SPACE and SPACE MAIL
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Wednesday, March 29, 2000
Two experiments here. First, narrow column text. Second, a place for discussion of space. Rotary Rocket just broke ground for a new building: they hope to offer CNN a charter flight to orbit to let a CNN reporter cover, live from space, the inauguration of Space Station by NASA. I expect they'll do it: they or another private company.
I'll have more thoughts on the subject another time. Meanwhile:
From: Talin [Talin@ACM.org]
Sent: Monday, June 22, 1998 7:49 PM
To: Jerry Pournelle
Subject: "The Significance of the Mars Frontier"
I just finished reading "The Case for Mars" by Robert Zubrin. Great book. The author presents a compelling case that Mars can be explored and colonized much more inexpensively than the current poular estimates. I used to believe that a Lunar Colony was the way to go, and that Mars wasn’t all that significant, but this author presents a very strong case as to why the reverse situation is in fact true. Lots of interesting technical material, but the most interesting part for me was the last chapter which talks about the effect that a Martian Frontier would have upon our own western society here on earth. The text of the chapter is available on the web at:
http://spot.colorado.edu/~marscase/cfm/articles/frontier.html
I’ve heard much talk about the fact that we need a new frontier to keep our economy and civilization growing. However, what I hadn’t head before is the idea that without a frontier, our vaunted global economy will eventually stagnate, creativity and innovation will be resisted and thwarted, our western values of humanism and progress will decay, large static institutions will consolidate and gel into place, and eventually the whole world will turn into a sort of high-tech version of imperial China. Interesting thesis, and if there’s any merit to it, it worries me quite a bit. I’m not content with the princples of Democracy and Humanism as they are, I want to see those principles _evolve_. (You can tell I grew up watching Star Trek, can’t you?)
Another interesting related page is the Mars Society:
Talin (Talin@ACM.org) -- Systems Engineer, PostLinear Entertainment.
[http://www.sylvantech.com/~talin]
"The only mind-altering substance I use is breakfast."
Well, I grew up thinking I would live to see the first man on the Moon. I did, too, but then Apollo fed NASA and NASA ate the dream, so I may have also seen the last one in my lifetime. Except there's hope with private rockets. At last. As to America without a frontier, it's happening now, isn't it? The War on Poverty was well intentioned, but the result was to do what slavery and Reconstruction and the Ku Kux Klan and Jim Crow couldn't do, destroy the black family in America (and it's finishing off families for everyone else too). It's not healthy to have all your attention fixed on solving social problems.
Boswell: "Then, Sir, you laugh at schemes of social improvement?"
Johnson: "Why, Sir, most schemes of social improvement are very laughable things."
Tocqueville was more detailed on what happens when democratic societies spend too much time studying their own navels, but the effect is the same. Thanks.
From: Don Armstrong [darmst@lto.nsw.gov.au]
Sent: Thursday, June 25, 1998 11:43 PM
To: 'jerryp@jerrypournelle.com'
Subject: chaosmanormail : Space
This cut from Newsbytes links to an amusing and interesting site, and then on. I think it may take people places you'd want them to go.
PC / Linux User Group Plans Own Launch Of Windows 98
While Microsoft Corp. [NASDAQ:MSFT] is planning the worldwide launch of its new Windows 98 operating system at midnight tonight, the Silicon Valley Linux User's Group is planning a launch of its own for this weekend that plans to literally shoot Windows 98 sky-high.
If all goes according to schedule, the group will launch a rocket this weekend, aided by Windows 98. The new operating system won't be controlling the rocket or launch computer but rather helping it fly - two Windows 98 beta CD-ROMs were cut in half by the group to provide four fins for the rocket.
http://svlug.org/events/launch98.shtml
Regards,
Don Armstrong
darmst@yahoo.com.au
Well, that's one way to fly.
===
From: Lyssa Jacobs [tallbabe13@yahoo.com]
Sent: Saturday, July 04, 1998 6:17 PM
To: jerryp@earthlink.net
Subject: I want my SpaceTV
Jerry,
Thanks for over 20 years of entertainment and information.
I think the following is my own idea, or at least an original synthesis. If I’m stepping on someone’s intellectual toes, it is not intentional:
What would happen if coverage of manned space flight was based on an entertainment business model...
Project A: "Return to Tranquility" (RTT)
As you may have guessed, RTT will be focussed on a manned landing at the Tranquility Base site last visited by Neil and Buzz in 1969. This would be a lead-in and proof of concept for:
Project B: "Footsteps on Mars" (FOM)
FOM is the first manned landing on Mars. ‘nuff said.
The rights to each of these projects, if sold as entertainment not news, could generate billions of dollars.
"How?" you say. Networks routinely pay hundreds of millions of dollars for Olympic coverage. What would a network pay for this? What is the comercial time worth for the slots immediately preceding and following what would probably be media events watched by billions? Look at the interest Pathfinder generated. What would CNN have charged for commercial time on the afternoon of July 4, 1997, had they known what their viewership would be, especially if they had exclusive rights to the show? RTT would be all of that and more, especially if done soon enough to get either Neil or Buzz (or both) to do the "color". FOM would be the next great step in human exploration. A successful RTT would almost guarantee FOM’s audience.
"But, billions?" you ask. Sure, why not? Jim Cameron can get over $200 million to recreate a news event, on his movie industry rep alone. How many billions could he raise on a project with a guaranteed audience, built in drama, and decades of resalability. If you don’t believe the last is true, ask yourself this: How many times have you seen the same old images of lunar exploration? Do they still hold your attention?
Would the entertainment angle bring in all of the money needed? No, but given the decreasing per pound cost of spacecraft on orbit and the increasing cost efficiencies of other manned mission technologies, it could provide the extra boost to get the suggested manned programs off the ground.
Some might say that crew safety would be compromised in favor of profits. Oh, yeah? With the entire project hinging on a happy ending? Entertainment investors on this scale would require a reasonable likelihood of a happy ending. Big budget tragedy is for the news. If anything, I’m willing to bet that a Cameron or a Spielberg would implement a safety program that would put NASA’s to shame.
The bigger objection, in the minds of the purists, would probably be that the whole idea is crass. Well, Heinlein suggested that space exploration should be sold, if necessary, to gain the greater reward of actually getting there. I can name no greater philosophical or intellectual authority on the subject, can you?
I know that the above is the bare bones of an idea. I’m sure I haven’t seen all the twists and turns. But something tells me...
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Years ago I went to The Berkshires for a meeting with Doug Trumball on exactly this subject. What could we get out of Hollywood for a private space venture? At the time NASA was VERY active in poo-pooing any such idea, and there were no prospects of a private launch.
Now that Gary Hudson promises to let CNN charter an orbit trip to cover live the launch of Space Station, and appears likely to have reusable orbiters before NASA, it no longer looks so goofy. It can happen. Probably without me. I put in my 50 years of working for the space program.
Stay well,
Jerry
