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THE VIEW FROM CHAOS MANOR

View 464 April 30 - May 6, 2007

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Monday, April 30, 2007

Before we start: radio talk show hosts who ought to know better are now saying that the Clintons took from the CIA the authority to operate in the United States. They ought to know better. For better or worse, the FBI has always had exclusive operations jurisdiction in the US and the Caribbean, this from the first days. The Bureau and the Company have always disliked and distrusted each other. Clinton did make some changes in the way the Company operates, none of them for the better in my judgment, but much of what I am hearing from both sides in this matter is nonsense. I haven't read Tenent's book (which is causing this storm) but I will.

We now return to the debate that began last Saturday. First go read that material.

So far we have Oliver North's statement, and Greg Cochran's critique. We will continue that shortly.

There are three points to keep in mind here. First, the war is going to cost considerably more than $100 billion a year, for many years. It is also going to exact a huge price on the composition and morale of the Army. A long overseas war inevitably makes for a different Army -- and National Guard. It almost by definition cannot be an army of citizen soldiers with families and ties in the United States. Do not neglect that cost.

Second, there will be a heavy cost in US credibility of commitment. One cost of Viet Nam (incurred by Kennedy who authorized the removal and resulting murder of Diem)  was the message that if you invite the United States to come help you, you personally may not survive. A second message was that even if your country prevails and wins with the aid of the US, it still may not survive against a determined enemy because the US will abandon you. For good or ill, a US withdrawal from Iraq will send similar messages now. (Of course no one in Iraq invited the US in. Chalabi and the exiles did, but Chalabi has got smart enough to distance himself from the US once it was clear that he could not ride in triumph to Baghdad and install himself on the throne of the Hashemites.)

Third: the US is a uniting force in the Middle East, but the union is one of opposition to US meddling. Syria and Iran are not going to cooperate to make life easier for us if we stay in the region. For good or ill, we are seen as allies of the Israelis, and very good allies at that, who put Israeli interests ahead of US interests. We need not debate the truth of this hypothesis; whether the US actually puts Israeli interests ahead of US interests is not important in this matter. If you want to see what non-Israeli people in the Middle East think of the United States, here is a source sent by a reader some time ago:

This link shows how media manipulation is almost a second front in the Israeli Palestinian conflict. The video is an hour and 19 minutes long, on Google, and I found it compelling and frightening. One has to wonder how many peoples opinions are being modified by techniques such as these and on how many topics.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-6604775898578139565&pr=goog-s

I have hesitated to post this link because while it is important, it is hardly a balanced presentation. I have asked Joel Rosenberg to comment on this film with a view to posting his comment with the link, but he hasn't had the time. His comment is now in preparation. He also sends this link:  http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=3330818905742409257&safe=off
 which is quite relevant to the discussion. I present the first link here because this film is mild compared to what is generally circulated among both Christian and Muslim Arabs in the Middle East, and for that matter is considered fair and balanced among many Americans, Christian and Muslim, of Middle Eastern and Levantine extraction. It is important in considering what the US should do in the Middle East to understand what Middle Eastern people think they know.

Let me emphasize this again: that film shows what most of the non-Israeli people of the Middle East (and for that matter many of the non-Jewish citizens of Israel) believe to be true. Any military or political solution to the Iraqi situation must take this into account.

Fourth: Iraq was never a nation, and rebuilding it into one is not possible without a long-term occupation force. The Kurdish region, which at the moment is a staunch ally of the US, will not submit to a central government of Iraq without considerable pressure and force -- and its forces cannot stand up to the Turkish Army. And while Turkey is divided between its secularist Army and an Islamist majority, the entire Turkish populace is united in opposition to an independent Kurdistan on its borders. Note that Turkey is the closest thing to an ally in the region that Israel has. Note that Turkey and Iran have many differences, but are united in opposition to an independent Kurdistan.

There are other points of debate, but these will do for a start. Responses will be in Mail.

==

 

 

 

 

 

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Tuesday, May First, 2007   

  There is new material in yesterday's debate. Go read that first.

Here is Joel Rosenberg's comment on the propaganda film. My apologies for its delay: it got stuck in a spam filter even though Joel is of course whitelisted.

Sorry I didn't get back to you sooner. I finally made the time to watch that rather long video all the way through. Nice production values; much better than the usual Pallywood production, despite all the BBC footage. Pretty good agitprop, although without the flair of, say, Michael Moore.

I'm sure you'll be familiar with the points made at http://www.jcrc.org/israel/p3l/P3L-Review.pdf  -- from the beginning, the filmmakers deliberately distort the history around 242 (it wasn't accidental that 242 carefully avoided talking about Israel withdrawing from "all" or "the" territory seized in the 1967 War or that it established a quid pro quo for withdrawal -- the famous "land for peace" formulation) and don't stop there.

I'm not sure how much of the BBC footage that was included was a Pallywood production -- but do let's not forget that the BBC is sufficiently embarrassed by its own anti-Israel bias that it's deliberately suppressed access to an internal report on that very bias -- see http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/legal/article2398870.ece  .

As to Pallywood, it's a pretty slick operation -- as long as there's no cameraman filming stuff beyond the set. When there is, you get the unintentionally humorous video of the phony funeral procession, where some of the cast hasn't been clued into the fact that the body is still alive, and where they flee in terror when the corpse comes back to life when it gets dropped . . .

Actually, I think the lack of widespread broadcast of that particular video puts paid to the notion of the effectiveness of the Israeli agitprop operation -- hell, they couldn't even get the very best of Pallywood's Funniest Videos on NBC, CBS, ABC, or Fox . . . ? How many Americans know the name "Shalhevet Pass"? How many know that the "Jenin Massacre" was a deliberate hoax? That the Sabra and Shatilla massacres weren't even the largest massacres of Arabs by Arabs in Lebanon that year?

But, sure, this sort of stuff is, as you suggest, believed throughout the Arab world -- the same Arab world that thinks that 911 was a Mossad operation.

If this is what comes from the well-coordinated ZOG agitprop operation that Chomsky and Fisk obsess about, what would incompetence look like? Pallywood?

Kind of indicative, though, that the film was dedicated to the memory of Edward Said -- an Arab propagandist who, repeatedly and blatantly, lied about his own history in order to promote the Palestinian narrative . . . and was, as far as I can tell, just barely this side of never called on his lies by the mainstream US media. (Justus Reid Weiner's "'My Beautiful Old House' and Other Fabrications by Edward Said" -- see http://www.freerepublic.com/forum/a3ad97b0d3dbd.htm  for one copy -- remains the definitive debunking of Said's personal history.)

I'm tempted to spend a bit of time, well, fisking Fisk and Chomsky, but what would be the point? And if I'm going to do that, should I also point out that Pravda was not always entirely truthful?

If the point is that it's easy to get footage hostile to Israel from the BBC, or pious pronouncements from Fisk, and Chomsky, and the noxious Hussein Ibish, this isn't exactly news; if the point is that propagandists sympathetic to the Arabs will avoid discussing exactly how the Arabs of Judea, Samaria, and Gaza came to their present remarkably unpleasant lives, I hope that's well-established by now.

As to the filmmakers finding the hands of the Elders of Zion everywhere, again, no surprise.

That said, it's clear that much of the daily lives of the Arabs of Judea, Samaria, and Gaza are miserable*, although I did miss the part about how the most miserable of the miserable are the Gazans -- who, let's remember, are no longer under Israeli occupation, and are free to move about, planting rocket launchers where they will, from one end of Gaza to another.

But, sure, it's worse than unpleasant, and is clearly going to get moreso. Partially replacing the Arafat kleptocracy with Hamas hasn't proven a big win for the Pallies; granted, Abu Mazen and his "enemies" haven't found quite the right formulation for false promises to get the US and most of the European aid flowing again, although some certainly has. The UNRWA dole does keep coming in, but it's basically a recipe for permanent misery.

Yup; it's bad there, and it's going to get worse for the Palestinians. (Over the years, in our discussions, I've repeatedly pointed at the Malthusian tragedy that is Gaza -- it's getting worse there, and will continue to.)

Complain as they understandably will about checkpoints and -- more and more -- the Fence, it's clear from the results that it's just that Fence and those checkpoints that have seriously interfered with the ability of the erstwhile shahids to detonate themselves in pizza parlors and kindergartens, and until the horse learns how to -- err, the Palestinian Arabs learn that killing Jews is counterproductive, that's going to continue to be their problem.

Still, the filmmakers did seem to avoid their own logic, such as it is: if the cause of Arab terrorism are all the difficulties that the evil Israelis keep ratcheting up on the poor defenseless Palestinians, it gets hard to explain how the increase in restrictions since the Fence started going up has been met, by and large, with a decrease in detonating shahids. Is the frustration among the Palestinians somewhat less now when there were fewer checkpoints and fewer settler . . . and more bombings?

This is where, I suppose, the filmmakers would have my secret ZOG masters have me solemnly intone that Arafat, in the famous formulation, never missed the chance to miss the chance to have his Palestinian state and a real peace by playing Clinton and Netanyahu at Wye River and Clinton and Barak at Camp David, but I don't think there was a chance. The Sudetenland didn't assuage the German thirst for lebensraum, and Judea, Samaria, and wouldn't do the same for the Palestinians.

Well, I've rambled on enough, I guess; time to wrap this up with a solution -- and, of course, it's not going to be a practical solution, because, well, there isn't one. In the long run, there really only is room in what once was the Palestine Mandate for two states, not three. In the long run, the Arabs of Judea, Samaria, and Gaza are going to have to murder somewhere around six million Jews, figure out a way to get their Jordanian cousins to take them in . . .

. . . or see how much farther downhill they can go before they reach bottom.

best,

jr

 * And, frankly, one would think there'd be enough real misery to film that there wouldn't be a need to coach a fellow in a phony narrative about having delivered his child in an ambulance from the hospital room where the baby was delivered.

-- Joel Rosenberg http://twincitiescarry.com  http://joel-rosenberg.com 

"Miscellaneous is always the largest category." -- Walter Slovotsky

 

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WednesdayMay 2, 2007

I have errands all morning. My day seems to be eaten by locusts. The column will be up sometime today (it is done) and the Iraq1 debate continues. This is a matter of some importance.

I am back from one errand: the AAA battery service guy installed a bad battery. That's the source of my latest problem. I am having the Ford agency deal with this for me. At some point I will have a reliable car again...

This afternoon with luck I will finish two more chapters of Inferno; there are only 3 or 4 to go. I am weary of being nibbled to death by ducks...

 

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Thursday,  May 3, 2007

I am pleased to report that my automobile problems are over. My 1998 Explorer is working properly, and I ought to be able to get back to work now. I got several hundred words done yesterday afternoon, and I'll get more done today.

We are back on schedule. INFERNO ought to be done by the end of the month.

Meanwhile, A STEP FARTHER OUT, and TWO STEPS FARTHER OUT, are being formatted as e-books. The first will be done in under a month, and the second not all that long after. Both will be made available to subscribers when they're ready. I'm slowly adding content to the subscriber section.

The debates on the future in Iraq have been productive.

And now I need to get to work...

=======

I turned on George Noory tonight. Oh my good heavens! It's zeta talk! We control gravity, can disappear into another dimension, IQ 287 on average, have the means to teleport, eliminate the repulsion force and it's faster than light, much faster, this is hard for humans to visualize, end of Zeta talk

Holy moley. If you missed it, it is not describable. End of zeta talk.

http://www.zetatalk.com/poleshft/p00.htm

 

 

 

 

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FridayMay 4, 2007

Chaos continues at Chaos Manor, but it is beginning to be organized. Provided that I don't starve first, I should finish this novel in a few weeks. As I write this I have email from Niven returning what I sent him yesterday. I'll have a look before my walk.

My days keep being swallowed by tiny time thieves, but I should get through another chapter this afternoon.

It is probably time for me to write an essay on the history of deposing presidents while bringing a defeated army home, although I am horrified at the necessity of doing so: it used to be that most of those who thought to engage in politics knew a fair amount of history.

But now it is time for a walk.

===

I have come back and updated the mail page. The Iraqi debate continues but it will close soon as there is little new to say.

Cleaning up some URL's I have left in my log that may be of interest:

You may find http://www.flickr.com/photos/edyson/436978253/ amusing

And http://www.poetry-archive.com/m/opportunity.html has a poem we were required to memorize in fifth grade, a practice I recommend.

http://www.netscape.com/viewstory/2007/03/22/
astronomical-theory-of-climate-change/?
url=http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/milankovitch.html&frame=true  is a good discussion of climate and astronomy. http://www.hindu.com/thehindu/holnus/008200704260942.htm may give you something to think about.

And http://www.zetatalk.com/poleshft/p00.htm will astonish you. End of zeta talk.

Now to go work.

You will like http://blog.gildertech.com/index.php?/
archives/44-Good-news,-Mr.-Gore,-the-Apocalypse-has-been-postponed.html

It is long, and you may read it in chunks, but I saw little I would not agree with.

http://www.dixiescv.org/ole-rebel.html

=================

Frank Gasperik, RIP

He could be maddening sometimes. When he worked for me, he would play Rogue even though there was plenty to get done. The last straw was when Roberta found him asleep in front of the screen -- which was showing Rogue.

He was also enormously loyal, and inspired several memorable characters. Those who read Lucifer's Hammer, Footfall, and Fallen Angels will know the kind of person Frank wanted to be and sometimes was.

Many years ago when I rode motorcycles we rode up to Northern California along the Pacific Coast Highway. I didn't know much about the machines, but Frank kept both of them running -- and managed to sing for our supper. He had brought his guitar. I was willing to pay for drinks in order to get people's stories, but Frank saw to it that we never had a bar bill. It made for a memorable trip and I collected a number of characters.

So Hairy Redd is gone. We'll miss him. Farewell, old friend.

This aye night, this aye night, every night and all
Fire and fleet and candle light and Christ receive thy soul.

From Brig o' Dread whence thou may'st pass, Every nighte and alle,
To Purgatory fire thou com'st at last;
And Christe receive thy saule.

If ever thou gav'st meat or drink,
Every nighte and alle,
The fire sall never make thee shrink;
And Christe receive thy saule.

 

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Saturday, May 5, 2007

I have posted a new bloc of J0anne Dow's Daily Diatribes.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Sunday,  May 6, 2007

He can't possibly be right, now can he?

http://www.fredoneverything.net/GAO.shtml

- Paul
 

 

 

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This is a day book. It's not all that well edited. I try to keep this up daily, but sometimes I can't. I'll keep trying. See also the monthly COMPUTING AT CHAOS MANOR column, 8,000 - 12,000 words, depending.  (Older columns here.) For more on what this page is about, please go to the VIEW PAGE. If you have never read the explanatory material on that page, please do so. If  you got here through a link that didn't take you to the front page of this site, click here for a better explanation of what we're trying to do here. This site is run on the "public radio" model; see below.

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