| Wednesday,
December 29, 2004 Subject: Whew!
Saved after all
Merry Christmas Jerry
It's good news that we're saved, but looking at the
picture at http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news148.html my first thought was
what sort of technology will we have in 25 years time and is there any way
that we would be able to use this rock for something.
Predictions are that it's going to miss us by about
25,000 to 50,000 miles with a relative velocity of about 4 miles per second
with a mass estimate of about 100,000,000 tons (9.4e+10 Kg). With 25 years
to prepare the least we could do is land a probe or two on it, but what
would it take to deflect it into either an Earth or a Lunar orbit?
My maths isn't good enough for anything other than a
very basic estimate, but to slow it down to orbital velocity it would need
to lose about three quarters of that 4 miles per second, and slowing
100,000,000 tons down by 3 miles per second is a awful large amount of
kinetic energy to lose.
Maybe we should just plan to run some experiments on
deflection; hit it with one of the competing asteroid deflection ideas as it
passes and then watch to see if the actual deflection matches prediction. A
very small deflection in 2029 might also be useful if it helps us put it
where we want it to be when it returns 24 years later in 2053.
I'm sure there will be many other ideas, but will we
ever have the political will to do something like this, or will the fear
that we might nudge it back into a planet devastating orbit stop anyone from
doing anything. Maybe the best we can hope for is to just hitch a lift as it
goes by.
Best wishes for the new year
Paul Dove
==============
Educating the bright child/education in US and
overseas
Dr. Pournelle:
I recently (about the time of your comments on
educating bright children) began re-reading Expanded Universe.
In one essay, written ca. 1980, Mr. Heinlein wrote
that correspondence from readers had shown a decline in quality in the
post-war years, from letters, hand-written in ink, to childish-looking
print, in pencil. He wrote also of a parallel decline in grammar and
spelling, and mentioned that this was not a trend evident in correspondence
from Europe or Japan.
Does your correspondence from readers show a similar
pattern? If so, has the quality of the writing continued to decline, or has
it stabilized? Is the quality of non-US correspondence better or worse?
It seems to me that you are in a unique position to
comment, with readers on multiple countries and written materials both
fiction and non-fiction.
If, in your copious free time, you can squeeze in a
comment on this subject, I'd be interested--when it comes to problems of
education, is there a bottom, or is the decline Mr. Heinlein observed
worsening?
Mark Thompson jomath # hickorytech.net
I need to think on this one.
==================
Subject: Subject: life imitates science fiction?
again?
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=
story&cid=2026&e=14&u=/latimests/gravitymayloseitspull
As I was reading this article I was wondering why they
didn't look at the Voyagers to see if the same thing is happening, but this
statement confused me:
"A natural candidate was the twin Voyager missions,
launched in 1977. The Voyagers' meanderings offered plenty of space far out
of the reach of the sun for the anomaly to show up, but their orienting
technology was so different that the data were useless."
How is it possible that the Voyager data is of no use?
He stated earlier in the article that the last known locations of the
Pioneer spacecraft were off by nearly a quarter million miles. Surely we can
determine if Voyager is off by that much. I believe we're still in contact
with at least one of the Voyagers. I'm obviously no space scientist but I
wish someone could explain this to me. It would save so much time and money.
James Kimble Loveland Ohio
I glossed over that one as I read it. On reflection
I can think of several reasons why orienting problems might make Voyager
data less useful, but I don't actually know why; surely we have many readers
who do know. Enlightenment, please?
=================
Subject: On Hillarycare
Jerry,
It was interesting that one of your readers wrote:
“Why should it be that every European knows that the
US is the worst place among the first world countries to fall ill, and that
the health insurance cost of even a short trip to the US is many times
greater than that needed for trips to the rest of the first world--yet the
US outcome is no better. “
I take some umbrage at this….I certainly would not
want to fall ill in the U.K. or even the rest of Europe, and not be able to
afford private care. The public care lines are long, and I wouldn’t want to
lie in a bed in a ward with 80 other sick, coughing patients, hoping to see
a doctor once a week.
This summer, I was in a remote part of Africa, sitting
at a camp with a very diverse group of people from all over the world:
Sweden, Belgium, Japan, France, and myself, being from the U.S. Several of
the people were from NGOs (Non-Government Organizations, which is
third-world speak for charities), and they used our conversation to begin to
harangue me about the sorry state of health care in the U.S. I travel around
the world quite a bit, and have always been a bit puzzled by the rest of the
world’s opinion of American health care. I’ve attributed much of it to the
fact that more of the U.S. internal workings are available to the rest of
the world than any other nation, often even for the person’s own country,
and the fact that the U.S. media loves to report and overstate any negative
thing, and downplays the good.
During our conversation, I was constantly bombarded
with questions as to why people actually had to PAY for health care. The
government should supply it for free. One Belgium lady said “Why, why do you
do this to your people? You are the richest country in the world.” It dawned
on me then that it was all part of the welfare mentality. These people
believed the government OWED them health care. And they had never made the
mental leap to understand that with health care, you get what you pay for.
If you rely on the government to supply it, they are going to do it on the
cheap, build a big bureaucracy around it, and tear down any working systems.
If you pay for it, and fund it well, it will get better, good people go into
the field, new research is done, new drugs and medical equipment are
developed. None of these folks would buy what I was saying. They said “but
the person on the street who can’t afford health care, you just let them
die.” I was somewhat shocked by this, and said “I have never, never seen
anyone turned away who cannot pay. In fact, in one of the two large
hospitals in my small city of Billings, MT, there is a big sign on the wall
that says anyone entering will be treated, regardless of their ability to
pay.” It got fairly quiet with the group, but I could see disbelief in their
eyes. I think people CHOOSE to believe health care in the U.S. is bad. It’s
certainly not my experience, and yes, we have to pay, and pay well, but I
believe most of the new research, newly developed drugs, procedures, and
equipment come from the U.S. and U.S. companies, because they can afford it.
A fairly long tirade on this subject, yes, but it is
very odd how the rest of the world views the U.S. at many levels. They sure
love to be negative about us.
Tracy
However, in California where emergency rooms are
required to provide treatment to anyone regardless of ability to pay, the
hospitals are going broke: to the extent that many are closing emergency
rooms entirely. The reason is largely illegal immigrants, particularly in
the San Diego area; the whole city is nearly broke from providing services
to illegal immigrants.
If Hillarycare would require you to have a
Hillarycare Card and let them turn you away if you don't have one, it might
actually be better in those regions. I agree this is bizarre reasoning, but
the situation here is desperate. Los Angeles has one hospital no one will go
to (Martin Luther King) unless carried there unconscious (the Salve of War
is preferable for some) and other hospitals whose emergency rooms have
closed lest the entire hospital be bankrupted.
When thinking about health care systems, political
realities have to be taken into account. Not sure what can be done now.
Incidentally, standard economics demand curves
predict that as the price of a valuable good falls, the demand rises to near
infinities as it become zero. Health care seems to be such a good.
================
Subject: New cheap Mac on the horizon?
It certainly would be a good move by Apple:
http://www.thinksecret.com/news/0412expo2.html
Tracy
=============
Subject: surfer dude
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A31175-2004Dec28.html
The southern coast of Sri Lanka is a magnet for
foreign surfers, many of whom were caught on the waves when the tsunami
struck. Stories circulated here of an Australian surfer known to everybody
simply as Tim, who had the longest ride of his surfing career, ending up
hundreds of yards inland. He used his surf board to rescue travelers from an
overturned bus in a waterlogged field, according to these accounts.
Greg Cochran
No Barrington Tower...
===================
Subj: Towed artillery lives!
Actually the M119 105mm Howitzer discussed on
http://www.strategypage.com/messageboards/messages/4-666.asp
Artillery US Army considering renewed production of 105mm M119
is a towed piece.
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/systems/ground/m119.htm
M119A1 105mm Lightweight Towed Howitzer
Rod Montgomery==monty@sprintmail.com
And they just recalled a 71 year old doctor who had
been out for 40 years. Now I am worried...
Subject: On Artillery
Jerry,
With regard to the following:
Well, it's all pretty well changed now. I don't
think the Army has any towed artillery at all, and certainly nothing like
cannon company in infantry regiments. Which is probably as well. Cannon
companies were originally direct fire, but then there was the experiment of
attaching howitzers so that regimental commanders had some reasonably
accurate longer range firepower under their direct control. Most didn't know
what to do with such assets.
The recoilless were the first replacements for
cannon company, with the mortarmen right behind. Good mortar crews working
with infantry in the attack could be invaluable, responding more quickly
than howitzers, because of shorter time of flight of the rounds. Cannon
company with howitzers was an experiment that perhaps made no sense. But at
least cannon company cannon cockers got combat infantrymen badges, sometimes
over the protest of the real "queen of battles" types...
The Army still has towed Artillery. 105mm in Direct
Support battalions (3 per light infantry division) and 155mm in the GS
Battery/Battalion, in the DS battalion of the Stryker Brigades have 155T as
well as the USMC.
So far as the old "Cannon Company" goes, Regimental
Armored Cavalry Squadrons (found in the 2nd, 3rd, 11th, and 278th ACRS) have
a 155mm SP battery in each squadron.
Kind Regards
Mike Robel
Which shows just how far out of date I am on the
standard TO&E now. One of these days I'll have to arrange to visit some
maneuvers and get up to date again.
==========
Subject: Hess mystery solved?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml
=/news/2004/12/27/whess27.xml&sSheet=/portal/
2004/12/27/ixportal.html
--- Roland Dobbins
====================
Dr. Pournelle,
You recently mentioned "Strategy of Technology" on
Chaos Manor, which reminded me that you used it also as an example in a
discussion on e-books and "free software," pointing out that it had numerous
hits and relatively few donations. That made me take a second look at the
Strategy of Technology page, where I found directions on how to pay the
bard, so to speak, for the book. Unfortunately it involves mailing bills
through regular mail; I've found that one of the major conveniences of
e-books is the ability to quickly and easily pay. Is there a way to pay for
Strategy of Technology through a publisher's web site or PayPal? I've never
read it but intend to at some point, and five dollars or so is a worthy
investment in a good education.
Thank you, Max Wilson
--
Ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant. They make a
desert and call it peace. -Tacitus
I have fixed it to make it simpler now. Thank you.
================
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