Mail 471 June 18 - 24, 2007

Chaos Manor Home Page> Mail Home Page > View Home Page > Current View > Chaos Manor Reviews Home Page

CHAOS MANOR MAIL

For CHAOS MANOR REVIEWS click here

CLICK ON THE BLIMP TO SEND MAIL TO ME. Mail sent to me may be published.

LAST WEEK NEXT WEEK

FOR THE CURRENT VIEW PAGE CLICK HERE

Atom FEED from Chaos Manor

Highlights this week:

Pros and cons: Anthrax vaccination
Harry's Letter Fr0m England
Glacier Growth
Education and physics
Global Cooling
Droids

If you send mail, it may be published. See below. For boiler plate, instructions, and how to pay for this place, see below.

This week:

Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Sunday

TOP

Monday June 18, 2007

Jerry,

I'm terribly sorry that I haven't had time to email you any updates from out here in the Middle East, but I would like your guidance on something of a personal nature. Maybe your uber-smart crew of technical advisors can help too.

I just found out that we civilians here in the Middle East who are working for the DoD must decide if we are willing to take the Anthrax vaccination shots. If we take them, we can stay and keep working. If we don't take them, we have to leave.

I an prior Active Duty US Air Force and didn't have to take it when I was in, so this is a HUGE decision for me.

My problem is, I am having a hard time finding objective (or seemingly objective) information on the side effects of this particular vaccination. I have found a lot of material on both ends of the spectrum:

- DoD - It's Perfectly safe! - Others - It will make you sterile, impotent, unable to work, etc.

I cant seem to find anything in the middle, but I don't know if I just cant find the right information in my searches.

My question is, what would you and/or your advisors do if YOU/THEY were in my position? Would you take the shots or not? I've already talked it over with my family and am close to making my decision, but I would appreciate an opinion from some of the smartest people I know on the net.

Thanks!

Name withheld by request.

My son Phillip was required to take the shots. He did. I don't have statistics on the subject, but I don't think the military has had any great disasters as a result of anthrax vaccines.

It's a matter of comparative risks. If you take the shots the upside is you get to stay and work and neither you nor your employer has to worry a lot about that particular form of terror attack. If you don't take the shots, you won't be there to worry about. There is always a risk with vaccinations. Always. The side effects run from the most probable (negligible) to permanent crippling (rare as far as I know) to death (quite rare but not zero). You need to find the statistics and decide which way to bet.

Neither the government nor your employer has much to gain from deliberately harming you with this.

==============

Letter from England

--Not a great many things happening this week.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?
xml=/news/2007/06/17/nweek117.xml

http://tinyurl.com/2gqewo

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.
jhtml?xml=/news/2007/06/17/nweek217.xml

http://tinyurl.com/yqqr3v

--Queen's birthday salute .

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.
jhtml?xml=/news/2007/06/17/nqueen117.xml

http://tinyurl.com/267kmp

--Why make it hard?

http://society.guardian.co.uk/voluntary/comment/0,,2104963,00.html

http://tinyurl.com/2qk4uw

--Civil war among the Palestinian factions.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/6760657.stm

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/world/story/0,,2104858,00.html

http://tinyurl.com/yp8n6j

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/06/17/wgaza217.xml

http://tinyurl.com/2swkze

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?
xml=/news/2007/06/17/wgaza417.xml

http://tinyurl.com/2bayvr

--Sarkozy winning in France.

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/world/story/0,,2104807,00.html

http://tinyurl.com/ywx8y8

--Blair knew US had no plan.

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/politics/story/0,,2104984,00.html

http://tinyurl.com/28o6nj

--Immigration backlogs in America.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/
wp-dyn/content/article/2007/06/16/
AR2007061601360.html

http://tinyurl.com/ypjn59

--Blair's argument with the press.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/17/
weekinreview/17word-ART.html

http://tinyurl.com/22alrk

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment
/columnists/simon_jenkins/article1942931.ece

http://tinyurl.com/2dukkt

(My opinion, too, but then I'm used to American newspapers, not the

toothless beasts they have here.)

--The church *is* doing something about this. An institution historically connected with the conservative side of UK society and currently losing parishioners and posts is finding it difficult to convince UK minorities that they won't be discriminated against. Most minority churchmen are non-European immigrants or refugees, but they do seem to have more initiative and to take their call more seriously--look at John Sentamu's background. I like working with them. The second story is also relevant to them and me.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?
xml=/news/2007/06/17/nchurch117.xml

http://tinyurl.com/2vsq6l

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/
columnists/minette_marrin/article1942934.ece

http://tinyurl.com/2qrelo

--Churches targeted by tealeaves.

http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/
crime/article2666481.ece#2007-06-17T00:59:16-00:00

http://tinyurl.com/2p3d52

--The European Constitution is back...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?
xml=/news/2007/06/17/neu117.xml

http://tinyurl.com/2kcfp8

--So we're loafers and shirkers in the North? Getting the short end

of the stick in the various post code lotteries and being

discriminated against in hiring, pay, and promotion aren't enough?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?
xml=/news/2007/06/17/ndole117.xml

http://tinyurl.com/37ft3p

--This story reflects the usual response here to innovation.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?
xml=/news/2007/06/17/nhs117.xml

http://tinyurl.com/2bu223

--Legal rift on anti-terrorism laws .

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?
xml=/news/2007/06/17/nterr217.xml

http://tinyurl.com/25nqtt

--Note where the US is on the graph.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?
xml=/news/2007/06/17/nrdebt117.xml

http://tinyurl.com/2z3a7a

--How the other side lives.

http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/
this_britain/article2653166.ece#2007-06-17T00:00:29-00:00

http://tinyurl.com/34p44a

--Tracking the children from birth.

http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/politics/
article2666405.ece#2007-06-17T00:00:29-00:00

http://tinyurl.com/2sg5yu

Harry Erwin, PhD, Program Leader, MSc Information Systems Security,

University of Sunderland.

http://scat-he-g4.sunderland.ac.uk/~harryerw

Weblog at: http://scat-he-g4.sunderland.ac.uk/~harryerw/blog/index.php

=========

THE YEAR OF THE RAT

If you're tired of worrying about loose nukes in Kazakhstan, consider this terrifying chemical wild card in al Qaeda's back yard

<http://adamant.typepad.com/seitz/2007/06/chinese_rat_tra.html>

Russell Seitz

========

Subject: oath of fealty

Dr. Pournelle,

After reading your Sat view update, I suspect that your recent Oath of Fealty release will be quite popular.

I suspect that a modern update of the story would be even more popular, but you have other priorities other than pandering to the retarded excesses of our elected elite...

Sean

Well it won't be out until next year, I think. Oath was always one of my favorites, and it was a NYT best seller. We thought of rewriting it but it's a good story as it is. We did a new introduction. Thanks for the kind words.

=========

Data stored in live neurons

Hello Dr. Pournelle,

Subject: One step closer to the Borg?

This New Scientist article reminds me of Larry Niven's "A World out of Time" in which memories from a 'corpsicle' are written into the brain of a criminal -- overwriting the old personality in the process. (By the way, you might hint to Niven that we gentle readers have been waiting for a sequel to that story for a long time.)

http://www.newscientisttech.com/article/
mg19426075.700-data-stored-in-live-neurons.html

***********

Information has been stored in live neurons for the first time, bringing closer the creation of "cyborg" computer chips that combine electronic circuits with human cells.

Networks of cultured neurons are known to spontaneously fire in specific patterns. Researchers have previously attempted to program these neural networks with new patterns, representing bits of information, by electrically stimulating individual cells. However, such zapping disrupts their spontaneous firing patterns, and for a network to successfully store information new firing patterns must be imprinted without erasing the old.

Now Itay Baruchi and Eshel Ben-Jacob of Tel Aviv University in Israel have taught new firing patterns to a network of neurons by targeting specific points of the network with a chemical called picrotoxin. The new patterns lasted for up to two days without harming the pre-existing firing patterns (Physical Review Letters E, DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.75.050901). "You can think of it like a Christmas tree with lights that flicker," says Ben-Jacob. "We imprinted another pattern of lights on top of the original."

Many believe that complex patterns of neuronal firing are templates for memory, which the brain uses when storing information. Imprinting such "memories" on artificial neural networks provides a potential way to develop cyborg chips, says Ben-Jacob. These would be useful for monitoring biological systems like the brain and blood since, being human, they would respond to the same chemicals. ***********

Cheers, Clyde Wisham

=========

Using Statistics to predict War's Outcome

Dr. P,

Too bad Rumsfeld & Co. didn't talk to the University of Georgia before opening up a trillion-dollar can of whoop-ass:

Based on Sullivan's model, the current war in Iraq has a probability of success of nearly 26 percent with an estimated duration of 10 years.

Here's the link:

http://www.uga.edu/news/artman/publish/printer_070611_Sullivan.shtml

Tony Ozrelic

And the text:

Athens, Ga. - Despite overwhelming military superiority, the world's most powerful nations failed to achieve their objectives in 39 percent of their military operations since World War II, according to a new University of Georgia study.

The study, by assistant professor Patricia L. Sullivan in the UGA School of Public and International Affairs, explains the circumstances under which more powerful nations are likely to fail and creates a model that allows policymakers to calculate the probability of success in current and future conflicts.

"If you know some key variables - like the major objective, the nature of the target, whether there's going to be another strong state that will intervene on the side of the target and whether you'll have an ally - you can get a sense of your probability of victory," said Sullivan, whose study appears in the June issue of the Journal of Conflict Resolution.

Sullivan said the most important factor influencing whether the more powerful nation is successful is whether its strategic objective can be accomplished with brute force alone or requires the cooperation of the adversary.

Driving Saddam Hussein's army out of Kuwait in the 1991 Gulf War and overthrowing his government in 2003 was a brute force objective that was accomplished relatively quickly, for example, but quelling sectarian violence and building support for the current government has been much more difficult because it requires target compliance.

"We can try to use brute force to kill insurgents and terrorists, but what we really need is for the population to be supportive of the government and to stop supporting the insurgents," Sullivan said. "Otherwise, every time we kill an insurgent or a terrorist, they're going to be replaced by others."

Based on Sullivan's model, the current war in Iraq has a probability of success of nearly 26 percent with an estimated duration of 10 years.

Sullivan analyzed all 122 post World War II wars and military interventions in which the United States, the Soviet Union, Russia, China, Britain or France fought a weaker adversary. She examined factors such as the type of objective (on a continuum from brute force to coercive), whether the target was a formal state, guerilla or terrorist group, whether the target had an ally and whether the more powerful nation had an ally.

She tested her model and found that it was accurate in 80 percent of conflicts. It predicted a seven percent chance of success for the Soviets in the 1979 to 1988 war in Afghanistan and a 93 percent chance of success for the U.S. in the 1991 Gulf War.

Previous researchers have hypothesized that more powerful states fail because of poor strategy choices or a lack of resolve. Sullivan agreed that those factors play a role, but stressed that those factors do not adequately explain or predict why powerful countries fail. She points out that more powerful countries have a greater ability to absorb losses from poor strategy choices and can more easily change strategies. An emphasis on resolve fails to explain victories such as the first Gulf War, when many analysts predicted a difficult war against a highly resolved but much weaker Iraqi army.

Sullivan said several factors contribute to the relatively low probability of success in the current Iraq war. Most importantly, the objective requires the support of the population and can't be accomplished by force alone. Factional infighting, the insurgency and possible insurgent support by countries such as Iran and Syria further undermine the chance of success.

"No one could have predicted exactly what would happen after we overthrew the regime of Saddam Hussein," Sullivan said. "But what my model could say was that if the population was not supportive of whatever new regime we put in power and the American strategic objective shifted from regime removal to maintaining the authority of a new government, the likelihood of a successful outcome would drop from almost 70 percent to just under 26 percent."

The research was supported by grants from the National Science Foundation and the Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation.

==========

problem based learning

Hi Jerry,

I read Harry Erwin's letter, and comments about his students, with interest.

There have always been the few (10%) who are really good, the several (20%) who are in over their heads, and the remainder who require external motivation. That said, I have the impression that the problem is worsening. It seems to me that students are, on average, less mature and more spoon-fed than they were 10 years ago.

There are lots of possible reasons. One is that both Harry Erwin and I teach computer science. It's not as popular a field as it was 10 years ago, and that has probably affected the average quality of student we get.

But there may also be demographic reasons. More students are still living at home - not independently. While this may be for financial reasons, it may also correlate to reaching maturity later. If mom is still doing the wash, it is perhaps easier to think college is the same as high school.

Finally, it seems to me that at least my school supports the immaturity of the students. As an example: we get evaluated by students. At the end of the semester, we get a graphical report showing green bars where the students rated us well, red bars where they rated us poorly, an yellow bars in between.

I'm of the opinion that any instructor with all green has failed to challenge his students. For example, in one course I usually get a yellow or even red bar for the written course material I give the students. This is a final year course, and I want to prepare the students for real life. So I give them references as starting points, but expect them to locate and read the source material themselves.

In my most recent evaluation by the department head, he pulled out these ratings, and was quite unhappy to see that I wasn't all "green". This became part of his official evaluation. Apparently the school's goal is to make the students happy, not necessarily to help them learn. Maybe I should go teach for Harry?

Cheers,

Brad --

- - - - - - - Dr. Brad Richards

======================

TOP

CURRENT VIEW Monday

This week:

Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Sunday

TOP

Tuesday, June 19, 2007

Jerry,

You may have seen this before...

http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2007-06-18-glacier-girl_N.htm?csp=1

But, for those who do not believe Glacial Ice can accumulate in a very short period of time...if things do not turn out as predicted for global warming (ice age instead) this is a harbinger of what can happen. Also note, Otzi the Ice Man who was buried under a glacier shortly after being killed in 3500 BC (no glacier atop him until after he died). The glacier is no longer there but if it had not been we probably would have only a few of Otzi's (sorry no Umlaut) bones.

Here is a story from USA Today about a plane that made a forced landing in Greenland during WWII. Relevant excerpts:

"The real estate developer from Phoenixville, Pa., was 2nd Lt. McManus on July 15, 1942, when he was part of one of the first flights of Operation Bolero, a massive transfer of military forces and equipment to Britain. McManus, who graduated from flying school the week Japan attacked Pearl Harbor in 1941, was piloting a P-38, one of six double-boomed, twin-engine fighters escorting two B-17 bombers. " ...

"The group was over Greenland on the way to a refueling stop in Iceland when the weather unexpectedly turned bad. "We had no place to land," McManus says. "It was pretty spooky. We were sweating it out."

"With five minutes of fuel left, he made an emergency landing on the ice cap. "It looked like a solid sheet of concrete," recalls McManus. It wasn't. His landing gear sunk, flipping the plane and pinning the cockpit in the snow. He crawled out with only a minor scrape. "

"The story didn't end there. In 1992, a privately funded team located Smith's mostly intact P-38 entombed beneath 268 feet of ice. Over four months, workers used a thermal generator to melt the ice and steam hoses to carve a cave around the wreckage before hoisting the fighter piece by piece to the surface. "

268 Feet of ice (not snow) in only 50 years! 5 .3 feet of ice a year! 1.6 meters a year!

How much does it have to snow for this much ice to accumulate? Is this, or was this normal for Ice accumulation in the Greenland Ice Cap? (OK, maybe it fell into a cravass, but then again, maybe not.)

Sincerely,

Olvier Richter - oliver.richter@gmail.com

Indeed. Detritus from Belgian lakes indicates that the low countries went from deciduous trees to evergreens only to ice in under a century the last time the ice came down...

===========

Cheap Chinese goods made by slave labor....

Good Morning:

http://tinyurl.com/2s5pzs

"In a wave of raids over the past week, Chinese police have freed more than 550 people, including children and the mentally handicapped, who were allegedly forced to work against their will in brick kilns and mines in Henan and Shanxi provinces in inhumane conditions, according to the state-controlled Xinhua News." ... "Local government officials and Communist Party members have been implicated in the human-trafficking scandal, which has seen 168 arrested and shocked the nation. ".... "Their case gained media attention after an open letter was posted online signed by a group of 400 fathers appealing for help in tracking their missing sons, who they believed were sold to kiln bosses."

I forget, why is it we embargo Cuban goods, but granted China Most Favored Nation status and fill our stores with their goods?

Regards,

John

John Harlow

========

Google pushes 100-mpg car

http://money.cnn.com/2007/06/19/news/
economy/google_plugin/index.htm?eref=rss_topstories

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Google said Tuesday it is getting in on the development of electric vehicles, awarding $1 million in grants and inviting applicants to bid for another $10 million in funding to develop plug-in hybrid electric vehicles capable of getting 70 to 100 miles per gallon.

Bill Shields

Good for them. No one is in favor of waste, and I sure like the idea of prizes...

=========

Sounds Like an Invasion to Me...

http://insider.washingtontimes.com/articles/
normal.php?StoryID=20070619-121814-2527r

"U.S. Border Patrol agents seeking to secure the nation's border in some of the country's most pristine national forests are being targeted by illegal aliens, who are using intentionally set fires to burn agents out of observation posts and patrol routes.

"The wildfires have destroyed valuable natural and cultural resources in the National Forest System and pose an ongoing threat to visitors, residents and responding firefighters, according to federal law-enforcement authorities and others.

"In the Coronado National Forest in Arizona, with 60 miles of land along the U.S.-Mexico border, U.S. Forest Service firefighters sent in to battle fires or clear wild-land fire areas are required to be escorted by armed law-enforcement officers.

"Armed smugglers of aliens and drugs have walked through the middle of active firefighting operations, the authorities said.

"The Border Patrol's Tucson, Ariz., sector, which encompasses most of the Coronado National Forest, has the highest incidence of cross-border violators in the nation. Nearly 500,000 illegal aliens were apprehended last year -- more than 30,000 a month. In addition, nearly 100,000 pounds of marijuana, with a street value of $200 million, was seized as it was hauled through the Coronado National Forest.

"Last month, the Border Patrol -- in a single operation targeting illegal aliens causing what Forest Service officials called "significant damage" to the Coronado National Forest -- apprehended more than 300 illegals along just a three-mile section of U.S.-Mexico border in Arizona and confiscated 600 pounds of marijuana in a 10-day period."

Charles Brumbelow

What else could we call it? Not that anyone cares.

========

Salman Rushdie receives knighthood

http://www.kxmb.com/News/134342.asp

"Buckingham Palace today is honoring iconic author Salman Rushdie.

The author of "The Satanic Verses" went into hiding after a 1989 Fatwa (FAHT'-wah) called on Muslims to kill him because the ayatollah believed the book insulted Islam.

He re-emerged after the Iranian government said it would no longer support the edict in 1998 nor could it rescind it.

Rushdie says he still gets a "Valentine's Day <http://www.kxmb.com/t/valentines-day> card" every February 14th from Iran, reminding him he is a marked man.

Today, he was knighted."

England has done more than its fair share of bonehead moves in the last quarter century, but Her Majesty the Queen deserves respect for her courage, among other things.

Graves

There are those who think she should not have done it. I am not one of them.

========

'Homeland security', Chicago-style.

http://www.aopa.org/whatsnew/
newsitems/2003/03-1-157x.html

-- Roland Dobbins

=========

Iraq alternative Timelines

Hi Jerry,

> Or we could have encouraged the southern Marsh Arabs to revolt, rise up against Saddam, then sent General Franks in to help them. We then write them a new constitution. They would have been grateful, they would have had oil revenue, and they would still be alive, and the marshes would not have become an ecological wasteland.

AFAIR exactly this happened during the first US gulf war. The Marsh Arabs were badgered into revolt but unfortunately Tommy Franks ( or some other valiant warrior from the land of the meddlers) was busy getting his ass back to Kuwait. (You will find only small hints of this on the EN wikipedia page "Shia uprising": http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marsh_Arabs. A bit more in depth info on the alternate language pages. german, .. )

Over the years I have observed an interesting disconnect of political perception between the US on one side and most other countries on the other side.

The press in Europe knew quite well that Chalabi was a fraudulent goon ( he has a jail conviction in Jordan for bank fraud ) no question that his backing was very limited (essentially to other iraqi "entrepreneurs" that had left the country. Only the US media and politicians were sure that this guy would be a shiny messias carying US interests and democracy into iraq.

uwe

The neocons thought Chalabi the Thief was going to take over in style. He promised a pipeline to Israel among other things. He hadn't spoken with Jordan about it, though.

Goon he is not. Chalabi is a survivor.

==========

The problem with music.

This piece contains some obscenity, so, if you decide to post it, I'd suggest putting a warning notice in the post. That being said, it's well worth a read; by the time you reach the end and look at the balance sheet, it becomes obvious that the real obscenity is what the major labels end up getting away with, IMHO. It's the kind of stuff Courtney Love (who has problems of her own, of course) was ranting about a few years ago.

http://www.arancidamoeba.com/
mrr/problemwithmusic.html

-- Roland Dobbins

==========

WORLD WAR 3.0 ?

Following lethal riots over the removal of a Soviet era Red Army war memorial , Estonia has come under Cyber attack from within Russia .

Phillip Ball reports in Nature on how the denial of use wave assaults are progressing and how the Kremlin is spinning it . I've posted the link with comments at

http://adamant.typepad.com/seitz/2007/05/world_war_30.html <http://adamant.typepad.com/seitz/2007/05/world_war_30.html>

Russell Seitz

========

Could this be true?

Both of the Shakespeare and Einstein?

Is the physics case perhaps mitigated by the depth of specialties? E.g. one could get into solid state physics and not "need" the rest?

http://www.popecenter.org/clarion_call/article.html?id=1843

Jay R. Larsen

That's all right. The world is safe: they don't have to teach Creationism in Kansas. So we're all right. Trust the experts.

TOP

CURRENT VIEW Tuesday

This week:

Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Sunday

TOP

Wednesday, June 20, 2007

Do you make your own powder for the sinus pump?

Jerry,

Do you have a formula for the sinus pump powder that I may use?

Thanks,

Phil

I usually buy theirs, but if I run out I use table salt and baking soda. I tend to the Morton's "Lite Salt" which is half potassium chloride.

I prefer theirs. It lasts a long time, and doesn't cost all that much. But I am given to understand that half and half salt and soda and their measuring thing works fine.

===========

Gaza multiculturalism

http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/
2007/06/more_gaza_multiculturalism.html

" Burning and destroying churches, desecrating Christian religious objects <http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/
2007/06/gaza_multiculturalism.html> , Hamas-style dhimmitude is on display for about 2000 Gazan Christians. An Islamic outreach leader recited <http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/
0,7340,L-3414753,00.html> the new realities:

"I expect our Christian neighbors to understand the new Hamas rule means real changes. They must be ready for Islamic rule if they want to live in peace in Gaza," said Sheik Abu Saqer, leader of Jihadia Salafiya, an Islamic outreach movement that recently announced the opening of a "military wing" to enforce Muslim law in Gaza.

Jihadia Salafiya is suspected of attacking a United Nations school in Gaza last month, after the school allowed boys and girls to participate in the same sporting event. One person was killed in that attack.

"The situation has now changed 180 degrees in Gaza," said Abu Saqer, speaking from Gaza yesterday.

"Jihadia Salafiya and other Islamic movements will ensure Christian schools and institutions show publicly what they are teaching to be sure they are not carrying out missionary activity. No more alcohol on the streets. All women, including non-Muslims, need to understand they must be covered at all times while in public," Abu Asqer told WND.

"Also the activities of Internet cafes, pool halls and bars must be stopped," he said.

And if not, if any of these activities of normal every day life continue without reaching the Islamic outreach leader's standard of approval,

"...we'll attack these things very harshly."

The world has just had a terrifying glimpse how they "attack these things very harshly," the residents a more horrifying one. They know how he'll keep his promise. Welcome back to dhimmitude."

Graves

They may finally manage to drive the Christian Arabs back into alliance with the Israelis, but probably not. The Israelis drove them away in the first place. Most Christians have abandoned the Holy Land for emigration to other places.

But isn't multiculturalism a wonderful thing? And how about them Dodgers?

============

"Iraq 'has ruined case for liberal interventionism'"

See http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/politics/article2675774.ece

-- Harry Erwin, PhD, Program Leader, MSc Information Systems Security, University of Sunderland. <http://scat-he-g4.sunderland.ac.uk/~harryerw> Weblog at: <http://scat-he-g4.sunderland.ac.uk/~harryerw/blog/index.php>

Nah. They'll be invading someone just as soon as they get in power. They have learned nothing and forgotten nothing.

TOP

CURRENT VIEW Wednesday

This week:

Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Sunday

TOP

Thursday, June 21, 2007

Happy Summer Solstice

We have literally dozens of messages regarding global cooling. I'll post a couple of them:

Global Cooling

http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/financialpost/
comment/story.html?id=597d0677-2a05-47b4
-b34f-b84068db11f4&p=4

"The mud at the bottom of B.C. fjords reveals that solar output drives climate change - and that we should prepare now for dangerous global cooling."

John Strohm

========

Dr. Pournelle,

Here is another example of global weather trends based on solar output...

Sigh,

It can be found at:

Read the sunspots

The mud at the bottom of B.C. [British Columbia] fjords reveals that solar output drives climate change - and that we should prepare now for dangerous global cooling, R. TIMOTHY PATTERSON, Financial Post Published: Wednesday, June 20, 2007

http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/
financialpost/comment/story.html?id=
597d0677-2a05-47b4-b34f-b84068db11f4&p=4

Here is what I have to "Sigh" about (some extracts):

"Politicians and environmentalists these days convey the impression that climate-change research is an exceptionally dull field with little left to discover. We are assured by everyone from David Suzuki to Al Gore to [Canadian] Prime Minister Stephen Harper that "the science is settled." At the recent G8 summit, German Chancellor Angela Merkel even attempted to convince world leaders to play God by restricting carbon-dioxide emissions to a level that would magically limit the rise in world temperatures to 2C."

"The fact that science is many years away from properly understanding global climate doesn't seem to bother our leaders at all. Inviting testimony only from those who don't question political orthodoxy on the issue, parliamentarians are charging ahead with the impossible and expensive goal of "stopping global climate change.""

and:

"Climate stability has never been a feature of planet Earth. The only constant about climate is change; it changes continually and, at times, quite rapidly. Many times in the past, temperatures were far higher than today, and occasionally, temperatures were colder. As recently as 6,000 years ago, it was about 3C warmer than now. Ten thousand years ago, while the world was coming out of the thousand-year-long "Younger Dryas" cold episode, temperatures rose as much as 6C in a decade -- 100 times faster than the past century's 0.6C warming that has so upset environmentalists..."

and most importantly:

"Climate-change research is now literally exploding with new findings. Since the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, the field has had more research than in all previous years combined and the discoveries are completely shattering the myths. For example, I and the first-class scientists I work with are consistently finding excellent correlations between the regular fluctuations in the brightness of the sun and earthly climate. This is not surprising. The sun and the stars are the ultimate source of all energy on the planet." ...

"Solar scientists predict that, by 2020, the sun will be starting into its weakest Schwabe solar cycle of the past two centuries, likely leading to unusually cool conditions on Earth. Beginning to plan for adaptation to such a cool period, one which may continue well beyond one 11-year cycle, as did the Little Ice Age, should be a priority for governments. It is global cooling, not warming, that is the major climate threat to the world, especially Canada."

As I said, "Sigh."

I can only imagine how silly Gore's book and movie "An Unpleasant Truth" and the Kyoto accords on global warming will look in 2020. Don't get me wrong, I believe that reducing air pollution can only have beneficial effects, especially, since I have one child who has asthma.

With highest regards,

Oliver Richter

global warming? right.

More confirmation the warmist alarmists do us no favor. Take a look at

http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/
financialpost/comment/story.html?id=
597d0677-2a05-47b4-b34f-b84068db11f4&p=4

"Our finding of a direct correlation between variations in the brightness of the sun and earthly climate indicators (called "proxies") is not unique. Hundreds of other studies, using proxies from tree rings in Russia's Kola Peninsula to water levels of the Nile, show exactly the same thing: The sun appears to drive climate change.

However, there was a problem. Despite this clear and repeated correlation, the measured variations in incoming solar energy were, on their own, not sufficient to cause the climate changes we have observed in our proxies. In addition, even though the sun is brighter now than at any time in the past 8,000 years, the increase in direct solar input is not calculated to be sufficient to cause the past century's modest warming on its own. There had to be an amplifier of some sort for the sun to be a primary driver of climate change.

Indeed, that is precisely what has been discovered. In a series of groundbreaking scientific papers starting in 2002, Veizer, Shaviv, Carslaw, and most recently Svensmark et al., have collectively demonstrated that as the output of the sun varies, and with it, our star's protective solar wind, varying amounts of galactic cosmic rays from deep space are able to enter our solar system and penetrate the Earth's atmosphere. These cosmic rays enhance cloud formation which, overall, has a cooling effect on the planet. When the sun's energy output is greater, not only does the Earth warm slightly due to direct solar heating, but the stronger solar wind generated during these "high sun" periods blocks many of the cosmic rays from entering our atmosphere. Cloud cover decreases and the Earth warms still more.

The opposite occurs when the sun is less bright. More cosmic rays are able to get through to Earth's atmosphere, more clouds form, and the planet cools more than would otherwise be the case due to direct solar effects alone. This is precisely what happened from the middle of the 17th century into the early 18th century, when the solar energy input to our atmosphere, as indicated by the number of sunspots, was at a minimum and the planet was stuck in the Little Ice Age. These new findings suggest that changes in the output of the sun caused the most recent climate change. By comparison, CO2 variations show little correlation with our planet's climate on long, medium and even short time scales."

and

"Solar scientists predict that, by 2020, the sun will be starting into its weakest Schwabe solar cycle of the past two centuries, likely leading to unusually cool conditions on Earth. Beginning to plan for adaptation to such a cool period, one which may continue well beyond one 11-year cycle, as did the Little Ice Age, should be a priority for governments."

Henry

And perhaps this is not correct either, but coupled with the glacier evidence it appears we have had a long warming trend and we may now be headed for a cooling trend. We'll see.

As I have said many times, before we spend our money on remedies, it will help a lot to know what is happening.

That's not good enough for the bureau scientists who want to control DOING SOMETHING although they don't understand what's happening.

TOP

CURRENT VIEW Thursday

This week:

Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Sunday

TOP

Friday, June 22, 2007

Good afternoon Dr. Pournelle, Fred's makes some good points here. http://fredoneverything.net/Bageant.shtml

Tim Harness

He does indeed. I grew up in Capleville, Shelby County (well until high school) and it was much the same. These are the people Jefferson saw as the hope of the future...

TOP

CURRENT VIEW Friday

This week:

Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Sunday

TOP

Saturday, June 23, 2007

I took the day off. More or less.

TOP

CURRENT VIEW Saturday

This week:

Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Sunday

TOP

Sunday, June 24, 2007

The SL lawsuit

On Friday you posted: >

http://www.wired.com/gaming/virtualworlds/news/2006/05/70909 > This may be one of the more interesting law suits, with some really interesting ramifications. The outcome ought to be fascinating.

Well, yes and no. The case is somewhat misrepresented in the media and does not directly address what most people mistakenly think it is about: legal rights regarding virtual property.

The primary focus is instead within the realm of consumer law. This would perhaps be more clear had the venue been within European legal jurisdiction. Specifically, did Linden Lab go too far when it froze and tried to confiscate the plaintive's *total* inworld assets, not just those related to the questionable land deal?

The main interesting point so far is what I noted Friday, 8 Jun 2007 ( http://leuf.net/NewKerfufflesInSecondLife#1 ), that the judge found the Linden Lab ToS "unconscionable" and essentially not legally binding in its entirety. Another point of contention is that Linden Lab failed to move the dispute to arbitration as stipulated by its own ToS -- it just closed the account and seized assets.

I have read numerous false analogies of what Bragg did, some trying to justify the hack as technically legal if unethical, some trying to depict it as illegal as outright theft. Neither extreme is correct.

One closest Net counterpart I can think of is to hack a payment-site URL to have it process an incorrect lower payment for a transaction at a merchant site, in the hope that the payment-successful message sent to the merchant site will trigger automatic shipment of goods. * Corresponding dispute: is it then appropriate that the shop later try to freeze all funds on the credit card used and have all goods previously purchased by that customer repossessed?

The closest real-world analog is probably for a shop customer to discover that he can sneak into a back stockroom, find a price-marking tool, and put his own price on some item not yet available on the shelf in the shop proper. Part of the picture is that POS terminal accepts the tag and the customer can walk out the door with the item having "paid" for it. * Again: is it appropriate that the shop tries to seize all customer assets within its reach and repossess all goods ever purchased by him?

Undoubtedly. the case may have consequences about the legal standing of ownership rights for virtual property, but then I think only indirectly, primarily in regards to the way the operator ToS is formulated.

For Linden Lab, the case is mainly about the evident contradiction about what has consistently been said about resident "ownership" of land, and the end-of-the-day operational interpretation as an arbitrary call by Linden staff making a mockery of presumed ownership rights. Not just of virtual land, but also of entire inworld business, collection of objects, invested resources, etc.

Bo Leuf

I doubt this will be the last of such lawsuits.

=========

Japanese firm exhibits droid construction worker,

Jerry

Most robots are not druids (short for android, or man-shaped robot, of course). However, this is a droid:

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2007/06/22/builder_droid_bot_crack/

We knew it would come, but $120k is pretty cheap.

It had to come. Are we approaching a singularity? Stay tuned...

=========w

TOP

CURRENT VIEW Sunday

The current page will always have the name currentmail.html and may be bookmarked. For previous weeks, go to the MAIL HOME PAGE.

FOR THE CURRENT VIEW PAGE CLICK HERE

If you are not paying for this place, click here...

IF YOU SEND MAIL it may be published; if you want it private SAY SO AT THE TOP of the mail. I try to respect confidences, but there is only me, and this is Chaos Manor. If you want a mail address other than the one from which you sent the mail to appear, PUT THAT AT THE END OF THE LETTER as a signature. In general, put the name you want at the end of the letter: if you put no address there none will be posted, but I do want some kind of name, or explicitly to say (name withheld).

Note that if you don't put a name in the bottom of the letter I have to get one from the header. This takes time I don't have, and may end up with a name and address you didn't want on the letter. Do us both a favor: sign your letters to me with the name and address (or no address) as you want them posted. Also, repeat the subject as the first line of the mail. That also saves me time.

I try to answer mail, but mostly I can't get to all of it. I read it all, although not always the instant it comes in. I do have books to write too... I am reminded of H. P. Lovecraft who slowly starved to death while answering fan mail.

Day-by-day...: Monday -- Tuesday -- Wednesday -- Thursday -- Friday -- Saturday -- Sunday

Search engine:

or the freefind search

Search this site or the web powered by FreeFind

Site search Web search

Boiler Plate:

If you want to PAY FOR THIS PLACE I keep the latest information HERE. MY THANKS to all of you who sent money. Some of you went to a lot of trouble to send money from overseas. Thank you! There are also some new payment methods. I am preparing a special (electronic) mailing to all those who paid: there will be a couple of these. I have thought about a subscriber section of the page. LET ME KNOW your thoughts.
.

If you subscribed:

CLICK HERE for a Special Request.

If you didn't and haven't, why not?

If this seems a lot about paying think of it as the Subscription Drive Nag. You'll see more.

FOR THE CURRENT VIEW PAGE CLICK HERE

Search: type in string and press return.

Strategy of Technology in pdf format:

birdline.gif (1428 bytes)