| Thursday,
August 28, 2003 Begin with a visit to a mortuary.
Dear Dr. Pournelle:
Just returned from a visit to sunny Florida; my wife
and I visited the KENNEDY SPACE CENTER at Cape Canaveral. We took the more
comprehensive (and expensive) bus tour which, from what I understand, in
addition to the regular tour, shows you the outside of what are described
as 'industrial buildings' and, although the goings-on inside these
buildings are quite interesting, their bland exteriors are decidedly not.
Therefore, if anyone does find themselves there anytime soon, the regular
bus tour is quite sufficient.
A couple of items of interest:
At the end of the bus tour, we were let out at the
Saturn V/Apollo museum. This museum alone is worth the price of admission.
At the tail end of the Saturn V rocket suspended from the ceiling stood a
gentleman patiently, if curtly, taking questions from tourists. His name
is George 'Ted' Sassen, Chief Engineer of Spacecraft Operations, 1961 --
1994.
I took the opportunity to ask him if the engineering
plans to the Saturn V had been lost or damaged in the time since Apollo,
and he, quite dismissively, told me that they are, in their entirety, in
the LIBRARY of CONGRESS, and that I shouldn't believe everything I read...
I then asked him what he thought about SSTO and said 'it looks nice on
paper' but that it 'doesn't work'.
I spoke to our tour guide at the photo stop (they
finally let us off the bus) at the camera station of the main shuttle
launch pad. She mostly grouched about Congress' stingy funding and her
opinion of the Chinese space program and their plans to go to the moon was
that the Chinese were mainly interested in 'doing it only to snub us'...
There is, of course, no plan to build another shuttle, but that funding
will go to the next generation of spacecraft which she refused to
characterize in any way...
I enlose a few snapshots; sorry, the photo of Ted
Sassen is a bit blurry... the most intersting of the pics is the Saturn V
gantry graveyard, the sections of the old gantry moldering away in an
empty lot at the KSC... Ironically, the KSC is populated by thousands of
turkey vultures which circle over almost everything there.
* * * * * * * * * * * * Michael Mittelman
First, NASA took great care to be sure we would
not built more Saturn rockets, then to prove we didn't want them,
destroyed two man-rated working Saturns and the Skylab that could have
flown on one of them to give us a working space station decades ago at
essentially the operations cost.
They wanted Shuttle.
And I am not astonished that Sassen says that
nothing but Shuttle will work.
Understand, we don't know the payloads of a
single stage system; we do know that reusable space ships as opposed to
Shuttle which has to be rebuilt after each flight: operations driven
designs rather than performance designs -- work for everything but space
craft including airlines, and there is no reason other than people like
Sassen that you can't build operations driven spacecraft.
Well you have seen the mortuary and one of the
morticians. Interestingly enough, while his ilk were killing Saturn he
thought he was in charge of a health center.
===========================
Dr. Pournelle,
You cite oil production costs of $5/bbl for Saudi
crude. I thought I might add some information I came across during the
"Oil Crisis" in the 1970's.
When I studied this (with others) at one of the US
National Labs during the 70's "Oil Crisis" we found out a lot
about production costs for oil. For example oil produced from Persian Gulf
countries (Bahrain, Kuwait as examples) adjacent to the Gulf is produced
as follows: oil in the ground is under immense pressure there, if one
sinks a well and hooks up a pipeline to a tanker in the Gulf the costs for
getting crude to the ship is as low as $0.02 (yes that is cents) per bbl.
On the other hand the longer the pipeline the larger this cost will be for
pipeline maintenance.
This puts the $20.00 bbl price (or whatever it is
today) they charge into a different light does it not?
Another thing is that almost all the oil we produce
in the western US (CA and Alaskan crude) is not sold in the US but is
shipped to Japan and other countries in the Far East either refined (as is
the oil in LA) or as crude (Alaskan crude) at a huge profit to the oil
companies. It is not sold locally, at what could be a very low price to US
consumers.
Sadly, the oil companies are also foisting another
one on us about supplies. We, the US, buy a third or more of the Persian
Gulf oil (the rest is bought by Europe or the Far East) which accounts for
more than half of the oil we use in the US. The oil companies have a
supply line set up which takes six months to get the oil from the Persian
Gulf to the US. Therefore no oil supply problem can affect our incoming
oil for 6 months, unless someone stops the tankers enroute (which would
cut into the oil company profits so I am sure they would rather not stop
them). So, the oil companies pretend there is a shortage when in fact
there is not, at least short-term. They also know long beforehand when a
shortage might happen because of this.
The results of the study mentioned above verified
the DOE study that resulted in a fine of $12 billion for Conoco for
refinery oil refining anomalies. Conoco, at the time as I remember, wrote
a check to pay the fine and still had immense profits.
Ah well, carry on the good work. I am looking
forward to your new book. -- Oliver Richter orichter@att.net
Indeed. Thanks But see below
===========
Not that I'm any strategist or tactician, but my
thought in both Afghanistan and Iraq (particularly the latter after the
experience of the former) is that we should have gone in with an even
stronger deployment of ground forces and with the objective of verifyably
taking out the opposing leadership.
Such an approach IMHO have done a lot to end the
attrition we're encountering. But at a cost of probably at least 10x as
many combat casualties.
Ignoring the issue of whether we should have gone in
at all, it's hard to fault a strategy which IMHO has resulted in a
fivefold overall reduction in American casualties. At least so far.
Jim Woosley
The biggest mistake we made was not getting
together some kind of officials to represent the Iraqi government and
having a formal surrender signing.
The second largest was not paying some kind of
pension to Iraqi army troops, contingent on not only good behavior but
calm. It is not too late to do that: pay every former officer $5 a day,
former noncoms $3 a day, and privates $1 a day, but they are not paid for
any week in which any US troopers are killed. The results would be
beneficial and cheap at the price.
=====================
And a pair on the
same subject, manufacturing:
On exporting manufacturing jobs
http://www.townhall.com/columnists/alanreynolds/ar20030828.shtml
===== Tiomoid M. of Angle JD MBA
----------------------------------------------------------- For forms of
government, let fools contest; That which is best administered is best. --
Alexander Pope
====
Subject: OUTSOURCING JOBS IS NOT ALWAYS BEST
OPTION,
My fellow policy geeks are not usually much fun to
read. Believe me; all the charm of lawyers without the undercurrent of
rapacity to give spice to the mix.
Bruce Bartlett, of NCPA, is an exception. And since
you've been writing on this subject on your 'original blog', I thought you
might find this interesting.... in your copious free time. v/r, RGMCF
http://www.ncpa.org/edo/bb/2003/bb082703.html
<<OUTSOURCING JOBS IS NOT ALWAYS BEST OPTION.url>>
The Town Hall piece is predicable and doesn't
address the problem I raised: what happens to the left half of the Bell
Curve? Manufacturing is their traditional occupation: they are then valued
members of the community and citizens, not subjects.
If machines do all the work what happens? Silly
question: but the difference between exporting and automation is real. I
will leave the rest of what's wrong with the Town Hall piece (other than
its tone which seems determined to incite) to the readers.
Greetings Dr. Pournelle.
No doubt others have sent this link to you but
sometimes you never can tell. Global warming debated in the US Senate,
scientists slammed.
http://www.washtimes.com/commentary/20030825-090130-5881r.htm
Regards,
Mike Ross
I hear the squeals of gored oxen. There are those
who would rather have their stipends than solve problems.
Sallie is very careful, and her records are
confirmed by most of recorded history. Anyone recall Hans Brinker and
skating on the brackish canals of Holland? Frozen salt water? Ah well.
Understand: there used to be skating on Holland
canals all the time. But that was in the Little Ice Age when the Hudson
froze so solid that Col. Alexander Hamilton could bring the guns of
Ticonderoga across the frozen Hudson to G. Washington in Haarlem Heights.
In 1776.
=============================
Subject: Heh, heh.
http://news.zdnet.co.uk/software/linuxunix/0,39020390,39115920,00.htm
Roland Dobbins
Indeed...
Jerry,
Just a bit more on the DI-604. It passed the All
Service Ports probe at grc.com except for port 113, which showed up as
Closed rather than Stealth. After reading Gibson's info on 113, I set up
the DI-604 to redirect to a non-existent computer, Black Hole, in the
router's IP address range.
Result: full Stealth. I am now invisible to
unsolicited traffic. Not bad for $20.
Bill
=======================
Dr.Pournelle
You have stated on more than one occasion that it is
absolutely nessecary to get stable and competent government functioning in
Iraq as soon as possible.
I agree and I would like to expand on that idea a
little. One of the fears often expressed by pundits is that Iraq will
break up into three separate countries based on ethnicity. That is why
Iraq needs to be divided into smaller political subdivisions. Well, the
good news, it is. When Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait, he spoke of making
it Iraq's 19th province. That means that Iraq is divided into 18 provinces
with at least some history and tradition of existence.
Those provincial governments are the place that need
to succeed. A city mayor can depend entirely on personal relationships,
nepotisn, tribal loyalties and family connections to govern, but when
things get bigger beyond a certain size, an executive cannot govern
successfully without the political and management skills that are needed
to run a country. One of the strengths of the United States is that we
have a multi layered political system that resembles the baseball minor
league system in allowing people to develop their skills in progressively
more challenging circumstances and allowing candidates to prove their
suitability for higher office by how well they handle their current jobs.
According to a lot of what I read, many parts of
Iraq are pretty calm. Perhaps as many of half the the provincial
governments hould hold elections within a month or two and elect
legislatures and executives. As much responsibility as possible should be
put in their hands. Those areas that continue to have problems can
continue to be run by Paul Bremmer and USAID while in nearby provinces
people get the experience of learning to hold elected officials
responsible for making the machinery of government work. And the
politicians in those self governing provinces get the experience of making
mistakes that do not ruin the entire country while they learn to make the
machinery of government work.
Mark Kelly Deer Park, TX
==============
I just read this, and thought you'd be interested.
The deep-sea sponge has better manufacturing know-how than we do!
http://www.cnn.com/2003/TECH/08/
21/natural.fiberoptics.ap/index.html
Bierbaum
Indeed
Are we looking at this from the wrong perspective?
Looking at the mid-east, or perhaps that should be
mud-east, or muddle-east, I'm inclined to wonder if we are putting our
eggs in the wrong basket. It is clear that there is never going to be, at
least in my lifetime or likely anytime in the next ten generations,
anything recognizable as "peace" within a couple hundred miles
of Israel.
Part of this problem is Sharom and his compatriots.
Who really seem to feel that Hitler had the right basic idea, but simply
the wrong target group. A problem which they seem to have have corrected
to their satisfaction.
And part of this problem is Arafat, who claims to be
popularly elected, but as best I remember was a raghead terrorist in
charge of a group that also would have believed that Hitler had the right
idea (had they ever heard of him) but again the wrong group. A problem
they have corrected to their satisfaction.
As long as either of these people are alive and free
in that area, there will not, and can not, be any concept of peace. It
would be political death to either of them; and that is a death that is
far worse to them then the deaths of any tens of thousands of civilians
and/or supporters. So peace Will Not happen.
But, sitting here in America, I have to wonder. What
is that to us? I read the Constitution again today. As best I can make
out, it seems to imply that neither the People note the Federal Government
are responsible for the behaviour of Other States. And it seems to fairly
specifically suggest that the Various States themselves are denied this
power. So why do we care?
Well, one reason that I care at the moment is the
current world situation that seems to exist. For whatever reasons, there
seem to be tens of thousands of people that claim the only way they can
achieve Heaven is by killing me and anyone else residing in or associated
wiht America. One of the reasons these sort of people seem to give for
this belief is our support, or at least perceived (by them) support, for
Israel.
A support which would seem to buy us very little,
morally, financially, or otherwise. Indeed, it is costing me dollars from
my pocket, as billions a year in US taxes are donated to Sharom to
continue his war. It is potentially going to cost me or my neighbors our
lives if someone with a backpack bomb walks up to us in the mall and blows
us all up. And if that doesn't happen due to the goodness of Our
Government, it will be largely because the final scraps of the
Constitution have been burned on the alter of Security.
I also don't see how we gain morally by financing a
decades-long war of attrition, which is carefully tailored to be below the
birth rate on either side, and can thus be a never-ending war. Of course,
we can claim to only be financing one side of the war, and that that side
is "defending" itself. As the other side can claim, with at
least equal justification.
Where is the benefit to the United States, or to the
people of the US, to finance the dessolution of our own Constitution, and
the active hatred of several million people (or perhaps it is, or will be,
several hundred million people) who believe the only way to heaven is
through our deaths? Wouldn't there be better uses for our tax dolars?
Building power plants, for instance?
Of course, at this point simply removing funding
from Israel would be of little use. It might result in Sharom and friends
being pushed into the sea in a couple of decades. Or it might result in
them deciding to nuke a ditch around the edge of the country and kill
anyone within the borders that can't show German heritage. Which would
only half-serve our interests: the taxes might (doubtfully) be slightly
lower. But it would only encourage those millions of heaven-seekers to
come blow us up; and would encourage the Government to finish eliminating
the Constitution For The Duration.
As I see it, our clearest interest as Citizens would
be served by finding a way to discourage, or perhaps dis-encourage, those
that feel they need to kill us for supporting Israel. This would then in
theory remove some of the need for zeal that the Government is seeking in
its need to repeal the Constitution. I see both of these results as
valuable.
I am personally rather unconcerned with the actual
fate of a few million Israilis and Palestinians who seem to have no life
ambitions other than death, as their goals are limited to the deaths of
themselves and each other. Perhaps some bible school might like to send
Missionaries to the heathen and change their goals over time. I do not see
that it is the business of the US Government to be those Missionaries.
I wonder what actions we could be taking that might
tend more to result in goals that would be useful to ourselves. It seems
that our current policies are demonstrably very unuseful to ourselves, and
of questionable benefit to much of anyone else.
Loren Wilton
Date: Aug. 28th, 2003
subject: Book recommendations
Dear Jerry:
Elizabeth Moon's relatively new novel _The Speed of Dark_ (Ballantine)
is one of the best sf novels I've read in the last few years. I
think you'd like it.
You
probably remember _Pandora's Planet_, the Christopher Anvil
series about aliens who conquer earth and find out the natives are
rather smarter than they are. Eric Flint and K. D. Wentworth have
done an interesting retake on the idea, entitled _The Course of
Empire_ (Baen).
You
ought, however, to stay away from the ongoing saga _A
Series of Unfortunate Events,_ by Lemony Snickett
(HarperCollins). Only someone with a heart of stone could read
these stories of the Baudelaires, a family of unlucky orphans, without
becoming permanently depressed. As it says on the back cover, "If
you are interested in stories with happy endings, you would be better
off reading some other book." In other words,
they're perfect for children.
Best,
Stephen
DELENDAM ESSE SAUDI ARABIA!
=================
Jerry:
The letter from Oliver Richter is
full of inaccuracies. A quick review of public data sources reveals a few
facts. The total cost for producing oil from Middle Eastern reservoirs is
around $5 per barrel when you factor in all the costs of drilling and
equipping wells, building gathering systems, treating plants, pipelines,
compression facilities for associated gas, etc. $0.02 per barrel is a pipe
dream.
California and Alaska oil is refined and sold in the
US. There was a time when some Alaska crude was sent to Japan, but the
amount was small - 20,000 barrels per day if I remember correctly. Most
Alaska crude is refined in West Coast refineries for sale in California,
Nevada, Arizona, and the Pacific Northwest. California produces about
750,000 barrels per day of oil, Alaska about 900,000. Refining capacity in
California is about 1.8 million barrels per day, so supply and demand are
pretty well balanced, with shortfalls made up by imports. California oil
is predominantly heavy and expensive to produce - as much as 9 or 10
dollars per barrel in some cases. That number may be higher as rising
natural gas prices make steam generation more expensive.
The latest Energy Information Administration
statistics show that US crude oil imports were about 10 million barrels
per day, or approximately two thirds of US crude oil demand. Less than a
third of that 10 million barrels per day appears to come from the Middle
East, so the claim that half of our oil comes from the Middle East is
incorrect. EIA data is available at http://www.eia.doe.gov/
.
The numbers I've seen for tanker trips indicate a
trip time of about 40 days, not 6 months.
Conoco was never fined $12 billion. There aren't
many companies that can write a check that big, other than Microsoft and
maybe ExxonMobil. There have never even been civil damages of $12 billion.
Regards, Ross McMIcken
=And see below
===========
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