| Thursday,
April 10, 2003 The breaking news is Plutonium in a big
underground facility at Iraq's nuclear research site.
The news is all about "weapons grade Plutonium" which will
very likely turn out to be false, and not about the huge underground
complex that Hans Blix and his ace inspectors never found; and the
aftermath of the story will be that there wasn't any "weapons
grade" Pu and therefore the war was needless.
I would say that hiding a large underground nuclear research facility
from the UN inspectors was itself the big story, but that is likely to be
lost in the noise over "weapons grade" Pu.
They say they found "Yellowcake" and it was more radioactive
than it should be. "Yellowcake" is Uranium Oxide, and is a term
often used for refined Uranium ore. It would then be sent to an enrichment
plant. It will typically have a very low U235 content; enrichment will
bring up the ratio of U235 (actively radioactive) to U238 (more or less
nuclearly inert, "depleted"). If what was supposed to be
Yellowcake is more "radioactive" than it should be, then we need
to know more about "how much more" and what kind of radiation is
given off. As you can see here:
U-238 Beta Decay Energy: B- -147.065 +- 1.145 keV
U-235 Beta Decay Energy: B- -123.716 +- 0.869 keV
Pu-239 Beta Decay Energy: B- -802.912 +- 2.011 keV
The energies and decay properties should make it easy enough to see if
there is Pu present, but without reasonably sophisticated tests, a larger
proportion of U-235 than usual in Yellowcake can make it "more
radioactive" than was supposed.
We will just have to wait and see, but I won't be terribly surprised if
there was no "weapons grade" plutonium.
"Fuel grade" Uranium is on the order of 10% U-235 and is
almost always in oxide form. "Weapons grade" Uranium is about
90% U-235 and is generally in metallic form. I don't know much about Pu.
They did have some experimental Pu fuel rods at the San Onofre SCE nuclear
plant some 30 years ago when I did an article on "America's Looming
Power Crisis" and had access to (and toured) many power facilities in
California, Nevada, and New Mexico, but I didn't note the composition at
the time. I would presume "weapons grade" Plutonium to be about
90% metallic. Plutonium is exceedingly dangerous stuff to get inside you
(it's not all that horrible if ingested, it's getting particles in the
lungs that will kill you), and it's not likely to be around in Yellowcake.
However, when they said "Yellowcake" I assumed they meant Pu
mixed with Uranium oxides. This can be the result of using Pu in a
reactor. Pu is also a possible product of power fission processes (the
amounts can be varied depending on geometries and other matters) but that
will be contained in the fuel rods. Fuel rods before they go into the
reactor are not dangerous. Once they have been in a reactor they are
hideously dangerous.
Pu isn't all that violently radioactive -- that's why the half life is
in tens of thousands of years -- and was thought not to occur naturally
until a couple of decades ago a "natural reactor" -- a Uranium
ore site with a geometry such that water could pool in it and serve as a
moderator -- was found in, I believe Nigeria (certainly somewhere in
sub-Saharan Africa). The natural reactor had been operating for thousands
of years and had generated some Pu meaning that Pu has been found in
"nature" and thus is not exclusively a "man - made"
element like Californium.
I would be much surprised to find "weapons grade" plutonium
in a research facility. But any Pu at all is interesting.
As I said, the real story is a large nuclear research facility
underground and never seen by the weapons inspectors. Clearly it was
hidden for what seemed good reasons to Saddam and Company.
AND SEE MAIL
The Marine who put the US Flag over Saddam's head was persuaded to take
it down, and it and a pre-Saddam Iraqi flag were displayed together there.
The rest of the story as Paul Harvey would say:
The American flag covering The head of the statue of
Saddam in Baghdad was originally flying at the Pentagon on 9/11/2001.
< http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,5944-641318,00.html
>
Charles Butler
Which makes it fitting enough...
German Embassy in Baghdad sacked
Should they send the bill to the UN?
Amparion
http://start.earthlink.net/
newsarticle?cat=7&aid=410122419_5303_lead_story
"The German Embassy, a three-story
off-white building in the center of al-Karada district, also was sacked.
Looters emerged with air conditioners and computers. Mobs also cleaned out
the French Cultural Center... "
Awwww...
On looting, Saddam and company looted the country for decades. Sacking
his palaces seems fair enough; certainly would seem fair to those doing
the sacking.
For a very sane analysis of the situation in Iraq see
http://www.nypost.com/postopinion/opedcolumnists/72809.htm
Of course the same man wrote what is going to be his
worst embarrassment only a week or so earlier:
http://www.nypost.com/postopinion/opedcolumnists/33580.htm
But what the heck.
In another conference, a well known computer
entrepreneur and sometimes politician wanted to be on record that the Iraqi
War and occupation would be a disaster and seen to be that way, after the US
was forced out by suicide bombers in a year or so; and we would never
establish Jeffersonian Democracy over there. I decided it was time for
me to be on record:
PREDICTIONS
Let me be on record for some predictions about conditions over there
after a year:
First, the occupation will not be a disaster, although there will be
plenty of partisan politicians, coupled with friendly journalists, who
will say it is a disaster and natter about it until some proportion of the
US begins to believe it is a disaster; but in terms of numbers of
casualties to both US and Iraqi soldiers and civilians, once the fight is
over in about 4 weeks, the death rates to violence will be about the same
as in Harlem or South LA, and probably lower than that.
The number of suicide bombers will be small but non-zero, and at least
some contemplating suicide bombing will be turned in by Iraqis.
The number of Iraqis jailed or killed by government will be smaller in
2003 than it was in 2002 and a lot smaller than in 1992
There won't be "Jeffersonian Democracy" in Iraq or in the
United States of America, in a year or ten years.
In about a year there will be some semblance of rule of law, but it
will take about 3 to 4 years to actually set up the country in ways that
probably resemble Turkey but with oil, and a military that protects the constitution.
Building a military that doesn't try to run the country will be the tough
part, since there is no Ataturk to lead Iraq.
The Kurdish/Turkish situation will be damned tense, and the Turks will
want some oil revenues and may get them; but the Turkish/Iraqi border will
be more or less stable and there won't be more violence there than there
has been for the past decade and more.
The Shi'ite population of Iraq will begin make nice with their co
religionists in Iran, to the mutual benefit of both.
I could go on, but the bottom line is, it won't be all smooth and nice,
there will be problems, journalists and alarmists will try to say it is a
disaster, and the facts will say otherwise.
The disaster has happened already in the sense that there won't be
Jeffersonian Democracy either in Iraq or the Unites States, and the war
was one more nail in the coffin of the Republic, but the Republic was
probably doomed by our silly immigration policies to begin with
Welcome to the Empire. Hail to the Chief.
And another good sense analysis:
http://www.opinion.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/
main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2003/04/08/do0801.xml&sSheet
=/opinion/2003/04/08/ixopinion.html&secureRefresh=true
&_requestid=144398
Saddam's utter collapse shows this has not been a
real war By John Keegan (Filed: 08/04/2003)
The war in Iraq seems to be drawing to a close in
circumstances as mysterious as those that have surrounded its unfolding
from the beginning. The chief mystery now is the whereabouts of Saddam and
his entourage.
<snip>
But see Mail, since there
seems to be a view that Keegan has lost his marbles.
http://www.bigfatbaby.com/newfun2/flash/saddam.cfm
I sent a mailing to all subscribers today.
I have updated the badmail page so check
there. Many of you have full mail boxes and I can't do anything about
that. In general I have eliminated those whose mail is returned as
undeliverable. Instructions are on the badmail
page.
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