July 2011 – Chaos Manor – Jerry Pournelle

Terror, Deficits, etc. Mail 685 20110731

By Jerry Pournelle | Jul 31, 2011 - 5:19 pm | Updated: July 31, 2011 - 5:23 pm | Mail

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Mail 685 Sunday, July 31, 2011

· Possession of child porno

· Federal and local terror

· WWII and the Depression

· Rolling back government (No Cut)

· Balanced Budget

· Laser Pointers

PFC Abdo

You said:

“I had not heard that and I don’t know. I would not think that making bombs was part of a clever way to avoid prosecution for possession of child pornography. Incidentally, I don’t really think that possession of pornography should be a punishable crime or that making it a crime is constitutional. Looking at pictures isn’t a crime. Acting on what you see is. PFC Abdo is welcome to spend his life looking at any pictures he likes if that were left to me. Making bombs is another matter.”

I agree with you regarding the issue of possession of pornography as not a criminal issue. It appears that our lawmakers have confused cause and effect. (Most pedophiles have child pornography, therefore child pornography causes or increases child abuse). In many states (including California and Texas) the penalty for possession of child porn is much greater than the penalty for actually raping a child. But it is not a subject of rational debate in today’s society, and no politician was ever turned out of office for being too hard on (perceived) crime against children.

But that was not my main point. I see PFC Abdo as acting according to what one might call the Butch Cassidy Effect. (I just coined that, BTW). That is, when faced with almost certain confinement for committing a crime, the criminal choses to go out in a “blaze of glory” rather than pay the piper. Faced with doing time in a federal prison, Abdo was prepared to blow up his fellow soldiers to “make a statement.”

This type of nihilistic thinking scares me as much or more than actual terrorism. It does not bode well for my three sons who will be in this world after I am gone.

But despair is a sin. <sigh>

Lee

Or, just maybe, he prefers to be jailed as a Muslim terrorist rather than for possession of child pornography given the usual fate of child molester suspects in prisons? Of course much of our prison system seems designed to meet the definition of cruel punishment; it would be cruel and unusual if it were not common. I am not sure I have any remedies to that.

Fullerton Police Beating & Police State

Dr. Pournelle:

There is no explanation for this beating and people are right to be scared. Scott Greenfield’s blog is right on point:

http://blog.simplejustice.us/2011/07/30/theres-no-explanation-for-this.aspx

But with a United States where the Dept. of Education has a SWAT, but where a federal judge blasts the prosecutor for waiting 2 1/2 years to indict an alleged NSA leaker, and then dropping all of the 10 felony charges (leaving one misdemeanor charge) a week before trial, why is anyone surprised?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/national-security/judge-blasts-prosecution-of-alleged-nsa-leaker/2011/07/29/gIQAfFcDiI_story.html

quis custodiet ipsos custodes?

Lee

These are not comparable cases. The Fullerton situation is adequately dealt with by the local press and local political means; it is not necessary to make this horror a Federal Case, although it will be used as an example of why Federal power ought to be expanded. Yet I would be less afraid of the Fullerton Police (who have, under local pressure, taken the officers involved off the active duty list) than of Federal authorities.

How WWII ended The Depression

Dr. Pournelle —

There’s an interesting article in this weekend’s WSJ refuting the Keynesian argument about how WWII ended The Depression.

World War II Stimulus and the Postwar Boom by Richard P. Rumelt

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903554904576458413656841844.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEFTTopOpinion

"Government policy didn’t stimulate personal consumption, as Keynesian policy makers aim to do today, but rather enforced thrift. "

Rationing and diversion to war use kept people from purchasing, therefore the increasing salaries of the remaining work force went to savings and paying down personal debt. Millions of milkitary personel were taken out of the work force and sent to places where it was almost impossible to spend the meager wages they did receive. After the war, as factories shifted to peacetime manufacturing, these savings became available for consumer products. [However, since much of the savings was in the form of war bonds, the savings weren’t immediately available and were gradually freed up.]

Unfortunately, as Rumelt points out:

" If one wanted to replay the economics of World War II (without the war), it would mean high consumption taxes aimed at the middle class, and putting 30 million Americans to work at minimum wage or less. No serious politician could put forward such a plan. "

[The only other way is for there to be a major shift in attitudes away from consumption and towards saving and avoiding debt, something I don’t see happening soon.]

Pieter

The relationship between WW II and the end of the Great Depression is not fully agreed, but as noted, price and wage controls were employed as well as the enormous demand the War created. The boom came about with Freedom and the end of the war demands. In any event the situation is not comparable.

rolling back government

Dear Dr Pournelle – the relentless expansion of government appears to afflict many, if not all countries. If we assume that the career length of most employees, government or otherwise, is about 40years, the annual replacement rate, if there were no premature fatalities, and the numbers stayed static, would be about 2.5% per year. If government were to reduce recruitment to 1% of the established staff on a given year, after a few years staffing levels would fall due to natural wasteage of more retiring than were being recruited. Public service unions would more than likely resist this, but they should be made aware that the country does not exist to provide them with work entirely on their own terms. The longer steps to curb this expansion are postponed the harder it will be, but it has to be done sooner or later.

Sandy Henderson

Yes. It is important to note that NONE of the “Deals” being agreed to cut ANYTHING. The latest “deal” we have heard of says they will “cut” a Trillion over a ten year period, which means a 7% exponential growth of government and a similar growth in the Deficit. And of course this will mean we pay higher interest rates, which is equivalent to a rise in taxes on all of us. See today’s View.

The Debt Ceiling Dance

Dr. Pournelle,

This reminds me of the movie Groundhog Day. We keep reliving this and over.

More spending now.

Spending cuts later.

Appoint a bipartisan panel to solve the problem.

The media acts like they have never seen anything like this before.

But as you say, if something can’t keep continuing, it will stop.

Steve Chu

We are not yet Portugal or Greece, but wait a while.

Balanced budget amendment

Hello Jerry,

While I am all for ‘balancing the budget’, it may be well to remember that a constitutional amendment mandating a balanced budget will be the equivalent of an amendment mandating massive tax increases, because you can bet your sweet bippy that the Democrats WILL NOT COUNTENANCE an actual reduction in spending. Ergo, because of the constitutional requirement, taxes WILL be raised. Dramatically. As required by the newly amended constitution.

Lucky us.

Bob Ludwick

I have to agree. A “balanced budget amendment” would be an automatic tax raise. Year after year. The remedy is to stop electing liberals.

Clark Gable III arrested for pointing laser | Video | abc7.com

Jerry,

http://abclocal.go.com/kabc/html5/video?id=8279508&pid=&section=news/local/inland_empire

I understand the potential safety issues of higher pored lasers. However; laser pointers are limited to low power to ensure that they can’t injure someone and the tiny optical diameter results in a large diffraction angle. The average person would be unable to keep it aimed at a helicopter unless it was attached to a rifle with a scope at which point the laser would be irrelevant.

Jim Crawford

Yes I have wondered about the danger of laser pointers pointed at aircraft or car drivers. It can’t be all that great.

Obama at the Bat CLEVER…WATCH!

YOU JUST GOT TO LOVE THIS ONE,A REAL CLASSIC — WILL BE SENT OVER AND OVER AGAIN I’M SURE.

AN INSTANT CLASSIC!!!!!!

SOMEONE HAS SPENT A LOT OF TIME ON THIS….

Click here: Obama at the Bat http://www.angelfire.com/ak2/intelligencerreport/obama_at_bat.html

J

With apologies to Jarry Cologna, I’m sure…

Deficit and Hama Rules View685 20110731

By Jerry Pournelle | Jul 31, 2011 - 3:46 pm | Updated: July 31, 2011 - 4:08 pm | View

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View 685 Sunday, July 31, 2011

· Arab Ramadan replaces Arab Spring

· The Deal: Doubling the Deficit

Ramadan Intervention

Ramadan begins: the Syrian Government is renewing the army’s assault on the rebellion, according to Al Jazeera; there are armored personnel carriers in the streets, as well as armor; there are tanks firing against structures; it looks to be a full assault on at least one village. One wonders if they will invoke Hama Rules again. Thousands of troops, hundreds of armored vehicles, fighting block to block. President Obama has said that he is horrified. His last comments, before he was horrified, were that this was unacceptable. This appears to be where Libya was a few months ago before the US and NATO and the UN Security Council came to the rescue of the Libyan people.

The official reason the UN is not intervening is that in Syria they are not using helicopters and aircraft. Our half arsed intervention in Libya was to impose a no-fly zone, which we then extended to air strikes against Khadaffi’s armored units. Slowly, slowly, the Libyan rebels advance toward Tripoli, but they don’t have a lot of strength outside Cyrenaica. At least they have a secure base which can be recognized as a government. Progress in Libya is slow, but so long as the US is willing to borrow money to pay for the rebel ammunition it will probably continue. The slaughter in Syria is greater than ever, possibly far greater than it was in Libya, but since there are no aircraft involved a no-fly zone can’t be imposed, and not much will happen.

We have an army in Iraq, not all that far from Syria, and it wouldn’t take a lot to use it to impose regime change in Syria; surely that has occurred to some of the neo-cons, and perhaps even to Obama. It will certainly have occurred to Netanyahu, but US-Israeli relations are not very good just now, and it is unlikely that Netanyahu has even discussed this (or much else) with Obama.

Note that I am not advocating US intervention in Syria. Our success in Libya, which is much smaller and has an actual rebel army in the field and a rebel territory with something like a government, makes it pretty clear what would happen if we decided to intervene in Syria. When the US decided to intervene in the territorial disputes of Europe back in World War One AKA The Great War, the results were, at best, mixed, and one could say that they led to the German crisis, The Weimar Inflation, the Weimar collapse, and the rise of National Socialism. Our intervention in World War II was decisive, but the aftermath was the Cold War, the enormous expansion of US government, deals in which the Liberals would allow the Cold Warriors to prosecute the war in exchange for Social Progress like the Great Society, and such. Note that I was a dedicated Cold Warrior and I am not being apologetic over our WW II European intervention. I do wonder if it would have been needed had we not been inveigled into The Great War.

Our interventions in the Middle East, beginning with the Bush I liberation of Kuwait, have had ambiguous results at best, in part because we didn’t have any objectives. Straight Imperial tactics would have liberated Kuwait, and kept it as an American protectorate, with the installation of a monarchial government friendly to the United States, and US development of oil resources which would pay tribute to the US as a means of paying for the country’s liberation.

Straight republican tactics would have installed a military government which would then write a new Constitution for Kuwait, reducing the Royal Family – which spent its time in exile in the London Casinos – to a monarchy that reigned but did not rule.

Neither happened. We then drove into Iraq, defeated the Iraqi army, and halted. We encouraged uprisings against Saddam Hussein, but did not support them, with terrible results.

Our interventions in the Balkans resulted in a mess. Kosovo was handed over to illegal immigrant Albanians, who quickly used ethnic cleansing to get rid of the Christians who had held Kosovo for a thousand years.

Our interventions in Afghanistan, and in Iraq the second time, resulted in quick victories followed by long and expensive wars of attrition which could only be won if we could establish that being friends with the Americans was a better long-term deal than working hard not to antagonize enemies.

Our interventions in the territorial disputes of Europe and the Middle East have been expensive.

Ramadan is approaching. In August. It’s going to be hot and dry in the Middle East. Arab Spring is ended. Arab Ramadan 2011 begins. What will we borrow money to do now?

Deficit Deals

As of 1500 PDT there is still no Deficit Deal in Washington. There are now some serious people betting that there won’t be one.

The rumors are that there will be no new taxes but there will be a “deal” that includes revenue enhancement, namely elimination of “loopholes” such as deductions for mortgage interest (which is a raise in taxes for all those evil people with mortgages who have not yet be foreclosed on; clearly they deserve higher taxes); and elimination of deductions for state income taxes. One supposes the argument for that says, well, look at all the public services the people in high tax states get, that’s income, so why should they not have to pay federal taxes? It’s only fair. Or, if you’re so dumb that you will stay in a high tax state, you deserve to be taxed; like lotteries, it’s a tax on stupidity. In any event, it is being established that there can be revenue enhancements through “closing loopholes” and that isn’t really raising taxes.

Whatever the outcome here, it’s pretty certain that the 7.3% exponential increase in government spending – and thus Deficit – will continue. There may be “cuts” that bring the exponential growth to below 7%. Assume as low as 6%. Assume 6%. This means that the Deficit will double in 13 and a half years instead of in 11 years. So the best we can hope for from these Deals is a two year delay in doubling the national deficit. Hurrah!

At some point this has to stop. It can’t go on forever. But it sure can go on past another couple of elections or at least the politicians think so.

As of 1530 both the Tea Party and the Liberals have resolved not to support whatever the latest Deal is. Perhaps it is time to make some contingency plans for a government shutdown.

Clearly no one expects the government to shut down. There is almost no discussion of what one ought to do, just in case. Having a few hundred dollars in cash can’t hurt.

* * *

The new version of Fallen Angels complete with the Afterword by Niven, Pournelle, and Flynn, is now available from Amazon. Those who bought the older version can download the new one free although you will lose any bookmarks or notes you may have made.

Boehner 3; still no cuts View 20110729

By Jerry Pournelle | Jul 29, 2011 - 4:50 pm | Updated: July 31, 2011 - 2:37 pm | View

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View 685 Friday, July 29, 2011

· There Will Be No Cuts

· How to Have Real Cuts

· Terror in Fullerton

· Do NOT Buy Fallen Angels! (Wait just a bit) Wait is over. BUY IT NOW

There will be no cuts.

Boehner has changed to Plan Three. That has apparently passed the House.

The Club for Growth had previously opposed the Boehner Plan, but said this:

The last 24 hours have been nothing but chaotic…to say the least. As you know, the Club opposed the Boehner Plan leading up to last night’s scheduled vote in the House. It lacked the structural reforms that would actually fix our debt situation permanently. Thankfully, when Speaker Boehner realized that he didn’t have the votes, he pulled the bill and improved it.

He did that by inserting language that makes passage of a Balanced Budget Amendment to the Constitution now a condition to releasing the second debt ceiling increase a few months from now. Because of that, the Club withdrew its key vote against the plan. While nothing is certain, the bill is now expected to pass the House.

Going forward, as the Senate decides to make its move, it’s critical that a Balanced Budget Amendment remain part of any final bill. It’s the catalyst to this whole debate.

Note that it’s the Club for Growth that says a Balanced Budget Amendment is crucial: I have not said that. As several of you have indicated in mail, that’s a formula for automatic tax growth, not for thrift. The only way to cut the budget is for the Congress to appropriate less money.

The acquiescence of the Club for Growth seems to have done the job: apparently the House passed the Bill. It now goes to the Senate, where the strategy will be to Amend in two ways: remove restrictions on spending, and add revenue increases i.e. taxes. It will then be sent to a conference committee. Note that it will be sent as a House Originated Bill, not a Senate Bill. It will have an HR number. This will be important because the Democrats will add “revenue increases”, and revenue bills must originate in the House. When some monstrosity that bears no resemblance to the Boehner Bill is returned to the House and the Republicans reject it, the President will then go on TV and read from his teleprompter that the Republicans are forcing the nation into default.

Of course I hope I am wrong on this. (Later: The Bill was immediately tabled in Senate, and will not be voted on. No one wants to be on record on this, so t here was no vote. What the Senate will now propose is a mystery.)

Do note that even if the Senate passes the Boehner Bill exactly as it passed the House, There Will Be No Cuts. At best there will be some reduction from the inevitable growth of government spending from, say, 8% to, say, 5%. This will be trumpeted as Trillion Dollar Cuts, but in fact the Debt will Continue To Increase by Trillions of dollars. Make no mistake. There will be no cuts.

How To Cut

The only way to actually cut the budget would be for the House to include in every appropriation a phrase to the effect that revenues appropriated under this resolution shall not exceed some specific amount lower than the amount spent on this last year. Better would be a blanket resolution limited all appropriations to no greater than 99% of the amount spent in the previous year. That would make for a 1% cut, actual cut, in the amount spent, in the growth of government, and in the growth of the national debt. Of course some exception would have to be made for debt servicing, because the Debt is going to continue to rise even if we get Real Cuts, and will grow wildly if we continue on the course we are set.

Meanwhile the President is proud of raising the gas mileage requirements for car. That ought to grow the economy for us. And of course the people who enforce all that will need more money. As will the Department of Agriculture Bunny Inspectors and the Department of Education SWAT team who will continue to get their pay raises, medical benefits, and fully funded pensions. None of that will change. And the Deficit will rise by Trillions. There are no proposals for actual cuts: the government will grow by 8% a year and any reduction in that growth is called a cut, but of course it is not a cut at all. A cut means an actual cut, and No One is proposing anything as drastic as that. Government will continue to grow. The Deficit will continue to grow.

Salve Sclave.

Terror in Fullerton

People in Fullerton California are protesting that six police officers alleged to have beaten to death a 135 pound schizophrenic white man for resisting arrest remain armed and on full patrol duty, and since none of the officers have been identified, everyone is terrified of any police encounter. Under the California constitution the primary law enforcement officer is the county sheriff, but we haven’t heard of any sheriff’s investigation. As of last count the FBI is now investigating.

I would have thought that it would have been better to keep these matters local, not make federal cases of them. From my view, entrusting protection of our rights to the Federal government is not a wise idea, and making the FBI the sole guardian of our rights is dangerous.

And yet: the Fullerton Police Department seems determined to protect the police, not remove any – there were at least six involved – from duty even with pay, and in general were set to ignore the incident until amateur video tapes went on line, and the London Daily Mail of all places published a story on it. The so-called video is not as graphic as the Rodney King case. There’s little video of what actually happened: it is mostly audio recording of unidentified witnesses commenting on what’s happening off stage. The situation is not as obvious as the King situation, and when the facts began to emerge it became even more inexplicable. Kelly Thomas was the son of a retired deputy sheriff. A number of LA Area radio personalities have become interested. But the officers involved have not been identified, and they are still on the streets carrying weapons. Which is why there is terror in Fullerton: the officials are afraid of the police unions, and the citizens are afraid that there are rogue police on the streets.

The Fullerton Fiasco will be remedied. We do not need Federal intervention. Let the sheriff and District Attorney do their work. A free press brought this out. I note that the city of Fullerton has offered a million dollar settlement in the hopes of making this go away, but that has been rejected.

DO NOT BUY FALLEN ANGELS JUST YET (Revision: OH YES YOU CAN! Buy it now!)

This has not been a productive day. I have discovered that the version of Fallen Angels posted at present for Kindle does not contain the retrospective afterword crafted by Niven, Pournelle, and Flynn. I am getting together the new file to post. I do not know what procedures Amazon has for getting the proper copies to those who have already bought it – please do not compound the problem by buying Fallen Angels until I get that fixed and Amazon puts it up. It will not be long. And I’ll try to find out how those who already bought the book get the book they paid for. If I have to I’ll buy them copies.

All right: I have uploaded Fallen Angels with the retrospective. I also cut the price to $2.99. When you see the book availab le for that price b uy a copy. Buy another and give it as a present. Tell your friends. It’s a good book.

If you already bought it and it didn’t have the retrospective, let me know. I’ll figure something out. And my apologies for all this.

It turns out that if you already own a Kindle book you can get a new download. Amazon has not, as of 2330 Friday put up the new version, but when it does, here’s what to do:

I believe if you go to the "Manage Your Kindle" page, you can re-download a title that you already purchased and downloaded before. You loose any bookmarks or highlighting, but you do get the latest version of the book.

….Rick…..(the web guy)

And no I have this from Amazon:

Hello Jerry,

Thank you for your cooperation in updating the content for "Fallen Angels." We’ll be glad to send an e-mail to customers who previously purchased your book to let them know an updated version is available.

At this time, we must receive their permission before sending the revised version to their Kindles because receiving the new version causes highlights, the last page read, bookmarks to be removed, and the locations of any notes won’t match the updated copy of the book.

We’re working on a long-term solution to improve this experience by automatically making the revised content available in My Kindle Library.

Thanks for using Amazon KDP.

However, as of this writing, 2300 Saturday, Fallen Angels is still listed as “publishing” meaning that Amazon has not made the new edition available.

1430 Sunday: Fallen Angels is now Live on Amazon. Those who previously purchased it should download the new version, which will have the Afterword Retrospective.

Evidence and Global Warming and other matters of interest Mail 685 20110728

By Jerry Pournelle | Jul 29, 2011 - 12:04 am | Updated: July 29, 2011 - 12:04 am | Mail

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Mail 685 Thursday, July 28, 2011

· Birth of Fire

· PFC Abdo

· Quote of the year

. Evidence and Global Warming

· Earth’s Trojan Asteroid

· The Pournelle Plan

Birth of Fire review

Dr. Pournelle,

My review of Birth of Fire is up at Amazon:

http://www.amazon.com/review/R3L01RV57BJAZO/ref=cm_cr_dp_perm?ie=UTF8&ASIN=B005EAWPFY&nodeID=133140011&tag=&linkCode=

I had to read the book in one sitting, it was that good. Thank you!

Because Amazon is not the place for politics, there’s one thing I didn’t mention in the review. Because I didn’t realize that this was a decades old reprint, I read into it a lot of commentary on our current social and political climate. I really did think it was a comment on Bunny Inspectors and Department of Education SWAT teams and runaway taxation to pay for unaffordable government. My guess is it’s not an accident that you chose to reprint this particular book at this particular time.

I look forward to more of your back catalog on Kindle. I have every one of your books and Niven’s that they offer, and I’m eager for more.

Martin L. Shoemaker

Thank you. That is a rather perceptive review. I am glad that Birth of Fire has held up so well over the years, and you didn’t realize it was not a new work until you finished it.

PFC Naser Jason Abdo

Dr. Pournelle:

PFC Naser Jason Abdo is not a Muslim extremist, he is apparently a possessor of child porn who got caught and was going to be court martialed for it. He had requested and obtained conscientious objector status based on his faith. Problem is, the Army put that on hold pending his court martial.

The “blow up Fort Hood” thing was apparently an afterthought. Maybe he thought he’d get 40 underage virgins if he died for Jihad?

Lee

I had not heard that and I don’t know. I would not think that making bombs was part of a clever way to avoid prosecution for posession of child pornography. Incidentally, I don’t really think that posession of pornographym should be a punishable crime or that making it a crime is constitutional. Looking at pictures isn’t a crime. Acting on what you see is. PFC Abdo is welcome to spend his life looking at any pictures he likes if that were left to me. Making bombs is another matter.

Quote of the year so far

“If you think you have a right
to force me to pay for your health care,
then why don’t you have a right
to force me to pick your cotton?”

Just controversial enough to make people think.

Would make a good bumper sticker. A bit too big for a ball cap, alas.

J

We have a number of new items on Global Warming and Climate Change Models

Global Warming Fraud Update

Well, more NASA data against anthropogenic climate change. Time and common sense strike again? We knew the polar bear data was fake, but now the scientist making that claim is — finally — under investigation according to the Associated Press:

<.> Just five years ago, Charles Monnett was one of the scientists whose observation that several polar bears had drowned in the Arctic Ocean helped galvanize the global warming movement. Now, the wildlife biologist is on administrative leave and facing accusations of scientific misconduct. The federal agency where he works told him he’s being investigated for "integrity issues," but a watchdog group believes it has to do with the 2006 journal article about the bear. </> http://news.yahoo.com/apnewsbreak-arctic-scientist-under-investigation-082217993.html

But, I digress, here is the NASA data I promised – or a Forbes article about it. :

“NASA satellite data from the years 2000 through 2011 show the Earth’s atmosphere is allowing far more heat to be released into space than alarmist computer models have predicted, reports a new study in the peer-reviewed science journal Remote Sensing. The study indicates far less future global warming will occur than United Nations computer models have predicted, and supports prior studies indicating increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide trap far less heat than alarmists have claimed. Study co-author Dr. Roy Spencer, a principal research scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville and U.S. Science Team Leader for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer flying on NASA’s Aqua satellite, reports that real-world data from NASA’s Terra satellite contradict multiple assumptions fed into alarmist computer models.” http://news.yahoo.com/nasa-data-blow-gaping-hold-global-warming-alarmism-192334971.html

I’m sure you know how to undertake research and get to the studies if you have questions about the data. For other readers, consider the article first and then search in a library using academic and proprietary research services. Many public libraries have resources like Ebsco, ProQuest, etc. ——–

Most Respectfully, Joshua Jordan, KSC Percussa Resurgo

Roy Spencer has a number of good criticisms of the Climate Change Models. I do not talk about frauds; but I do think that it is bad science. The models depend on data accuracies that they cannot prove, and now the evidence is that the Earth radiates more energy to space than the models suppose. That changes their predictions, but I don’t see many changes in the models.

Real data may tell the tale!

http://news.yahoo.com/nasa-data-blow-gaping-hold-global-warming-alarmism-192334971.html

John F. Gothard, Ph.D.

I would have thought that real data was the essence of science, but in the climate modelling game that does not appear to be the case.

New NASA Data Blow Gaping Hole In Global Warming Alarmism – Yahoo! News

Jerry,

This is definitive but should surprise no one given the fundamental physics of radiative heat transfer. The equilibrium temp of the Earth is proportional to the Solar Constant, the Earth’s Albedo and IR Emissivity raised to the one-fourth power. I know even the global warming alarmist understand this, but they ignore or trivialize mechanisms that increase effective emmissivity, particularly the process of evaporation, convection and condensation over the tropical oceans that effectively short circuits the greenhouse effect.

http://news.yahoo.com/nasa-data-blow-gaping-hold-global-warming-alarmism-192334971.html

Jim Crawford

And what we tell you three times is true. Apparently the Earth loses more energy to space than the models assume. One wonders about the accuracy of the other transfer parameters in the models, including earth core to ocean. And the IPCC models know from nothing about clouds.

At some point we might have an objective study about the ideal level of CO2 in the atmosphere. We might be able to remove some of the CO2 with biological engineering systems; we certainly cannot, short of conquest of developing nations, shut down the CO2 sources. And conquering China has not, historically, been a good thing for would be empires. Is it the destiny of the US to keep everyone else in poverty so that they will not emit CO2?

I never thought the liberals would shriek in such an asinine fashion and it’s Pelosi! She must be on the way out; she has to know how ridiculous this sounds:

<.> Nancy Pelosi on today’s vote: "What we’re trying to do is save the world from the Republican budget. We’re trying to save life on this planet as we know it today." </> http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/pelosis-reactionary-liberalism_577709.html

Trying to save life as we know it on this planet today from a lower number of promised, increased spending? Saving the world from more heavily taxed Americans who might spend their money doing nefarious things like ruining life as we know it on this planet today? The world is at threat from a Republican budget? I am beginning to think that when you fail acting class and don’t get to Hollywood that you might end up in Washington.

It gets better!

Rep. James Clyburn (D-SC): "I’ve said time and time again, if the President gets up to August 2nd, without a piece of legislation, he should not allow this country to go into default. He should sign an Executive Order invoking the 14th Amendment and send that to all the governmental agencies for us to continue to pay our bills. He could do that with a stroke of a pen.

"We’ve seen many big things done in history that way. I’ve joked with my staff the other day, ‘tele me what was the bill number of the Emancipation Proclamation.’ It was an Executive Order. We integrated the armed services by Executive Order. We integrated public schools by Executive Order. Sometimes executives must order that things get done." http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2011/07/28/clyburn_likens_executive_order_to_raise_debt_ceiling_to_emancipation_proclamation.html

If you are against the President’s budget then you must be racist! You are a holocaust denier if you don’t do what he says! I can’t believe you would take a position against mine; you are an evil person responsible for the deaths of millions! This is all the same crap Marxists pull on the streets. I saw videos of them doing this crap. This is the same crap the President did from day one. When will this Don King con get exposed to enough people for them to stop the insanity? I do not know.

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

I am not astonished that Clyburn would call for rule by executive action, but I do not think the Congress will surrender meekly.

Subj: Earth’s Trojan Asteroid Companion

http://www.latimes.com/news/science/la-sci-trojan-asteroid-20110728,0,284121.story

jim

Cool news,

http://www.latimes.com/news/science/la-sci-trojan-asteroid-20110728,0,284121.story

My first thought was that visiting a Trojan would take more Delta Vee than a Hohman Transfer to Mars. Then I realized that all you needed to do was boost a ship into an orbit with a slightly longer or shorter period (brain cramp, is this a trailing or leading Trojan?), let the ship drift to the Trojan object, then match trajectories. Of course the Moon is closer, takes less time and Delta-Vee, and we no how to build mass drivers.

Jim Crawford

PS, it was amusing to have you refer to the Nebish sharps committee.

LaGrangian poits are fun…

The Pournelle Plan = The Penny Plan

Jerry:

You should check out Connie Mack’s "Penny Plan". It does what you’ve specified, in that each year it starts from the assumption of zero built-in increases, and each year calls for true cuts equaling one penny on the dollar of the full budget from the previous year (hence the name "Penny Plan"). After 6 years of that, it caps spending at 18% of GDP, and the budget becomes fully balanced in the eighth year.

Combine that with a Balanced Budget amendment (to get around the issue of future Congresses not being bound by the plan), and it’s a pretty simple and relatively painless solution to the problem.

But since that makes far too much sense, I predict it will go nowhere fast… but I thought you’d like to know that there ARE some like-minded individuals in Congress that align with your thoughts.

Barry Kearns

Subject: Graph of Budget Projections and Actuals

Great graphic showing Federal budget projections and actuals. Guess what? The reality is always worse than the prediction. So, in the future…

http://flowingdata.com/2011/07/26/how-the-deficit-got-so-big/

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Dwayne Phillips

Very revealing. Thanks!