| Friday,
June 23, 2006
Subject: Researchers Use Wi-Fi Driver to Hack Laptop
Do be careful out there:
Researchers Use Wi-Fi Driver to Hack Laptop
http://news.yahoo.com/s/pcworld/20060622/tc_pcworld/126204
Security researchers have found a way to seize control
of a laptop computer by manipulating buggy code in the system's wireless
device driver.
The hack will be demonstrated at the upcoming Black
Hat USA 2006 conference during a presentation by David Maynor, a research
engineer with Internet Security Systems and Jon Ellch, a student at the U.S.
Naval postgraduate school in Monterey, California.
Petroniius
=========
I have a letter on
global warming that goes on for three pages of links, none of which I am
likely to follow down here in dialup land. Before I realized just how
disorganized this "proof" was I wrote a reply.
Dear Jerry:
So what about this? Is the case for global warming via human activity now
proven??
Tim
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==
That human activity has some warming effect has
never been disputed. Arrhenius first analyzed this effect around 1900 and no
one has questioned that prediction.
The question is: HOW MUCH? And that has never been
determined. Arrhenius looked at probable effects of CO2. He didn't look at
particulates put into the atmosphere by factories; these tend to affect
albedo and have the effect of cooling by reflecting solar energy. There is
some evidence that jet contrails have an effect on solar reflection, and one
speculation that this is a cause of "global dimming", an observed
phenomenon.
In FALLEN ANGELS we postulated that the actual
trend of the Earth is cooling toward Ice Ages (a correct prediction on
statistical grounds) and humyn activity is sufficient to overcome it.
Probably not correct but well within the accuracy of observations.
The observers do not find what the theorists
predict. When there is ANY evidence that the models are correct there is
much joy among those who award each other grants and keep anyone from
studying anything contradictory to the "consensus" (this is called Peer
Review); Hansen shouts huzzah! And calls a press conference; but when there
is evidence contradictory to the "consensus" there is little but silence,
and sometimes condemnations because the study was funded by an energy
company or some other such source; is if the "peer review" process did not
amount to censorship of all but the prevailing theories. Where do
contrarians go for funds? Who is interested in funding impartial -- truly
impartial -- studies?
We have more than one question in the global
warming debate.
First: Is the Earth warming at all? The balance of
evidence says, probably. How much is in debate.
Second: Does human activity contribute to this? Are
people doing enough to affect climate? Very likely, to the point of near
certainty. How much is very much in debate.
Third: given that the Earth is warming, should we
do anything about it? Clearly we don't want a runaway effect; but the
arguments for global milder climates is strong.
Fourth: what ought we to do? And at what cost? But
the "consensus" seems to be to rush to Kyoto, which we know won't do much,
because "do something even if it's wrong and even if it costs so much we
can't do anything else" seems to be prevalent among many advocates.
As I said a very long time ago in my
essay on The Voodoo Sciences, novelists
need only be plausible; lawyers need only evidence and don't have to be
concerned with facts contrary to their positions; but science requires data,
and real science must account for all of it.
The climate science community has a few scientists,
but much of the community supporting the Global Warming "consensus" act like
advocates -- lawyers, if you will -- and some act like novelists, concerned
only with plausibility. The scientists are rare birds, and not often
listened to or funded.
Global Warming may be real, although it's pretty
hard to detect over the past fifty years; certainly there has been a lot
since the Little Ice Age and the frozen rivers of the US during the
Revolution. Certainly there was sudden cooling followed by warming after
Tambora in 1815
followed by 1816, the year without a summer known in northern US latitudes
as "Eighteen Hundred and froze to death." Tambora put more gunk into the
atmosphere than all human activity since the dawn of time, according to some
estimates; and leaving out the relative amounts, it was a LOT, and we saw
the effects immediately; they are on record.
Incidentally, Benjamin Franklin, on his way to
England to take up a diplomatic post, sailed past Iceland and saw the plumes
from volcanoes and speculated that enough such might affect the Earth's
temperature, perhaps enough to cover the world with ice.
We can correlate cold temperatures with the Maunder
Minimum; and we know that when that ended, global temperatures rose, and
there wasn't a lot of questioning that they rose. Growing seasons were
longer. People spent less money on heating. Farms were established further
to the north. Almanacs reflected the changes.
Yesterday on a radio show I heard and environmental
science group spokesman blather about hurricanes, and speculate about big
rising seas, and in general sound like a novelist. He seems to have been
speaking for a big organization that claims to be scientific and rational.
And what other science allows secret algorithms any
place in scientific method? Of course once the algorithms were finally made
public the Hockey Stick became less prominent, at least in arguments by
people pretending to be scientific. What other science tries to stifle the
grants and remove the fellowships of people who have contrary views? Well,
there are some; and they are as questionable as the "consensus position".
Everyone knows that Kyoto will not change global warming in any meaningful
way. EVERYONE who has studied this idiocy KNOWS that. Yet the same people
who keep "proving" their theories fail to denounce Kyoto as useless, and
often support it.
This is advocacy at best (when they have real
evidence) and novelistic plausibility at worst (when they make up their
data) but there is damned little science in this debate.
Having said that I'll try to go read this new
proof, but I doubt I will find anything new or important.
And see below
==========
Subject: Google Earth Placemark: TD-2 launchpad.kmz
Jerry,
Remember the stuff in the news a few days ago about
North Korea's possible missile test?
Here is a google earth link and 2 links to a web site
that has some interesting info on North Korea's missile launch site and
Taepo-dong 2 program. I found all of this from a standard google search on "taepo-dong
2 launch site". I have no idea if the website info is real or imagined, but
the pics and coords appear to be of the right area according to everything I
can find on the internet. Google earth images of that area are of fairly
good quality but I don't know how to tell when they were taken.
http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/dprk/facility/nodong.htm
http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/dprk/missile/td-2.htm
All of this is public-source but to avoid potential
finger-pointing, please keep my name off of this if you post it.
============
Subject: Nuclear waste disposal
Dr. Pournelle,
I was pleased to see that my idea of disposing of
radioactive waste in the subduction zones has evolved independently. A bit
of geology and a basic grasp of the realities of nuclear waste (less of a
threat than a lot of other things, to my mind) should have made this option
more obvious to more people, but as you said, no one wants to see it.
I've been shilling your site on my blog and to my
friends, so I hope it gets some of your traffic a wider audience. And, since
I can't resist, I hope to see some new fiction from you soon.
Cheers,
Steve I.
==
Subject: Spent fuel pools, SmartFilter
Jerry,
Re spent fuel pools, these are not simple ponds, as
was implied by Mr. Lewis, rather they are reinforced concrete storage pools,
some above ground, but most in ground. The are not going to be compromised
by ground movements or "changes and flows in ground water." They are
designed to withstand any natural occurrence, such as earthquakes. There is
come controversy as to whether it is possible that they could be damaged by
terrorist attack, since they are not inside the reactor containment
building. It was originally intended that spent fuel rods would be kept in
them for a few years while they cool off, then would be transferred to
Department of Energy storage sites. That is a service for which the
utilities have been paying the government as long as the plants have been in
operation. Since the DOE is many years behind schedule in providing these
facilities (such as Yucca Mountain), many spent fuel rods have been moved
out of the pools into highly secure dry cask storage, still on the plant
sites.
Re SmartFilter, I took a look at the site. It is
obviously an internet filtering service that is sold to businesses and
schools for use on enterprise networks, not something that can
surreptitiously be used to filter individuals' internet access outside such
environments. Apparently, anyone can suggest changes to the categorization
of a particular URL. I suggested that yours should be "computer/internet"
and "politics/opinion."
Regards, Bill Ghrist
===============
Subject: NAS
Report on Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years
Jerry,
In case no one has sent you the link you can obtain a
personal use copy of the pdf at: <http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11676.html>
The report also acknowledges the "Medieval Warm
Period" around 1000 and the "Little Ice Age" of the 1700s
In the technical appendix it says:
"Simulations with energy balance and intermediate
complexity models indicate that a combination of solar and volcanic forcings
can explain periods of relative warmth and cold between A.D. 1000 and 1900,
but that anthropogenic forcing, and particularly increases in greenhouse
gases, are needed to reproduce the late 20th century warming (Crowley 2000,
Bertrand et al. 2002, Bauer et al. 2003). Coupled atmosphere-ocean models
have been used to simulate the relative roles of natural versus
human-induced climate forcings in explaining the 20th century changes in
global surface temperature constructed from instrumental records (Stott et
al. 2000, Ammann et al. 2003) (Figure 10-6). Although the different model
simulations use different specifications of the various natural and
anthropogenic forcings and different parameterizations, the simulations are
in agreement that anthropogenic forcing is the largest contributor to late
20th century warmth."
--NAS Report on Surface Temperature Reconstructions
for the Last 2,000 Years pp 102--103
Regards,
Charles Adams
The problem with this is that it assumes
"the late 20th Century warmth," and there is a fair amount of controversy
between the theorists who really want to find it, and the measurement
experts who aren't at all sure they have seen it.
==
Subject: Global warming links of less credulous nature
Before you read the news spin on the recent NAS paper,
you might want to read Steve McIntyre’s take on this, as his work was the
major impetus for the impaneling of the committee.
http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=715 this includes a link to the
report itself. I have found this debate fascinating.
Louis D. Nettles
Extract:
"The early rumors on the NAS Panel was that
it was “two handed” – on the one hand, …, on the other hand, … with
something for everyone. I’d characterize it more as schizophrenic. It’s
got two completely distinct personalities. On the one hand, they pretty
much concede that every criticism of MBH is correct. They disown MBH
claims to statistical skill for individual decades and especially
individual years.
"However, they nevertheless conclude that
it is “plausible” – whatever that means – that the “Northern Hemisphere
was warmer during the last few decades of the 20th century than during
any comparable period over the preceding millennium”. Here, the devil is
in the details, as the other studies relied on for this conclusion
themselves suffer from the methodological and data problems conceded by
the panel. The panel recommendations on methodology are very important;
when applied to MBH and the other studies (as they will be in short
order), it is my view that they will have major impact and little will
be left standing from the cited multiproxy studies. "
Everyone with an interest in this matter
should read this as well as the report.
=============
Subject: explaining SmartFilter and its ilk
SmartFilter classifies web sites and helps you prevent
access to sites in classes that you feel are inappropriate. For V4, web
sites are put into the attached categories. By default, SmartFilter blocks
sites in these categories:
an,au,cs,dr,ex,gb,hs,ms,nd,sc,sm,ph,sx,sy,tg,vi,we
Lets say that you are in charge of stopping
inappropriate access from a junior high school library. You look through the
list and decide which categories are inappropriate for your students and set
up your web proxy to show a "this site is blocked" page instead of the
content. You log which workstation attempted to go to the "bad" sites so
that you can take specific action if required.
You can also classify workstations by IP address or
range, so that you can apply different rules for different populations of
computers.
In a nutshell, that's what this sort of filter does
and why. I've seen it mostly used by libraries and k-12.
JED
I still do not understand why they
classify me as web sales, or why the Air Force would ban this site from an
Air Force Base.
==============
Jerry,
Morning. Hope the salt air is doing you good.
On Immigration,
The other day I was at the local McDonald's with my 3
year old daughter. Been going there for 17 years. While my daughter ate her
Happy Meal, I was reading a couple of Mercury News articles on the
immigration issues when I realized that I was surrounded by illegal
immigrants. Almost everyone in the store except for us and the store manager
were probably illegals. I did not know for sure of course, but they all
spoke Spanish and had that "new" look. When I went up to the counter to get
my daughter an ice cream cone, one of the other customers went up to buy
something as well. I happened to notice the inside of his wallet when he
paid. He had two California driver's licenses!
However, I do not want to throw most of those folks
out, especially at the point of a bayonet. They seemed nice, I was playing
"peek a boo" with one little boy etc. They are here illegally, but we did
not stop them, and they come from parts of the world where laws are
selectively enforced as a general rule. Why would they think we don't really
want them?
My conclusion is pretty much the same as yours, we
must slam the door shut and lock it. Go after the employers with fines that
are big enough to hurt and small enough to get issued (Recall the$1000.00
littering fines in some places - most cops don't want to issue $1000.00
tickets for throwing a coke can out the window,). My family retired to
McAllen Texas - right across the border from Mexico. Folks down there would
not swim the river if there were not any jobs on our side.
My 6.625 cents worth.
Phil
==============
http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-hirshnu21jun21,0,7466845.story?coll=la-news-comment-opinions
LA TIMES
Overzealous prosecutors, cross-examine
yourselves
Hunger for convictions leads many
prosecutors to hide evidence that could prove innocence.
By Alan Hirsch, ALAN HIRSCH, a visiting
professor of legal studies at Williams College, created and operates
www.truthaboutfalseconfessions.com. June 21, 2006
BY ALL APPEARANCES, the sexual assault case
against three members of the Duke University lacrosse team involves
serious prosecutorial misjudgment, if not downright misconduct.
Michael B. Nifong, the Durham County, N.C.,
prosecutor, made public accusations long before the conclusion of the
investigation and now forges ahead even as DNA, witness statements,
medical reports and other evidence lead impartial observers to find the
case ridiculously weak.
Sadly, such conduct is not uncommon.
Prosecutors blatantly or subtly overstep professional bounds all too
frequently. In a 2003 study, the Center for Public Integrity found that,
since 1970, trial and appellate courts cited prosecutorial misconduct as
a factor when dismissing charges, reversing convictions or reducing
sentences in more than 2,000 cases. In thousands more, courts labeled
prosecutorial behavior inappropriate but upheld convictions
nevertheless.<snip>
==========
If Bill Kristol is the no. 1 conservative in the
country, I hereby resign any allegiance to conservatism and need a new word.
"Right-wing" doesn't do it, since I am a pluralist, not a universalist.
Frank
An A-to-Z Book of Conservatism Now Weighs
In
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/06/21/books/21conserve.html
By JASON DePARLE
WASHINGTON, June 20 -- It has red states
and blond pundits; home schoolers and The Human Life Review;
originalists, monetarists, federalists and evangelists; and no shortage
of people named Kristol.
Now American conservatism can claim another
mark of distinction: an encyclopedia all its own.<snip>
=========
Immigrants and the Economics of Hard Work
New York Times, 6.4.2 [note date]
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/02/weekinreview/02broder.html
The Nation By JOHN M. BRODER LOS ANGELES
IT is asserted both as fact and as
argument: the United States needs a constant flow of immigrants to
perform jobs Americans will not stoop to do.
But what if those jobs paid $50 an hour,
with benefits, instead of $7 or $10 or $15?
"Of course there are jobs that few
Americans will take because the wages and working conditions have been
so degraded by employers," said Jared Bernstein, of the liberal Economic
Policy Institute. "But there is nothing about landscaping, food
processing, meat cutting or construction that would preclude someone
from doing these jobs on the basis of their nativity. Nothing would keep
anyone, immigrant or native born, from doing them if they paid better,
if they had health care."
The most comprehensive recent study of
immigrant workers comes from the Center for Immigration Studies, a group
that, unlike Mr. Bernstein's, advocates stricter controls on
immigration. The study, by the center's research director, Steven A.
Camarota, found that immigrants are a majority of workers in only 4 of
473 job classifications stucco masons, tailors, produce sorters and
beauty salon workers. But even in those four job categories, native-born
workers account for more than 40 percent of the work force.
While it might be a challenge to find an
American-born cab driver in New York or parking lot attendant in Phoenix
or grape cutter in the San Joaquin Valley of California, according to
Mr. Camarota's study of census data from 2000-2005, 59 percent of cab
drivers in the United States are native born, as are 66 percent of all
valet parkers. Half of all workers in agriculture were born in this
country.
"The idea that there are jobs that
Americans won't do is economic gibberish," Mr. Camarota said. "All the
big occupations that immigrants are in construction, janitorial, even
agriculture are overwhelmingly done by native Americans."
But where they compete for jobs, he said,
the immigrants have driven up the jobless rate for some Americans.
According to his study, published in March, unemployment among the
native born with less than a high school education was 14.3 percent in
2005; the figure for the immigrant population was 7.4 percent.
=============
http://amren.com/colorofcrime/color2.html
>The 2005 edition of The Color of Crime (New Century Foundation) is now
>available free as a pdf.
I am dismayed to see how the authors of this document
"sugar-coat" the statistics they present. Without directly making the
connection between the much-higher new-crime rates and the much-higher
incarceration rates, they don't give a true picture of the differential
between the criminality of the various groups.
A more-accurate picture would be portrayed if the
opening sentences, instead of saying:
> Blacks are seven times more likely than people of
other
> races to commit murder, and eight times more likely
> to commit robbery.
They should say words to the effect of:
> Blacks are seven times more likely than people of
other
> races to commit murder, and eight times more likely
> to commit robbery, *in spite* of having 10% of
> their males in the crime-prone ages of 18 to 30
> behind bars (and therefore unable to commit new
> crimes), vs. only 2% of the males of other races
> in the same age group.
Note that I don't know the generally-accepted "Most
Crime Prone" age group, nor do I know the exact percentages incarcerated,
but I would guess I am close on both.
I don't feel America will be a just place, until an
inner-city black grandmother is as safe from crime as I am, and all my
residences are in places where we don't even feel we have to lock our doors.
Whatever incarceration percentage is needed to achieve this, justice demands
we achieve.
Jim
<sigh> Fathers are cheaper than police and prisons,
but police and prisons are what we have...
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