| Tuesday, May
8, 2007
The Crisis in Turkey Turkey has
long been an ally of the United States, and is the closest thing Israel has
to an ally in the Eastern Mediterranean region. The current constitutional
crisis has long-reaching implications in the current cultural wars.
Turkey is a curious land, a blend of a modern secular state integrated with
a medieval fundamentalist Muslim nation. The secular-religious divisions are
more important in Turkey than religious or even ethnic divisions.
Modern Turkey was created by Mustapha Kemal known as
Kemal Ataturk, a general under the old
monarchy who abolished the Sultanate, decreed a secular state, and became
the founder of the modern nation. He outlawed Moslem dress including wearing
the Fez (that odd hat that Shriners like) and
burka, and set the
Turkish Army as the protector of the constitution. The officer corps became
a brotherhood devoted to that end, and Turkish enlisted personnel are
educated to that belief. The army guards the constitution. So
far this is hardly new; Aristotle and Plato describe "rule of honor" which
in practice is rule by the officer corps, and rule by military junta is
common in history. It may start as protection of a constitution or a form of
government, but the temptation to run things is great, and soon the military
has its nose in everyone's affairs. Startlingly that has not happened in
Turkey. Since Ataturk the Army has intervened in political affairs. It has
hanged prime ministers and jailed corrupt politicians. It then retires to
barracks and allows new politicians to govern. The result has been
remarkably successful. Turks enjoy considerable freedoms and liberties that
are unusual in neighboring countries. The new rise of Islam
did not neglect Turkey, and Islamists hold a majority of seats in the
Turkish Parliament. This makes the Army nervous, but so far it has not
interfered. Now, however, the Parliament wants to promote an Islamist to the
Presidency. The President of Turkey is Chief of State, Commander in Chief of
the Army, and holds the powers of veto and judicial appointment. He does not
otherwise participate in government -- that is the business of the prime
minister -- but the position is one key to the surprising development of the
Army as protector of the constitution without constant interference in
political affairs. That is what is at stake in the current constitutional
crisis: will an Islamist become President? The Army is not going to let that
happen. Alas, every time the Army must come out of barracks and interfere
with government, there is a new temptation to do more: to actually govern.
This is a powerful temptation, and one that must be resisted -- has been
resisted since the days of Ataturk. None of this is
particularly new, and need not be an actual crisis, except that Turkey has
applied for entry into the European Union. In my judgment that would be a
terrible thing for both the EU and Turkey, but I quickly add that I haven't
done a serious analysis, and I start with extreme prejudice against the
bureaucratic state being created in Brussels by unelected civil "servants"
who have become a new aristocracy that will soon be hereditary. (That is,
bureaucrats send their children to the right schools, promote each other and
each others children, and so forth: offices are not hereditary, but
positions in the civil service might as well be; this always happens.
Pournelle's Iron Law of Bureaucracy always prevails.)
Worse than importing a million pages of bureaucratic regulations -- I am not
making that up -- would be the Jacobin notion that Turkey must get rid of
the Army's interference in political affairs and cease to be the guardian of
the secularist constitution. For reasons beyond my ken, the EU bureaucrats
actually welcome the notion of including a non-secular -- i.e. an Islamist
-- nation within the EU. The result of doing that is predictable.
The new President of France has indicated that he does not want Turkey in
the EU -- a triumph of actual politics over the EU bureaucrats -- and that
should have an effect. The Turkish Army, now aware that nothing it can do
will gain it admission to the EU, is free to act according to the pact they
have all sworn to themselves and the memory of Kemal Ataturk. I suspect it
will now do so. ====== I suppose I am now
repudiating all possible chances of an academic appointment:
http://forum.isi.org/eve/forums/a/tpc/f/3830054552/m/6780060092
That is George Washington's Thanksgiving proclamation.
Sending it out is getting a tenured professor fired because
some liberals just can't stand it. In this land of the free.
We sow the wind.
Subject: Bifurcating and withdrawing from Iraq
Classification: UNCLASSIFIED
Dr. Pournelle,
While I do not advocate withdrawing from Iraq, I think
we should examine the implications of how to do so. While I do not often
agree with Senator Biden, it seems he is the most responsible of his party
to describe how to honorably withdraw (his words not mine) by following the
Balkans strategy and separate the combatants. I've read of troubles in the
Balkans regarding Kosovo. I would like to hear what your readers have to say
on the subject. I would like to know not only your reader's thoughts
implications/feasibility in Iraq but the implications on the larger
landscape. While I have my own theories I am interested in reading with an
open mind.
Serving Officer
I don't think we CAN separate the combatants; and if we do,
it will be called "ethnic cleansing" and in fact will be indistinguishable
from ethnic cleansing except that we won't be involved with rape as one of
the methods. Central Iraq doesn't separate neatly; one reason
is Saddam's Arabification program which was intended to mix ethnicities and
confessions. And there remains the problem of Turkey and the Kurds. We
cannot keep both as allies. Finally there is the question of
sharing of oil revenue. No entity in Iraq can be trusted with this. It would
have to be done by an American proconsul or some commission for executing
the office of proconsul. If we could manage to get oil
pumping we would have money to hire Iraqi soldiers at damned good pay rates;
we could then hire others as civilian reconstruction workers. Things go
better when there is plenty of money. But so far we have not been able to
pump oil. ======== Possibly relevant:
"Allah will take care of your wife and kids."
http://www.wnbc.com/news/13274813/detail.html?dl=mainclick
- Roland Dobbins
Will this sort of thing be more or less likely if we
withdraw from Iraq? ============ It is pollen
season in LA. I am now dependent on my nose pump; without it I don't think I
could function.
=== Outlook has taken to stealing focus: mail
comes in and I suddenly find myself in Outlook rather than Front Page. This
is brand new and must have come from some update. Piggy old Outlook is
really giving me pig fits.
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