Mail 713 Saturday, February 18, 2012

Sacking Bad Teachers.

Jerry,

There was an account in the New York Times of an education authority that was sacking bad teachers with the full approval of their union. Let us hope this spreads. It will, if the number of teachers who really want to teach exceeds the number of teachers who want an unexacting and well paid career with guaranteed job security. <http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/16/opinion/kristof-the-new-haven-experiment.html> <http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/16/opinion/kristof-the-new-haven-experiment.html>

Glad you’re feeling better.

John Edwards.

In Los Angeles the teachers unions have so constipated the system that it is nearly impossible to fire even a flagrantly bad teacher – and any teacher who is about to be fired is given the opportunity to resign thus keeping an retirement and sometimes other benefits. That was the case with the teacher photographed feeding cookies with his male body fluids as frosting to 3^rd grade girls. He was removed from the classroom a year ago, but was allowed to resign. He’s now under arrest by the police – but even had he been arrested and convicted before he left the district he would have been able to resign before being axed. In his case he’s likely to be getting pension in prison, but he’ll still get it.

There needs to be some way to change all this, but the courts don’t approve of laws that reform the system. It may take something more drastic than that, because the system can’t continue to support this: there just isn’t enough money no matter how you raise the taxes. Paying more to retired than to working teachers is not likely to be a successful policy.

No one wants to discuss this because the unions are powerful, particularly in Los Angeles, and they all stand together. Solidarity and all that.

The American school system is one of the major reasons for continued unemployment. It fails the bright students in favor of the just below average, and it doesn’t teach much of any use at all to the way below average. The whole system needs rethinking, beginning with abolition of big unified districts in favor of smaller districts with their own school boards, and some education of those who want to be on school boards. It’s a nightmare in much of the country and the feds make it worse.

and the iron law always applies

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204059804577227542171881120.html?mod=WSJ_Tech_LEFTTopNews

Phil

Video Game Novelizations

They actually date back to the 80s. Alan Dean Foster did I think the first one, for a game called Shadowkeep, and the Zork games has some as well, as did The Bard’s Tale (Mercedes Lackey wrote a couple, I believe for one your publishers, Baen) and Might & Magic. George Alec Effinger wrote one of the Zork novels. His wasn’t so much a novelization of the game as a sequel, but a few of the others were more faithful to the games themselves.

It kind of disappeared when Japanese video games became dominant over PC ones, but now that has reversed (Western games are far more popular), so you are seeing it once again.

Jeremy Reaban

Yes, I was an early Zork player and was once asked to write a novel set in the Flathead kingdom; but by then I was successful in my own work and didn’t need to. All long ago. It is an interesting development. But as I said earlier, I don’t dare pay much attention to games developments now; I like them too much…

Food Police

Fwiw, the Little Village Academy in Chicago (part of Chicago Public Schools, CPS) bans children from bringing lunches from home and mandates that they eat the school lunch. This was reported in the Chicago Tribune in April 2011.

"(principal Elsa Carmona), to my surprise, confirmed that she does indeed prohibit home lunches because she believes the school lunch is healthier than what she has seen kids bring on field trips"

http://newsblogs.chicagotribune.com/tribnation/2011/04/q-a-do-chicago-schools-really-ban-kids-from-bringing-lunch-to-school.html

Original Article:

"Any school that bans homemade lunches also puts more money <http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2011-04-11/news/ct-met-school-lunch-restrictions-041120110410_1_lunch-food-provider-public-school#> in the pockets of the district’s food provider, Chartwells-Thompson. The federal government pays the district for each free or reduced-price lunch taken, and the caterer receives a set fee from the district per lunch. At Little Village, most students must take the meals served in the cafeteria or go hungry or both. During a recent visit to the school, dozens of students took the lunch but threw most of it in the garbage uneaten."

http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2011-04-11/news/ct-met-school-lunch-restrictions-041120110410_1_lunch-food-provider-public-school

-R

Follow the money…

Interstate Highways

You wrote:

"When Eisenhower proposed the Interstate Highway system, it was largely proposed as part of a national defense system, and although it is forgotten now, part of the justification was the this would make it possible to build a large number of civil defense shelters…"

I don’t doubt it, and I’ve also seen it said — though honestly, the latest "authority" I’ve seen discuss it might be Lee Child in a Jack Reacher novel — that Eisenhower advocated the highways to allow large mobile army units to move rapidly within the US in the event of a war here, avoiding transportation problems he’d confronted in Europe. It’s a thought that might cross the mind of anybody familiar with the famous armored maneuvers in Louisiana before WWII, the ones where legend holds that Patton paid service station owners out of his own pocket for extra gas for his tanks.

–Mike Glyer

The Army during the 1920’s and 30’s had enormous difficulties getting units from one coast to the other, and this was imprinted deeply in most of the officers of that time. Eisenhower, an operations specialist, was very much one of them.

Highway bill

I’m willing to keep the currant federal gas tax if the federal government took over the interstate highway system from the states and used the federal gas tax solely to fund the system. An argument can be made that the interstate highway system is a federal issue.

And we can make Alaska and Hawaii happy and not charge the tax there since there are no "real" interstates in either state. Hawaii can keep and and maintain H1, H2, and H3 on its own. Same with Puerto Rico and the other unconnected islands.

Fredrik Coulter

In theory the gas taxes go into a Trust Fund that can only be spent on highways, but of course it never works quite as promised.

Real Reason For "Free" Contraception? buffy willow

Jerry,

Paul Rahe analyzes the politics of the Administration decision forcing Catholic institutions to provide contraception, agrees with your conclusion that it makes little practical sense, but goes on to say:

"This suggests that there can be only one reason why Sebelius, Pelosi, and Obama decided to proceed. They wanted to show the bishops and the Catholic laity who is boss. They wanted to make those who think contraception wrong and abortion a species of murder complicit in both.

They wanted to rub the noses of their opponents in it. They wanted to marginalize them. Humiliation was, in fact, their only aim, and malice, their motive."

Given the facts, it’s a disturbingly plausible argument. Interesting times…

Full Rahe column at

http://ricochet.com/main-feed/More-Than-a-Touch-of-Malice

sign me

Porkypine

subject: Election Coverage

Hi, Doc.

You know, it’s just occurred to me that Leftists talk about conservatism as much as atheists talk about God– i.e., more than anybody else does.

And for the same reason. They’re not engaged in disbelief– just denial.

Matthew Joseph Harrington

e pur si muove (the motto of consensus deniers since 1633)

We have a full consensus of astronomers that they Earth does not move. Stop being ridiculous.

SUBJ: David Friedman’s web site

Dear Jerry,

I suspect you already know David Friedman. However here goes anyway.

I have recently discovered the web site and associated blog of David Friedman (a/k/a "Cariadoc of the Bow" in olden SCA times – I have been using his medieval recipes cookbook for 25 years) son of Milton Friedman. His views rather remind me of yours – which is high praise indeed.

http://www.daviddfriedman.com/

http://daviddfriedman.blogspot.com/

Two items I found immediately interesting are

"Why We are Getting Smarter: A Conjectural Explanation"

http://www.daviddfriedman.com/Miscellaneous/why_getting_smarter.htm

which is reminiscent of your piece on how the Ashkenazim improved their IQ.

and the following which I’m working through now and seems an excellent read. Witty and wisdom in shirt-sleeve English.

_The Machinery of Freedom: Guide to a Radical Capitalism_ (2nd edn)

PDF file

http://www.daviddfriedman.com/The_Machinery_of_Freedom_.pdf

E-book format

http://www.daviddfriedman.com/The_Machinery_of_Freedom.prc

My sincere best wishes for a speedy recovery for you and Roberta.

Cordially,

John

Long time readers will recall that David is a very old friend whom I still see although not as often as either of us would prefer. I used to quote him often in the old BYTE column.

We’re both pretty busy. David’s Machinery of Freedom tries to give practical libertarian solutions to a number of social and economic questions. It may be about the best book on that subject in existence; David is very logical and very consistent. He remains libertarian and I conservative; both our positions are more vectors than immediate policies. He writes pretty good, too.

ADHD –

Essay in Taki’s Mag that echos many of the views expressed here. Both amusing and likely spot on. I think you’ll like it.

So I’m not convinced that “ADD” and “ADHD” are anything more than ideas. At least that’s how it seems to me at the moment. I can be persuaded otherwise, but you’ll have to be very, you know, persuasive. I suspect that what is often misdiagnosed as Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder is actually Teacher Charisma Deficit Disorder.

After ignoring these so-called attention disorders for years, I did a little research and was surprised to discover that there are no blood or DNA tests needed for a diagnosis. A standard ADHD questionnaire <http://www.simonepstein.org/questionnaire_may06.htm> is chillingly vague. You can just fidget a lot, talk a lot, maybe act a little bored, then WHAM!—they’re scrubbing your brain with amphetamines.

http://takimag.com/article/losing_interest_in_attention_deficit_disorder

Dave

I am familiar with a very real case of autism. I think autism and Aspergers are overdiagnosed, but they are very real. As to ADD and ADHD, they were pretty well unknown when I was in graduate school in psychology, and in the short period when I had a psychology practice (in connection with a pediatrician) my specialty, indeed the only thing I did, was work with bright kids who were not doing well in school. I suppose they might have “had” ADD or ADHD, but even in the 1970’s that was not a usual diagnosis, and I found all my patients more easily treated by simply helping them find things they found interesting. Most were simply bored stiff with school; when I showed how their school work might provide some foundation for much more interesting endeavors, and how they could quickly move past what was being taught to other and more interesting things, they were “cured”. I never recommended drugs (couldn’t prescribe them but the pediatrician who owned the practice certainly could) because I never saw any need for them. I also taught some techniques for self discipline which had helped with me when I was in school bored stiff.

ADD and ADHD have created big industries and there are “specialists” with a big interest in keeping them going. The psychological DSM defines them and insurance companies will pay. It may be that there are real cases of a real disorder; I haven’t made a strong systematic study; but I have never seen anything I could call a “disorder” of that kind. I did see bright bored kids. But that is all we were looking for, so that’s not science…

The DSM defines ‘disorders’ that used to be considered fairly normal but unpleasant behavior.

do not track plus

You really want this.

https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/donottrackplus/?src=search

Phil

I will repeat this in another issue of mail. Firefox users take note. You want this.

Subject: Apple vs Amazon in ereader format smackdown

“Format wars are a mixed blessing for consumers. Whether it’s Betamax versus VHS or Blu-Ray versus HD-DVD, the consumer ultimately wins because companies have to advance superior technologies. But problems arise if the format you backed loses the war – and your device becomes next year’s expensive doorstop.

A new fight is emerging in epublishing between Apple iBooks and Amazon Kindle, with skirmishes between Barnes & Noble, Kobo and others. But the real battle is between the underlying formats: EPUB 3 and KF8”

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/02/06/ereader_format_wars/

It will be interesting to see how this plays out. I love my Kindle, but I really don’t care what format it uses. What I do care about is having one or the other of these companies gaining market share control and owning the most popular format, then jacking up the price. So far, I’ve not seen that kind of attitude from Amazon, but we’ve definitely seen it from Apple at the iTunes store.

Tracy

I agree. But I suspect technology will take care of this. Microsoft got rich setting standards. I expect Amazon will discover that secret. Amazon loses money on sales of the physical Kindle, so I would presume encourages apps that let Kindle books be read on other devices.

Volcanoes, rather than the Maunder Minimum, may have triggered the Little Ice Age?

New evidence (followed by modeling verification) on the origin and development of the Little Ice Age..

http://arstechnica.com/science/news/2012/02/eruptions-not-quiet-sun-may-have-triggered-little-ice-age.ars

Best,

Jon

And the battle of the models continues. We know that volcanoes can have dramatic climate effects.

Subject: Prevention and treatment of colds-zinc seems to work based on the Cochran reports (contains link to full Cochran report)

Dear Jerry,

You seem to be suffering from too many colds (one is too many for me). I read the Cochran analysis of Zinc for prevention and treatment of colds and they concluded that it seems to work to either fend off a cold and to reduce the duration and symptoms of a cold. The possible mechanism may be somehow affecting the ability of the virus to spread to other cells. Cochran did comment that the exact dose and frequency is not known as different studies used different doses. See information below.

However, Zicam and Cold-EEze have sprays, lozenges etc. CVS and Rite-Aid have generics. I have not had a cold in a year despite frequent travel and the last cold I had was very short and mild. This is not dispositive but it does seem to work.

One drawback is the zinc gluconate changes your sensation of taste for about 30 minutes to an hour after using and some people are more sensitive to this than others. I just avoid taking it before eating.

I hope this helps.

–

Kind regards,

Michael

Michael Montgomery, MD

Zinc for the common cold http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/14651858.CD001364.pub3/abstract;jsessionid=04E9C275F5D2808A2CDD6E3594406413.d02t02

I haven’t done this and I should. I hadn’t heard that these zinc based potions were useful for shortening symptoms after you already have the cold; and I didn’t see this when it first came in because, well, because I wasn’t up to reading my mail as closely as I should have been.

I’m getting over this mess, and I’m about to go out and buy a lock for the barn door for future… Thanks. I gather the CVS generic will do?

Education?

Dr. Pournelle,

I tried calling in to Sec. Bennett’s morning talk show some time ago. The subject was the benefit and correctness of "No Child Left Behind", more aptly teach to the lowest common denominator. He and his guest really did think that all children could utilize a college prep education. Maybe something to do with his education business, but I couldn’t believe that someone as intelligent as Bill Bennett didn’t believe that there was a distribution of talents and native intellect, and that some people were better as well as happier in "menial" jobs. I don’t know about you, but when my car is not working correctly or my A/C is on the fritz during a Texas summer I value the skills of a good technician at least as much as someone with a college education in sociology or Poli. Sci. How is it that we have lost the vision that our society necessarily contains a spectrum of jobs, skills, interests, and abilities that are not always tied to a college education? How is it that people that hold these "lesser" jobs get patronized by "upper" classes? I don’t want to go back to an agrarian/skilled labor economy of the 18th/19th century but I sure wish people still carried a similar mindset. How do we best protect economic mobility (beside cheap energy and reduced governmental interference) and individual liberty? I would be curious to know who you would consider a good read on this. Von Mises seems a good starting point, but who else do you think is authoritative on true capitalism?

Get over your cold soon. I need you to finish last installment of Janissaries as well as getting ‘Anvil’ published.

Douglas Lewis

A nation that has no use for half its citizens cannot survive. A great number of the ‘services’ now done by bureaucracies were taken care of by volunteer – what Tocqueville called ‘the associations’ through most of the life of the Republic.

That was one way to allow citizens in boring jobs and dull occupations to feel valuable to the community – there WERE valuable to the community. That is one reason for chopping back on government. Paying people to be unionized stupid is probably not a good thing for a Republic.

Making productive people more productive is an honorable job. That means helping them. We need to change our views about domestic service. I note that the TV sitcoms are beginning to do that.

Mail 713 Friday, February 17, 2012

3D Printing

Report from the Legions

Snopes

Kaiser

Space Access

and much more

Printed jaw lets woman swallow again

Jerry

We knew 3D printing was coming. And now it’s officially here. An 83-year-old woman was given a replacement mandible from a 3D printer. She becomes the first patient ever to be fitted with a printed lower jaw:

http://www.reghardware.com/2012/02/06/3d_printed_jaw_replacement_helps_grandmother_eat_again/print.html

I wonder how soon we’ll see 3D printers making scaffolding for cells, so new hearts and such can simply be built. Avoid the ‘Gift From Earth’ phenomenon.

Ed

The advance of 3D printing to become what Minsky postulated as a “Thingmaker” back in 1975 is astonishing. And it continues. Moreover, the printed plastic model can be used to make a mold which can be used for casting the object in metal or other such media. The potential is enormous.

‘What I saw bore no resemblance to rosy official statements by U.S. military leaders about conditions on the ground.’

<http://armedforcesjournal.com/2012/02/8904030>

Roland Dobbins

Yeah.

Snopes

– I am curious about your "Snopes has agendas I do not share" comment. Can you elaborate? I respect you, and I respect Snopes, or at least I did.

M

Nothing special. They take a pretty standard media liberal view when there is any political controversy, and they will sometimes certify as "fact" things that are political assertions, and seem to have a far higher standard of "fact’ when the assertion is conservative while assuming the truth of Keynsian economics and such.

They’re ok on a lot of stuff, and serve a useful purpose, but they do have an agenda one should be aware of. I’m not slamming them. There are far worse “fact checking” outfits that are simply arms of one political view.

"The danger is that there’ll be winners …"

Dr. Pournelle –

I came across this today and thought it made a good point about "dumbing down" public schools.

Dumbing down of state education has made Britain more unequal than 25 years ago http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/9082053/Dumbing-down-of-state-education-has-made-Britain-more-unequal-than-25-years-ago.html

"Thanks to the wholesale dumbing down of state education, Britain is now more unequal than it was 25 years ago. The progressive custodians of public education have succeeded in entrenching poverty and preserving privilege – all in the name of equality. As an illustration of the law of unintended consequences, it could not be bettered. "

Pieter

The same is true in the United States. We are developing full caste systems. Those who can try to send their children to private schools to shield them from the horror. And the beat goes on.

Kaiser

Dr. Pournelle-

I pretty much grew up with Kaiser, beginning ca 1954, and in my young adulthood I had a similar vision of turning all healthcare in the country over to them. Later, geographical considerations meant that we couldn’t participate with Kaiser, but my opinion remained unchanged.

When Kaiser opened a hospital locally and again became an option, through my wife’s work, we went back to it. However, through the circumstances of their taking in a very large increase in new membership locally and a rather insensitive administrator, we found our experience quite different than expected and we left as soon as possible. More recently we have returned and are well satisfied now that local growing pains have apparently passed. So, yes, scaling up rapidly would present a considerable challenge.

Paul

We have received a number of views of Kaiser, mostly positive.

Kaiser’s not the panacea

Dr. Pournelle:

I agree that Kaiser-Permanente can offer fine health care . . . if they want you.

I was a Kaiser client for almost 40 years: under my father’s employer we were one of the first families covered when K-P first expanded into Cleveland. I chose K-P when I entered the workforce, then under my wife’s coverage when another employer of mine did not offer its plan.

Later, when she changed employers and was not offered its plan, we were so satisfied with it’s preventive-care that we tried to get individual coverage which we would pay ourselves. After decades of "customer" loyalty, we were told that because we were now trying to join as individuals wth the pre-existing conditions — that Kaiser had diagnosed — they would not offer us coverage.

We are now covered by United Healthcare as the insurer from my wife’s employer and receive healthcare through the Cleveland Clinic Foundation. We find both the care and insurance to be more flexible and somewhat better than K-P.

This isn’t sour grapes, since my father, until his death, had K-P coverage and received excellent and comprehensive treatment. It’s just well to remember that K-P is a business, like other health insurers, and will only cover young healthy people unless you are part of group coverage.

Pete Nofel

"It ain’t fair? Hey pal, ‘fair’ is where you buy funnel cakes."

I am told that the Kaiser organization is different in different places, and I can only say that my experience with the Southern California Kaiser including San Diego and Lancaster has been positive. What most impresses me is that the personnel have been almost universally cheerful, polite, and helpful, and generally competent; and I am pretty familiar with clinical procedures. As to their selectivity, we tried for years to get on with Kaiser before an enrollment opportunity opened up in the 1980’s. At the time we had the four boys as well as Roberta and me. We were accepted and have been there ever since. Given my medical history I am sure I would not be acceptable to any insurance program now, so I am very careful to keep up my copayments and the minimal dues we owe on Medicare Advantage.

Without Kaiser we would probably be dead; I doubt I could afford the treatments I have needed. I also note that they do a pretty good job of using technology to reduce costs and increase productivity, and their preventive medicine courses have proven to be useful – I took the diabetes course with a rather cynical attitude, but I was won over. I learned a good bit and, as Dr. Johnson observed, where I may not have needed education I certainly needed reminding. All my experience has been with Southern California, but after thirty years of my wife and myself, and over a decade of having the boys under the Kaiser system, I have no real complaints, and my few suggestions having to do with small computers and records management have either been adopted or done better.

As to finding a group, that has always been a real problem for free lance writers. Various writer organizations have tried to form medical coverage groups; Science Fiction Writers of America tried over the years starting with before I was President in the 70’s; we never got a large enough group to be of much interest to anyone. The United States system is geared to employer-provided medical insurance. We went from employer to individual memberships by way of COBRA, which was costly, but we thought worth it.

Supreme Court

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/02/supreme-court-justice-robbed-by-machete-weilding-intruder-in-carribean/

Wonder if he is a conservative now?

A Conservative is a Liberal who has been mugged.

A Liberal is a Conservative who has been harassed by the police.

“Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer was robbed at knife point in his vacation home on the Caribbean island of Nevis Feb. 9,  according to a court spokeswoman, although he’s not the first Supreme Court  justice become a victim of crime. In 2004, Justice David Souter was mugged while jogging, and in 1966, Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg had her purse snatched.

“Breyer was with his wife,  Joanna Breyer, and guests when an intruder armed with a machete broke into their  home. The intruder  took $1,000 but no one was hurt.” [snip]

B

Reality does have a way of changing one’s opinions. Into each reign some life must fall…

McMartin Case

Jerry,

I lived in Manhattan Beach during the McMartin case hysteria. It got so bad that I made a decision that if I was alone and children approached me, I would beat a hasty retreat.

In retrospect, even two adults approached by a group of children could still have been caught up in the hysteria of the day.

I hope to never have to live in an atmosphere like that again.

Regards, Charles Adams, Bellevue, NE

The great child molestation terror extended far beyond Southern California. There was reputed to be a circle of witches and ritual molestations in the State of Washington and a number of people were harassed and jailed over what turned out to be allegations of crimes of which there was no proof other than the allegation. The same happened in New England.

For a long time the voodoo sciences held that children just couldn’t make up stories of being sexually molested, and they often wouldn’t tell you if they had been. This led to “professionals” going over and over stories and gestures and suggestions and imputations until the kids figured out what the adult “professional” wanted the child to say; whereupon lives were ruined. In the McMartin case it got to the point where the police seriously investigated reports of dead horses buried on the school grounds, and it was seriously believed that teachers in the schools transported the children to Forest Lawn Cemetary – in Glendale – from Manhattan Beach, there to witness burials and funerals to show them what would happen to them if they told. Since the children seemed to be terrified, this was taken to be, if not true, then significant. Years later the children, now grown, said that all this was suggested to them by the social workers, and the kids wanted to get out of the interrogation rooms. Videos of some of the sessions showed interrogation techniques that would have been illegal if used on adults. The only way out of the endless harassment was to tell the social workers something awful about someone; when the children realized that, some of them made up stories, often really awful stories.

The witch hunts went on for years, and resulted in union rules for teachers that made it nearly impossible to fire a teacher based on child accusations, and almost impossible even when there was physical evidence. And, as I have said here before, one case came apart when the defense lawyer was able to get one of the accusing children to “remember” being abused by the judge presiding in the case, when the judge had never seen the child before the case came to trial. Over time the with hunts abated, but a number of lives were destroyed in the process –

And after the era of wild accusations, it became more difficult to save children from genuine child molestors, who became quite clever in their techniques. It remains a challenge to our judicial system. The rise of DNA evidence has simplified some of this, of course.

Space Access ’12 Conference – April 12-14 – Phoenix Arizona

SA ’12 will be the next round of Space Access Society’s long-running annual get-together for people seriously interested in the technology, business, and politics of radically cheaper space transportation.

Conference location is the Grace Inn, 10831 South 51st Street, Phoenix, AZ. (For room reservations, call 800 843-6010 or 480 893-3000, and mention "space access" to get our discount $69/night breakfast-included

rate.)

Conference registration is $120 in advance, $140 at the door, student

rate $40 either way. We’re not set up to accept credit cards in

advance – for advance registration you need to paper-mail us a check or money order. Include your name, the affiliation (if any) you want listed on your badge, and your email address. Make the check out to "Space Access ’12", and mail it to Space Access ’12, PO Box 16034, Phoenix AZ 85011.

Confirmed Presentations as of 2/18/12

Altius Space Machines/Jon Goff

Armadillo Aerospace

Matt Cannella, student, "HySoR Hybrid Sounding Rocket"

Commercial Spaceflight Federation

FAA AST

Frontier Astronautics/Timothy Bendel

Jeff Foust

Garvey Space

JP Aerospace/John Powell

Lasermotive/Jordin Kare

Liftport

Clark Lindsey

mv2space/Max Vozoff

NASA Ames/Bruce Pittman, "Barriers And Opportunities For Reusable Launch Vehicles"

NASA OCT/Dr. Lagudava Kubendran

NextGen Space/Charles Miller

Panel: Newspace Lessons Learned – Gary Hudson, Henry Spencer, Henry Vanderbilt Team Phoenicia/Will Baird Space Frontier Foundation/Ryan McLinko Space Studies Institute/Gary Hudson, President Speedup/Robert Steinke Henry Spencer, "Beyond Chemical Rockets: Overview and Near-Term Options"

and "Lessons From Smallsats for Small Launchers"

Stratofox Aerospace Tracking & Recovery Team/Ian Kluft United Launch Alliance/Frank Zegler Unreasonable Rocket/Paul Breed Ventions/Adam London XCOR Aerospace/Mark Street

Stay tuned to http://www.space-access.org for more as we fill out the

SA’12 program.

I always enjoy the Space Access conferences. I haven’t been to one in a while, and it doesn’t look like I’ll get to this one, but if you’re interested in the subject it’s one of the better conferences to go to. Learn what is going on in private space…

Epic Film

I am not sure if you’ve seen Excalibur: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NOqlV4Le9Tk

It was made in 1981; it is an epic film with Shakespearean actors — you would probably recognize many of them, and I am sure you will note Patrick Stewart. This film is more than a film; like many films it contains symbolism from the mystery schools and underlying patterns for the initiate. I highly recommend it.

—–

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

I saw Excalibur when it was first run, and I have seen it several times since. It does a very good job with the Arthurian legend, which is one of my favorite stories.

Women in combat —

I read many years ago the account of a Marine unit in Desert Storm that marched a long way with heavy packs in a short time and then fought – and defeated – an entrenched unit of Revolutionary Guards. The exact figures – distance, time and load – have flown from my memory and may have been exaggerated anyway. The point is that any male Marine would have been expected to be able to do that.

The Corps can take any young man who is not physically disqualified – meaning most any average young man – and turn him into a Marine who can do that kind of thing. There are, no doubt, some women who can be so trained, but no one suggests that the average woman can, no matter how healthy and fit.

Richard White

Austin, Texas

–

"One of the penalties for refusing to participate in politics is that you end up being governed by your inferiors."

–Plato

I find it curious that it is a matter of equality and equity that women be considered by fiat fit for any military position that a man can hold. We don’t often think of men as having a right to conceive and bear children. My daughter was a very good intelligence officer, but she will be the first to tell you she wasn’t up to many of the field exercises of line combat units. Why should she be? But she could run a Hawk company well enough.

Unemployment

In reference to the question of what claim an unemployed person has on the income of other people, it might be relevant to note the difference between base unemployment benefits and extended unemployment benefits. For at least the base period the term used is unemployment insurance (UI). Here in for 2011 Ohio, as in most states, the employer pays a tax {premium) equal to between 0.7% to 9.6% based on the unemployment experience of their employees of the first $9,000 in wages for each employee. Also there is a Federal Unemployment Tax Act (FUCA) tax of 6.2% (6.0% after 7/1/2011) on the first $7000. of each employees wages. The FUCA payments can be reduced from 6.2%(6.0%) by a credit of up to 5.4% if the employee has timely pay his state unemployment taxes and the State has not borrowed money from the Federal government unemployment trust fund. Currently employers 21 states have the credit available reduced from between 0.3% to 0.9% since they owe the federal unemployment fund.

In good times the Federal and state unemployment taxes tend to bring on a surplus, and there is usually political pressure from businesses to reduce the unemployment tax rate rather then build up a surplus for poor economic times. In bad economic times the funds run a deficit and often require the states to borrow form the federal trust fund.

The states generally set the maximum weeks of coverage usually between 24 and 26 weeks based on employment history and the benefit amounts. Normally being terminated for cause, quitting or being involved in a labor dispute would make a person ineligible for benefits. In Ohio, the benefits are set at 50% of earning up to $400 per week with no dependents and $529 per week with 3 dependents. So even given the fact that unemployed person does not have to pay Social Security and Medicare on these payments, he is going to see reduction of about 40% in his income. Probably the person is going to have to dip into his savings or reduce his life style by cutting expenses. That would not encourage lingering in the system.

The programs are involuntary in the same way that Social Security and Medicare taxes are involuntary. While the employer pays the tax, like the employer part of the Social Security and Medicare taxes, economists generally treat these costs as being borne by the employee, since the employer reduces what he is willing to pay in wages to the employee.

In this insurance sense, the unemployed has a claim in the same way someone would if he paid his fire and hazard insurance premiums, and then his house was destroyed. Of course, there is room to disagree on whether unemployment insurance should be an involuntary program. However, the base program is managed mainly by the states and backed up by the federal government. This is opposed as to Social Security and Medicare that are Federal programs.

Unemployment benefits and taxes tend to help automatically stabilize the economic. In good times as wages raise, they take additionally money out of the system help keeping inflation in control and keeping the economy from overheating. In poor times as wages drop the taxes drop, and as unemployment increases benefits feed money into the economy helping to stimulate the system. All without Congress or any state legislatures having to take action.

Now the federal extended benefits that can last up to 52 or even 99 weeks are a difference matter. Those cannot be considered insurance, and it would be a stretch to claim any entitlement to receive them. The base design of the system does not coverage the cost of those extra benefits. The extended benefits should be considered more of a economic stimulus measure trying to improve the economy. One way the costs could be covered by increased FUCA and state taxes on employers after the economic downturn ends. Similar to the way insurance premiums on homes might increase after a region has suffered a natural disaster. This would maintain more of an insurance aspect. Or they could be covered by general federal tax receipts similar to the way a natural disaster might be handled. This would make it more of an emergency response to a economic disaster. Political arguments of course can be made over the necessity of a stimulus and the correct form. Keynes once argued that paying to bury jars of money and letting people dig them up or get paid to dig them up would be a good a stimulus system as any other.

If you grant that economic stimulus is necessary, the extended unemployment benefits do take advantage of an existing system to distribute the money so a new bureaucracy does not have to be created. It also passes the money to people that are likely to need to spend the money on goods and services creating additional demand rather than to someone who would save the money or pay down existing debts. On the negative side, it may keep people unemployed longer than they normally would be as they might continue to hold out for higher paying jobs instead of taking a lower paying job that might be available. The 40% cut in income while on benefits may help to minimize this.

Kenneth Klute

Unemployment insurance is entirely different from “extended” unemployment benefits. Winston Churchill was a strong advocate of “insurance, insurance, insurance” as have been many conservative theorists and politicians. That kind of insurance is a form of compulsory savings of course, and is often rejected by many libertarians as an interference with freedom of action, but the notion of unemployment insurance is sound enough.

The big problem is that as productivity goes up, the need for unskilled labor falls. Since this is not Lake Wobegon, half our children are below average. Jobs for the below average become more scarce. One traditional job for the dull normal members of the population is personal domestic service – making life easier for the employed and productive (as well as for the idle rich). We have built a number of social restrictions on domestic service as a career. Given the way the economy and technology are going, we may well have to rethink that.

I would think it more dignified to be a scullery maid than simply to be on the dole. Clearly that is not a majority opinion.

poverty and unemployment

Dear Dr Pournelle,

I was astonishingly moved by the clarity and straightforwardness of your discussion of poverty and unemployment. Yes, if you make something easier or more profitable, then all else equal you will have more of it, and conversely. How is it that so many people fail to see that? I’ve always been inclined to give my liberal friends a break and assume that they are thinking with their hearts and not their brains, but what about those in positions of responsibility, who one would think would have reality rubbed in their faces every day?

It saddens me to wonder if they *do* see it, but cynically pretend they don’t because keeping the populace dependent enhances their own importance. This thought smacks of paranoia, and I hate it, but how else to explain their ongoing blindness? Our leaders are not stupid people, but if they were sincere about public service they would surely not act the way they do.

David Wall

One of the characteristics of Gnosticism is that Gnostics – such as American Liberals and American neo-conservatives – insist that they be judged on their intentions, not on the results of their policies.

Regulated Insurance Benefits =/= Entitlements….

Your commentary,

The position he “retreated” to allows him to mandate that insurance companies must now provide free contraception to anyone who asks for it. No copayment, no increase in premium: just free. Of course this is going to be challenged, but the President has just asserted a right to command private companies to give out entitlements. Women can demand The Pill.

Isn’t quite accurate, is it. We’re not talking about, as you say, "anyone who asks for it", we’re talking about premium paying insured customers, being assured of a minimum benefit.

I’m sure you understand that *ALL* insurance companies are regulated, and it’s confusing why this particular regulation would be of any interest, other than to those who would interject themselves in the *private* relationship between a patient and their physician. And I’m kind of tired of the busy-bodies who think that other people’s healthcare is their business. I believe in the past, the common reaction would be to tell them to "Mind their own business", but today we put them on TV…

Regards,

Mike Lieman

Come now. If I say that I am an insurance customer and therefore I am entitled to a whole bunch of benefits that were not in the package I bought, or that you cover some conditions that you specifically exempted when I bought the policy, and that you do not raise the premium nor drop me, how is that not demanding a gift? As to minding one’s own business, I am with you in spades, but tell me, when I am taxed to pay for the benefits has it not become my business?

Of course insurance companies are and should be regulated, but when they are told what premiums to charge for which service and who must be admitted, that is no longer insurance regulation.

Subsidizing Behavior

Has anyone evaluated the cost of the behavior subsidy against smoking? I imagine that the pension overhang that threatens almost every big public and private employer has been impacted by the legions of Americans that have quit or never started smoking cigarettes.

P.S. Love your "fiction".

scott brown

We have not got that cynical yet, have we? Clearly if we gave booze and cigarettes away at the fire stations, we would have fewer people live to old age and thus fewer to support in their last years; but I do not think we have got there yet. When we do get to that point, I doubt we will go to the expense of providing them the means for self destruction. There will be more direct action.

Dr Pournelle,

Regarding “this respiratory thing that is so severe I don’t want to call it a cold, but I don’t have a better name”, Ogden Nash’s Common Cold comes to mind:

A common cold, gadzooks, forsooth!

Ah, yes. And Lincoln was jostled by Booth;

Don Juan was a budding gallant,

And Shakespeare’s plays show signs of talent;

The Arctic winter is fairly coolish,

And your diagnosis is fairly foolish.

Oh what a derision history holds

For the man who belittled the Cold of Colds!

Wishing you a speedy recovery,

—Joel Salomon

Thanks

‘I don’t claim that I know precisely whether the sun is responsible for a 40, 50 or 60 percent share of global warming. But it’s nonsense for the IPCC to claim that the sun has nothing to do with it.’

<http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,druck-813814,00.html>

——

Roland Dobbins

Precisely. I do not know why it was warmer in the Viking period, or why it got colder after 1300, or why the current warming from 1800 took place, but it is pretty clear that the IPCC doesn’t know either, which is why some of the IPCC leaders tried to hide the Medieval Warm period. Their models don’t allow it to have happened.

What Did People Do in a Medieval City?

<http://www.svincent.com/MagicJar/Economics/MedievalOccupations.html>

Roland Dobbins

Cool!

Cool Idea

Jerry–

You and I have corresponded on updating the story in some of your classics (like Lucifer’s Hammer)…Cringely has a great idea (link below); allow the original and update to exist side by side in the eFormat! Considering I own a copy of the Hammer (about a 1980 paperback edition, purchased for $1.69 at a used book store), and just bought it (again) in Kindle format…You could now easily give it a tune-up: Russians still work; the venerable International Harvester TravelAll probably gets updated to be an Explorer, Durango, or Suburban; IBM Printouts on desks get turned into *something else*– especially since I believe my 22 year old son (who loved the book, btw) probably has no idea of what a fan-fold green-bar print out looks like, so the mental image is lost on that generation.

Again, my kudo’s for an exceptional book, that I continue to enjoy in multiple formats!

http://www.cringely.com/2012/02/what-the-dickens-accidental-empires-rebooted/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+ICringely+%28I%2C+Cringely%29&utm_content=Google+Feedfetcher

Steve Walbrun

Thanks for the kind words. Alas we have no plans at all to update Hammer; it stands as written. I just reread it and it is still a pretty good story. Think of it as alternate history…