| Tuesday,
August 15, 2006
Begin with mail concerning the Lebanese War and Cease Fire:
RE: Monday Mail
You own it – if you’ve turned it into Trinitite.
This situation might come to that yet.
Israel made many mistakes here. Having decided to
fight back, they should have really fought back – and leveled, preferably by
conventional means, everything that would have made southern Lebanon
habitable. No inhabitants, no human shield and anyone in that area is fair
game, and no rockets fly.
But they didn’t. We’ll all be paying for that by and
by. Including all of Islam, after the first mushroom cloud rises somewhere
in the West.
Regarding the revelation of the explosive recipe; so
what? Much better recipes, including Sarin, are floating around on the Net.
And it was a common observation, when I was studying chemistry in the late
70s, that if you couldn’t blast open the building you were sitting in you
were a pretty poor chemist.
As it happens, I was creating, for fun, thermite when
I was 15.
Regards,
Ian Campbell
One view. Scorched earth in Southern Lebanon.
==
Why Israel Lost.
http://www.tcsdaily.com/Article.aspx?id=081406G
- Roland Dobbins
Which lays out a number of reasons for the
conclusion; and refers to
http://www.nypost.com/postopinion/opedcolumnists/lessons
_so_far_opedcolumnists_ralph_peters.htm
August 13, 2006 -- ISRAEL'S war against the
Middle East's first true terrorist army provides tough military and
strategic lessons - old, new, and all too often disheartening. Israel's
been winning on the ground. And still losing the war.
This bitter conflict - in which most
casualties on both sides of the border are civilians - raises troubling
questions, too. Some are identical to those confronting us in Iraq. Many
have troubling answers. Others have no real answers at all.
The elementary fact - which far too many in
the West deny - is that our civilization has been forced into a
defensive war to the death with fanatical strains of Islam - both Shi'a
and Sunni. We may be on the offensive militarily, but we did not start
this war - and it's all one war, from 9/11's Ground Zero, through
Lebanon and Iraq, and on to Afghanistan.
which Joel Rosenberg also referenced in
the note I quoted yesterday. Now of
course
This shouldn't surprise anyone.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2006/08/15/wmid15.xml
Quote from the piece. ---------- In a garden next to a
junction used as an outpost by Hizbollah lay eight Kornet anti-tank rockets,
described by Brig Mickey Edelstein, the commander of the Nahal troops who
took Ghandouriyeh, as "some of the best in the world".
Written underneath a contract number on each casing
were the words: "Customer: Ministry of Defence of Syria. Supplier: KBP,
Tula, Russia."
John
and probably doesn't.
For another view:
Subject: Hezbollah won?
So everyone agrees that Hezbollah won. Just how dumb
is the Arab street? Do they huddle in the bazaars and relish the victory of
Hezbollah? Do they do this in Lebanon? In the end, Hezbollah did Israel a
small hurt, and Lebanon got a lot of damage to their country as well as
their prospects of future stability. And who exactly is responsible for
unleashing the military might of the Israelis?
When the smoke clears, and the Lebanese look at their
damaged buildings, they will hate Israel, but the next morning will they
love Hezbollah? Will Hezbollah then get money from Iran, like they got the
missiles they fired at Israel, and rebuild the towns and cities that the
Israelis destroyed. Will the international community want to send aid to
rebuild Lebanon with the prospect of Hezbollah doing something incredibly
stupid again and the Israelis breaking things again? The war may have set
back relations between Israel and its neighbors; it certainly made its
neighbors more wary.
But exactly how does this make Hezbollah a hero in
Jordan or Egypt, where relations with the Israelis are more pacific? Someone
explain what the long term benefits to Hezbollah are when viewed by any
neighbor who wants peace and good trade. What does the Lebanese civilian do
when Hezbollah again moves in a rocket launcher next door?
Charles Simkins
My guess is that the civilian cheers. The
cheer may be a bit forced, but the alternative would be worse. Hizbollah won
because it will continue to exist, continue to patrol the streets, continue
to be the de facto government of much of Lebanon; and the cost to Hizbollah
was low. A thousand martyrs is a low price to them.
An alternate plan
What would happen if an non-state entity
systematically assassinated every Islamofascist leader over 35?
Would that send the right message? If their leaders
cried “Uncle”, would the true believers turn on their leaders out of shame
and humiliation over the revelation that their religion is nothing but a
death cult—unless as a leader of same you’re old enough to be comfortable in
your present living circumstances as an “Imam”? But what entity would have
the courage to do so?
Best regards,
Jim Floyd
Woodinville, WA
And on that subject:
Letters of marque and reprisal in the modern
world
Dr Pournelle
Article I, Section 8 of the Constitution gives
Congress the power to " grant letters of marque and reprisal, and make rules
concerning captures on land and water".
In 1856 the major European powers entered into a
treaty that prohibited further issuance of letters of marque and reprisal.
(The terms "marque" and "reprisal" are used in their archaic sense: "marque"
being an old French term for border and meaning empowered to cross borders;
"reprisal" meaning to take prizes.) The United States never signed the
treaty but abandoned the practice anyway.
Recently there have been some aborted attempts in
Congress to revive the practice against terrorists. I say, "Why not?" Let
private citizens expend their funds and efforts to seize terrorist funds.
Write the law and command the administering agency to promulgate
implementing regulations iteratively. Based on history, I am persuaded that
private parties can adapt to changing conditions much, much more quickly
than gov't bureaucracies.
Respectfully
h lynn keith
So that the property of terrorists becomes
lawful prizes for those who can take them. Privateers...
Poul Anderson made some use of this in his
novel Star Fox
George Will weighs in:
Will: The Triumph of Unrealism.
from
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/
content/article/2006/08/14/AR2006081401163.html
-----
The London plot against civil aviation
confirmed a theme of an illuminating new book, Lawrence Wright's "The
Looming Tower: Al-Qaeda and the Road to 9/11." The theme is that better
law enforcement, which probably could have prevented Sept. 11, is
central to combating terrorism. F-16s are not useful tools against
terrorism that issues from places such as Hamburg (where Mohamed Atta
lived before dying in the North Tower of the World Trade Center) and
High Wycombe, England.
- Roland Dobbins
As I have said before, $300 Billion Dollars
buys a lot of intelligence, energy sources, mass migration and law
enforcement, border security...
Of course it is all part of a war in another
theater:
In the Post Vietnam era today's wars are fought as
much in the media as on the battlefield. Those who study such things call it
"Asymmetrical Warfare." The Western nation states are NOT doing well in this
media war. Here are two examples:
1. Why don't they connect the dots? The attacks in the
US are not unrelated, but are part of Islamic Fascism. The most recent
attack was right here in the Pacific NW. See:
The Myth Of The Lone Gunman - Cinnamon Stillwell
Wednesday, August 9, 2006
"Since the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, the claim
has often been made that no further acts of terrorism have occurred on
U.S. soil. But anyone following the news closely knows better...."
http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/gate/archive/2006/08/09/cstillwell.DTL
2. Why isn't false media reporting exposed by the
media itself? An example was the recent conflict in Lebanon. Too many media
reports have been stage managed. The work isn't up to Hollywood standards,
but the Media is strangely silent about obvious fraud by their colleagues.
See: Subject: Photo Fraud in Lebanon
http://www.aish.com/movies/PhotoFraud.asp
I know many reporters are honest, professional, and
hard working, and I welcome comments by my friends in the media. To me,
neither political party has done well at preventing or containing Islamic
Fascism. For ten years, we did nothing, and that didn't work. For five
years, we've been aggressive, and that's not worked very well either. I
welcome a public dialog that shapes better answers and it disturbs me that
distorted and false pictures are being constantly reported to misshape world
opinion. What am I missing here?
Best,
John D. Trudel
And
Subject: RE: What would happen if an non-state entity
systematically assassinated every Islamofascist leader over 35?
Jerry,
I wrote my earlier message for shock value.
Israel “lost” in Lebanon in the eyes of the press
because its victory cannot be called decisive. Wars cannot be fought using
“Politically Correct” rules. Unless we can stomach inflicting multiple
Dresden-like attacks--multiple torchings similar to that inflicted on
Tokyo--we cannot expect our enemies to behave as though they are utterly
defeated. I cannot help but think that the elders of Islam are entirely
content sending their youth to fight and die while they luxuriate in silks
and fineries of all sorts paid for by western treasure for oil. To achieve
victory, we must exact a punishment that shows the Islamofascist leadership
and populace that their present course has a heavy price—heavier than Israel
has exacted, a price that should be exacted from Tunis to the Philippines,
with a suspension of habeas corpus and infinite imprisonment for
Islamofascists wherever they are found around the world—something that shows
the Islamofascists that the battle is truly joined, and that their jihad
cannot be won against 21st century civilization and all its terrible might.
I doubt our leaders in this moment. I wish for the
second coming of the equal of Churchill, with his wisdom, his courage in the
face of overwhelming odds, and his ability to rally the people against the
howls of the defeatists and the appeasers. We cannot pull our heads in, like
300 million turtles, and hope for the best. Build the reactors, pilot the
coal gasification plants, drill in the US in any promising areas; and yes,
let the aftermath be that the lovers of the 7th century are left to their
desert hovels, impotent in their inability to build a single useful thing
except a vessel of death—and especially let there be no doubt in their minds
that the words “Don’t tread on me.” still ring true now as then.
When Churchill sat thinking of the breadth of Nazi
power as Hitler stood on the outskirts of Stalingrad and the shores of
France, of imperial Japan poised to overcome China, of the advances of the
Afrika Corps and Italy in North Africa and even the conquest of Norway and
Finland, he must have wondered if enough power could be mustered to defeat
all the evil in the world. We don’t have to wonder; we have the power. We
must decide whether we lack the will or not.
Best regards,
Jim Floyd
You all may recall that I advocated monuments
after 9/11: in every city where they danced in the streets in joy, we create
in the central part of the city an area of rubble the size and shape of
Ground Zero. And keep it that way: attempts to rebuild will be met with
bouncing rubble. I was told that was too severe and heartless. It almost
certainly would have been insufficient, but coupled with border security and
steps toward energy independence would it have been at least as effective in
keeping the US safe as what we have done?
As a response to the kidnapping of two
civilians, the Israeli actions of destroying civil society in Lebanon and
ending the Cedar Revolution was disproportionately severe; as an action to
end Hizbollah's domination of Lebanon, it was too small; and showed that a
few hundred casualties is too high a price. If Israel had acted this way in
the formation wars, there would be no Israel.
That is my view. I wish Israel well. I
spent too little time in the company of then President Weizmann, but we
agreed on many matters. I see few like him in the current leadership.
============
Modern Science
Fiction: Cyberpunk
The scarlet 'I'.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/08/14/news/korea.php
- Roland Dobbins
Some problems are so complex that you have to be
highly intelligent and well-informed just to be undecided about them.
-- Laurence J. Peter
==
More science fiction
in reality:
Subject: The Neighborhood War Zone,
Jerry
This piece makes me re-think some of my long-held
beliefs:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/
article/2006/08/11/AR2006081101333_pf.html
Robert Heinlein posited a society of people who were
civilized because they were armed in "Beyond this Horizon" (http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0743435613/).
It certainly sounded good. People were polite because if they were not, they
would have to defend their actions with their lives.
But what happens when the less-civilized people in our
society take up this aspect of culture? They are armed, and ready to avenge
any slight with a bullet in the back, not a face-to-face duel.
"The Marching Morons" was scary enough. But The
Marching Morons with guns? Brrr.
Ed
Barbarians at the gates are frightening,
but in today's world the barbarians are within the gates. We have often
thought that "an armed society is a polite society", but it depends on the
society, doesn't it? Can civilization survive barbarians within the gates?
Of course it will, but at what cost? We may be sure a Caesar will arise. But
who will follow him? Augustus? And who will follow Augustus?
Someone long ago said, Freedom is not
free, free men are not equal, and equal men are not free.
============
Active Security and
Security Theater:
Subject: Bruce Schneier's Comments
<http://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2006/08/terrorism_secur.html>
He discusses the difference between effective security
and security theater. As long as we rely on security theater, we'll be
vulnerable to the first terrorist thinking outside *our* box.
-- Harry Erwin, PhD, Program Leader, MSc Information
Systems Security, University of Sunderland.
<http://scat-he-g4.sunderland.ac.uk/~harryerw> Weblog at:
<http://scat-he-g4.sunderland.ac.uk/~harryerw/blog/index.php>
As any fool can plainly see...
=============
And now for something completely
different:
Subject: David Copperfield says he's found Fountain of Youth - Yahoo!
News
Stay tuned for more Bahama Weirdness!
Petronius
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060815/od_uk_nm/oukoe_uk_copperfield
And meanwhile he owns the islands...
============
Subject: BBC: "Crime spike hits Katrina
evacuees"
One has to admire the commitment to political
correctness that leads to such deceptive writing.
Jim
I hope my home town has learned its lesson and the
next time levees break in New Orleans we will have the Texas National Guard
seal the border between Texas and Louisiana.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/4795899.stm
BBC NEWS
Crime spike hits Katrina evacuees By Nick
Miles BBC News, Washington
Police records from Houston in Texas
suggest that evacuees from Hurricane Katrina are increasingly at risk of
being involved in violent crime.
One in five of the murders in the city over
the last year involved an evacuee as either the suspect or victim.
There was also a marked increase in the
overall number of killings.
Almost a year since the hurricane hit New
Orleans, hundreds of thousands of people are still living in temporary
housing across the United States.
The figures are striking. Murder rates in
Houston are up by almost 20% in a year.
A disproportionate number of them involve
people who fled Hurricane Katrina.
Houston received the bulk of those rescued
after the flooding in New Orleans - 150,000 of them.<snip>
Astonishing. Take 150,000 people from the most
corrupt and least law abiding city in the country, move them elsewhere, and
you expect?
============
Subject: ] BBC: Germany hits new birth rate low
These statistics would be even scarier if they
distinguished between taxpaying class and poverty class births.
Jim
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4793997.stm
BBC NEWS German births decline to new low
Germany has seen another decline in its birth rate, which is Europe's
lowest.
Official figures show that the number of
births fell by a further 2.8% last year. Meanwhile, the mortality rate
rose by 1.5% compared with 2004.
The birth rate is exceptionally low in the
former East Germany, where the city of Chemnitz is thought to have the
lowest birth rate in the world.
Economists say Europe's population decline
threatens to damage economic growth for decades.<snip>
Liberalism is a philosophy of consolation
for Western Civilization as it commits suicide. Soon enough many First World
countries will not have enough productive citizens to sustain a first world
economy. The results are predictable. Work the able until they give that up.
Then
And not unrelated:
Subject: ACT gaining on the SAT
Another factor going on is demographic.
Colleges are having problems finding butts to put in all their seats, so
they are dropping requirements that are barriers to prospective students
becoming their "customers".
Jim
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14325062/site/newsweek/
NEWSWEEK Aug. 21-29 issue
MSNBC.com
Test Wars
Despite repeated promises of reform from
the SAT's keepers, critics still find plenty to talk about. Could the
ACT finally conquer all?
By Jay Mathews
For one brief moment, after years of fear
and loathing, America seemed ready to make peace with the SAT. When the
University of California several years ago threatened to treat the test
like a bad batch of cafeteria food and tell applicants not to buy it,
the College Board junked the bewildering analogy questions (warthogs are
to pigs as politicians are to what?), created a writing section
(including producing an essay), added tougher math questions and more
reading analysis-and had everybody talking about the new-and-improved
SAT.
Then the first students to take SAT: The
Sequel were seen stumbling out of the testing centers as if they had
just run a marathon, and all the happy talk ended. The students, their
parents, their counselors and the $1,000-per-course SAT prep companies
said the new test was too long and exhausting, with the three hours and
45 minutes stretching to five hours with breaks and instructions. And it
got worse. Nobody is sure how, but moisture in some SAT answer sheets
caused pencil marks to bleed or fade, producing more than 5,000 tests
with the wrong scores. Even after that was fixed, several universities
reported a sharp drop in their applicants' average scores, which many
attributed to exhaustion, and more colleges told applicants they would
no longer have to take the SAT.
All of which stoked interest in the ACT,
the SAT's less famous and less feared rival based in Iowa City, Iowa.
The shorter test is now becoming a welcome alternative for many high
schoolers who no longer see a need to endure the usual SAT trauma. "I
think the ACT is a true player in the college-admissions game these
days," says Robyn Lady, until recently a college counselor at Thomas
Jefferson High School for Science and Technology. Although most
Jefferson students still take the SAT, the number of ACTs there has
tripled in the last two years. It's a shift that, if it continues, could
change the balance of entrance-test power, since the Fairfax County,
Va., magnet sends more kids to the Ivy League than almost any other U.S.
school.<snip>
And as they fill the seats, the quality of
education plummets. When people insist it's not about the money, it's about
the money. (and see below)
Also not unrelated:
New Data Shows Immigrants Growth and Reach
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/15/us/15census.html
By RICK LYMAN
The number of immigrants living in American
households rose 16 percent over the last five years, fueled largely by
recent arrivals from Mexico, according to fresh data released by the
Census Bureau.
And increasingly, immigrants are bypassing
the traditional gateway states like California and New York and settling
directly in parts of the country that until recently saw little
immigrant activity regions like the Upper Midwest, New England and the
Rocky Mountain States.
Coming in the heart of an election season
in which illegal immigration has emerged as an issue, the new data from
the bureaus 2005 American Community Survey is certain to generate more
debate. But more than that, demographers said, it highlights one reason
immigration has become such a heated topic.
What's happening now is that immigrants are
showing up in many more communities all across the country than they
have ever been in, said Audrey Singer, an immigration fellow at the
Brookings Institution. So its easy for people to look around and not
just see them, but feel the impact they're having in their communities.
And a lot of these are communities that are not accustomed to seeing
immigrants in their schools, at the workplace, in their hospitals.<snip>
Liberalism is -- well, you know.
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