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THE VIEW FROM CHAOS MANOR View 341 December 20 - 26, 2004 |
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| This week:
Monday
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Monday
December 20, 2004
I have to go into Beverly Hills this morning. Some observations on return. There is mail. I have a very suspicious email purporting to be from paypal about adding a mail address to my account. I certainly didn't do that. There is what looks like a link to paypal that will ask me to log in, but I have no faith in that. Attempts to make contact by telephone or even by email have revealed a system impervious to reason: if there is not a checkbox category for what you want to do, there is no way to do it. For instance, when I say I want to report a fraud, I have to tell them what fraudulent transaction took place. There is no fraudulent transaction. There is a phishing attempt or what looks like one, so cleverly done that I have no way to be sure. That is, there is a link in the email to me telling me that a porn site has been added to my list of email addresses in paypal. That link looks like it goes to paypal, but how would I know what it does? It asks me to log in to my account; but of course I have no way to know where that user name and password will go. It looks like it's going to paypal. Attempts to telephone get the message that they are overwhelmed so I am pretty sure this is a phishing expedition. I see nothing suspicious in my paypal account itself. More investigation shows that this thing is really fraudulent, and clever, although looking closely shows it cannot possibly be from paypal. I have sent a copy to Mr. Hellewell, meanwhile, BE CAREFUL OUT THERE. HERE IS THE PHISHING EMAIL You have added phoneseller @yahoo.com <http://www.
videoclub.pl/.invalid/.paypal/pl/> as a new email address for your PayPal
account. Here is the header in part: Return-Path: <nobody@Yasmeen.favo.tv> Which you can see is mighty suspicious. If I click their link I get what looks like a paypal login page. Clearly I am not about to use it. This is a clever phisher. Note that I have only seen this in plaintext: I am not about to turn it into html. ==================== ABOUT BYTE Subscriptions The intent was to make more content available to more people; it does not seem to have been implemented well. Hang on, things will be improved. Many of you have written to inquire, or complain, or blast, or damn our eyes, and I have dutifully forwarded a representative sample to the editor in chief, who assures me things are being done to make this work better and better to explain what they are doing. CMP is a large outfit merged in with another large outfit, and the mills of these gods grind slowly, but they grind exceeding fine: things will happen. It's not the way CMP was when the Leeds family owned the whole empire and decisions could be made instantly (one reason McGraw Hill which was publicly owned had problems competing: CMP could often offer ad rates below what would be McGraw Hill's costs in paper alone, and publicly traded companies had regulatory impediments to trying to counter such practices; but that was back in the old days). Things will get better, please be patient. ============================
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Monday
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Tuesday, December
21, 2004 Winterset Going for a walk. Back with more on phishing shortly. We have a long analysis by Mr. Hellewell. Dr. Pournelle: It is also available here. More discussion of this incident in mail. ==================== ABOUT BYTE Subscriptions The intent was to make more content available to more people; it does not seem to have been implemented well. Hang on, things will be improved. Many of you have written to inquire, or complain, or blast, or damn our eyes, and I have dutifully forwarded a representative sample to the editor in chief, who assures me things are being done to make this work better and better to explain what they are doing. CMP is a large outfit merged in with another large outfit, and the mills of these gods grind slowly, but they grind exceeding fine: things will happen. It's not the way CMP was when the Leeds family owned the whole empire and decisions could be made instantly (one reason McGraw Hill which was publicly owned had problems competing: CMP could often offer ad rates below what would be McGraw Hill's costs in paper alone, and publicly traded companies had regulatory impediments to trying to counter such practices; but that was back in the old days). Things will get better, please be patient. ============================ And to break your heart:
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/national/204604_whale21.html Song of the Sea, a Cappella and Unanswered December 21, 2004 By ANDREW C. REVKIN Imagine roaming the world's largest ocean year after year alone, calling out with the regularity of a metronome, and hearing no response. Such, apparently, is the situation faced by a solitary whale, species unknown, that has been tracked since 1992 in the North Pacific by a classified array of hydrophones used by the Navy to monitor enemy submarines. The animal is called the 52 hertz whale because it makes a distinctive stream of sounds at around that basso profundo frequency, just above the lowest note on a tuba. Its sonic signature is clearly that of a whale, but nothing like the normal voice of the giant blue or the next biggest species, the fin, or any other whale for that matter, said Mary Ann Daher, a marine biologist at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution on Cape Cod. <snip> ======================== And on PHISHING I got another one, this time purporting to be from WAMU. Be careful out there. ================================ Subject: Seitz column for link http://www.techcentralstation.com/122104B.html Merry Christmas Russell Seitz I am always pleased to draw attention to Russell's work. This one is on armor and recycling...
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Wednesday,
December 22, 2004 Merry Christmas. My friend Yoji Kondo called to wish me a Merry Christmas. He's not supposed to say that at NASA HQ where he is a senior scientist. His wife, Ursula, grew up in Germany during World War II. They were not supposed to greet each other by saying Gruss Gott; instead it was to be Heil Hitler. I reminded Yoji of that, to which he replied, "Well, as least they understood why they were to say that." It's not quite so clear why one is not supposed to wish one's fellows a Merry Christmas. So Merry Christmas. On an entirely different subject, look at http://www.world.honda.com/HDTV/ASIMO/200412-run/index.html think about it, and tell me what you thought.
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Thursday,
December 23, 2004 Niven will be over shortly for a hike, so I'll get more up later. Merry Christmas. Subject: Hydro Pulse Irrigator Dr. Pournelle: I recently read a article on the DRUDGE REPORT discussing the possible outbreak of a pandemic and the lack of effective antibiotics and the importance of nasal irrigation as a natural tool to help treat and protect against influenza. After seeing the Hydro Pulse on your web site and your comments, and those of others, I purchased one and I have to tell you for the first time in over twenty years I don't have the nagging post nasal drip and I have avoided any colds which I always get this time of year even though I have flown a great deal which only heightens my chance of colds. Thanks for the great tip and for letting your readers know about good health it is a priceless gift. Alice Paul, MN
=========================== A discussion in education of the brightest. This from another forum: Discussion began with a description of a program for highly gifted. Private program, and expensive, which drew this remark [emphasis added]: $2600 for 3 weeks at a Johns Hopkins summer camp seems awfully steep. These kids are so bright that they are mostly self-taught. Also, the camps should be all summer long to teach them much more. Then they should continue on in the program into the fall if they did well enough in the summer. What is needed for the super-brights are plenty of DVDs of lectures on a lot of tough but important subjects. That'd be cheaper than the camps. Some wealthy philanthropists ought to pay Arthur Jensen to deliver lectures on various aspects of psychometrics. Also, a philanthropist could make a big difference by paying to send psychometrics books such as Arthur Jensen's "g Factor" and similar books to each kid that qualifies for one of these camps. Also, books on statistics and population genetics ought to be given to the kids. Then phone numbers they can call with questions and web sites with private discussion groups could allow remote teaching of them on these subjects. Imagine someone like yourself spending a half hour a day answering questions on the web or by phone from super-brights as part of an organized program. That got me to say: As one of those long ago identified as "super bright" (by the Whiz Kids radio show competition; I wasn't eligible because my father worked for the radio station but they didn't know that when I took the tests) let me tell you that "self education" without discipline doesn't work very well. Sure, I knew more about history than most college students because I had a good memory, I liked history, and Costain, Scott, Macauley, Henty, were available -- you see the pattern? From my view Henty and Costain were more interesting than Macauley, although I read them all and many other such books. But I had no systematic foundation for what I knew, and it wasn't until I got to West Point Prep (US Army Military Academy Preparatory School, Newburgh NY in those days) that I got any systematic view of history. It was much the same for science and everything else. I knew a lot about what I knew, but until High School I had no guidance on what I didn't know and didn't know that I didn't know... For years I went to Capleville Unified, which was 2 grades to a room, and Normal School (2 year) teachers. With two grades to the room I had a lot of time to read in school, which was just as well, and the school library had mostly classics since they were cheap compared to the latest stuff by moderns. The superbright are generally self-educated because they have to be, since their teachers generally are not as smart as they are -- I didn't meet anyone I was forced to acknowledge as being in my league on smarts until I got to the University of Iowa in 1953 where I had classes from George Mosse, Kurt Lewin, physics from van Allen, and epistemology and logic from Wendell Johnson. But self education without some guidance from people who know what education is, is a poor substitute. Believe me. My math education was sad until I got to college because no one told me I needed to know any of that stuff. Which got this, which is the reason I am putting all this up: Jerry, I totally agree with what you are saying. Guidance is important. But sharp and wise guidance does not have to wait until the kids go away to college at age 18. Take just history as an example: Imagine someone video recorded (with highest HDTV resolution or even higher and with two or three cameras) all the history lectures of Samuel P. Huntington, David Landes, and a few dozen other top notch historians who teach history in the large. Make a list of the best guys and find out which ones will work most cheaply to have their stuff recorded and made generally available. A similar process could be done in physics, math, and other areas with the brightest minds teaching what they think are important things to know. This is a project so obviously needs to be done. Then superbright kids too young to live away from home can watch lectures made by superbright CalTech, Harvard, Stanford, and MIT professors. This could be done with math, physics, population genetics, psychometrics, and many other subjects. I bet Luigi Cavalli-Sforza would like to have his lectures live on after he has passed on. I bet some other eminent scientists feel likewise. It is too expensive and difficult to concentrate the brightest kids together physically when they are young. But it could be done virtually. They could be given contact with each other and access to the teaching of top minds fairly inexpensively. DVD replication costs are very low and dropping. Computer costs are low and dropping. What is needed are for some philanthropists to pay to start generating the content. I think in many cases the content would be cheap to generate. Emeritus professors or grad students could be used. Has anyone made high res videos of Arthur Jensen's lectures? Probably not. How about Frank Salter, Vincent Sarich, Linda Gottfredson, and assorted other names that we here are familiar with and respect? Which is a great idea. I would pay a lot to have been able to expose my children to George Mosse's lectures on Western Civilization. Someone should be working to set this up. And the web is in fact a good tool for getting really bright kids together with people who understand the value of systematic instruction. Also a note to the above: my high school teachers may or may not have been smarter than me, but the Christian Brothers full well understood what an education was, and the value of systematic instruction; and they didn't care who was the brightest as a competition thing, they simply devoted their lives to getting the most out of every student they encountered. Thank God for such men. ==============
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Friday,
December 24, 2004
O ye, beneath life's
crushing load,
Look now! For glad and golden hours
Yet with the woes of sin and strife,
And man, at war with man, hears not
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Monday
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Saturday,
December 25, 2004 The Feast of the Nativity, commonly known as Christmas Merry Christmas and Happy New Year The Torino scale is like the Richter scale for asteroids.
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Monday
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Sunday,
December 26, 2004 The Feast of St. Stephen, Deacon and Martyr If you have time for serious matters, Ed Hume reminds us: Subject: Victor Davis Hanson on Donald Rumsfeld, http://www.nationalreview.com/hanson/hanson200412230821.asp === Interesting for two reasons: first, it's all true; and second, it demonstrates a return to at least partial sanity of Victor Davis Hanson who seems to be breaking with young Kristol and the national glory neo-con crowd. I did not think the invasion of Iraq was a good idea at the time, but once we go there, there was a job to be done; and as with any military operation, the great thing is not to lose your nerve. I have friends who want to have the entire Bush administration shot for treason, for taking us into the wrong war at the wrong time with the wrong equipment, etc., etc. They seem incapable of understanding that they may be wrong: that it is not impossible that the way to a more stable world does involve taking the war to the enemy. Saddam may well not have been a supporter of Bin Laden, but after the fall of Afghanistan there would inevitably have been pressure on many states -- Iraq, Iran, Libya come to mind as well as some of the smaller and more vulnerable principalities and sheikdoms of the region -- to accommodate al Qaeda and its allies. The Iraq operation closed off many of those possibilities, by making it clear that even to appear to aid the enemies of the United States was a very bad idea. That much was accomplished. We do not see large training camps and recruiting grounds of the kind we were very much accust0med to see prior to our invasion. Yes: I have my reservations, and had I been in charge we would not have invaded Iraq without both more preparation and more evidence of Saddam's complicity in actions in concert with our enemies; but Saddam was conveniently expendable, disliked by everyone, and his sons worse yet; no one mourns those monsters as few will mourn Saddam himself. And his fate, confinement in a 5 meter cell, is an object lesson to many others. We are there; and the great thing is not to lose your nerve. Helmuth von Moltke the Elder had many memorable observations on war and the nature of war. One of his maxims is that no battle plan survives contact with the enemy: something that the US should have known before going into Iraq carrying the liberation banners but with Chalibi and his advisors just behind them carrying quite a different message, Second, that in war, in the last analysis, good fortune and luck come only to the well prepared. And for another, in a letter of commentary on a forthcoming manual on International Law: "No paragraph learned by rote will convince soldiers who are in fear of their lives every moment of the day and night that an unorganized civilian who picks up a weapon of his own free will is to be viewed as anything but a regulation enemy." Something to keep in mind. He continues: "Individual demands of the manual may not be feasible, e.g., establishment of the identity of the fallen after a great battle. Consideration should be given to the insertion of modifying phrases such as, "circumstance permitting," "if possible," or "if necessary." Without such elasticity, the bitter seriousness of reality will burst the bonds laid upon [soldiers]. "In war, where everything tends to be comprehended individually, only those paragraphs directed essentially at the leaders will, I believe, be effective. Among these are the what the manual wants to establish with regard to the wounded, the sick, doctors, and medical supplies. Universal recognition of even these principles, as well as those concerning treatment of prisoners, would already represent substantial progress toward the goal which the Institute for International Law strives toward with such praiseworthy steadfastness. Most respectfully, Count Moltke ================ In war everything is very simple but the simplest things are very difficult. We need to keep that in mind next year. ================================= An administrative note: the BYTE.COM web site and the CMP access system in general seem to be in turmoil. I am fairly certain that order will come from this chaos. The intention is to give subscribers more. Like some military operations, the execution may fall a bit short of the intent. At some point all will be well. ========== In next month's column I'll have things to say about disk drives and programs for their maintenance and recovery; and of course the annual Orchids and Onions parade. If you have nominations for the Orchids and Onions Parade, now is the time to send them to me, here. ==================== Boss, They seem to be putting the odds of a Krakatoa-sized event due to asteroid strike at about 1 / 242, with some as low as 1 / 42. I look for the appearance of robed Comet Wardens praying to stop the strike any day now. Hot Fudge Sundae falls on a Friday... Latest update: it's 1 / 37 now.
This is a day book. It's not all that well edited. I try to keep this up daily, but sometimes I can't. I'll keep trying. See also the monthly COMPUTING AT CHAOS MANOR column, 8,000 - 12,000 words, depending. (Older columns here.) For more on what this page is about, please go to the VIEW PAGE. If you have never read the explanatory material on that page, please do so. If you got here through a link that didn't take you to the front page of this site, click here for a better explanation of what we're trying to do here. This site is run on the "public radio" model; see below. If you have no idea what you are doing here, see the What is this place?, which tries to make order of chaos.
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