| Thursday,
February 3, 2011 Commodity Prices
Skyrocket
Jerry,
Kissinger was on Bloomberg and he said that what is
happening in Egypt is the first act in a larger play. Kissinger's mouth is
starting to get bigger, but I hope he keeps talking. Well, not surprisingly,
these events are coupled with commodity price increases:
<snip>
World food prices reached their highest level ever
recorded in January and are set to keep rising for months, the UN food
agency said on Thursday, warning that the hardest-hit countries could face
turmoil.
</snip>
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?
id=CNG.0bcf7660807b5b8e782fa73f
510af552.471&show_article=1
<snip>
Brent crude rallied to a 28-month high above $103 on
Thursday as the political crisis in Egypt erupted into violence, sparking
fresh concern over energy supplies in the crude-rich Middle East.
</snip>
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?
id=CNG.155b621fd0222d640f22c8ee8
ab21457.b01&show_article=1
Gold & Silver have not recovered to their recent
highs, but they are holding steady at nearly double their prices before the
previous rally. Gold is trading at 1352.10 and Silver at 28.71. The USDX is
up to 77.64 (Isn't that depressing? It's *up* to that horrid number). In any
case, the USDX is a distraction. What really matters is the price of the
dollar vs. gold. The USDX is up because the other currencies in the basket
that weighs against the dollar to compute the USDX are going down relative
to the dollar. So, it really means, the other guys are doing worse than we
are. If they aren't so good, we aren't so bad? Perhaps not, but I've always
considered statements like that as coming from a loser's script.
Having said all this, oil is trading at 90.19 on my
list of indicators. But, the $103 high portends higher oil prices. Someone
needs to get all the policy makers in one area and point over the hills and
say, "You see that mess over there? That's your act. Now quit trying to be a
bunch of creeps and get your act together!" I think a kick in the pants
might be appropriate as well. Anyway, we might consider it.
--------
BDAB, Joshua Jordan, KSC Percussa Resurgo
===========
Incompetent Empire II
Jerry,
The Ignorati struck again! Our lack of energy policy
now means that Texas needs Mexican power to turn its lights on.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20110202/
ts_alt_afp/mexicousweatherstorm_20110
202234748
--------
BDAB,
Joshua Jordan, KSC Percussa Resurgo
============
Social Security article in WSJ
According to Mr. Blahous, benefit payments are
exclusively paid out of current payroll deductions. I thought the system was
better designed than that.
Phil
There ain't no Trust Fund. Social Security income
goes into the general treasury, and is not invested in growth items (as
Obama says, they don't trust the stock market). Payments are made from the
general treasury. There ain't no fund.
============
: Does Everyone Need a College Degree?
A new report released by Harvard Wednesday states in
some of the strongest terms yet that such a “college for all” emphasis may
actually harm many American students – keeping them from having a smooth
transition from adolescence to adulthood and a viable career. --
http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Education/
2011/0202/Does-everyone-need-a-college-
degree-Maybe-not-says-Harvard-study
Mike Flynn
==
Jerry -
It looks like Harvard has finely caught on to what
you've been saying for years.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_thelookout/
20110202/us_yblog_thelookout/study-says-
college-isnt-for-everyone
Dan
See, I told you so.... Thanks
============
Spengler on Food and failed Arab states,
Jerry
Spengler has some interesting things to say about
events in Egypt. First of all there is the food issue. He swings by the
issue of genital mutilation (noting in passing that “Three-quarters of acts
of genital mutilation in Egypt are executed by physicians.”), the failure of
Egyptian education (“Young Tunisians and Egyptians want jobs. But . . .
"many people have degrees but they do not have the skill set,"), then says,
“Egypt is wallowing in backwardness, not because the Mubarak regime has
suppressed the creative energies of the people, but because the people
themselves cling to the most oppressive practices of traditional society.
And countries can only languish in backwardness so long before some event
makes their position untenable.” Then he returns to food:
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MB02Ak01.html
“China, not the United States or Israel, presents an
existential threat to the Arab world, and through no fault of its own:
rising incomes have gentrified the Asian diet and priced food staples out of
the Arab budget. Whether the Egyptian regime survives the current uprising
or a new one replaces it, the outcome will be a disaster of biblical
proportions. The jump in food prices was the wheat-stalk that broke the
camel's back.” Numbers follow.
We’ll see what happens.
In the meantime, it looks like the Egyptian military
has adroitly maneuvered to get what they want: The anti-Mubarak protesters
have stopped the president’s desire to make his son his successor; now the
military can select the successor they desire. The Obama set fell into a
pretty trap, took credit for persuading Mubarak to leave (but he will hold
on until November) and now a large hunk of Egypt blames the US for
threatening their stability – large groups of counter-demonstrators showed
up after Mubarak announced he would not run for re-election, showing that
public opinion is not as one-sided as the Obamanauts thought. And the Army
very visibly kept control of the situation where the internal security
police could not do so. Looks like they stay in power, and Obama takes a
hit. Pity he’s our president and not merely a senator. Presidential hits
hurt our country.
Ed
Mamelukes ruled Egypt for centuries. And in some
ways, have since the King was deposed.
No country is more than a few meals away from
revolution. But people who have starved to death do not protest.
==============
We're doomed
U.S. Losing Resource Wars to ... Turtles <http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/
2011/02/02/the_rare_earths_butterfly_effect_99375.html>
Dan Steele
Doomed. If the turtles don't get us, the minnows
will. And don't forget kangaroo mice.
==========
More Exemptions?
Jerry,
We saw with Obamacare that if you are cozy with the
White House, you get a waiver. Now, the same will apply to the global
warming laws.
<snip>
Last month, the Obama EPA began enforcing new rules
regulating the greenhouse gas emissions from any new or expanded power
plants.
</snip>
So he is taking cap & trade through regulation. How is
that any different from a dictatorship? Is he not attempting to create law?
Maybe not. Tsarist government tends to criminal codes where anything is
potentially legal or illegal and then it is all selectively enforced. The
sheer number of Tsars in our country should tell us that we are living under
what Robert Anton Wilson called Tsarist Occupation Government--or TSOG, the
thing that ate the Constitution. I suppose none dare call it dictatorship,
but I am one less than everybody.
The President gave GE a waiver from his new powers
that he gave himself through creative interpretation of laws. So, we have
another tool for our Marxist community organizer to impose a centrally
planned economy on what is left of our country. At least the waiver--in this
case--will help us have more power. When will people learn, this is what
happens when you trust government to the left?
--------
BDAB, Joshua Jordan, KSC Percussa Resurgo
It's the Chicago way. What did we expect? That
Chicago politicians cease to act in that manner when they get to
Washington, DC?
===========
Habitable Zone
<http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/feb/2/5
-earth-sized-planets-spied-in-habitable-zone/?utm_
source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS>
Of course this includes the Terran arrogance
that all life is based on water...
But, look at the 'insta-poll' on the page about the
EPA. Though not scientific, at the time I checked the results it was 129-2
against the question, "
Should the Environmental Protection Agency be
authorized to impose limits unilaterally on greenhouse gas emissions?"
David Couvillon Colonel, U.S. Marine Corps Reserve,
Retired.; Former Governor of Wasit Province, Iraq; Righter of Wrongs; Wrong
most of the time; Distinguished Expert, TV remote control; Chef de Hot Dog
Excellance; Avoider of Yard Work
It has allocated that position for itself. You
can buy an exception. Apply to the DNC.
==========
Fwd: The Story of the
Egyptian Revolution [from an observer on...
Fascinating...
Notice the similarity of the description of the vacuum
of authority last Friday to the days immediately after the fall of Baghdad
in 2003.
David Couvillon Colonel, U.S. Marine Corps Reserve,
Retired.; Former Governor of Wasit Province, Iraq; Righter of Wrongs; Wrong
most of the time; Distinguished Expert, TV remote control; Chef de Hot Dog
Excellance; Avoider of Yard Work
[skip this]
A long read for sure, but probably the best synopsis
to date of the Egyptian story and situation. Take the time to read
February 02, 2011
The Story of the Egyptian Revolution *By*
*Sam Tadros*
A friend of mine in academia forwarded this
email to me from an Egyptian student whose good sense he vouches for. He
tells a story very different than that most of you are seeing on
television or reading in your papers. Unless the author gives me
permission to reveal his identity, I am not at liberty to disclose it.
[Update: The author Sam Tadros has given his pemrission to publish his
name] Clarice Feldman
**** My apologies for the length of this
article, but I see it as extremely important to tell the whole story as it
happened – and will happen. – (from this person’s viewpoint)
The Story of the Egyptian Revolution
One week ago, Egypt was a stable
authoritarian regime, prospects of change were minimal and every expert in
Washington would have betted on the endurance of its regime. Today, Egypt
is in a state of chaos. The regime, even after using its mightiest sword
is not able to control the country and the streets of Egypt are in a state
of utter lawlessness. As the world stands in awe, confusion, and worry at
the unfolding events, perhaps it is important to write the evolving story
that is happening in Egypt before any reflections can be made on them.
Contrary to pundits, it turns out that the
Egyptian regime was neither stable nor secure. The lack of its stability
is not a reflection of its weakness or lack of a resolve to oppress. It is
a reflection of its inherent contradiction to the natural desire of men to
enjoy their basic freedoms. Egyptians might not know what democracy
actually means, but that does not make the concept any less desirable.
Perhaps it is precisely its vagueness and abstraction that makes the
concept all the more desirable.
For two weeks calls were made using new
social media tools for a mass demonstration on the 25^th of January.
Observers dismissed those calls as another virtual activism that would not
result in anything. Other calls in the past had resulted in very small
public support and the demonstrations were limited to the familiar faces
of political activists numbering in the hundreds. As the day progressed,
the observers seemed to be correct in their skepticism. While the
demonstrations were certainly larger than previous ones, numbering perhaps
15,000 in Cairo, they were nothing worrisome for the regime. They were
certainly much smaller than the ones in 2003 against the Iraq War. The
police force was largely tolerating and when they decided to empty Tahrir
Square, where the demonstrators had camped for the night, it took them
less than 5 minutes to do so.
But beneath that, things were very different.
The social media tools had given people something that they had lacked
previously, an independent means of communication and propaganda. Hundreds
of thousands of young Egyptians in a matter of minutes were seeing the
demonstration videos being uploaded on youtube. For an apolitical
generation that had never shown interest in such events the demonstration
was unprecedented. More remarkable they were tremendously exaggerated. At
a moment when no more than 500 demonstrators had started gathering in that
early morning, an Egyptian opposition leader could confidently tweet that
he was leading 100,000 in Tahrir Square. And it stuck.
It should come as no surprise to anyone that
after 58 years of organized state propaganda, people would not believe for
a second the government's media machine and its coverage of the events.
Why they chose to believe the alternative propaganda needs more
explaining. People believed the twitter messages and the facebook postings
because they wanted to believe them. Tunisia had broken the barrier for
many people. It mattered not that the situation and ruling formula in
Tunisia is very different than the one in Egypt. Perceptions were more
important than reality. If the Tunisians could do it, then so could we.
With 15,000 demonstrating in Cairo, Egyptians were already texting each
other with stories of the President's son escape. The only debate being
whether Hosni Mubarak would escape to London or Saudi Arabia.
The next day the demonstrations continued
with a promise of a return on Friday the 28^th after Friday Prayers in
Mosques. The regime started panicking at this moment. This was simply
something they did not understand. Imagine for a second Mubarak's advisors
trying to explain to the 83 year old dictator what twitter is in the first
place. What was more worrying for them was that the only real force in
Egyptian politics, the Muslim Brotherhood, announced its intention of
joining the demonstrations. Suddenly they were faced with the prospect of
hundreds of thousands of demonstrators from every Mosque in the country.
They acted as every panicking authoritarian regime would act. They acted
stupidly.
The internet was cut off in Egypt. Mobile
phone companies were ordered to suspend services. With tools of
communication disrupted the regime was hopeful that they had things under
control. Simultaneously they started standard arrests of Muslim
Brotherhood leaders. Things seemed for them under control. But they
weren't. With every stupid panicking move by the regime, the narrative of
its weakness was only reinforced for the people. People saw a regime that
was scarred of the internet and they rightfully calculated that this was
their golden opportunity.
Friday was an unprecedented event in Egypt.
While it is impossible to guess the number of protestors on the streets
that day, it is safe to say that they exceeded one million. Every Mosque
was a launching site for a demonstration. The Islamists were out in full
force. The slogans that day were quite different than the previous ones.
Islamic slogans and activists were clearly visible. The security forces
were faced with wave after wave of protestors that came from every street.
In 4 hours, the security forces were collapsing.
Whether Mubarak was fully previously told
about the deteriorating situation for the previous days or whether it was
at this moment that he suddenly realized the gravity of the situation
remains unknown. One thing is sure; the regime was not prepared for this.
It is at this moment that the decision was taken to call in the army,
announce a curfew, and withdraw the security forces. In reality the army
did not deploy immediately. The troops and tanks that appeared in the
streets were the Presidential Guard units deployed in Cairo.
The army was actually still far away from
deploying in Cairo. Because no one had imagined that the situation would
totally be out of control, the level of alert of the army was never
raised. Officers were not called from their vacations and the whole top
command of the Egyptian army was actually thousands of miles away in
Washington for strategic prearranged discussions at the Pentagon.
Moreover, the plan of deployment of the army never imagined a scenario
where people would defy it. No one imagined that the army would be
required to put a tank in every street. They thought that the mere mention
of the army being called in, the sight of a few tanks, and the
announcement of the curfew, would make people immediately go home scared.
People did not.
The Egyptian army is hugely popular. This is
due to the established mythology of Egyptian politics. The army, which is
in all aspects the regime, is seen as separate by the people. The army is
viewed as clean (not like the corrupt government), efficient (they do
build bridges fast), and more importantly the heroes that defeated Israel
in 1973 (it is no use to debate that point with an Egyptian). With the
troops and tanks appearing in the streets, people actually thought the
army was on their side, whatever that might mean. With an announced
Presidential addressed that kept being delayed; Egyptians prepared
themselves for an announcement of Mubarak's resignation.
Mubarak was at a loss. The troops could not
possibly shoot people. That would not only destroy the army's reputation,
but more importantly the troops practically could not do it. These guys
after all were not trained for this. They do not have rubber bullets or
tear gas. They only have live ammunition and tanks and the thought of
actually using them in this situation was never an option. To the surprise
of the regime, people just celebrated the army's arrival and started
dancing in the streets defying the curfew. More importantly something else
was happening as well. The looting was starting.
The decision to withdraw the security forces
was a natural decision. First they were utterly exhausted and needed the
rest to regroup. Secondly, as the security forces had become the symbol of
the regime's oppression their withdrawal was seen as necessary to calm
things. Thirdly and most importantly, in the protocol of operations there
could not possibly be two forces with arms in the same street receiving
orders from two different structures of command. Even with the best of
coordination, a disaster is bound to happen.
What was not calculated however is the fact
that suddenly a vacuum was created. The security forces were withdrawn and
the army was not deployed yet. In this gap an opportunity presented itself
for everyone. The scenes were unbelievable. First there was massive anger
vented at symbols of state oppression such as the ruling party's
headquarters. More drastically, in what can only be described as
systematic targeting, police stations everywhere were attacked. Every
police station in Cairo was looted, the weapons in them stolen and then
burned. At the same time, massive looting was taking place. Even the
Egyptian Museum, which hosts some of the world's greatest heritage, was
not spared.
Saturday was indescribable. Nothing that I
write can describe the utter state of lawlessness that prevailed. Every
Egyptian prison was attacked by organized groups trying to free the
prisoners inside. In the case of the prisons holding regular criminals
this was done by their families and friends. In the case of the prisons
with the political prisoners this was done by the Islamists. Bulldozers
were used in those attacks and the weapons available from the looting of
police stations were available. Nearly all the prisons fell. The prison
forces simply could not deal with such an onslaught and no reinforcements
were available. Nearly every terrorist held in the Egyptian prisons from
those that bombed the Alexandria Church less than a month ago to the
Murderer of Anwar El Sadat was freed, the later reportedly being arrested
again tonight.
On the streets of Cairo it was the scene of a
jungle. With no law enforcement in town and the army at a loss at how to
deal with it, it was the golden opportunity for everyone. In a city that
is surrounded with slums, thousands of thieves fell on their neighboring
richer districts. People were robbed in broad daylight, houses were
invaded, and stores looted and burned. Egypt had suddenly fallen back to
the State of Nature. Panicking, people started grabbing whatever weapon
they could find and forming groups to protect their houses. As the day
progressed the street defense committees became more organized. Every
building had its men standing in front of it with everything they could
find from personal guns, knives to sticks. Women started preparing Molotov
bombs using alcohol bottles. Street committees started coordinating
themselves. Every major crossroad had now groups of citizens stopping all
passing cars checking their ID cards and searching the cars for weapons.
Machine guns were in high demand and were sold in the streets.
I do not aim to turn this into a personal
story, but those people are my friends and family. It is a personal story
to me. My neighbors were all stationed in my father-in-law's house with
men on the roof to lookout for possible attackers. A friend of mine was
shot at by a gang of thieves and another actually killed one of them to
defend his house and wife. Another friend's brother arrested 37 thieves
that day. The army's only role in all of this was to pass by each area to
pick up the arrested thieves. Army officers informed the street committees
that anyone with an illegal weapon should not worry and should use it. Any
death of one of the thieves would not be punished.
On the political front the story was
evolving. More troops were pouring into Cairo. Mubarak decided to appoint
Omar Suliman as Vice President and Ahmed Shafik as Prime Minister. Both
are military men, Suliman being the Chief of the Egyptian Intelligence
Service and Shafik being the former commander of the Air Forces. To
understand the moves one has to understand the nature of the ruling
coalition in Egypt and the role of the army in it.
The Egyptian regime has been based since 1952
on a coalition between the army and the bureaucrats. In this regard it
fits perfectly into O'Donnell's Bureaucratic Authoritarian model. The army
is fully in control of both actual power and the economy. Ex-army officers
are appointed to run state enterprises and high level administrative
positions. More importantly the army has an enormous economic arm that
runs enterprises as diverse as construction companies and food
distribution chains. In the late 90's this picture began to change.
It is no news for anyone following Egyptian
politics that Gamal Mubarak, the President's son was being groomed to
follow his father. In reality, the elder Mubarak was never fully behind
that scenario. Whether it was a real assessment of his son's capabilities
or of the acceptance of the army to such a scenario, Mubarak was hesitant.
It was his wife who was heavily pushing that scenario. Gamal, step by step
started rising inside the ruling NDP party. With him he brought two groups
to the ruling coalition. First were the Western educated economic
technocrats trained in international financial institutions they shared
what is generally described as neo-liberal economic policies labeled the
Washington Consensus. Secondly was the growing business community that was
emerging in Egypt. Together they started the process of both restructuring
the Egyptian economy and the ruling party.
For the technocrats it was the fiscal and
economic policy that was their domain and they performed miracles. The
Egyptian economy under the Nazif government showed unprecedented growth.
The currency was devalued, investment was pouring in, and exports were
growing. Even the economic crisis did not dramatically effect Egypt. The
real disaster in all of this however is that no one actually rationalized
or defended those policies to the Egyptian public. The country was moving
towards a full capitalist system but no explained why that was needed or
why it was ultimately beneficial. While such restructuring is naturally
painful for a population that was dependent on the government for all its
needs, the people were fed the same socialist rhetoric nonetheless. It
mattered very little that the country was improving economically, people
did not see that. It is not that the effects were not trickling down, they
were. It is that the people were used to the nanny state for so many years
that they could not understand why the government was no longer providing
them with those services.
Businessmen greatly benefited from the
economic improvement. Business was good and political aspirations started
to emerge for them. First it was a Parliament seat that they desired. It
offered immunity from prosecution after all. With Gamal however, they
suddenly had a higher opportunity. Gamal wanted to recreate the ruling NDP
party. The NDP, never actually a real party and more of a mass valueless
organization of state operation was suddenly turning into a real party.
Businessmen like Ahmed Ezz, the steel tycoon saw a golden opportunity.
They took full control with Gamal of the party and with it power.
The army never liked Gamal or his friends.
Gamal had never served in the military. To add insult to injury his
friends were threatening the dominance of the army. The technocrat's
neo-liberal policies were threatening the army's dominance of the closed
economy and the party was becoming step by step an actual organization
that competes with the army officers in filling administrative positions.
Suddenly the doors to power in Egypt were not a military career but a
party ID card. As long as the President was there however, the army was
silent. The army is 100% loyal to the President. He is an October War hero
and their Commander in Chief. He is seen as an Egyptian patriot by them
who has served his country well. Moreover Gamal Abdel Nasser having
conducted his own military coup in 1952 put mechanisms in the army to
ensure that no one else would do the same and remove him.
With the unfolding events the army was
finally able to put its narrative to the President and have his support
behind it. The army's narrative is that Gamal and his friends ruined it.
Their neo-liberal policies alienated people and angered them with talks of
subsidies removal, while his party gang destroyed the political system by
aiming to crush all opposition. Mubarak in the past had mastered the art
of playing the opposition. The opposition was always co-opted. Sizes in
Parliament differed in various elections, but there was always a place
there for the opposition. The last elections in 2010 were different. No
opposition was allowed to win seats. By closing the legitimate political
methods of raising grievances, the opposition chose the illegitimate ones
in the form of street demonstrations.
Today the Egyptians are scared. They have
been given a glimpse of hell and they don't like what they see. Contrary
to Al Jazeera's propaganda, the Egyptian masses are not demonstrating
anymore. (that is OBE)They are protecting their homes and families. The
demonstration last night had 5,000 political activists participating and
not 150,000 as Al Jazeera insists. At this moment, no one outside of those
political activists cares less now if the President will resign or not.
They have more important concerns now; security and food.
So where are we today? Well the answer is
still not clear, yet a couple of conclusions are evident.
1. The Gamal inheritance scenario is
finished.
2. Mubarak will not run for another
Presidential term. His term ends in October and either he will serve the
rest of his term or will resign once things cool down for health reasons,
which are real. He is dying.
3. The army is in control now. We are heading
back to the "golden age" of army rule. The "kids" are no longer in charge.
The "men' are.
4. Until the economy fails again, the
neo-liberal economic policies are over. Forget about an open economy for
some time.
Immediately the task of the army is to
stabilize the situation and enforce order. The security forces have been
ordered to reappear in the streets starting tonight. The next task will be
to deal with the political activists and the Muslim Brotherhood which now
dominates the scene. It is anyone's guess how that will be done, but in a
couple of days the Egyptians will probably be begging the army to shoot
them. Third stage will be to return to normal life again with people going
back to their jobs and somehow food being made available. Later on however
will come the political questions.
The long term challenges are numerous. First
you have a huge economic loss in terms of property destroyed. The minute
the banks will be reopened, there will be a run on them and capital flight
will be the key word in town. It is of course quite natural that for some
time no one in his sensible mind will invest in Egypt.
Politically, the army will aim at returning
to the pre-Gamal ruling formula. People will be appeased by raising
salaries and increasing subsidies with the hope of silencing them. Will it
be enough? That is doubtful. The Egyptians have realized for the first
time that the regime is not as strong as it looked a week ago. If the army
did not stop them, how will they ever be silenced? Moreover they are
greatly empowered. Egyptians today feel pride in themselves. They have
protected their neighborhoods and done what the army has failed to do.
This empowerment will not be crushed easily.
Security wise the situation is a disaster. It
might take months to arrest all those criminals again. Moreover no one has
a clue how the weapons that were stolen will ever be collected again or
how the security will ever regain its necessary respect to restore public
order after it was defeated in 4 hours. More importantly, reports indicate
that the borders in Gaza were open for the past few days. What exactly was
transferred between Gaza and Egypt is anyone's guess.
You seem to wonder after all of this where El
Baradei and the Egyptian opposition are. CNN's anointed leader of the
Egyptian Revolution must be important to the future of Egypt. Hardly!
Outside of Western media hype, El Baradei is nothing. A man that has spent
less than 30 days in the past year in Egypt and hardly any time in the
past 20 years is a nobody. It is entirely insulting to Egyptians to
suggest otherwise. The opposition you wonder? Outside of the Muslim
Brotherhood we are discussing groups that can each claim less than 5,000
actual members. With no organization, no ideas, and no leaders they are
entirely irrelevant to the discussion. It is the apolitical young
generation that has suddenly been transformed that is the real question
here.
Where Egypt will go from here is an enigma.
In a sense everything will be the same. The army that has ruled Egypt
since 1952 will continue to rule it and the country will still suffer from
a huge vacuum of ideas and real political alternatives. On the other hand,
it will never be the same again. Once empowered, the Egyptians will not
accept the status quo for long.
On the long run the Egyptian question remains
the same. Nothing has changed in that regard. It is quite remarkable for
people to be talking about the prospect for a democratic transition at
this moment. A population that was convinced just two months ago that
sharks in the Red Sea were implanted by the Israeli Intelligence Services
is hardly at a stage of creating a liberal democracy in Egypt. But the
status quo cannot be maintained. A lack of any meaningful political
discourse in the country has to be addressed. Until someone actually
starts addressing the real issues and stop the chatterbox of clichés on
democracy, things will not get better at all. It will only get worse.
[Non-text portions of
this message have been removed] [beginning of this
story]
I will add that Israel is now reminded of what
happens to those who trust the United States as allies. Ask Ngo Dinh Diem.
There are others. Mubarak was a partner in keeping the peace with Israel.
The Muslim Brotherhood will not be.
The Mamelukes are reassessing their position and
powers; we can look to the Army rather than the Party as the path to
follow for bright young men.
Note also that well under a million people have
been out in the streets. There are a lot of Egyptians who just wish things
would be stable again, preferably with more economic freedom -- as in
Spain under Francisco Franco. The Mamelukes are not ignorant of that
history.
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