or Colorado… The idea that people in South Carolina gave a damn about how passable roads were in New England, probably never crossed the constitutional framers’ minds.

The fact is that like a common phone system, interstate roads, common power grids, the internet – there are some things that are functionally required for a modern society to function. We expect people to read directions, fill out forms, read labels… Many of even the basic jobs today demand a certain level of literacy that was not needed by people staring at the ass end of a horse while guiding a plough in 1788. In the same way, the federal government cannot afford to have a whole section of the country that is so functionally uneducated that they cannot be part of a modern society – hence common standards.

You are paying for that "infrastructure" whether you want it or not. Whether the government is (governments are) doing an appropriate or a good job of providing it, that’s a separate debate.

Maurice Daniels

pyramid scheme

Dr. Pournelle,

Another correspondent wrote "…everyone who pays school taxes is simply re-paying the cost of their own education, with interest, after inflation, and generally in proportion to how much they benefited from that education…" This sounds like a classic con job to me — which came first? My albeit slim reading of the development of the American public education system seems to show that the first students were paid for by their parents’ generation’s taxes for the good of the country’s economy (and slightly, for the purpose of generating a literate electorate). In addition to your excellent points, I would ask a few questions of my own: Hasn’t my education already benefited society? Why should I pay twice? Or twice as much? Or pay an amount corrected for inflation? If there has been severe inflation, have I really benefited? Shouldn’t I get a discount for poor product quality?

IMO most of those increased costs are going to poor resource management. If education was a product for which I could select between competitors, I would probably choose another over the current supplier. In my children’s case, I chose another supplier. Can I be reimbursed for my expenses? Why should I be forced to pay for a lousy product over which I have no quality control?

As with any other product of a government monopoly, the education system provides least value for most cost. I want my education system back.

Keep it up, you are on the right track!

-d

I’m not sure I understand the reasoning in this.

Quote:

Childless Taxpayers Funding Schools

It is a common misconception that it is somehow unfair for childless people to pay taxes that fund schools. In fact, everyone who pays school taxes is simply re-paying the cost of their own education, with interest, after inflation, and generally in proportion to how much they benefited from that education.

Thanks,

Jim Melendy

End Quote

If I understand Jim’s thinking here, it’s okay with him that Congress stole money from local schools during his great-grandfather’s day to pay bureaucrats in Washington to tell the local schools how to mess up their education system. It is so okay with Jim, that I somehow owe for the theft of that money so that he and others can now pay for educating their children.

To put it simply, I’m supposed to pay for this out of some sense of debt that my great-grandfather was robbed, that local schools didn’t have the money they could have, and that I got less of an education than I might have if the money were collected locally, spent on education, and controlled locally; not on some politician in D.C.

I must have missed something.

Braxton Cook

"Even those who went to private or religious schools? And why should it be federal? The old notion of local school boards which also controlled the school taxes made the best education system in the world at one time."

Your point about private school is well taken. My observation that people are really paying back for their own education is limited to people who try to use their childlessness to justify not supporting education. Whatever other arguments they put up, such as not getting value for their money or allocation of funds, has to be discussed separately, and I don’t disagree with your arguments there. The federal government should not collect nor distribute money for schools, nor do much to regulate them. I completely agree with your point about local control. The state governments should do much less and largely differently than most of them do. A good move for a state would be to use state colleges and universities to write and publish free e-textbooks that schools may use if they wish, and allow the schools to have those printed if they wish to. They could produce lesson plans, and provide a repository for lesson plans from various successful schools. This would provide basic resources to districts with limited funds. The key is that the schools must have the choice whether to use any of these resources or not.

Thanks,

Jim Melendy

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